WHAT’S NEXT IN FOOD & AGRICULTURE?

What SHOULD be next?

Arlene Mitchell

September 26, 2018

WHY AM I HERE?

Because journalists can make a difference

 Journalists can help people understand important issues
 Understanding is needed
 About food insecurity and hunger
 Trends in food industry and agriculture
 Journalists can catalyze needed actions
 Actions are needed
41.2M AMERICANS LIVE IN FOOD-INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS;
700,000 U.S. CHILDREN SUFFER VERY LOW FOOD INSECURITY
Food security nationally (2016):
Food-insecure households are uncertain of having, or unable to acquire, at some time during
the year, enough food to meet the needs of all their members…:
 41.2 million people lived in food-insecure households
 12.3 % of U.S. households (15.6 million) were food insecure at some time during 2016.
“Food-insecure” includes those with low food security and very low food security.
 7.4 % of U.S. households (9.4 million) had low food security in 2016; 4.9 % of U.S.
households (6.1 million) had very low food security at some time during 2016.
 Very low food security households are food insecure to the extent that normal eating
patterns of some household members were disrupted at times during the year, with self-
reported food intake below levels considered adequate.
 703,000 children (1.0 percent of the nation's children) lived in households in which
one or more child experienced very low food security.
From USDA/ERS, 2017
 Black and Hispanic
American households
are the most food insecure

More than twice as many

Black American households
are food insecure than
White American households

Eight years after “Great

Recession,” food-insecure
American households still
had not returned to prior levels
From USDA/ERS, 2017 of food security
WORLD HUNGER IS ON THE RISE
Food security internationally:
 World hunger is on the rise: the estimated number of undernourished people increased from 777
million in 2015 to 815 million in 2016
 Stunting still affects 155 million children under the age of five years
 Global rates of stunting among children are declining, but remain high in large parts of Africa
 Rates of child wasting remain inordinately high in some sub-regions, especially in Southern Asia
 Childhood overweight is on the rise in all regions
 Adult obesity is rising everywhere at an accelerated pace
 Anaemia among women of reproductive age is a persistent problem
State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World, FAO, 2017
YOU CAN’T KNOW HUNGER UNTIL YOU FEEL IT YOURSELF

 It is “fuzzy” and subjective, because it’s relative

 Almost impossible to understand by those who haven’t experienced it
 It is real, however, and so are it’s consequences
 Withdrawal, depression, anti-social behavior
 Aggression, desperation, anti-social behavior
 Definition and measurement will need to evolve, changing with the times and societal shifts
 Do not expect science to be able to define it adequately, however
HUNGER HAS SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES

Cost of: Losses to: Potential for:

Humanitarian assistance Education Lower-IQ populations

Social programs Productivity Recurring hunger

Health care Social systems Recurring poverty

Long-term debilitation Next generation(s) Civil unrest

OBESITY MATCHING HUNGER AS NUTRITION PROBLEM
Food security internationally

State of Food Security and Nutrition

in the World, FAO, 2017
FOOD SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING
Food/food systems 5-15 years hence

 “New” foods will be introduced:

 Traditional foods in Southern Hemisphere will be (re-)discovered
 “Techfood” will improve and catch on
 Climate change will impact what’s available and where

 Eating habits will evolve around:

 Efficiencies
 Food fads and explorations
 Perceptions of what is “safe food” and what is “nutritious”
 Scientific learning
 Food prescriptions
 Impact on the environment
CHANGE IS AFOOT IN THE FOOD SECTOR

 The current model of global food production and food companies will (continue to) change dramatically
 “Techfoods” will influence food production; “fast food” and ready-to-eat options, especially
 Southern Hemisphere will drive introduction of “new” foods to the North
 Localized processing & preparation options will proliferate and cater to specialized dietary and taste demands
 Technology will cut food waste at production and store levels
 Packaging will be transformed
 Food safety issues will continue, especially for the world’s poor
 The rich will not escape, however, due to superbugs, etc.
 Transport will be revolutionized
 Block chain and other tech advances are sure to effect the food business
WE ARE GETTING SMARTER ABOUT NUTRITION

 Nutrition will be better understood, and mainstreamed:

 The wealthy will benefit most
 Focus on curbing obesity (economics as a driver)
 Science will be more exact
 Food prescriptions will be the norm
 Instrumentation & knowledge will allow for “precision nutrition”
 Children will be the vector for food and nutrition education and behavior change

But there will be major challenges due—especially—to

loss of biodiversity and the impact of climate change
on food availability, safety, cost, and micronutrient content
AGRICULTURE NEEDS ATTENTION; IT IS GETTING SOME
 Africa is investing again in agriculture
 The BRICS are investing heavily
 The 2008 financial, fuel, and food crisis woke people up (for a while, at least)
 Non-government donors are engaging
 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation since 2007; Rockefeller renewing commitment
 AGRA (Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa)
 Technology is bringing new options into play
 Precision ag
 Remote “treatments”: drones, weather, soil monitors, reporting
 Cell phone payment systems
 Block chain
 Etc.
THERE IS BAD NEWS ABOUT AGRICULTURE (AND IT’S PRETTY BAD)

 Folks are back asleep after the 2008/9 wake-up call

 Maize, wheat, rice; maize, wheat, rice; maize, wheat, rice, and…soy
 Ag companies are consolidating
 We haven’t learned from GMOs, threatening stem cell, CRSPR (gene editing), and more
 Farmers and ag scientists globally are OLD
 Species are disappearing at unprecedented rates (and we don’t know what we are losing)
 Natural disasters are on the upswing
 Nobody seems close to solving the water challenges
 Ag still isn’t sexy
WILL THE US BE IMPORTING ALL ITS FOOD?
“America desperately needs young people to repopulate our farm and ranch lands. This survey reveals
the daunting challenges they face…If nothing more is done to help transition young people into
American agriculture, we will be importing all our food.” -- Dr. Kathleen Merrigan, GWU

U.S. Farmers under 40 are very different Farmers under 40 list key challenges

The farmers are diverse and entrepreneurial Access to land

Almost 70% have degrees beyond high school Student loan debt

75% didn’t grow up on farms Limited skilled farm labor

60% are women Lack of affordable health insurance

BUILDING A FUTURE WITH FARMERS II: RESULTS AND

RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE NATIONAL YOUNG FARMER
SURVEY -© National Young Farmers Coalition, November 2017
US FARMERS SURVEYED IN 2011 LISTED KEY ISSUES

 Supplying the growing global demand for commodities arising from developing
economies and world population growth
 Availability and price of land for expansion
 New government mandates and regulations
 Stability, development and fluctuations in global financial markets
 Impact of global trade policies on food security and the supply and demand for
commodities
 Development and use of bio-based fuels
-- CaseIH.com 2011
10 THINGS TO DO NOW
Start with what’s good for “us” and “them” at the same time
1. Reduce food loss and waste
2. Build transportation & storage solutions; leap-frog costly, outmoded, unsafe, unusable, corrupt
systems
3. Make food safety a global priority
4. Equitably involve women
5. Urgently address age issues globally
6. Fix broken (and unfair) market systems and boost adoption rates
7. Study and address crop and animal diseases, pests, and threats
8. Sync up agriculture & nutrition goals, policies, and programs
9. Protect biodiversity & explore unfamiliar plants and animals
10. Move agriculture and health out of silos, into closer collaboration
ANOTHER THING TO DO: SUPPORT SCHOOL MEAL PROGRAMS
The particular power of school food programs comes from the entirety of the benefits:
 integration of education, health/nutrition, and agriculture—the 3 pillars of development within one
program
 the anchoring of the programs in schools
 the involvement of all levels of society
 the intergenerational impact

School feeding works:

 to reduce short-term hunger
 to improve family food security and reduce poverty
 for improving school enrolment, attendance and retention, and for reducing school dropout rates
 for cognitive functioning, education, and learning
SCHOOL FOOD PROGRAMS ALSO WORK

 To improve child behaviours and reduce depression by reducing children’s short-term and
chronic hunger and contributing to household food security
 For addressing caloric and specific nutritional needs
 For achieving gender balance in schools
 As a safety net, for social protection
 For agricultural and community development
 To create jobs, particularly for relatively low-skilled women and youth
 To limit the negative effects of stunting
 To build and sustain political support
 For nutrition education and intergenerational improvements
 In emergency and post-emergency situations--man-made or due to natural disasters
TO SUM IT UP, THE HEADLINES ARE

 41.2m Americans live in food-insecure households

 700,000 American children are very food insecure
 Black and Hispanic American households are the most food insecure
 World hunger is on the rise
 You can’t know hunger until you feel it yourself
 Hunger has serious consequences
 Obesity is matching hunger as nutrition problem
MORE HEADLINES FOR YOU

 Food systems are changing; change is afoot in the food sector

 We are getting smarter about nutrition
 Agriculture needs attention; it is getting some
 There is bad news about agriculture (and it’s pretty bad)
 Will the U.S. be importing all its food in the future?
 Act now: 10 things good for “us” and for “them” at the same time
 Support school meal programs
GLOBAL CHILD NUTRITION FOUNDATION (GCNF)
A global network of leaders from governments, industry, academia, and nonprofit organizations
Focus on nutritious, locally-sourced school meals
Partners: LIC and MIC governments, UN, non-profits, academic and technical partners, private sector
Based in Seattle since 2014, GCNF activities include:
 Global Child Nutrition Forum: annual gathering of leaders in school meal programs
 Global Survey of School Meal Programs
 Gene White Lifetime Achievement Award: for individuals who contributed to reducing child hunger
 Strategic support to governments and partners
 Private Sector Engagement and GCNF Business Network
 Food safety & quality; food & nutrition education
 Global network development & facilitation
 Studies, reports, advocacy
SOME THINGS TO READ, VIEW, AND THINK ABOUT
Future of Food?
 What is the Future of Food? Agricultural trends (3 min video, Now This World, April 14, 2015)
 Clean Chicken: Never Born or Slaughtered (3 min video, The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2017)
 Future of Food & Agriculture (infographic, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, 2017)
 Next Generation Food Systems (infographics by Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist, Sept. 6, 2017)
 A Farm Grows in the City (by Betsy McCay, The Wall Street Journal, May 14, 2017)
 A Semi-Autonomous Cricket Farm to Feed the World (by Carl Engelking, Discover Magazine, Dec. 19, 2017)
 The Future of Food Includes Insect Cuisine, Edible Packaging, Sea Vegetables and More (by Laura Reilly, Tampa
Bay Times, Jan. 10, 2018)
 Clean Meat (a16z, 25 mins podcast, Bruce Friedrich, David Lee, Uma
 Valeti, and Kyle Russell, Andreessen Horowitz, Nov. 23, 2016)
What can be done? Testimony to the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee
School meal programs: www.gcnf.org https//:hgsf-org https//:wfp.org/schoolfeeding
 THANK YOU!

arlene@gcnf.org
will@gcnf.org
Source: Home-Grown School Feeding Resource Framework, by FAO, GCNF, IFAD, NEPAD, PCD, WFP 2018