Introduction to Forecasting

COB 291
Spring 2000
Forecasting
 A forecast is an estimate of future demand
 Forecasts contain error
 Forecasts can be created by subjective means
by estimates from informal sources
 OR forecasts can be determined mathematically
by using historical data
 OR forecasts can be based on both subjective
and mathematical techniques.
Qualitative Approaches
 Executive committee consensus
 Delphi method
 Survey of sales force
 Survey of customers
 Historical analogy
 Market research
Quantitative Approaches
 Based on the assumption that the “forces”
that generated the past demand will
generate the future demand (i.e., history
will tend to repeat itself)
 Analysis of the past demand pattern
provides a good basis for forecasting future
demand
Quantitative Approaches
 Simple Linear Regression
– Relationship between one independent variable, x,
and a dependent variable, y
– Assumed to be linear
– Form: Y=a+bX
• Y=dependent variable
• a=y-intercept
• X=independent variable
• b=slope of the regression line
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example
Perfect Lawns, Inc., intends to use sales of
lawn fertilizer to predict lawn mower sales.
The store manager feels that there is
probably a six-week lag between fertilizer
sales and mower sales. The pertinent data
are shown below. =>
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example
Period Fertilizer Sales Number of Mowers Sold
(Tons) (Six-Week Lag)
1 1.7 11
2 1.4 9
3 1.9 11
4 2.1 13
5 2.3 14
6 1.7 10
7 1.6 9
8 2 13
9 1.4 9
10 2.2 16
11 1.5 10
12 1.7 10

A) Use the least squares method to obtain a linear regression line for the data.
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example
Period Fertilizer Sales Number of Mowers Sold (X) (Y) X2 Y2
(Tons) (X) (Six-Week Lag) (Y)
1 1.7 11 18.7 2.89 121
2 1.4 9 12.6 1.96 81
3 1.9 11 20.9 3.61 121
4 2.1 13 27.3 4.41 169
5 2.3 14 32.2 5.29 196
6 1.7 10 17.0 2.89 100
7 1.6 9 14.4 2.56 81
8 2 13 26.0 4.00 169
9 1.4 9 12.6 1.96 81
10 2.2 16 35.2 4.84 256
11 1.5 10 15.0 2.25 100
12 1.7 10 17.0 2.89 100
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example
Period Fertilizer Sales Number of Mowers Sold (X) (Y) X2 Y2
(Tons) (X) (Six-Week Lag) (Y)
1 1.7 11 18.7 2.89 121
2 1.4 9 12.6 1.96 81
3 1.9 11 20.9 3.61 121
4 2.1 13 27.3 4.41 169
5 2.3 14 32.2 5.29 196
6 1.7 10 17.0 2.89 100
7 1.6 9 14.4 2.56 81
8 2 13 26.0 4.00 169
9 1.4 9 12.6 1.96 81
10 2.2 16 35.2 4.84 256
11 1.5 10 15.0 2.25 100
12 1.7 10 17.0 2.89 100

SUM 21.5 135 248.9 39.55 1575

Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example

n ( X )(Y )   X  Y
b
n X  2
 X 2
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example
(12)(248.9)  (215
. )(135)
b
(12)(39.55)  (215
.) 2

84.3
  6.826
12.35
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example
 Y b  X 
a 
n n

135 (6.826)(215
.)
   0.98
12 12
Quantitative Methods - L.S.
Regression Example

Ye  0.98  6.826( X )
Predict lawn mower sales for the first week in August, given fertilier
sales six weeks earlier of two tons.
Ye  0.98  6.826( 2)  12.67 lawn mowers
Time Series Analysis
 A time series is a set of numbers where the
order or sequence of the numbers is
important, e.g., historical demand
 Analysis of the time series identifies
patterns
 Once the patterns are identified, they can be
used to develop a forecast
Time Series Models
 Simple moving average
 Weighted moving average
 Exponential smoothing (exponentially
weighted moving average)
– Exponential smoothing with random fluctuations
– Exponential smoothing with random and trend
– Exponential smoothing with random and seasonal
component
Time Series Models
Simple Moving Average

Sample Data (3-period moving average)

t Dt Ft Dt-Ft | Dt-Ft |
Quarter Actual Demand Forecast Error Error
1 100
2 110
3 110
4 ? (100+110+110)/3=106.67
Time Series Models
Simple Moving Average

Sample Data (3-period moving average)

t Dt Ft Dt-Ft | Dt-Ft |
Quarter Actual Demand Forecast Error Error
1 100
2 110
3 110
4 80 (100+110+110)/3=106.67 80-106.67=-26.67 26.67
Time Series Models
Simple Moving Average

Sample Data (3-period moving average)

t Dt Ft Dt-Ft | Dt-Ft |
Quarter Actual Demand Forecast Error Error
1 100
2 110
3 110
4 80 (100+110+110)/3=106.67 80-106.67=-26.67 26.67

5 ? (110+110+80)/3 = 100.00
Time Series Models
Simple Moving Average

Sample Data (3-period moving average)

t Dt Ft Dt-Ft | Dt-Ft |
Quarter Actual Demand Forecast Error Error
1 100
2 110
3 110
4 80 (100+110+110)/3=106.67 80-106.67=-26.67 26.67

5 100 (110+110+80)/3 = 100.00 0 0

Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

St  Dt  (1   ) St 1
Ft 1  St
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Where
t=time period
St=smoothed average at end of period t
Dt=actual demand in period t
=smoothing constant (0<<1)
Ft=forecast for period t
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha = 0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 ? 100
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 100
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 100 100-100=0
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 .2(100)+.8(100)=100 100 100-100=0
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 .2(100)+.8(100)=100 100 100-100=0
2 ? 100
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 .2(100)+.8(100)=100 100 100-100=0
2 110 100 110-100=10
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 .2(100)+.8(100)=100 100 100-100=0
2 110 .2(110)+.8(100)=102 100 110-100=10
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 .2(100)+.8(100)=100 100 100-100=0
2 110 .2(110)+.8(100)=102 100 110-100=10
3 ? 102
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing (exponentially weighted moving average)

Sample Data (alpha=0.2)

t Dt St Ft Dt-Ft
Quarter Actual Demand Smoothed Average Forecast Error
0 100
1 100 .2(100)+.8(100)=100 100 100-100=0
2 110 .2(110)+.8(100)=102 100 110-100=10
3 110 102 110-102=8

Make forecasts for periods 4-12.

Time Series Models
Forecast Error

2 error measures:
 ( Dt  Ft )

Bias n

tells direction (i.e., over or under forecast)

 D F
Mean Absolute Deviation
t t

tells magnitude of forecast error

Characteristics of Good Forecasts
 Stability
 Responsiveness
 Data Storage Requirements
BESM Example Cont’d
BESM - Expanded
 The Basic Exponential Smoothing Model
(BESM) is nothing more than a cumulative
weighted average of all past demand (and
the initial smoothed average).
 Proof:
Demand Data with Trend
Time Series Models
Exponential smoothing with trend enhancement

St  Dt  (1   )( St 1  Tt 1 )
Tt   ( St  St 1 )  (1   )Tt 1
Ft  n  St  nTt
Demand Data with Trend and
Seasonality
t Dt
0
1 40
2 70
3 60
4 88
5 70
6 120
7 100
8 130
Basic Model Application
base smoothing constant, alpha,
=.20
This spreadsheet updates the ES model for Quarters 1 through 8 and makes
forecasts for Quarters 9 through 12.

alpha= 0.20
beta= 0.00
gamma= 0.00

t Dt St Tt It Ft Dt-Ft ABS
0 40.00 0.00
1 40.00 40.00 0.00 1.00 40.00 0.00 0.00
2 70.00 46.00 0.00 1.00 40.00 30.00 30.00
3 60.00 48.80 0.00 1.00 46.00 14.00 14.00
4 88.00 56.64 0.00 1.00 48.80 39.20 39.20
5 70.00 59.31 0.00 1.00 56.64 13.36 13.36
6 120.00 71.45 0.00 1.00 59.31 60.69 60.69
7 100.00 77.16 0.00 1.00 71.45 28.55 28.55
8 130.00 87.73 0.00 1.00 77.16 52.84 52.84
9 1.00 87.73
10 1.00 87.73
11 1.00 87.73
12 1.00 87.73
29.83 29.83
BIAS MAD
 FORECASTING DEMO

140.00
120.00
100.00 Demand (D)
80.00 Forecast (F)
60.00 Forecast Error (D-F)
40.00 Abs. Forecast Error | D-F |
20.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Period
Trend-Enhanced Application
base smoothing constant, alpha,
= .20 and trend smoothing
constant, beta, = .30
This spreadsheet updates the ES model for Quarters 1 through 8 and makes
forecasts for Quarters 9 through 12.

alpha= 0.20
beta= 0.30
gamma= 0.00

t Dt St Tt It Ft Dt-Ft ABS
0 40.00 10.00
1 40.00 48.00 9.40 1.00 50.00 -10.00 10.00
2 70.00 59.92 10.16 1.00 57.40 12.60 12.60
3 60.00 68.06 9.55 1.00 70.08 -10.08 10.08
4 88.00 79.69 10.17 1.00 77.61 10.39 10.39
5 70.00 85.89 8.98 1.00 89.86 -19.86 19.86
6 120.00 99.90 10.49 1.00 94.87 25.13 25.13
7 100.00 108.31 9.87 1.00 110.39 -10.39 10.39
8 130.00 120.54 10.58 1.00 118.18 11.82 11.82
9 1.00 131.12
10 1.00 141.70
11 1.00 152.27
12 1.00 162.85
1.20 13.78
BIAS MAD
 FORECASTING DEMO

150.00

100.00 Demand (D)

Forecast (F)
50.00
Forecast Error (D-F)
0.00 Abs. Forecast Error | D-F |

-50.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Period
Seasonal Indexes
 seasonal index = actual demand / average
demand
 divide demand by its seasonal index to
deseasonalize and
 multiply demand by its seasonal index to
seasonalize.
t Dt It Dt'
1 8 0.8 10
2 24 1.2 20
3 27 0.9 30
4 44 1.1 40
5 40 0.8 50
6 72 1.2 60
7 63 0.9 70
8 88 1.1 80
Full Model for Exponential
Smoothing
 NOTE: This model will allow you to
forecast with trend only, with trend and
seasonality, with seasonality only, or with
no trend and no seasonality.
Full Model for Exponential
Smoothing (cont’d)

 Dt 
St       1     St 1  Tt 
 1
 It 
T t    St  St    1    Tt
1  1

 Dt 
It  m       1    It
 St 
Ft  n  ( St  nTt ) It  n
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 0.8
2 1.2
3 0.9
4 1.1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 1.2
3 0.9
4 1.1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 1.2
3 0.9
4 1.1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 1.2
3 0.9
4 1.1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 1.2
3 0.9
4 1.1
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 1.2
3 0.9
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 0.9
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 0.9
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 0.9
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 0.9
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 0.9
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 1.1
5 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80
6 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 60 68.99 9.73 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 88 78.97 9.8 1.1 86.58
5 70 88.52 9.73 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80 71.02
6 120 98.78 9.89 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19 116.84
7 100 109.46 10.12 0.89 96.48
8 130 119.18 10 1.11 132.22
9 0.8
10 1.2
11 0.9
12 1.1
 
We would like to forecast for
quarters 9-12 (at end of qtr. 8)
t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 60 68.99 9.73 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 88 78.97 9.8 1.1 86.58
5 70 88.52 9.73 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80 71.02
6 120 98.78 9.89 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19 116.84
7 100 109.46 10.12 0.89 96.48
8 130 119.18 10 1.11 132.22
9 0.8
10 1.2
11 0.9
12 1.1
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 60 68.99 9.73 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 88 78.97 9.8 1.1 86.58
5 70 88.52 9.73 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80 71.02
6 120 98.78 9.89 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19 116.84
7 100 109.46 10.12 0.89 96.48
8 130 119.18 10 1.11 132.22
9 0.8 (119.18+(1)10).8=102.87
10 1.2
11 0.9
12 1.1
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 60 68.99 9.73 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 88 78.97 9.8 1.1 86.58
5 70 88.52 9.73 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80 71.02
6 120 98.78 9.89 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19 116.84
7 100 109.46 10.12 0.89 96.48
8 130 119.18 10 1.11 132.22
9 0.8 (119.18+(1)10).8=102.87
10 1.2 (119.18+(2)10)1.2=166.95
11 0.9
12 1.1
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 60 68.99 9.73 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 88 78.97 9.8 1.1 86.58
5 70 88.52 9.73 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80 71.02
6 120 98.78 9.89 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19 116.84
7 100 109.46 10.12 0.89 96.48
8 130 119.18 10 1.11 132.22
9 0.8 (119.18+(1)10).8=102.87
10 1.2 (119.18+(2)10)1.2=166.95
11 0.9 (119.18+(3)10)0.9=134.00
12 1.1
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 40 10
1 40 .2(40/.8)+.8(40+10)=50 .3(50-40)+.7(10)=10 0.8 (40+10).8=40
2 70 .2(70/1.2)+.8(50+10)=59.67 .3(59.67-50)+.7(10)=9.90 1.2 (50+10)1.2=72
3 60 68.99 9.73 0.9 (59.67+9.90)0.9=62.61
4 88 78.97 9.8 1.1 86.58
5 70 88.52 9.73 .4(40/50)+.6(.8)=.80 71.02
6 120 98.78 9.89 .4(70/59.67)+.6(1.2)=1.19 116.84
7 100 109.46 10.12 0.89 96.48
8 130 119.18 10 1.11 132.22
9 0.8 (119.18+(1)10).8=102.87
10 1.2 (119.18+(2)10)1.2=166.95
11 0.9 (119.18+(3)10)0.9=134.00
12 1.1 (119.18+(4)10)1.1=175.07
 
E.S. Homework, Ex. 3
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 1
2 0.7
3 0.5
4 1.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 0.7
3 0.5
4 1.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 0.7
3 0.5
4 1.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 0.7
3 0.5
4 1.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 0.7
3 0.5
4 1.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 0.7
3 0.5
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 0.5
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 0.5
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 0.5
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 0.5
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 0.5
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6 .6(70/103.62)+.4(0.7)=0.69
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 0.5 (103.62+5.51)x0.5=54.57
4 1.8
5 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01
6 .6(70/103.62)+.4(0.7)=0.69
7
8
9
10
11
12
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 58 111.88 6.34 0.5 (103.62+5.51)x0.5=54.57
4 205 116.49 5.82 1.8 212.8
5 120 120.91 5.4 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01 123.53
6 94 130.28 6.59 .6(70/103.62)+.4(0.7)=0.69 87.15
7 70 137.02 6.64 0.51 69.8
8 250 142.38 6.26 1.78 255.71
9 1
10 0.71
11 0.51
12 1.77
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 58 111.88 6.34 0.5 (103.62+5.51)x0.5=54.57
4 205 116.49 5.82 1.8 212.8
5 120 120.91 5.4 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01 123.53
6 94 130.28 6.59 .6(70/103.62)+.4(0.7)=0.69 87.15
7 70 137.02 6.64 0.51 69.8
8 250 142.38 6.26 1.78 255.71
9 1 (142.38+(1)6.26)1.00=148.64
10 0.71
11 0.51
12 1.77
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 58 111.88 6.34 0.5 (103.62+5.51)x0.5=54.57
4 205 116.49 5.82 1.8 212.8
5 120 120.91 5.4 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01 123.53
6 94 130.28 6.59 .6(70/103.62)+.4(0.7)=0.69 87.15
7 70 137.02 6.64 0.51 69.8
8 250 142.38 6.26 1.78 255.71
9 1 (142.38+(1)6.26)1.00=148.64
10 0.71 (142.38+(2)6.26)0.71=109.98
11 0.51
12 1.77
 
 t Dt St Tt It Ft
0 93 6
1 101 .4(101/1.00)+.6(99)=99.80 .3(99.8-93)+.7(6)=6.24 1 (93+6)x1.00=99.00
2 70 .4(70/0.7)+.6(99.8+6.24)=103.62 .3(103.62-99.8)+.7(6.24)=5.51 0.7 (99.8+6.24)x0.7=74.23
3 58 111.88 6.34 0.5 (103.62+5.51)x0.5=54.57
4 205 116.49 5.82 1.8 212.8
5 120 120.91 5.4 .6(101/99.8)+.4(1.00)=1.01 123.53
6 94 130.28 6.59 .6(70/103.62)+.4(0.7)=0.69 87.15
7 70 137.02 6.64 0.51 69.8
8 250 142.38 6.26 1.78 255.71
9 1 (142.38+(1)6.26)1.00=148.64
10 0.71 (142.38+(2)6.26)0.71=109.98
11 0.51 (142.38+(3)6.26)0.51=82.19
12 1.77
 