Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Management
PERT and CPM
C and D cannot
A C begin until A A C
(d) and B have
both been
B D completed B D
C cannot begin
until both A and B
A C are completed; D A C
(e) cannot begin until Dummy activity
B is completed. A
B D dummy activity is
introduced in AOA B D
A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)
B and C cannot
begin until A is
completed. D
A B D cannot begin A B D
until both B and
(f) C are completed. Dummy C
C A dummy activity
activity is again
introduced in
AOA.
Project Network – Activity on
Arrow
AOA
Order 4
Locate 2 setup
facilities
Remodel
1 5 6
Move
in
Interview
Hire and
train
3
Project Network – Activity on
Node
AON
Order
Locate 2
facilities setup
1 6
Move
Remodel
in
S 5 7
Hire and
Interview
train
3 4
Time Estimates
Deterministic
Time estimates that are fairly certain
Probabilistic
Estimates of times that allow for variation
Computing Algorithm
Network activities
ES: earliest start
EF: earliest finish
LS: latest start
LF: latest finish
Used to determine
Expected project duration
Slack time
Critical path
Determining the Project Schedule
Activity A
A
(Build Internal Components)
Start
Activity B
Start B (Modify Roof and Floor)
Activity
AON Network for Milwaukee
Paper
Activity A Precedes Activity C
A C
Start
B D
Activities A and B
Precede Activity D
AON Network for Milwaukee
Paper
F
A C
E
Start H
B D G
H
1 Dummy 6 7
Activity (Inspect/
Test)
D
3 5
(Pour
Concrete/
Install Frame)
Determining the Project Schedule
Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish
Activity Duration
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper (Forward pass)
ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start
0 0
0
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
EF of A =
ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
Start 0 2
0 0
2
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A
0 2
2 EF of B =
ES ES of B + 3
0
Start
0 of B
B
0 0 3
3
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C
0 2 2 4
2 2
Start
0 0
B
0 3
3
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C
0 2 2 4
2 2
Start
0 0
= Max (2, 3) D
0
3 7
B
0 3
3
4
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C
0 2 2 4
2 2
Start
0 0
B D
0 3 3 7
3 4
ES/EF Network for Milwaukee
Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2
B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
3 4 5
LS/LF Times for Milwaukee
Paper (Backward pass)
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
13 15
0 4 2
B D – Activity time
LS = LF G
0 3 3 7 8 13
3 4 5 LF = EF
of Project
LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7
10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0
LF =4 Min(LS
8 of 13 15
following activity) 13 15
0 4 2
B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
3 4 5
LS/LF Times for
LF = Min(4, 10)
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7
2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
4 8 13 15
0 4 2
B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
8 13
3 4 5
LS/LF Times for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7
0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2
B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5
Computing Slack Time
Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF
Computing Slack Time
Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
Critical Path for
Milwaukee Paper
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7
0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3
Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2
B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5
Critical Path Example
8 11
A 3 G
0 6 11 21
2 8 11 21
6 D 10
6 8
12 14
Start
2
End
0 0 21 21
0 0 E 21 21
0 0
7 11
B 7 11
0 7 4 H
13 20
0 7 14 21
7 F 7
7 13
8 14
6
Computing Slack Time
Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path
A 0 6 2 8 2 No
B 0 7 0 7 0 Yes
C 6 9 8 11 2 No
D 6 8 12 14 6 No
E 7 11 7 11 0 Yes
F 7 13 8 14 1 No
G 11 21 11 21 0 Yes
H 13 20 14 21 1 No
Probabilistic Time Estimates
Optimistic time
Time required under optimal conditions
Pessimistic time
Time required under worst conditions
Most likely time
Most probable length of time that will be
required
Probabilistic Estimates
Beta Distribution
to tm te tp
te = t o + 4t m +t p
6
te = expected time
to = optimistic time
tm = most likely time
tp = pessimistic time
Variance
2 (t
= p o– t ) 2
36
2 = variance
to = optimistic time
tp = pessimistic time
Computing Variance
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance
Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A 1 2 3 2 .11
B 2 3 4 3 .11
C 1 2 3 2 .11
D 2 4 6 4 .44
E 1 4 7 4 1.00
F 1 2 9 3 1.78
G 3 4 11 5 1.78
H 1 2 3 2 .11
Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
activities
p2 = Project variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)
Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by summing
the variances of critical activities
Project variance
p2 = .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11
15 Weeks
(Expected Completion Time)
Probability of Project
Completion
What is the probability this project can
be completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?
15 16 Time
Weeks Weeks
Determining Project
Completion Time
Due date = 15 + 2.33 x 1.76
Probability = 19.1 weeks
of 0.99
Probability
of 0.01
2.33 Standard Z
Z = 2.33 deviations
0 2.33
PERT Example
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic ImmediateVariance
Time
Activity a m b t = (aPredecessors
+ 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2
A 3 6 8 5.83 - 0.69
B 2 4 4 3.67 - 0.11
C 1 2 3 2.00 - 0.11
D 6 7 8 7.00 C 0.11
E 2 4 6 4.00 B,D 0.44
F 6 10 14 10.00 A,E 1.78
G 1 2 4 2.17 A,E 0.25
H 3 6 9 6.00 F 1.00
I 10 11 12 11.00 G 0.11
J 14 16 20 16.33 C 1.00
K 2 8 10 7.33 H,I 1.78
Advantages of PERT
Slack activities 1 5 6
3
Limitations of PERT
on critical path
142 weeks