Why Learn Probability?

• Nothing in life is certain. In everything we do, we

gauge the chances of successful outcomes, from
business to medicine to the weather
• A probability provides a quantitative description
of the chances or likelihoods associated with
various outcomes
• It provides a bridge between descriptive and
inferential statistics
Probability

Population Sample
Statistics
 Probabilistic vs Statistical
Reasoning
• Suppose I know exactly the proportions of
car makes in California. Then I can find the
probability that the first car I see in the street
is a Ford. This is probabilistic reasoning as I
know the population and predict the sample
• Now suppose that I do not know the
proportions of car makes in California, but
would like to estimate them. I observe a
random sample of cars in the street and then
I have an estimate of the proportions of the
population. This is statistical reasoning
 What is Probability?
• we used graphs and numerical measures to
describe data sets which were usually
samples.
• We measured “how often” using

Relative frequency = f/n

• As n gets larger,
Sample Population
And “How often”
= Relative frequency Probability
 Basic Concepts
• An experiment is the process by which an
observation (or measurement) is
obtained.
• An event is an outcome of an experiment,
usually denoted by a capital letter.
–The basic element to which probability
is applied
–When an experiment is performed, a
particular event either happens, or it
doesn’t!
EXPLORING RANDOM
VARIABLES
Lesson Objectives

At the end of this lesson, you are expected to:

• illustrate a random variable;
• classify random variables as discrete or
continuous; and
• find the possible values of a random variable.
Pre-Assessment
Recap:
The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called the sample space.
Lesson Introduction
If three coins are tossed, what numbers can be
assigned for the frequency of heads that will
occur?

If three cards are drawn from a deck, what

number can be assigned for the frequency of face
cards that will occur?

The answers to these questions require an

understanding of random variables.
Discussion Points

Suppose three cell phones are tested at

random. We want to find out the
number of defective cell phones that
occur. Thus, to each outcome in the
sample space we shall assign a value.
 Discussion Points
Suppose three cell phones are tested at random. We
want to find out the number of defective cell phones
that occur.
Possible Outcomes
NNN NDD
NND DND
NDN DDN
DNN DDD
 Discussion Points
To each outcome in the sample space we
shall assign a value.
0 - If there is no defective cell phone
1- if there is 1 defective cell phone
2- if there are two defective cell
phones
3 -if there are three defective cell
phones
Discussion Points

The possible values of this random variable are

0, 1, 2, and 3.
Discussion Points
A random variable is a function that
associates a real number to each
element in the sample space. It is a
variable whose values are determined
by chance.
Example 1
Tossing Three Coins
Suppose three coins are tossed. Let Y be the
random variable representing the number of
tails that occur. Find the values of the random
variable Y. Complete the table below.
Solution to Example 1

The possible values of the random variable Y are

0, 1, 2, and 3.
Example 2
Drawing Balls from an Urn
Two balls are drawn in succession without
replacement from an urn containing 5 red balls and 6
blue balls. Let Z be the random variable representing
the number of blue balls. Find the values of the
random variable Z. Complete the table below.
Solution to Example 2

The possible values of the random variable Z are

0, 1, and 2.
Discussion Points
A random variable is a discrete random
variable if its set of possible outcomes is
countable. Mostly, discrete random variables
represent count data, such as the number of
defective chairs produced in a factory.

For Example 1, the possible values of random

variable Y are 0, 1, 2, and 3. The possible
values for random variable Z in Example 2, are
0, 1, and 2. Random variables Y and Z are
discrete random variables.
 Discussion Points
A random variable is a continuous
random variable if it takes on values on
a continuous scale. Often, continuous
random variables represent measured
data, such as heights, weights, and
temperatures.
 Discussion Points
Example of Continuous Random Variable

Suppose an experiment is conducted to

determine the distance that a certain type of
car will travel using 10 liters of gasoline over a
prescribed test course. If distance is a random
variable, then we have an infinite number of
distances that cannot be equated to the
number of whole numbers. This is an example
of a continuous random variable.
Exercise 1
Four coins are tossed. Let Z be the random
variable representing the number of heads that
occur. Find the values of the random variable Z.
 Exercise 2
A shipment of five computers contains two
that are slightly defective. If a retailer receives
three of these computers at random, list the
elements of the sample space S using the
letters D and N for defective and non-
defective computers, respectively. To each
sample point assign a value x of the random
variable X representing the number of
computers purchased by the retailer which
are slightly defective.
 Exercise 3
Let T be a random variable giving the number of
heads plus the number of tails in three tosses of a
coin. List the elements of the sample space S for the
three tosses of the coin and assign a value to each
sample point.
Exercise 4
Classify the following random variables as discrete
or continuous.
a) the number of defective computers produced
by a manufacturer
b) the weight of newborns each year in a
hospital
c) the number of siblings in a family of a region
d) the amount of paint utilized in a building
project
e) the number of dropout in a school district for
a period of 10 years
 Summary

A random variable is a function

that associates a real number to
each element in the sample
space. It is a variable whose
values are determined by chance.
 Summary

• A random variable is a discrete random variable if its

set of possible outcomes is countable. Mostly, discrete
random variables represent count data, such as the
number of defective chairs produced in a factory.

• A random variable is a continuous random variable if it

takes on values on a continuous scale. Often,
continuous random variables represent measured
data, such as heights, weights, and temperatures.