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PowerPoint presentation to accompany
Heizer and Render
Operations Management, Eleventh Edition
Principles of Operations Management, Ninth Edition
© 2014
© 2014
Pearson
Pearson
Education,
Education,
Inc.Inc. 4-1
What is Forecasting?
► Process of predicting a
future event
► Underlying basis
of all business
??
decisions
► Production
► Inventory
► Personnel
► Facilities
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4-2
Forecasting Approaches
Quantitative Methods
Trend Cyclical
Seasonal Random
Seasonal peaks
Actual demand
line
Average demand
over 4 years
Random variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Time (years)
Figure 4.1
Moving average
demand in previous n periods
n
average Weights
25 –
Sales demand
20 –
15 – Actual sales
10 – Moving average
5–
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 4.2 Month
Ft = Ft – 1 + (At – 1 - Ft – 1)
Actual = .5
demand
200 –
Demand
175 –
= .1
150 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 20
Impact of Different
225 –
Actual = .5
► Chose
200 – high of
values
demand
when underlying average
Demand
is likely to change
► Choose low values of
175 –
MAD
Actual - Forecast
n
Σ|Deviations|
MAD = 10.31 12.33
n
Forecast errors
2
MSE
n
Forecast errors
2
MAPE
absolute percent error 44.75%
5.59%
n 8
Quarter Unloaded
n
with
a = .10
for
a = .10
with
= .50
for
= .50
1 For 180
= .10 175 5.00 175 5.00
2 168 175.5 7.50 177.50 9.50
3 = 1,526.54/8
159 174.75 = 190.82
15.75 172.75 13.75
4 175 173.18 1.82 165.88 9.12
5 For 190
= .50 173.36 16.64 170.44 19.56
6 205 175.02
= 1,561.91/8 = 29.98
195.24 180.22 24.78
7 180 178.02 1.98 192.61 12.61
8 182 178.22 3.78 186.30 4.30
82.45 98.62
MAD 10.31 12.33
y^ = a + bx
where y^ = computed value of the variable to be predicted
(dependent variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable
ŷ = a + bx
b
xy nx y
x nx
2 2
a = y - bx
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 36
Least Squares Example
ELECTRICAL ELECTRICAL
YEAR POWER DEMAND YEAR POWER DEMAND
1 74 5 105
2 79 6 142
3 80 7 122
4 90
x
x 28
4 y
y 692
98.86
n 7 n 7
()
2 79 4 158
3
a = y - bx = 98.8680
-10.54 4 = 56.70 9 240
4 90 16 360
5 105 ŷ = 56.70 +10.54x25
Thus, 525
6 142 36 852
7 122 49 854
Σx = 28 Σy = 692 Σx2 = 140 Σxy = 3,063
x=
å
Demandx in
= =4 y=
å
28year 8 = 56.70 y+ 10.54(8)
=
692
= 98.86
n 7 = 141.02,
n or 141
7 megawatts
140 –
130 –
120 –
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
| | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year Figure 4.5
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 40
Seasonal Variations In Data
The multiplicative
seasonal model can
adjust trend data for
seasonal variations
in demand
y^ = a + bx
4.0 –
Nodel’s sales
(in$ millions)
3.0 –
2.0 –
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll (in $ billions)
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 50
Associative Forecasting
Example
SALES, y PAYROLL, x x2 xy
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.0 3 9 9.0
2.5 4 16 10.0
2.0 2 4 4.0
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.5 7 49 24.5
Σy = 15.0 Σx = 18 Σx2 = 80 Σxy = 51.5
x
x 18 3 y
y 15 2.5
6 6 6 6
b
xy nxy 51.5 (6)(3)(2.5) .25 a y bx 2.5 (.25)(3) 1.75
x nx
2 2
80 (6)(3 ) 2
x
x 18 3 y
y 15 2.5
6 6 6 6
b
xy nxy 51.5 (6)(3)(2.5) .25 a y bx 2.5 (.25)(3) 1.75
x nx
2 2
80 (6)(3 ) 2
x=
å x 1 18 2
0
= =3
3 å
4 y 5 15 6
y =(in $ billions)
= = 2.5
7
Area payroll
6 6 6 6
b
xy nxy 51.5 (6)(3)(2.5) .25 a y bx 2.5 (.25)(3) 1.75
x nx
2 2
80 (6)(3 ) 2
Sales = $3,250,000
If payroll4.0
next
– year is estimated to be $6 billion,
then: 3.25
Nodel’s sales
(in$ millions)
3.0 –
2.0 –
Sales (in$ millions) = 1.75 + .25(6)
1.0 –
= 1.75 + 1.5 = 3.25
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sales = $3,250,000
Area payroll (in $ billions)
x x
(a) Perfect negative (e) Perfect positive
correlation y y correlation
y
x x
(b) Negative correlation (d) Positive correlation
x
(c) No correlation
–1.0 –0.8 –0.6 –0.4 –0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Correlation coefficient values
(6)(51.5) – (18)(15.0)
r=
é(6)(80) – (18)2 ùé(16)(39.5) – (15.0)2 ù
ë ûë û
309 - 270 39 39
= = = = .901
(156)(12) 1,872 43.3
(Actual demand in period i Forecast demand in period i )
Actual Forecast
n
0 MADs Acceptable
range
–
Lower control limit
Time
MAD
Forecast errors
85
14.2
At the end of quarter 6, n 6
Cumulative error 35
Tracking signal = = = 2.5 MADs
MAD 14.2
© 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 4 - 64