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However, China's open-door policy in 1978 was the year that marked the new era of Hong Kong and its re-birth as a
major economic and financial center. As manufacturing moved out of Hong Kong to mainland China, it was replaced by
services, and Hong Kong GDP boomed as trade and investment links with China exploded. Global financial services
also flourished because of Hong Kong’s British-style legal system and the fact that English is spoken fluently both of
which supported Hong Kong’s financial networks with London, New York and other leading global cities. In additional,
Hong Kong has had long existing stock market (since 1891).
Today it is an important market for IPO (second only to New York last year) and funds management. Today Hong Kong
is the world’s sixth largest foreign exchange trading center, with 4.7% of the world’s total trades (or $238 billion per day).
71 of the largest 100 banks in the world have an operation in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is the world's 9th largest
international banking center in terms of the volume of external transactions, and the second largest in Asia after Japan.
The banking sector plays a vital role in establishing Hong Kong as a major loan syndication center in the region. The
Hong Kong Stock Exchange is Asia's third largest stock exchange in terms of market capitalization behind the Tokyo
Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange and fifth largest in the world. As of 31 Dec 2010, the Hong Kong
Stock Exchange had 1,413 listed companies with a combined market capitalization of $2.7 trillion.
Hong Kong was hit hard by the Asian Financial Crisis that struck the region in mid-1997, just at the time of the handover
of the colony back to Chinese administrative control. The crisis prompted a collapse in share prices and the property
market. However, unlike most Asian countries, Hong Kong (as well as mainland China) maintained their currencies’
exchange rates with the U.S. dollar rather than devaluing.
Objective of Lecture 1
E C F$ ,t E C F E S
m
j ,t j ,t
j 1
Where CFj,t represents the amount of cash flow
denominated in a particular foreign currency j at the
end of period t,
Where Sj,t represents the exchange rate at which the
foreign currency can be converted into U.S. dollars at
the end of period t.
Measured in U.S. dollars per unit of the foreign currency.
7
Changes in the Value of a MNC
V changes result from:
MNC Valuation
(1) Changes in foreign market conditions: Will
Model impact on foreign currency earnings and thus on
foreign currency cash flows (CF).
E CF j ,t xE ( Sj , t )
(2) Changes in political environment and
n political risk (policy of foreign government
V
towards MNC): Will impact on foreign currency
1 k
earnings and thus on foreign currency cash
t
t 1
flows (CF).
(3) Changes in the MNC’s cost of capital, i.e.,
the required return (k).
(4) Changes in the exchange rate resulting
from exposure to exchange rate risk (S); noting
that:
– Stronger foreign currency will increase
U.S. dollar equivalent of cash flows.
– Weaker foreign currency will decrease
U.S. dollar equivalent of cash flows.
Exchange Rate Impacts on
Operating Profits
Japanese Multinationals Yen in 2011
Sony, which generates
more than 70 percent of
revenue outside of Japan,
says it loses about 2 billion
yen of annual operating
profit for each yen gain
against the U.S. currency.
Toyota notes that every
one-yen gain in the
Japanese currency against
the dollar reduces Toyota’s
annual operating profit by
30 billion yen.
Valuation Models for Financial
Assets
Bonds: Present value of:
Coupon payments + Par Value (face or maturity value)
In U.S., par value = $1,000
Discount rate (k) is adjusted for opportunity cost and risk
adjustments.
Stocks: Present value of:
Future cash flow (Dividends, earnings)
Foreign currency denominated financial assets:
Valuation model adjustment needs to be made
for changes in exchange rates.
Do Exchange Rates Affect Equity
Returns?
Returns for an investor in the United States investing foreign stock
market
Memo:
United States (DJIA) +12.4% +12.4%
Euro-zone - 0.9% - 9.2%
Exchange Rates in 2010
JPY (Equity Market: GBP (Equity Market:
-LC1.6%; +USD10.0%) +LC11.7%; +USD6.9%)
Exchange Rates in 2010
EUR (Equity Market: HKD (Equity Market:
-LC0.9%; -USD9.2%) +LC8.6%; +USD8.4%)
Exchange Rate Adjusted Equity
Returns in 2011
Period Local Currency Return Return in U.S. Dollars
Dec 31, 2010 –
Aug 10, 2011
Look over the above data, and make sure you can explain what happened to
produce the returns in U.S. dollar as noted.
Do Exchange Rates Affect Bond
Returns?
Exchange Rate Adjusted Bond
Returns Exchange Rate Adjusted
Returns on Government
Return on German Bonds,
1994 - 1998 Bonds, 2005
Year Local Market % Change USD Return