Documente Academic
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Post-Graduate Program
-Advanced Financial Management
-ACFN 631
12/13/2018
Course Overview
• Course Outline.docx
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CHAPTER-1
RISK MANAGEMENT &
LEVERAGE ANALYSIS
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Lecture Flow:
Concept Uncertainty and Risk
Types of Risk
Measurement of Risk ( Standard Deviation and
Beta)
Systematic and Unsystematic Risk
Diversification and Portfolio Risk
The Security Market Line(SML)
Markowitz's portfolio theory
The Capital Asset Pricing Model(CAPM) and
Arbitrage Pricing Theory(APT)
Fama-French 3-Factor Model
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Con’t…
• The concept of leverage
• Introduction
• What is business risk and financial risk?
• Types of leverages
– Operating leverage
– Financial leverage
– Combined leverage
• Effects of financial plan on EPS and ROE at a
constant EBIT
• Effects of financial plan on EPS and ROE at a varying
EBIT
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Learning Objectives
• After you read this chapter, you should be able to
answer the following questions:
What do we mean by risk aversion?
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Con’t…
• Explain the concept of financial leverage.
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Risk --- What is this?
• Consider the two cases.
1)Mr Ramesh has put his money in National Bank of Ethiopia
(NBE) bond where he is going to get 12% p.a.. He is really happy
with the rate of return. Will he have sleepless nights, if the
economy goes into recession?.
Answer: Of course no.
2) Mr. Ramesh is very bullish/Optimistic with the stock market
and invests money into equity diversified fund with the
expectation that he will get 15% return. Will he have sleepless
nights if economy goes into deep recession, and now he feels that
he may get negative returns of say 5-7%?
Answer: Of course yes.
• In the second situation, he has a fear, which is the result of huge
difference in his expected return and the actual return, which he
may get. This difference itself is the risk that he bears. Does he face
this kind of difference in the first situation? No. So there is no risk.
What is risk ?
• Literally risk is defined as “exposing to danger or
hazard”.
Which is perceived as negative terms.
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Con’t…
In finance,
• Risk refers to the likelihood that we will receive
a return on an investment that is different from
the return we expected to make.
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Con’t…
• Thus, risk includes not only the bad outcomes (returns
that are lower than expected), but also good
outcomes (returns that are higher than expected).
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What is Risk ?
• Chinese Symbol for Risk: The first symbol is the
symbol for “danger” while the second is the symbol for
“opportunity”, making risk a mix of danger and
opportunity.
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Sources of Risk Con’t…
Business Risk:
• Uncertainty of income flows caused by the
nature of a firm’s business
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Source of risk Con’t…
Financial Risk
• Uncertainty caused by the use of debt financing.
(Level of Financial Leverage)
• Borrowing requires fixed payments which must
be paid ahead of payments to stockholders.
• The use of debt increases uncertainty of
stockholder income and causes an increase in the
stock’s risk premium.
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Source of Risk Con’t…
Liquidity Risk
• Uncertainty is introduced by the secondary
market for an investment.
– How long will it take to convert an investment
into cash?
– How certain is the price that will be received?
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Source of Risk Con’t…
• Exchange Rate Risk:
• Uncertainty of return is introduced by acquiring
securities denominated in a currency different
from that of the investor.
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Source of Risk Con’t…
• Country Risk:
• Political risk is the uncertainty of returns caused
by the possibility of a major change in the
political or economic environment in a country.
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Classification of Risk:
Diversifiable and Non-diversifiable Risk
• Although there are many reasons why actual returns may
differ from expected returns, we can group the reasons
into two categories:
A. Market wide/Systematic Risk and
B. Firm-specific/ Unsystematic Risk.
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Con’t…
• 2) Unsystematic Risk – The risk which is specific to a
company or industry is known as unsystematic risk.
• Some risk may affect only one or a few firms, and this
risk is categorized as firm-specific risk.
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Con’t…
• For instance, consider Boeing’s investment in a
Super Jumbo jet. This investment is based on the
assumption that airlines want a larger airplane and
are willing to pay a high price for it. If Boeing has
misjudged this demand, it will clearly have an
impact on Boeing’s earnings and value, but it
should not have a significant effect on other firms in
the market.
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Con’t…
• Competition: The risk could also arise from
competitors proving to be stronger or weaker than
anticipated, called competitive risk.
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Con’t…
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Con’t…
• Activity-1
• Why Diversification Reduces or Eliminates Firm-
Specific Risk: Give an Intuitive Explanation
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How is Unsystematic Risk
Reduced?
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What is investment risk?
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Probability distribution
Stock X
Stock Y
Rate of
-20 0 15 50 return (%)
Which stock is riskier? Why?
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Answer: Con’t…
• The tighter (or more peaked) the probability distribution, the
more likely it is that the actual outcome will be close to the
expected value, and hence the less likely it is that the actual
return will end up far below the expected return.
– Thus, the tighter the probability distribution, the lower the risk
assigned to a stock.
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Con’t…
• The way we will calculate the variance and standard
deviation will depend on the specific situation.
• In this section, we are looking at historical returns;
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Example
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Measuring the Expected Risk of a Single Asset
• Standard deviation is the most common statistical
indicator of an asset’s risk (stand alone risk).
• S.D measures the variability of a set of observations.
• The larger the standard deviation, the higher the
probability that returns will be far below the expected
return.
• Coefficient of variation is an alternative measure of
stand-alone risk.
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Con’t…
• Standard deviation is indicator of risk asset (an
absolute measure of risk) of that asset’s expected
return, σ (Ri), which measures the dispersion
around its expected value.
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Con’t…
3. Square each deviation
Deviationi = (ri − E(Ri))2
4. Multiply the squared deviations by the probability
of occurrence for its related outcome.
Pi(ri − E(Ri) )2
5. Sum these products to obtain the variance of the
probability distribution:
6.
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– Coefficient of Variation is a statistical measurement
of relative dispersion of an asset return. It is useful in
comparing the risk of assets with differing average or
expected return.
– Formula for CV is:
Coefficient of Variation = Standard Deviation
Average or Expected Return
CV = σ (Ri)
E(Ri)
_ It is often preferable to measure dispersion as an asset’s variance,
Var(Rj) where it is defined in equation below:
Var(Rj)= σ 2 (Ri) = [R j - E(Ri) ]2 x Pr j
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Determining Standard Deviation
(Risk Measure)
n
s= ( Ri - R )2( Pi )
i=1
Standard Deviation, s, is a statistical measure of
the variability of a distribution around its mean.
It is the square root of variance.
Note, this is for a discrete distribution.
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How to Determine the Expected Return and
Standard Deviation
Stock BW
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi)
The
-.15 .10 -.015 expected
-.03 .20 -.006 return, R,
.09 .40 .036 for Stock
.21 .20 .042 BW is .09
or 9%
.33 .10 .033
Sum 1.00 .090
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How to Determine the Expected Return and
Standard Deviation
Stock BW
Ri Pi (Ri)(Pi) (Ri - R )2(Pi)
-.15 .10 -.015 .00576
-.03 .20 -.006 .00288
.09 .40 .036 .00000
.21 .20 .042 .00288
.33 .10 .033 .00576
Sum 1.00 .090 .01728
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MEASURING EXPECTED (EX ANTE)
RETURN AND RISK
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN
n
E (R) = pi Ri
i=1
STANDARD DEVIATION OF RETURN
s = [ pi (Ri - E(R) )2]
• While both products have the same expected value, they differ in
the distribution of possible outcomes. When we calculate the
standard deviation around the expected value, we see that Product
B has a larger standard deviation.
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Con’t…
• PORTFOLIO: is a collection or a group of investment
assets. If you hold only one asset, you suffer a loss if the
return turns out to be very low.
• If you hold two assets, the chance of suffering a loss is
reduced and returns on both assets must be low for you to
suffer a loss.
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Con’t…
• It is the total portfolio risk and return that is important.
The risk and return of individual assets should not be
analyzed in isolation; rather they should be analyzed in
terms of how they affect the risk and return of the
portfolio in which they are included.
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Ex Post Portfolio Returns
Simply the Weighted Average of Past Returns
n
Rp x
i 1
i Ri
Where :
xi relative weight of asset i
Ri Actual return on asset i
Rp Portifolio Expost Re turn
n Numberofstock sin theportfolio
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145
Portfolio-Expected Return
• The expected return on a portfolio, ˆrp, is simply the
weighted average of the expected returns on the individual
assets in the portfolio, with the weights being the fraction of
the total portfolio invested in each asset:
n
Formula : E(Rp)=
WiRi
i 1
Where:
Rp = Expected Return of the Portfolio.
Wi = The weights attached for each security.
ri = Expected return of a security.
n = No of stocks/securities in a portfolio.
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Con’t…
• Note; “Wi” is the fraction of the portfolio’s dollar value
invested in stock/security i, that is, the value of investment in
stock i divided by the total value of the portfolio. Thus, the sum
of Wi’s must be 1.00.
• Example: Consider a portfolio of three stocks A, B, and C,
with expected returns of 16%, 12%, and 20% respectively. The
portfolio consists of 50% stock A, 25% stock B, and 25%
stock C.
• Required: what is the expected return on this portfolio?
• E(Rp)= .16*50+.12*25+.20*25= 16% which is the expected
return of a portfolio
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21 - 62
PORTFOLIO EXPECTED RETURN Con’t…
Example-2: A portfolio consists of four securities with expected
returns of 12%, 15%, 18%, and 20% respectively. The proportions of
portfolio value invested in these securities are 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.20
respectively.
n
E(RP) = wi E(Ri)
i=1
where E(RP) = expected portfolio return
wi = weight assigned to security i
E(Ri) = expected return on security i
n = number of securities in the portfolio
Then expected return on the portfolio of the above Example is:
E(RP) = 0.2(12%) + 0.3(15%) + 0.3(18%) + 0.2(20%)
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= 16.3%
Ex Ante Portfolio Returns
Simply the Weighted Average of Expected Returns
Example-3:
Relative Expected Weighted
Weight Return Return
Stock X 0.400 8.0% 0.03
Stock Y 0.350 15.0% 0.05
Stock Z 0.250 25.0% 0.06
Expected Portfolio Return = 14.70%
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145- 64
21
Risk in a Portfolio Context
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21 - 65
Con’t…
• Portfolio risk can be reduced by the simple kind of diversification,
that is; when different assets are added to the portfolio, the total risk
tends to decrease.
• Total risk of portfolio consists of systematic risk & unsystematic risk
and this total risk is measured by the variance and standard deviation
of the rate of return overtime.
• As the portfolio size increases, the total risk decreases up to a certain
level. Beyond that limit, risk cannot be reduced.
– This indicates that spreading out the assets beyond certain level can’t be
expected to reduce the portfolio’s total risk below the level of un-
diversifiable risk.
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Investors Risk Tolerance
• Most people do not like risk—they are risk averse. Does this mean a
risk averse person will not take on risk? No—they will take on risk if they
feel they are compensated for it.
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Con’t…
• A risk neutral person is indifferent toward risk. Risk
neutral persons do not need compensation for bearing
risk.
• A risk preference person likes risk—someone even
willing to pay to take on risk.
Therefore:
• Portfolio theory always assumes that investors are
basically risk averse, meaning that, given a choice
between two assets with equal rates of return, they will
select the asset with the lower level of risk.
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Modern Portfolio Theory
( Markowitz's):
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Harry Markowitz
• In the early 1960s, the investment community talked
about risk, but there was no specific measure for the
term.
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Risk and Return – Modern Portfolio Theory
(MPT)
• Prior to the establishment of Modern Portfolio Theory,
most people only focused upon investment
returns…they ignored risk.
• With MPT, investors had a tool that they could use to
dramatically reduce the risk of the portfolio without a
significant reduction in the expected return of the
portfolio.
• Markowitz showed that the variance of the rate of
return was a meaningful measure of portfolio risk
under a reasonable set of assumptions, and he derived
the formula for computing the variance of a portfolio.
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Assumptions of the Markowitz Model:
• The Markowitz model is based on several
assumptions regarding investor behaviour:
1. Investors consider each investment alternative as
being represented by a probability distribution of
expected returns over some holding period.
2. Investors maximize one-period expected utility, and
their utility curves demonstrate diminishing
marginal utility of wealth.
3. Investors estimate the risk of the portfolio on the
basis of the variability of expected returns.
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Con’t…
4. Investors base decisions solely on expected return
and risk, so their utility curves are a function of
expected return and the expected variance (or
standard deviation) of returns only.
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Con’t…
• Therefore:
Under these assumptions, a single asset or
portfolio of assets is considered to be efficient if
no other asset or portfolio of assets offers higher
expected return with the same (or lower) risk, or
lower risk with the same (or higher) expected
return.
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Diversifying unsystematic risk using a
two-share portfolio
• The simplest portfolio to consider is that containing two
shares.
• Diversification is the combination of assets whose returns do not
vary with one another in the same direction at the same time.
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Con’t…
• While the positive or negative sign indicates the direction of the
co-movement.
• The closer the correlation coefficient is to +1 or -1, the stronger the
association.
– +1 is perfect positive correlation.
– -1 is perfect negative correlation.
– 0.0 no relationship
• If the variables move together, they are
positively correlated (a positive correlation
coefficient).
• If the variables move in opposite direction, they
are negatively correlated (a negative correlation).
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Con’t…
• A correlation of +1.0 indicates that the variables move
up and down together, the relative magnitude of the
movements is exactly the same (perfect positive
correlation).
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Con’t…
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Perfect Negatively Correlated Returns over Time
Returns
% A two-asset portfolio
made up of equal
parts of Stock A and
B would
be riskless. There
would be no
10% variability
of the portfolios
returns over time.
Returns on Stock A
Returns on Stock B
Returns on Portfolio
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Con’t…
If (A,B) =+1 no unsystematic risk can be diversified away
If (A,B =-1 all unsystematic risk will be diversified away
If (A,B)= 0 no correlation between the two securities’ returns
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Con’t…
• In practice it is difficult to find two securities whose
correlation coefficient is exactly -1, but the most
commonly quoted example is that of an umbrella
manufacturer and an ice cream company.
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COVARIANCE OF RETURNS
• Covariance measures how closely security returns
move together. The covariance between possible returns
for securities J and K,
• When we consider two assets in the portfolio, we are
concerned with the co-movement of security movement.
• Co-movements between the returns of securities are measured by
covariance (an absolute measure) and coefficient of correlation (a
relative measure).
• It can be:
• positive Covariance,
• negative Covariance, and
• zero Covariance,
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Con’t…
• A positive covariance between the returns of two securities
indicates that the returns of the two securities tend to move
in the same direction.
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Con’t….
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State of Probability Return on Deviation of Return on Deviation of Product of the
nature asset 1 the return on asset 2 the return on deviations
asset 1 from its asset 2 from times
mean its mean probability
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (2) x (4) x (6)
Thus the covariance between the returns on the two assets is 26.0.
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Coefficient of Correlation
• Correlation measures the degree of linear relationship to which
two variables, such as returns on two assets, move together.
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Co-effient of Correlation
Cov (Ri , Rj)
Cor (Ri , Rj) or ij = si sj
sij
=
si sj
sij = ij . si . sj
where ij = correlation coefficient between the returns on
securities i and j
sij = covariance between the returns on securities
i and j
si , sj = standard deviation of the returns on securities
i and j
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That is:
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Grouping Individual Assets into
Portfolios
• The riskiness of a portfolio that is made of different risky assets is
a function of three different factors:
– the riskiness of the individual assets that make up the portfolio
– the relative weights of the assets in the portfolio
– the degree of co-movement of returns of the assets making up the portfolio.
• The standard deviation of a two-asset portfolio may be measured
using the Markowitz model:
s p s w s w 2w1w2 1,2s 1s 2
2 2
1 1
2 2
2 2
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PORTFOLIO RISK : 2 – SECURITY CASE
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PORTFOLIO RISK : 3 – SECURITY CASE
sp = [ wi wj ij si sj ] ½
Example : w1 = 0.5 , w2 = 0.3, and w3 = 0.2
s1 = 10%, s2 = 15%, s3 = 20%
12 = 0.3, 13 = 0.5, 23 = 0.6
sp = [w12 s12 + w22 s22 + w32 s32 + 2 w1 w2 12 s1 s2
+ 2w2 w3 13 s1 s3 + 2w2 w3 23s2 s3] ½
= [0.52 x 102 + 0.32 x 152 + 0.22 x 202
+ 2 x 0.5 x 0.3 x 0.3 x 10 x 15
+ 2 x 0.5 x 0.2 x 05 x 10 x 20
+ 2 x 0.3 x 0.2 x 0.6 x 15 x 20] ½
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Risk of a Four-asset Portfolio
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Risk of a Four-asset Portfolio
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Example
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Portfolio Expected Return
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Portfolio Standard Deviation
s p WA2s A2 (1 WA ) 2 s B2 2WA (1 WA ) AB s A s B
0.32 ( 0.22 ) 0.7 2 ( 0.4 2 ) 2( 0.3)( 0.7 )( 0.4)( 0.2)( 0.4)
0.309
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Equal Risk and Return—Changing
Correlations
• Consider first the case in which both assets have the same
expected return and expected standard deviation of return. As an
example, let us assume
E(R1) = 0.20
σ1 = 0.10
E(R2) = 0.20
σ2 = 0.10
• To show the effect of different covariance's, assume different
levels of correlation between the two assets. Consider the
following examples where the two assets have equal weights
in the portfolio (W1 = 0.50; W2 = 0.50). Therefore, the only value
that changes in each example is the correlation between the returns
for the two assets. Recall that, Covij = rijσiσj
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Con’t…
• Consider the following alternative correlation coefficients and the
covariance's they yield. The covariance term in the equation will be
equal to r1,2 (0.10)(0.10) because both standard deviations are 0.10.
a. r1,2 = 1.00; Cov1,2 = (1.00)(0.10)(0.10) = 0.010
b. r1,2 = 0.50; Cov1,2 = (0.50)(0.10)(0.10) = 0.005
c. r1,2 = 0.00; Cov1,2 = 0.000(0.10)(0.10) = 0.000
d. r1,2 = –0.50; Cov1,2 = (–0.50)(0.10)(0.10) = –0.005
e. r1,2 = –1.00; Cov1,2 = (–1.00)(0.10)(0.10) =–0.01
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Con’t…
s p s w s w 2w1w2 1,2s 1s 2
2 2
1 1
2 2
2 2
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Con’t…
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Con’t…
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Exhibit
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Standard Deviation of a Portfolio:
With Different Returns and Risk
• Combining Stocks with Different Returns and Risk :
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Standard Deviation of a Portfolio:
Different Returns and Risk
• Two Stocks with Different Returns and Risk
Asset E(Ri ) Wi σ 2i σi
1 .10 .50 .0049 .07
2 .20 .50 .0100 .10
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Standard Deviation of a Portfolio:
With Constant Correlation but Changing Weights of Assets
Asset E(Ri ) σ 2i σi
1 .10 .0049 .07
2 .20 .0100 .10
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Constant Correlation with Changing Weights
of Assets
• Constant Correlation with Changing Weights
– Assume the correlation is 0 in the earlier example and let
the weight vary as shown below.
– Portfolio return and risk are (See Exhibit 7.13):
Case W1 W2 E(Ri) E(σport)
f 0.00 1.00 0.20 0.1000
g 0.20 0.80 0.18 0.0812
h 0.40 0.60 0.16 0.0662
i 0.50 0.50 0.15 0.0610
j 0.60 0.40 0.14 0.0580
k 0.80 0.20 0.12 0.0595
l 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.0700
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Exhibit
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Diversification Potential
• The potential of an asset to diversify a portfolio is
dependent upon the degree of co-movement of returns of
the asset with those other assets that make up the
portfolio.
• In a simple, two-asset case, if the returns of the two assets
are perfectly negatively correlated it is possible
(depending on the relative weighting) to eliminate all
portfolio risk.
• This is demonstrated through the following chart.
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Constant Correlation with
Changing Weights of Assets
Expected Standard Correlation
Perfect Positive
Asset Return Deviation Coefficient Correlation – no
A 5.0% 15.0% 1 diversification
B 14.0% 40.0%
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Example of Portfolio Combinations
and Correlation
Expected Standard Correlation
Positive
Asset Return Deviation Coefficient Correlation – weak
A 5.0% 15.0% 0.5 diversification
B 14.0% 40.0% potential
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Example of Portfolio Combinations
and Correlation
Expected Standard Correlation No Correlation –
Asset Return Deviation Coefficient some
A 5.0% 15.0% 0 diversification
B 14.0% 40.0% potential
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Example of Portfolio Combinations
and Correlation
Expected Standard Correlation
Negative
Asset Return Deviation Coefficient Correlation –
A 5.0% 15.0% -0.5 greater
B 14.0% 40.0% diversification
potential
Portfolio Components Portfolio Characteristics
Expected Standard
Weight of A Weight of B Return Deviation
100.00% 0.00% 5.00% 15.0%
90.00% 10.00% 5.90% 12.0%
80.00% 20.00% 6.80% 10.6%
70.00% 30.00% 7.70% 11.3%
60.00% 40.00% 8.60% 13.9%
50.00% 50.00% 9.50% 17.5%
40.00% 60.00% 10.40% 21.6%
30.00% 70.00% 11.30% 26.0%
20.00% 80.00% 12.20% 30.6%
10.00% 90.00% 13.10% 35.3%
0.00% 100.00% 14.00% 40.0%
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Example of Portfolio Combinations
and Correlation Perfect Negative
Expected Standard Correlation Correlation –
Asset Return Deviation Coefficient greatest
A 5.0% 15.0% -1 diversification
B 14.0% 40.0% potential
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Diversification of a Two Asset Portfolio Demonstrated
Graphically
Expected Return B
AB = -0.5
12%
AB = -1
8%
AB = 0
AB= +1
A
4%
0%
Standard Deviation
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• ASSIGNMENT With Presentation:
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Arbitrage pricing theory
Fama-French 3-factor model
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Leverage Analysis
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The concept of Leverage
• The leverage concept is very general:
– It is not unique to business or finance, and it can be
used to analyze many different types of problems.
For example, other disciplines, such as economics
and engineering, use the same concept, and refer to it
as elasticity.
– When used in a financial setting, leverage measures
the behavior of interrelated variables, such as:
• output, revenue, earnings before interest and taxes
(EBIT), and earnings per share (EPS).
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Meaning of Leverage
• The term leverage refers to an increased means of
accomplishing some purpose.
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132
Types of Leverage
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133
Operating Leverage
• Operating Leverage measures the relationship
between Sales and Earning before interest and tax
(EBIT), specifically; it measures the effect of
changing levels of sales on EBIT.
• Earning before interest and tax = Total revenue – Total variable cost –
fixed cost.
• When the level of sales changes from its initial value,
the initial value of EBIT also changes.
• A simple indication of operating leverage is the
effect that a change in sales has an effect on earnings.
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Operating Leverage Con’t…
• Operating leverage can be calculated with the help of
the following formula:
OL = CM/EBIT
Where:
OL = Operating Leverage
CM= Contribution Margin, Sales – Variable Cost
EBIT= Earning Before Interest and Tax or Operating Income
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Operating Leverage, Con’t….
Degreeof
• Degree OfOperating
OperatingLeverage
Leverage (DOL)
(DOL) is defined
is defined as the resulting percentage change in
EBIT resulting from a percentage change in the
sales.
• it can be calculated with the help of the following
formula:
DOL= Percentage Change in EBIT
Percentage Change in Sales
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Degree of Operating Leverage Formula (DOL)
Con’t..
• The degree of
operating leverage
(DOL) is defined as
the percentage % Change in EBIT
change in the DOL
% Change in Sales
earnings before
interest and taxes EBIT/EBIT
DOL
(EBIT0 relative to a Sales/Sales
given percentage
change in sales.
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Con’t….
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Con’t…
• Comments:
• Operating leverage for B Company is higher than
that of A Company; B Company has a higher degree
of operating risk.
• The tendency of operating profit may vary
portionately with sales, is higher for B Company as
compared to A Company. Uses of Operating
Leverage
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Operating Leverage, Con’t….
Degree Of Operating Leverage (DOL)
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Operating Leverage, Con’t….
• Example-2: Assume that
Degree Of Operating the price
Leverage (DOL)per unit of
output (p) is Br. 10, and variable cost per unit of
output (VC) is Br. 4, and fixed cost (FC) is Br.
30,000, and the level of output (X) is 8000 units. By
using the formula EBIT is computed as follows:
EBIT = Total revenue – Total variable cost – fixed cost
EBIT = TP – TVC – FC
or EBIT = X (P – VC) – FC
EBIT = 8000 (Br. 10 – Br. 4) – Br. 30,000
12/13/2018 = Br. 18,000
141
Operating Leverage, Con’t….
Degree Of Operating Leverage (DOL)
• Now assume that the level of output increases from
8000 to 10,000 units. The resulting EBIT is
computed as:
EBIT = 10,000 (Br. 10 – Br. 4) – Br. 30,000
= Br. 30,000
– Percentage change in output = 2000/8000 = 25%
– Percentage change in EBIT = Br. 12000/Br. 18000 = 66.7%
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Operating Leverage, Con’t….
Degree Of Operating Leverage (DOL)
Coefficient of operating leverage = % change in EBIT
% change in output or Sales
Coefficient of operating leverage= 66.7%/25%= 2.67 times
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Financial Leverage
• Questions while Making the Financing Decision
– How should the investment project be financed?
– How does financing affect the shareholders’ risk, return and value?
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Financial Leverage Formula Con’t..
Financial leverage can be
calculated with the help of
• FL = EBIT/EPS
the following formula: Where:
FL = Op/PBT FL= Financial Leverage
Where: EBIT= Operating Profit
Fl= Financial Leverage EPS= Earning Per Share
Op=Operating Profit (EBIT)
PBT = Profit Before Tax
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Degree of Financial Leverage con’t…
• Financial leverage measures the relationship between
EBIT and earning per share (EPS). Specifically, it
reflects the effect of changing levels of EBIT on
EPS.
• The functional relationship between these two variables is
i.e. EPS = f (EBIT)
Federal income taxes (t)= (profit before taxes) (tax rate) = (EBIT– I) (t)
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Degree of Financial Leverage con’t…
profit after tax: profit before taxes – federal income taxes
(EBIT – I) – (EBIT – I) (t) or
(EBIT – I) (1 – t)
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Example-1
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Example-2
Assume that I = Br. 100,000, t = 0.4, E = Br. 80,000
N = 60,000, and EBIT = Br. 500,000. The EPS at this level of
EBIT is
Computed as:
EPS = (Br. 500,000 – Br. 100,000) (1 – 0.4) – Br. 80,000
60,000
= Br. 2.67
If EBIT increases from Br. 500,000 to Br. 600,000, the resulting
EPS is:
EPS = (Br. 60,000 – Br. 100,000) (1 – 0.4) – Br. 80,000
60,000
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= Br. 3.67
152
Example Con’t…
The financial leverage is computed as:
Percentage change in EBIT = Br. 100,000/Br. 500,000 = 20%
Percentage change
in EPS = Br. 1/Br. 2.67 = 37.45%
• DFL= % change in EPS/% change in EBIT
0.3745/0.20 = 1.87 times
The coefficient of financial leverage of 1.87 is interpreted as
follows:
A 1 percent change in EBIT from an initial value of Br.
500,000 produces a 1.87 percent change in EPS. Since
EBIT increased by 20 percent from its initial value, EPS
increased
12/13/2018 by 1.87 (0.20) = 0.374 or 37.4 percent. 153
Combined Leverage
• When the company uses both financial and
operating leverage to magnification of any change
in sales into a larger relative changes in earning per
share.
• Operating leverage affects a firm’s operating profit
(EBIT), while Financial leverage affects profit
after tax or the earnings per share.
• The degrees of operating and financial leverages is
combined to see the effect of total leverage on
EPS associated with a given change in sales.
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Combined Leverage Con’t…
• Combined leverage express the relationship
between the revenue in the account of sales and the
taxable income.
• Combined leverage is also called:
– Composite leverage or
– Total leverage.
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Combined Leverage con’t…
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Degree of Combined Leverage
con’t…
• The percentage change in a firm’s earning per share
(EPS) results from one percent change in sales.
• This is also equal to the firm’s degree of operating
leverage (DOL) times its degree of financial leverage
(DFL) at a particular level of sales.
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Degree of Combined Leverage con’t…
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Degree of Combined Leverage
con’t…
% Change in EBIT % Change in EPS % Change in EPS
% Change in Sales % Change in EBIT % Change in Sales
Q( s v) Q( s v) F Q( s v)
DCL
Q( s v) F Q( s v) F INT Q( s v) F INT
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159
THANK U
AND
HAVE A NICE DAY!
12/13/2018