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A Study on India’s Merchandise Trade Relations with GCC

Countries

Presented by: Innocent Bwalya


Student of M.Sc. Economics
Lovely Professional University

Year: 2019
Introduction
 Indo-Gulf relations have evolved from trade and
business in the 1970s to economic integration.

 International trade and economic development are


most intimately connected.

 In the modern era, there is mutual interdependence


of economies in the form of Free Trade Agreements
(FTA) .

 Framework signed between India and the GCC on the


25th of Aug 2004.
Strategic relations
 India is the 2nd largest growing economy with a huge
population.

 To sustain this population India needs energy


resources.= GCC.

 And the GCC in turn need a sustainable demander in


the form of India.

 Not only that but the GCC look to India for food
supply.

 7million Indian Diaspora is of significance.


Review Of Literature
 Alam & Ahmed(2017) analyzed Indo-GCC trade relations
empirically using techniques like, TII, TPI and RCA and
concluded that India’s trade was growing continuously but
still had a lot of untapped potential.

 Ayyub & Manral (2017) carried out a Partial Equilibrium


Analysis of India’s agricultural export to GCC Found that
India and GCC have a very strong trade relation and that over
50 percent of India’s energy sources are extracted from GCC.

 RigiLadez & Khan (2014) elaborated the trade and


investment patterns between India and the GCC, giving a
closer look at the Indian workforce in the region.
Objective
 To analyze the growth and composition of the Indo-GCC
bilateral trade.

Study period
 2005-2017
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
 Secondary data
 Data sources: Uncomtrade, Ministry of Commerce and
industry
 MS Excel software
Analysis- Table 1: India- UAE Bilateral Trade
in Billion usd
Year Export Import Balance Of Trade

2005 8421647 5033595 3388052

2006 11451552 7507380 3944172

2007 14447007 11702838 2744169

2008 19096531 19419288 -322757

2009 25415974 19735385 5680589

2010 27412252 30907471 -3495219

2011 37369374 35471579 1897795

2012 35781393 37799114 -2017721

2013 33980431 32964584 1015847

2014 32919602 27287867 5631735

2015 29989559 20283244 9706315

2016 30041757 19240913 10800844

2017 28636263 23115459 5520804

Total 334963342 290468717


Table 2: India- Saudi Arabia Bilateral Trade
Year Export Import Balance Of Trade

2005 1713419 21086845 -19373426

2006 2329926 36596585 -34266659

2007 3246112 32703510 -29457398

2008 5375371 21353105 -15977734

2009 3867829 18460868 -14593039

2010 4483703 14494390 -10010687

2011 5133491 20374084 -15240593

2012 8546653 28423659 -19877006

2013 12357201 32826638 -20469437

2014 13063510 1526572 11536938

2015 6970706 10783078 -3812372

2016 5045149 16570153 -11525004

2017 5217534 22982841 -17765307

Total 77350604 278182328


Table 3: India- Qatar Bilateral Trade
Year Export Import Balance Of Trade

2005 303381 854501 -551120

2006 309728 1962462 -1652734

2007 475320 2062721 -1587401

2008 678276 3406565 -2728289

2009 577066 4146323 -3569257

2010 373984 6141784 -5767800

2011 741066 11258452 -10517386

2012 695467 16385926 -15690459

2013 759182 14606452 -13847270

2014 1269459 16583917 -15314458

2015 968822 9637304 -8668482

2016 769355 7479482 -6710127

2017 1181665 8099718 -6918053

Total 9102771 102625607


Table 4: India- Kuwait Bilateral Trade
Year Export Import Balance Of Trade

2005 504455 416260 88195

2006 604351 4572922 -3968571

2007 613572 6493130 -5879558

2008 820529 10751159 -9930630

2009 750869 7602187 -6851318

2010 1654066 9021917 -7367851

2011 1356927 14690533 -13333606

2012 1043425 17786792 -16743367

2013 1159053 17591599 -16432546

2014 1186681 15036027 -13849346

2015 1214764 5923154 -4708390

2016 1411588 4034768 -2623180

2017 1369923 6118796 -4748873

Total 13690203 120039244 -106349041


Table 5: India-Bahrain Bilateral Trade
Year Export Import Balance Of Trade

2005 204714 164257 40457

2006 145826 409590 -263764

2007 256434 564090 -307656

2008 283153 1657728 -1374575

2009 253548 539820 -286272

2010 609004 663756 -54752

2011 387245 683782 -296537

2012 612051 910947 -298896

2013 688695 593825 94870

2014 476030 444360 31670

2015 549458 355479 193979

2016 475375 322989 152386

2017 492861 360287 132574

Total 5434394 7670910 -2236516


Table 6: India- Oman Bilateral Trade
Year Export Import Balance Of Trade

2005 355945 201490 154455

2006 598170 422892 175278

2007 836374 677263 159111

2008 852204 1462094 -609890

2009 985079 2475694 -1490615

2010 901531 3622555 -2721024

2011 1199230 4497856 -3298626

2012 2376062 1913766 462296

2013 3235683 3057041 178642

2014 2426019 1819509 606510

2015 2051996 1567249 484747

2016 2577624 1300262 1277362

2017 2880849 3075430 -194581

Total 21276766 26093101 -4816335


Findings
 India's trade with the GCC countries keeps growing at
an exponential rate.
 India stands at a trade deficit with all the GCC
countries except for the UAE.
 Commodity compositions taken were non oil
commodities hence most of India's imports were
mineral fuels.
Conclusion and suggestions
 Trade deficit for India.

 Bilateral relations keep growing

 India needs to expand its export basket

 Both sides need to work towards a fully fledged FTA


sooner rather than later