MIGRATION TRENDS & METHODS TO

MEASURE MIGRATION TRENDS IN

INDIA
ELEMENTS OF GEOLOGY AND SETTLEMENT
GEOGRAPHY

SUBMITTED BY:
T.S.GURU RAJA
14011BA030

SUBMITTED TO: Mrs. TUHINA SINHA

Migration as a Demographic Component:
Migration is a demographic component that determine the size, growth, distribution and
composition of population.
Migration – Migration is a movement from one geographical area to another geographical area
crossing the administrative boundaries for permanent or semi permanent residence. The
starting place is known “place of origin” whilst the ending place is called ‘place of destination’.
Forms of migration:
Forms of Internal Migration: External or International migration:
Rural to Urban (Rural – urban migration) Developing country to Developed
Urban to Rural (Urban – rural migration) Developing to Developing country
Rural to Rural (Inter- rural migration) Developed to Developing country
Urban to Urban (Inter – urban migration) Developed to developed country
Classification of Migration & Migrants:
 Life – time migration (The place of birth is different from place of residence).
Recent – migration (The place of current residence is different from the place of previous
residence)
POB Method id the way of deriving the life – time migration or ever migration.
A cross – tabulation of Previous versus current residence is the way of deriving the recent
migration.
Mass migration, force migration, return migration, labour migration are the other groups
of categories of migration.
More than two-thirds (69 percent) of India’s 1.21 billion people live in rural areas, according to the 2011 Census of India, but
the country is rapidly urbanizing. The cities of Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata are all among the world’s top ten most populous
urban areas, and India has 25 of the 100 fastest-growing cities worldwide.

A significant source of this growth is rural-to-urban migration, as an increasing number of people do not find sufficient
economic opportunities in rural areas and move instead to towns and cities. Provisional 2011 census data show that for the
first time, India’s urban population has grown faster than its rural population since the last census.

In 2007-08, the National Sample Survey measured the migration rate (the proportion of migrants in the population) in
urban areas at 35 percent. In addition to migration, natural population increase and the inclusion in census data of newly-
defined urban areas also account for some of this urban growth.

The 2001 Census counted about 191 million people—or 19 percent of the total Indian population at the time—as internal
migrants who had moved long distances to other districts or other Indian states. About 70 percent of all internal migrants
are women, and marriage is the primary reason for female migration, accounting for 91 percent of rural female migrations
and 61 percent of urban female migrations. By contrast, men migrate mostly for employment-related reasons. Fifty-six
percent of urban male migrants move in search of employment. Other top reasons for migration among Indian men (often
with other members of the household) include family, business, and education.

Internal migrants have widely varying degrees of education, income levels, and skills, and varying profiles in terms of caste,
religion, family composition, age, and other characteristics. National-level data that identify trends in these features are not
available.

And most labor migrants are employed in a few key subsectors, including construction, domestic work, textile and brick
manufacturing, transportation, mining and quarrying, and agriculture.
 NUMBER OF MIGRANTS BY PLACE OF LAST
RESIDENCE – INDIA 2001
Category Migrations by Place of birth Percentage

A. Total Population 1,028,610,328

B. Total Migrations 307,149,736 29.9
B.1 Migrants within the state of enumeration 258,641,103 84.2
B.11 Migrants from within the districts 181,799,637 70.3
B.12 Migrants from other districts of the state 76,841,466 29.7
B.2 Migrants from other states in India 42,341,703 13.8
B.3 Migrants from other countries 6,166,930 2.0
Source : Table D1 India, Census of India 2001.

NUMBER OF MIGRANTS BY PLACE OF BIRTH –

INDIA 2001

Category Migrations by Place of Last Residence Percentage

A. Total Population 1,028,610,328

B. Total Migrations 314,541,350 30.6

B.1 Migrants within the state of enumeration 268,219,260 85.3

B.11 Migrants from within the districts 193,592,938 72.2

B.12 Migrants from other districts of the state 74,626,322 17.8

B.2 Migrants from other states in India 41,166,265 13.1

B.3 Migrants from other countries 5,155,423 1.6

 NUMBER OF INTRA-STATE AND INTER-STATE MIGRANTS IN THE COUNTRY (DURATION OF RESIDENCE 0-9 YEARS)
BY RURAL URBAN STATUS – INDIA 2001BY RURAL URBAN STATUS – INDIA 2001

Rural Urban status of Rural unban status of place of enumeration

place of last residence
Total Rural Urban
Total 97,560,320 61,428,374 36,131,946

Rural 73,949,607 53,354,376 20,595,231

Urban 20,655,277 6,266,503 14,388,774

Unclassified 2,955,436 1,807,495 1,147,941

Source : Census of India 2001

REASONS FOR MIGRATION OF MIGRANTS BY LAST RESIDENCE WITH DURATION (0-9 YEARS) INDIA 2001
Reason for
Number of Migrants Percentage to Migrants
migrations
Persons Males Females Persons Males Females

Total migrants 98,301,342 32,896,986 65,404,356 100.0 100.0 100.0

Reason for
migration : Work / 14,446,224 12,373,333 2,072,891 14.7 37.6 3.2
Employment
Business 1,136,372 950,245 186,127 1.2 2.9 0.3
Education 2,915,189 2,038,675 876,514 3.0 6.2 1.3
Marriage 43,100,911 679,852 42,421,059 43.8 2.1 64.9
Moved after birth 6,577,380 3,428,673 3,148,707 6.7 10.4 4.8
Moved with
20,608,105 8,262,143 12,345,962 21.0 25.1 18.9
households
Other 9,517,161 5,164,065 4,353,096 9.7 15.7 6.7
 MEASURES OF MIGRATION
Direct Measures
1.In-migration Rate (IR): The number of in-migrants to a physical/administrative area in a given
year. IR= The number of in-migrants to an area in given year x 1000 Midyear population.
2.Out-migration Rate (OR): The number of out-migrants departing an area of origin, per 1,000
population at that area origin in a given year.
OR = the number of out-migrants in a given year x 1,000 Midyear population.
3.Net Migration Rate (NMR): The net effect of in-migration and out-migration on an area’s
population, expressed as increase or decrease per 1,000 population of the area in a given year.
NMR= Number of in-migrants -- out-migrants x1000 Mid ear population (or) NRR = IR – OR
4.Gross Migration Rate: The total number of in-migrants and out-migrants per 1,000 population
of the area in a given year.
GMR= Number of in-migrants + out-migrants x1000 Mid ear population (or) GMR = IR + OR
 Indirect measures of migration
Why we need indirect measures:
 Unavailability of data for a small unit
 Defective of data
 Calculation to be made for specific concern
 To appraise the quality of migration data in a Census.
 To project the migration by age or for future.
Benefits of indirect migration estimates:
 They can provide information through time, including data for period and places where no
other migration statistics available.
 They are applicable at all geographical levels from local to regional and national populations
 Some of the methods provides estimates by age and sex.
 Comparing estimates derived from different methods, can be used to validate findings and
the quality of data.
1.Vital statistics method:
 simplest and potentially most accurate method of estimating net migration.
 The Demographic Balancing equation can be used.
 Net migration is obtained for each district/ region/area by subtracting natural increase
from the total population change.
 Demographic Balance Equation :
Net Migration = ( P(t+1)- P(t))+Natural Increase or,
(Immigrants-Emigrants) = (P(t+1)- P(t) )+(Births-Deaths)
Accurate estimation of net migration by this method require accurate vital statistics on births
and deaths together with reliable census statistics or other data on population change.
2.Survival ratio methods :
 Survival ratio methods involve 2 main steps:
1.Calculate how many in a birth cohort survive from one census to the next
2.Subtract the number of survivors from the cohort’s size at the second census
The difference is the intercensal net migration.
 These estimates are usually do separately for males and females to account age sex
related variations in probabilities of moving.
 Data for survival ratio methods:
 A sets of age – sex specific survival ratios.
 Statistics on population by age and sex at two consecutive censuses (5 year or 10 year).
 Calculation of age –sex specific net migration.

Total Aged 25- Survivors Total Aged 30-34, Net

29 males in aged 30-34 males in migration
2000 in 2005 2005 Ages 30-34,
males

A B C D=(C-B)
2.1 Forward survival method:
Estimate the net migration at the end of the interval.
 To estimate the net migration of people aged 25-29 at the end of the period, the estimated
survivors (from the original 20-24 cohort, by using survivorship probabilities) are subtracted
from the total census population (second census) aged 25-29 in the area.
 The estimated survivors from the initial cohort age 20-24, exceeded the census counts of 25-
29 year old in the second census, that means due to migration, increase the cohort size or
net migration gain to that area.
The formula for forward survival estimates of net migration is (Shryock and Siegel,1973):
Net M'x+n = Pⁿ x+n – S x P0x

2.2 Reverse survival method:

Provide a more complete estimate of the volume of net migration, especially when the
migration interval is long or mortality is high.
Reverse survival usually produces higher estimates of net migration because the figures
include migrants who died
Start with the end period ages from reverse survival estimates, because some of the migrants
would have died
Reverse survival refers to migrants’ initial age.
The formula for reverse survival estimates of net migration is
Net M'x = 1/S x Pⁿ x+n – P0x

Reverse survival is obtained by multiplying end –period population by the reciprocal of the
survival ratio (i.e. 1/survival ratio) and subtracting the initial population.
 3.The birth place method

 Cross-tabulation of migration status & characteristics

• Place of Usual Residence (POR) by Place of Birth (Birth place method)
-life time migration moves only
- severe underestimation migration moves as intermediate destinations are not
recorded
 POR by POR 1 or 5 years ago
 focus on recent migration flows.

REFERENCES:
BOOKS : URBANISATION AND MIGRATION -N.KOTESHWAR RAO.
INTERNET: http://censusindia.gov.in