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Chapter 5
How Do The Risk and Term Structure Affect
Interest Rates?
5-1
Chapter Preview
5-2
Chapter Preview
5-3
Chapter Preview
5-4
Chapter Preview
5-5
Risk Structure of Interest Rates
5-6
Risk Structure
of Long Bonds in the U.S.
5-7
Risk Structure
of Long Bonds in the U.S.
5-8
Factors Affecting Risk Structure
of Interest Rates
• Default Risk
• Liquidity
5-9
Default Risk Factor
5-10
Default Risk Factor (cont.)
5-11
Increase in Default Risk
on Corporate Bonds
5-12
Analysis of Figure 5.2: Increase in
Default on Corporate Bonds
5-13
Default Risk Factor (cont.)
5-14
Bond Ratings
5-15
Case: Enron and the Baa-Aaa spread
5-17
Decrease in Liquidity
of Corporate Bonds
5-18
Analysis of Figure 5.1: Corporate Bond
Becomes Less Liquid
5-19
Liquidity Factor (cont.)
5-20
Income Taxes Factor
5-21
Income Taxes Factor
5-22
Income Taxes Factor
5-23
Tax Advantages of Municipal Bonds
5-24
Analysis of Figure 5.3:
Tax Advantages of Municipal Bonds
5-25
Term Structure of Interest Rates
5-26
Term Structure Facts to Be Explained
5-27
Interest Rates on Different Maturity
Bonds Move Together
5-28
Term Structure Facts to Be Explained
1. Expectations Theory
– Pure Expectations Theory explains 1 and 2,
but not 3
2. Market Segmentation Theory
– Market Segmentation Theory explains 3, but not 1
and 2
3. Liquidity Premium Theory
– Solution: Combine features of both Pure
Expectations Theory and Market Segmentation
Theory to get Liquidity Premium Theory and explain
all facts
5-30
Expectations Theory
5-31
Expectations Theory
5-32
Expectations Theory
(1 it )(1 i ) 1 1 it i
e
t 1
e
t 1
it (i ) 1
e
t 1
5-34
Expectations Theory
5-35
Expectations Theory
2i2t it i e
t 1
it i e
i2t t 1 (1)
2
5-36
Expectations Theory
5-37
More generally for n-period bond…
it it 1 it 2 ... it n1
int (2)
n
• Don’t let this seem complicated. Equation
2 simply states that the interest rate on a
long-term bond equals the average of short
rates expected to occur over life of the
long-term bond.
5-38
More generally for n-period bond…
• Numerical example
– One-year interest rate over the next five years
are expected to be 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, and 9%
• Interest rate on two-year bond today:
(5% + 6%)/2 = 5.5%
• Interest rate for five-year bond today:
(5% + 6% + 7% + 8% + 9%)/5 = 7%
• Interest rate for one- to five-year bonds today:
5%, 5.5%, 6%, 6.5% and 7%
5-39
Expectations Theory
and Term Structure Facts
5-40
Expectations Theory
and Term Structure Facts
5-41
Expectations Theory
and Term Structure Facts
5-42
Expectations Theory
and Term Structure Facts
5-43
Market Segmentation Theory
5-44
Market Segmentation Theory
5-45
Liquidity Premium Theory
5-46
Liquidity Premium Theory
5-47
Liquidity Premium Theory
it i
e
t 1 i
e
t2 ... i
e
t n1
int nt
(3)
n
• We can also see this graphically…
5-48
Liquidity Premium Theory
5-49
Numerical Example
5-50
Numerical Example
5-52
Market
Predictions
of Future
Short Rates
5-53
Evidence on the Term Structure
5-54
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves
5-55
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves, 1980–
2008
5-56
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves
5-57
Case: Interpreting Yield Curves
5-58
Mini-case: The Yield Curve as a
Forecasting Tool
5-59