Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
2
FRAMEWORK
Human
Needs
Technologies Resources
TOOLS/METHODS
1. DATABASE/ENERGY BALANCE
2. ENERGY MODEL FOR DEMAND ESTIMATE
3. HOW TO SUPPLY (CASE OF ENERGY MIX FOR
POWER SUPPLY)
4
1. DATABASE/ENERGY BALANCE
5
EX. ENERGY FLOW
unit: KTOE
Oil: 42,865
Gas: 11,280
Hydro: 693
145
Nuclear: 10,833
1,835
Others:
Biomass:
Oil: 38,789
Gas: 1,833
Biomass: 102
Electricity: 17,341
Losses*: 35,825
Own Use: 4,752
Commercial: 5,348
Others: 21,606
Industry: 19,870
Residential: 5,686
e Heat pumps
Electric boilers
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-140
-170
209
167
69
-3
Chemical heat for electricity0production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 132 -414 -282
r Blast furnaces
Oil refineries
-190850
0
0 0
0 -4023861 3989307
-606 -83
-849
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-65
0
0
0
0
0
0 -191603
0 -35403
Petrochemical plants 0 0 31372 -31807 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -436
g Energy industry own use
Losses
-85370
-3383
-57
-38
-6470 -206710 -267514
-7867 -692 -18970
0
0
0
0
0
-147
-189
0
-10767
-187
0 -164415
0 -154288
-42645 -784136
-19358 -204929
Supply Side
Primary Energy Supply
Policies
Energy Conversion
Transformation sector Technologies/Infrastruct
ures
Demand Side
Policies Final Energy Demand
• - Transparency
• - Transferability
• - Simplicity
• - Integration of methodologies/tools
• - Easy Operation and Maintenance
• - Expandability
• - Non intrusive
REVIEW: TYPES OF MODELS & TOOLS: CLARIFICATION
BETWEEN MODELS AND TOOLS
- ROLE OF MODEL
- ECONOMETRICS FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND
16
Economic Theory
1. Economic Data
Econometric Model 2. Energy Demand Data
3. Energy Supply Data
Estimation
Specification testing
and diagnostic
checking
NO
Is the model
adequate?
YES
Hypotheses tests
90
80
70
60 • Examples:
Quantity
50
• Demand decreases as price
40 increases
30
• Supply increases as price increases
20
10 • Energy demand increases as GDP
0 increases
10 20 30 40
Demand
Price
Supply
CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM OF FORECASTING BY
SIMPLE.E
19
APPROACH FROM HUMAN NEEDS:
AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL
External/
International
Energy Costs/
Macroeconomic
Benefit
Energy Supply/
Environment
Demand
21
MODEL BUILDING ENVIRONMENT
Macro Investment
Econometric Plan/Optimization
Add-in Econometrics
Simple E.
Built-in Database
Built-in Iteration
Calculation
Control
EXCEL
Built-in Function
Built-in Graphics
Add-in Solver
Optimization
MonteCarlo- Input/Output,
Stochastic SAM-Eq. Model
APPROACH FROM SUPPLY-SIDE:
EX. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
A FLOW OF POWER INVESTMENT PLAN
External Assumptions
- Residential
- Business/Industry
or Others