Module 7

HUMAN POPULATION

 Rapid growth of human population

illustrates the great capacity for growth
despite the limiting conditions that beset
the environment
 Human species utilized their intelligence
to make technological advancements
 This capability and their rapid increase
made them as an environmental problem
Human Population Growth
and the Environment

 Human Population - An Explosive Growth

 Human Needs - Limited Resources
 Our Natural Environment Under Attack
 Roles of Technology and Engineering
 An Uncertain Future
Humans are Recent Arrivals

 Earth - 5 Billion Years

 Multi-cell Biota 66Billion
Billion
- 600 Million Years
 Human Beings
~ 2 Million Years
 Human Population
Growth into Billions
- Last 200 years
A Million Years Of Human Growth (1)
A Closer Look (1)

 12,000 years  2,000 Years

The Industrial Revolution

1 Billion
200 million

 200 Million by 1 A.D.  1 Billion in 1800 A.D.

Change in Population
Characteristics

 How has the Worlds Population

Increased?
 Three Revolutions that increased Worlds
Population
 Agricultural Revolution [8000 BC]
 Industrial Revolution [1750 AD]
 Medical Revolution [1950]
Three Technological Eras (2)


Differential Population
Growth Rates – Why?

 The Demographic Transition

 Countries in Different Stages of Transition
 Explaining the Model!
 Stage 1
Birth rate and death rate are high - low
natural increase - low total population
 Stage 2
Birth rate is high - death rate is falling -
high natural increase (population
growth)
 Stage 3
Falling birth rate - low death rate - high
natural increase (population growth)
 Stage 4
Birth rate and death rate is low - low
natural increase - high total population
Countries in Different
Stages of Transition

 India – Stage 2
 Nigeria Stage – 2
 Australia – 4
 China - Stage 2 to 3
PROBLEMS OF
OVERPOPULATION
 1. Shortage of fuel wood: Can be a matter of life &
death.
 a. used to cook food (some can’t be eaten raw)
 b. used to boil water (waterborne diseases
common)
 25 million people/yr, most of them children die
of diseases contracted from dirty water. (Lima
Peru 1991 1st cholera epidemic in Western
Hemisphere in more than 75 years.)
 2. The Urban Crisis. By 2020 almost 1/4 of the
world’s city dwellers will be homeless.
3. Social Unrest: Conflicts between groups for scare resources.
Water rights, food riots, illegal immigration.
4. Environmental Refugees: Millions of people in search of food.
Host countries overwhelmed: provide education, health care &
jobs.
5. Soil infertility as a result of
intensive farming = decreasing
the carrying capacity of the
land which may take hundreds
of years to recover if it can.

The flood of environmental

refugees is a good argument
for helping other countries
solve their environmental
problems & reduce their
population growth.

 Overall = Resource depletion,

environmental degradation &
threats to the ecological
support systems that we all
depend on.
What’s Behind Population Growth

 Three Factors  Industrial Revolution

 Fertility  Growth of Cities and
Infrastructure
 Infant Mortality
 Water
 Longevity  Energy
 Transportation

 Animal Domestication  Increased Productivity

and Agriculture  Nutrition
 Provided for a few to  Sanitation
feed many  Medicine
 Fertility Trends

 Population predictions are

very sensitive to future
fertility assumptions
 At 1990 fertility rates
(constant by region)
population would grow to
110 billion in 2100, over
700 billion in 2150 (3)
 Has been dropping since
1800 in developed nations
- now at Zero Growth (4)
 Is on its way down in much
of the developing world (4)
 Population Predictions (4)

 Most predictions:
9-12B by 2050
10-15B by 2100
 UN (Low) requires
global fertility at
less than zero
growth in 15 years
 Large uncertainties
Population May Overshoot
When Population Outpaces Resources

Scenario - current population trend, doubled resources (5)

Resource Consumption (6)

 High
consumption
 Getting worse
 Rate increase
faster than
population
growth
 Resource Limits - Land (7)

 Deforesting to
acquire more
arable land
 Would run out in
next century at
current yields
 Probably need to
double yields
Resource Limits - Water (8)

 In 1950 people used

half of accessible
water
 Are now dependent
on dams
 Pollution loses 33%
of potential water
 Getting close to
limits
 Energy Consumption (9)

 Energy growth
very high last
fifty years
 Mostly
hydrocarbon
fuels
 Nonrenewable
resource
consumption
and climate
change issues
Fossil Fuel Reserves (9)

•Lots of coal - but heavy CO2 contributor

•Look for alternative forms of energy to emerge
 Technology Evolves (10)

•Cars replaced horses as

transportation needs grew

•Energy forms have

changed to meet
changing needs
•New economic and
environmental needs are
emerging
 Economics and Resources (11)

1.1 billion people suffer from malnutrition

 Impact = P*A*T % of global income 84.7
 Population
 Affluence
 Technology
 US - 5% of
global population
1.4
but 20-25% of
environmental
impact Poorest 20% Richest 20%
Planet Earth is Impacted (12)

 Ecological Footprints
 United States - 5 hectares/person
 Developing nations - 0.5 hectare/person
 For everyone to live at today’s US
footprint would require 3 planet Earths
 Increasing affluence and population is
damaging Earth’s essential ecology
Our ‘Commons’ are in Danger

 Atmospheric pollution and climate change

 Water pollution, including ground aquifers
 Deforestation and loss of oxygenation
 The oceans, coral reefs and their bounty
 National parks, wildernesses and wetlands
 Nonrenewable natural resource depletion
 Fossil fuels, mineral ores, topsoil…..
Biodiversity is in Danger (13)

 Humanity has spawned a species extinction

to rival the 5 great extinctions of 65 - 440
million years ago
 Recovery times from the great extinctions
took 10’s of millions of years
 Biodiversity is essential to life on Earth and
holds untold treasures for the future
 An ecological ethic is emerging
Global Warming - A Good Example
 Atmospheric CO2 is increasing, and
creates greenhouse effect.(14)
 3-5°C rise predicted by computer models
for this century would have major
environmental impact. (15)
 Observed change of 0.25-0.4°surface and
0.0-0.2°C troposphere rise in last 20 years
doesn’t agree with models and may or may 0.6°C rise in last 100 years
not be due to CO2.(16)
 Humans - 6 billion tons/year of CO2 (up
500% from 1950, and increasing) (17)
 Other sources 200B tons/year
 Total atmosphere load - 775B tons
 Total earth load with oceans - 42,000B tons
Predicting the Future - Be Careful

•Don’t assume it
can’t be done
•Leave room for the
unknown
•Consider
alternatives
carefully
•Pursue all potential
solutions
Technology’s Roles

 Detailed explicit information and

understanding of what is occurring
 Sensors, data processing, computers, models,
predictions, communication, information…...
 Alternate technologies that mitigate and
eliminate deleterious effects
 Energy, water, transportation, communication…
 Sustainable Development
Engineers are vital
 Developing and applying
 the means by which to measure, analyze and
predict future conditions
 the technologies by which to mitigate and
eliminate undesired effects
 Describing, explaining and communicating
 To policy makers
 To the non-technical public
 Creating the framework for a sustainable
environment
Philippine Population
 Population: 83.7 million  Population growth rate:
(2006) 91,077,287 2.36% annually (highest
 Age structure: 0-14 in Asia) the country’s
years: 34.5% (male population is projected to
16,043,257/female reach 118.4M in 2025
15,415,334) and 147.3M in 2050.
 15-64 years: 61.3%  Birth rate: 24.48
(male 27,849,584/female births/1,000 population
28,008,293)  Death rate: 5.36
 65 years and over: 4.1% deaths/1,000 population
(male 1,631,866/female
2,128,953)
 Net migration rate: -1.48 migrant(s)/1,000
population
 Sex ratio: at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female
 under 15 years: 1.041 male(s)/female
 15-64 years: 0.994 male(s)/female
 65 years and over: 0.767 male(s)/female
 total population: 0.999 male(s)/female
 Population below poverty line: 40%
Life Expectancy

 Average age at which a person is

calculated to live
 Different countries have different life
expectancy age, depending on the
economic development and technological
advancement
 Advancement in agriculture and medicine
increased the life expectancy of humans
 Middle ages (18th century): 35-40
 Current life expectancy: higher in
developed countries and women
 More developed countries: 73
 Less developed countries: 60
 Japan: 78; US: 75; Africa: 52 (lowest)
 Philippines: 65 (women); 61 (men)
Summary

 Major increases are occurring in human

population and affluence.
 Major stresses result in our society, natural
environment, and ecology.
 Technology and engineering are central to
the creation and the mitigation of problems.
 Predicting the future is difficult (17). The next
twenty five to fifty years will be decisive.
 References
1. Cohen, Joel, How Many People Can The Earth Support?, W. W. Norton & Co.,
New York, 1995, p79-82.

2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology, and the human environment: A thread

through time, Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, J Ausubel
and H.D.Langford, Eds., National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page
38 (concept credited to Deevey, E., The human population, Scientific American,
203, no.9 (September) 1960, pages 194-204.)

3. Cohen, op. cit., p139.

4. Kates, op cit., p50-51.

5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al, Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co.,
White River Junction, Vermont, 1992, p128-140.

6. Meadows, op. cit., p7.

References, continued
7. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p51.
8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55.
9. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p67-8.
10. Ausubel, J, and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological Trajectories and the
Human Environment, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, p21 and
86
11. Cohen, op. cit., p52.
12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999 edition, The Diversity of Life,
W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992.
13. Wilson, E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992.
14..Meadows, op. cit, p92-96.
15. National Research Council, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature
Change, National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 2000
16. Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy economy in Brown, Lester et al, State
of the World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 2001, page 85
17. Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak, Pantheon Books,
New York, 1984, revised 2000.