Documente Academic
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Foreign Exchange
Determination Systems
&international institutions
BASIC CONCEPTS RELATING TO FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
Foreign currency means currency other than Indian currency
Exchange rate is price of one country’s currency expressed in another
country currency. Ex: Rs 63 for one USD
Major currencies of world are: USD, Euro, Yen and Pound
Foreign exchange, (Forex) is the conversion of one country's currency into
that of another that involves foreign exchange risk. In a free economy, a
country's currency is valued according to factors of supply and demand.
Currency's value can be pegged to another country's currency, such as the
U.S. dollar, or even to a basket of currencies.
Conversion of currency done either spot or forward through banks who deal
in Forex
Spot market handled for current transactions on daily basis
Forward market deals with transactions for future delivery and rate . Forward
rates are quoted as premium or discount over spot rate.
Foreign exchange market is a global decentralized market for trading of
currencies. Large international banks are participants in this market.
PURCHASING POWER PARITY THEORY (PPP)
As per this theory when exchange rates are fluctuating in
nature, the rate of exchange b/w 2 currencies in long run will be
fixed by their respective purchasing powers in their own nation
PPP means price of goods that is charged in one country must
be equal to the one charged for the same goods in another
country, being exchanged at the current rate which is known as
law of one price
For example, Let's say that a pair of shoes costs Rs 3600 in
India. Then it should cost $60 in America when the exchange
rate is 60 between the dollar and the rupee.
This theory applicable to movable goods and do not consider
transportation cost and assume there are competitive market for
the goods in both countries
BALANCE OF PAYMENT THEORY (BOP)
BOP is the record of all economic transactions b/w residents of a country and
rest of the world over a period of time (includes import, export, finance transfer)
Transactions recorded into current a/c, capital a/c transactions, financial a/a and
central bank transactions.
It is also called the demand and supply theory of exchange rate.
The rate of exchange in the forex market is determined by the balance of
payments, in the sense demand and supply of foreign exchange in the market.
If the demand for a country's currency falls at a given rate of exchange, we can
speak of a deficit in its balance of payments, when it rises it is surplus in its BOP
Any deficit or surplus in the balance of payments causes changes in the demand
and supply of foreign exchange and thus leads to fluctuations in the exchange
rate
The country’s BOP is said to be surplus, when export and sale of bond is more
than payments for import and purchase of bonds. When there is deficit in the
BOP the debits will exceed the credits (or the demand for foreign exchange), the
rate of exchange will rise
PARTICIPANTS IN FOREX MARKET
All scheduled commercial banks are dealers
Reserve bank of India
Corporate Treasuries
Government
Resident Indians
Non residents
Exchange companies
Money changers
ROLE OF RBI IN FOREX MARKET
The limits are tied up with the paid up capital of the bank
TREASURY OPERATIONS AT RESERVE BANK OF INDIA (RBI)
UBS AG
HSBC
JP Morgan
Credit Suisse
Morgan Stanley
Goldman Sachs
VARIOUS TYPES OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
Fixed exchange rate system: It offer greater certainty for EXIM. Exchange rate
for currency fixed by government. It ensures stability in foreign trade through
the government maintaining huge reserves of foreign currencies
Value of currency fixed in terms of external standard like gold, silver, other
country currencies and precious metal. When value of domestic currency is tied
is tied to value of another currency, it is known as Pegging.
Flexible exchange rate system: It is a system where currency rate determined
by forces of demand and supply of different currencies in Forex market. No
official intervention in the market. It is also known as floating exchange rate.
Managed floating rate system: foreign ex rate determined by market forces and
central bank influences ex rate through intervention in Forex market. It is a
hybrid type of exchange rate and central bank maintains reserve of Forex to
ensure that Forex rate stays with in target value. It is known as Dirty floating.
Swap rate system: swap is a contract to buy an amount of currency and
simultaneously resell same amount of currency at an agreed rate to the same
counter party
FACTORS AFFECTING EXCHANGE RATES
Inflation rate: Changes in relative inflation b/w 2countries affect exchange rate.
When domestic inflation rate is less than foreign country, domestic currency is
stronger than foreign country .
Interest rates: real interest rate must be same in every country, country with
higher interest rate have higher inflation.
International trade balance: Deficit in international trade balance is increasing
with negative impact on USD & LE (Legal Egyptian currency)
Foreign currency supply: Decline in foreign currency from tourism and money
transfer will put pressure on LE
Net international reserve: when it is declining it decreases ability to maintain
constant rates
Technical factors; seasonal demand for currencies, strengthening of currencies
also affect exchange rates.
DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE
Interest rate: when there is increase in interest rate in domestic market ,
there will be increase in investment causing decrease in demand for foreign
currency and increase in supply of foreign currency
Inflation rate: when inflation increases there is less demand for local goods
and more demand for foreign goods. ( increase demand for foreign currency).
Government budget ( deficit or surplus): when government budget is
deficit ,the market react negatively, this result in change in value of currency.
Political conditions: Internal and international political conditions have
effect on currency rate.
Setting equilibrium exchange rates (EER): the quantity of supply and
demand of foreign currency is in equilibrium. Ex: demand for German goods
by America and vice versa. EER occurs when quantity supplied equals
quantity demanded of foreign currency at a special price.
Economic growth: strong economic growth attract investments causing
decrease in demand for foreign currency and increase in supply of foreign
currency
HISTORY OF INDIAN RUPEES EXCHANGE RATES
In 1978 the government allowed banks to trade Forex with one another.
Today over 70% of the trading in foreign exchange continues to take place in the interbank market
The market consists of over 90 Authorized Dealers
The foreign exchange market is the most liquid financial market in the world. Traders include large banks, central
banks, institutional investors, currency speculators, corporations, governments, other financial institutions and
retail investors.
Trading is regulated by the Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI), a self regulatory association
of dealers.
Since 2001, clearing and settlement functions in the foreign exchange market are largely carried out by the
Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL)
There is a shift from one way nominal movement over nineties to two way with low volatility implying tightly
managed exchange rate to greater volatility and nominal movement after global crisis.
Real effective exchange effective was established after double devaluation
Higher Indian inflation led to reserve accumulation
In 2003-04 turnover in Indian Forex market was 175 billion USD and increased to 359 billion USD in 2005-06.
In 2003 for the first time volatility accompanied appreciation
Trading in foreign exchange markets averaged $5.3 trillion per day in April 2013.
Foreign exchange swaps were the most actively traded instruments in April 2013, at $2.2 trillion per day, followed
by spot trading at $2.0 trillion.
METHODS OF QUOTATION
Method – I Method – II
One Orange = Rs 2 Rs. 10 = 5 Oranges
Price under both the methods is the same though expressed differently
Method - I Method - II
DIRECT(FC fixed) INDIRECT( HC fixed)
USD 1 = Rs 45.18 Rs 100 = USD 2.2133
GBP 1 = Rs.85.99 Rs 100 = GBP 1.1629
EUR 1 = Rs 57.92 Rs 100 = EUR 1.7265
With Effect from 02.08.1993, all exchanges are quoted in Direct Method
UNDERSTANDING TWO WAY EXCHANGE QUOTES
In Forex markets , there are two way quotes i.e.
both buying and selling rates are given.
1 USD = INR 45.16/ 18
Dollar/SwissFrancs -- USD/CHF
Note the order of the currencies
The
first currency($) - Base currency
Second currency (CHF) - Terms currency
WB - World bank
Executive Board
Managing Director
Deputy Managing
Director
Interim Committee
Development
committee
FEATURES OF IMF
During world war II many countries were in great depression. Countries were trying to
reconstruct, develop world trade that declined and improve the standard of living of
their people.
Need for an institution to oversee international monetary system, system of exchange
rates and international payments was felt.
IMF was conceived in July 1944. 45 countries met in Bretton Wood town in US and
agreed for framing IMF. It began its operation in 1947.
With its near-global membership of 188 countries, the IMF is uniquely placed to help
member governments take advantage of the opportunities—and manage the
challenges—posed by globalization and economic development more generally.
The IMF provides policy advice and financing to members in economic difficulties and
also works with developing nations to help them achieve macroeconomic stability and
reduce poverty.
Marked by massive movements of capital and abrupt shifts in comparative
advantage, globalization affects countries' policy choices in many areas, including
labor, trade, and tax policies. Helping a country benefit from globalization while
avoiding potential downsides is an important task for the IMF.
ROLE (OBJECTIVES) OF IMF
To avoid competitive devaluation and exchange control
Maintain currency convertibility with stable exchange rates
Develop multilateral trade and payments
To promote international monetary cooperation and offer consultation for the problems
Facilitate expansion of balanced growth in global trade, maintain high levels of
employment and income to all its members
Provide exchange stability and avoid competitive exchange depreciation.
To give confidence to members by making funds available to them
Reduce the period and degree of disequilibrium in international Balance of payments of
members
Assist establishment of multilateral system of payments regarding current transactions
b/w members
Elimination of foreign exchange transactions that hamper the growth of world trade
It has three main tools at its disposal to carry out its mandate: surveillance, technical
assistance and training and lending. These functions are underpinned by the IMF’s
research and statistics.
MAIN TOOLS OF IMF
Surveillance: The IMF promotes economic stability and global growth by encouraging
countries to adopt sound economic and financial policies through monitoring global, regional,
and national economic developments which is termed as bilateral surveillance. On a regular
basis, once in a year IMF conducts in depth appraisals of each member country’s economic
situation. IMF also carries out extensive analysis of global and regional economic trends,
known as multilateral surveillance. Its key outputs are three semiannual publications,
the World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, and the Fiscal Monitor.
IMF agreed to enhance multilateral, financial, and bilateral surveillance.
Technical assistance and training: IMF offers technical assistance and training in 4 areas
like monetary and financial policies, fiscal policy and management compilation, management
dissemination and improvement of statistical data; and economic and financial legislation.
Lending: IMF financing provides member countries the breathing room they need to correct
balance of payments problems. Continued financial support is conditional on the effective
implementation of this program. In the most recent reforms, IMF lending instruments were
improved further to provide flexible crisis prevention tools to a broad range of members with
sound policy frameworks. In low-income countries, the IMF has doubled loan access limits
and is boosting its lending with loans at a concessional interest rate.
FUNCTIONS OF IMF
IMFD determine and adjust the rate of exchange
It reduces tariffs and other trade restrictions by member countries
They provide technical assistance to members regarding monetary and fiscal policies
It provides short term financial assistance to members to get rid of balance of payment
problems
They are the reservoir of currencies of member countries and lend other currencies to
their members
They are the lending institutions of foreign currencies
It alter par value of member country’s currency to improve their BOP position
They offer internal consultancy
They conduct research studies and publish the reports
It conducts short term training courses on fiscal, monetary and BOP for employees of
member countries through central bank service department, Fiscal affairs department,
Bureau of statistics and IMF Institute
ADVANTAGES OF MEMBERSHIP OF IMF
IMF offer financial assistance to member countries through
loans
They help member countries during foreign exchange crisis
Combat corruption
Information technology
Banking
Insurance
Telecommunication
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRADEAND TARIFF
(GATT)
GATT established in 1948
It is a multilateral agreement signed by member countries
India was one of the founder member of GATT
The main objective of GATT is to bring economic prosperity by liberalizing
international trade
It aims for substantial reduction of tariffs and other trade barriers, and
elimination of preferences on mutually advanced basis
Change in tariff can be done only after consulting other parties to agreement
Tariff level was brought down from 40% to 3% in 1986
GATT was transformed into World Trade Organisation (WTO) with effect
from 1995
PRINCIPLES OF GATT
Textiles
Planto progressively reduce and eliminate the
current quota system.
TRIPS
Agreement to provide enhanced protection to
intellectual property.
DIFFERENCE B/W GATT AND WTO
1995
EVOLUTION OF THE WTO
Predecessor of the WTO – The GATT ‘47
The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) 1947 -the first
major effort to establish international rules governing trade in goods.
Though initially conceived as a provisional legal instrument, it
endured for almost 50 years.
It functioned without a formal organisational framework to oversee
its implementation as the proposed International Trade Organisation
(ITO) never came into being
GATT’s primary focus was the reciprocal reduction of tariffs which
later expanded to other trade related areas.
In the years leading up to the Uruguay Round, GATT expanded its
competence through several rounds of trade negotiations which
witnessed the formulation of complex legal instruments on specific
aspects of trade, particularly disciplines on the use of non tariff
barriers.
THE URUGUAY ROUND (1986-1994)
Ministerial conference
General council
Committee on
Committee Committee council for council for Trade
trade &
on budget on BOP services Goods related IPR
development
council
FUNCTIONS OF WTO
Acting as a forum for multilateral trade negotiations
Seeking to resolve trade disputes
Acting as a watch dog of international trade
Maintaining trade related database
Cooperating with other international institutions involved in global economic policy making
Acting as a management consultant for world trade
Technical assistance and training for developing countries
They seek to reform trade in agriculture
Regulate food safety, plant and animal health
Integrate textile and clothing sector
Deal with trade related intellectual property rights
Manage effectively TRIMS ( Trade related investment measures)
No discrimination or favour regarding customs duty among member countries. It is termed as
principle of Most favoured nation(MFN)
Free trade through negotiations by lowering trade barriers (tariffs, & quota)
Multilateral trading system create a stable and predictable business environment
MOST FAVOURED NATION
Art. 1 of GATT embodies the MFN rule. At its simplest, it requires any
favourable treatment granted to a product originating in or destined for any
other country, to be accorded immediately and unconditionally to the like
product originating in or destined for the territories of all other member states.
E.g. Spanish coffee case: Spain applied a higher duty on the types of coffee
imported from Brazil while applying a lower duty on other coffees considered
to be ‘like products’. The Panel considered this to be a breach of its GATT
MFN obligation.
There are permitted exceptions to the MFN rule:
Basic Dispute
principles
GATT GATS TRIPS settlement
Typically,
involved parties have abided by the WTO
recommendations.
INTRODUCTION
63
the creations of their minds. They usually give the creator an
exclusive right over the use of his/her creation for a certain
period of time
Linkage between Intellectual Property (IP) and trade: broadly
through following two premises:
(I) Widespread piracy, counterfeiting and infringements of
intellectual property rights constituted a barrier to trade
(II) IPRs transfer agreements
TRADE RELATED INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
RIGHTS (TRIPS)
Trademarks
Geographical indications
Industrial design
Patents
Undisclosed information
Part 2 : Provide minimum standard that each country must provide for
various intellectual properties
66
It relates to novel, poem, story, book and lyric.
Ex: chetan Bhagat novel 5 point some one taken as 3 Idiots for
which he claimed his right.
GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATIONS (GIS)
GIs are denominations that identify a good as originating in a region or locality,
where the reputation and quality of good is essentially attributable to its
67
geographical origin (for example: Darjeeling tea of India)
TRIPS prohibits the use of GIs in such a way as to cause deception and provides
for injunctive relief, refusal of trademark registration, etc
68
Includes trade dress (the total image and overall appearance of a product) and
product configuration (the shape if non functional)
Generic terms, descriptive terms, deceptive terms and official emblem not
used for trade mark
INDUSTRIAL DESIGNS
Protects the artistic aspect (namely, texture, pattern, shape) of an object instead of the
technical features to make product attractive, inc demand and strengthen brand name
69
They specialise in automobile, furniture, house hold products and medical equipments
etc
The third party is prohibited from making, selling or importing articles bearing a
design which is a copy of the protected design, when such acts are undertaken for
commercial purposes
Ex: Sweden designer developed shower which recycle water, help to save 90% water
PATENTS
It is a right exclude others from making, using or selling one’s invention
70
Invention to be novel, useful and non-obvious
SWEDEN CO Ericssion hold patent for tech used in mobile, filed case on
Micromax for using their tech, for which penalty of 1% on SP paid to
Sweden Co.
Ex: Basmati rice patent right given by US to Rice tech inc, now objected by
LAYOUT-DESIGNS OF INTEGRATED CIRCUITS AND
TRADE SECRETS
71
used to etch or encode an electrical circuit on a semiconductor chip
Exclusive rights include the right of reproduction and the right of importation,
sale and other distribution for commercial purposes
The term of protection (ten years form the date of first commercial
exploitation)
PROTECTION OF UNDISCLOSED INFORMATION
72
commercial value because it is secret and that has been subject to
reasonable steps to keep it secret
In most countries, they are not subject to registration but are protected
through laws against unfair competition
REMEDIES TO OWNERS UNDER IPR ACT
74
become barriers to legitimate trade
Copyrights terms must extend to 50 years after the death of the author
Many of the patent and trademark provisions were imported from the Paris
convention
FEATURES OF TRADE RELATED INVESTMENT
MEASURES (TRIMS)
TRIMS agreement signed end of Uruguay round
It relates to agreement that violate national treatment and quantitative restrictions
It focus on restrictions imposed by the government in respect of foreign
investment in the country.
Offering equal rights to foreign investor as those of domestic investor
No restrictions on any area of investment
Only developing countries notify TRIMS.
No ceiling on quantum of foreign investment
FDI in the form of share/ debenture / assets / bond
No force on foreign investors to use total products
Restriction on repatriation of dividend, interest and royalty will be removed
FEMA control value of share pricing
FDI received in Automatic route and Government route
When investment made through government route it is approved by FIPB- foreign
investmebnt promotion board
FDI LIMIT
FDI not allowed: 74% FDI limit- 8 sectors:
Atomic energy Airport, Diamond mine
Explosives Internet service provider
Gambling Satellite
Cigarette manufacture Private bank, Coal mine
Chit funds 51% FDI limit:
Agriculture (with exceptions) Trading & multi brand retail
100% FDI- 28 sectors: 49% FDI limit:
Advertisement Airlines, Defence, Insurance
Power plant setting 26% FDI limit:
Oil refining FM Radio, Print media
Tourism 20%FDI limit:
Films Public sector banks
SEZ
Gold mining
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TRADE IN SERVICES (GATS)
At the General agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) Uruguay round, it was
decided to bring the textile trade under the jurisdiction of the world trade
organisation
Bangladesh was expected to suffer the most from the ending of the MFA, as it was
expected to face more competition, particularly from China
In 2005, textile and clothing exports from China to the West grew by 100% in many
items, leading the US and EU to cite China's WTO accession agreement allowing
them to restrict the rate of growth to 7.5% per year until 2008.
AGREEMENT ON AGRICULTURE (AOA)
It was established to market, support and protect agriculture marketing
They are committed to domestic support, market access and export
subsidies
AOA ignored the realities of global agricultural markets
In Uruguay round textile trade brought under WTO. Ex: EU imported textile
from Bangladesh
Textile came under GATT
Developing countries textile production cost less due to less labour cost –
wanted to promote developing countries
It reinforced industrial agriculture at the expense of sustainable agriculture
Agricultural subsides have affected developing country farmers by denying
access to rich markets and allowing farmers from rich countries to sell in
developing countries at suppressed prices
Subsidies excluded from those appearing in blue box (to be reduced –R&D)
and green box (permitted - PDS) has to be reassessed
GLOBAL
Global Food
Availability
Trade
National Net National Food
NATIONAL
Imports of Food Production
Growth,
Employment Government
Distribution, Revenues
National Food Poverty
Availability
Page 83
Nonnecessities
INDIVIDUAL
Nutrition
Security
PILLARS OF AGRICULTURE ON AGREEMENT
3-86
could be converted to a weight of gold, or said to set the par value for its
currency in terms of gold
Since each government agreed to buy or sell gold with anyone at its
announced rate, so exchange rates between currencies were in effect
“fixed”
Maintaining adequate reserves of gold to back its currency’s value was very
important for a country under this system
The system implicitly limits the rate at which any individual country
could expand its monetary supply
Any growth in the amount of money was limited to the rate at which official
authorities could acquire addition gold
HISTORICAL EVENTS PRECEDING THE BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM
87
trade
Trade and exchange rate controls
Goal:
To establish a postwar international monetary system of convertible
currencies, fixed exchange rates and free trade.
But!
Different preferences 2 rival plans
88
ESTABLISHING OF THE BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM
I. The Keynes Plan: (Great Britain)
Goals: - world trade expansion
- international liquidity
- protection of the domestic economy from foreign
disturbances
Essence:
Pound holders lost confidence in pounds and began converting their pound to
gold a run on British gold reserves
1931 Britain was forced to abandon the gold standard
Focus on adjustment of real economy → wide fluctuation band
Focus on world trade expansion and international liquidity “Bancor”
with nominal value fixed in terms of gold
Surplus nations (U.S.A): credit balances earning interest
Deficit nations (GB): overdrafts bearing interest to surplus nations
Assigned quota determines the limit on resources to obtain, if over
quoted → penalties: devaluation, capital control
89
ESTABLISHING OF THE BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM
II. The White Plan: (U.S.A) Goal: Exchange rate stability
Essence:
There was 15% drop in US gold holdings
1933: US left the gold standard.
1934: US returned to the gold standard
- Focus on purchasing power of currencies → deviations from parity
only in case of fundamental imbalances
- Deficit nations: draw resources by selling their own currency for
that of other members
- Establishment of stabilizing bond → IMF, IBRD
Penalties: appropriate domestic policies & exchange controls
Compromise between I and II = BW Agreement
90
ESTABLISHING OF THE BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM