Plant life management and cost effective maintenance

strategy based on risk-based decision making

Engr. Owais Manzoor

Asset Integrity Engineer

Petro master Saudi Arabia

Email: mat2@petromaster-sa.com
 INTRODUCTION

Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4

Introduction • A framework • considering • considering • Practical

to estimate system human error Applications
Methodology
risk-based availability. for a
RBISM shutdown processing
inspection facility
Failure Probability
and
Failure Consequence maintenance
interval
Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Prevention of
un-expected
Cost Effective Outages

Preventive
Maintenance
Reactive
Complex and Maintenance
Advanced (Expensive)
systems
 Methodology

1. Risk-based equipment selection for shutdown interval estimation

Introduction

Methodology 2. Estimation of failure data and failure consequences

RBISM
3. Establishing a risk-based optimized shutdown interval
Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer
 Risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance
interval (RBSIM)

Introduction
Outage Tasks
Methodology

RBISM
Failure Probability
Overhauls Maintenance Replacement

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval
Inspection Upgrades
Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

 Focus must be placed on equipment failures that have
Question/Answer
most significant impact.

 The Process begins with the qualitative risk-based study for the
equipment's.

 Selection of the critical components.

 Risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance
interval (RBSIM)

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM
Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Reference 1
 Risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance
interval (RBSIM)
Qualitative Criticality risk ranking matrix
Introduction

Methodology

RBISM
Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer
 Risk-based shutdown inspection and maintenance
interval (RBSIM)

Operational relationships and knowledge regarding various system elements is

Introduction required to perform shutdown interval estimation .

Methodology

RBISM Reliability block diagrams are usually used to represent these relationships

Failure Probability
An operating plant may constitute pieces of equipment arranged in series, active redundancy or
Failure Consequence
standby redundancy
Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer
 Estimation of the Failure Probabilities

A stochastic process can be defined using a probabilistic method.

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability System Failure Probability:

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

The variable R (t) is defined as the reliability of the equipment in a system that has not had any maintenance or
inspection during a time t but is scheduled to undergo inspection and maintenance during a shutdown.
Question/Answer

For a System in a Series Configuration For System in Series/Parallel Configuration

 Evaluating Failure Consequences

Economic failure consequences

Introduction These consequences can be calculated based on the effects of thermal radiation and overpressure on surrounding
equipment and personnel and subsequently converted in the monetary ($) terms that are assumed to be invariant
Methodology with time
RBISM
Economic Consequences of Asset Loss (ECAL):
Failure Probability

Failure Consequence Consequence effect zones (m2) in terms of overpressure level are calculated to establish asset losses
Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

PDOP is the probability of damage
Case Study ( Power Plants) EZ is the effected zone

Life Management Decision AD is asset density

Question/Answer Economic Consequences of Human Health Loss

Similar to the calculation of asset loss, human health loss is calculated in terms of dollars for each scenario using
the following equation

PDOP is the probability of damage due to overpressure, EZ is the effected zone due to overpressure, PD is
population density and CF is cost of injury or fatality.
 Inspection/Outage Interval
Determine the time at which the estimated risk is equal to the acceptable risk

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer
 Case Study 1
Liquefaction Unit in natural gas plant

A block diagram of the critical equipment selected for this unit is shown
Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Reference 2
 Case Study 1
Liquefaction Unit in natural gas plant

Introduction
Equipment Classification
Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer Characteristic life

Reference 2
 Case Study 1
Consequence Analysis

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Reference 2
 Case Study 1
Interval Analysis

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Reference 2
 Case Study 2
Assessment of Damage Susceptibility

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Reference 4
 Case Study 2
Time for replacement

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer U curve with the minimum costs – a practical example from a power plant

Reference 4
 Questions

Introduction

Methodology

RBISM

Failure Probability

Failure Consequence

Inspection Interval

Case Study (Process Plant)

Case Study ( Power Plants)

Life Management Decision

Question/Answer

Thank You!

Reference 4