Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Abhishek Bhat
University of Toledo
Sept. 21, 2009
Defined as the weather conditions averaged
over some period of time, the seasonal
distribution, and the extremes in weather for
a place.
Precipitation
Wind
Glaciations
◦ Historical documentation
◦ Tree rings
◦ Changes in ice volume
◦ Changes in sea volume
◦ Fossil pollen analysis
◦ Geologic observation related to glacial movement
Index Severity
-2 Moderate Drought
-3 Sever Drought
-4 Extreme Drought
2 Moderate Rainfall
3 Sever Rainfall
The greenhouse
effect
◦ Continuous warming
◦ O.5 – 0.7 0c warming
Greenhouse gases
◦ Carbon Dioxide
◦ Methane
◦ Nitrous Oxide
◦ CFC
◦ Water Vapor
Contaminants Approximate Residence Time
CO2 15 yr
CH4 10 yr
N 2O 150 yr
CO 65 days
CFC 11 65 yr
CO2 Emissions Global CO2 Emissions
Global Methane
Methane Measures
Emissions
N2O Concentration N2O sources
CFC Source Distribution CFC Source Distribution
CFC-11 Concentration CFC-12 Concentration
General Circulation Models (GCMs) are a class
of computer-driven models for weather
forecasting, understanding climate and
projecting climate change, where they are
commonly called Global Climate Models.
Different Types of Models
◦ Simple General Circulation Model (SGCM)
◦ Atmospheric GCM
◦ Oceanic GCM
◦ Coupled Atmospheric-Oceanic GCM
Model Projections Model Accuracy
CO2 Emission Calculation:
CO2 = (Pi)*(Foi)*Ci
P: Amount of fuel
FO : Fraction oxidized
C : Average carbon content
i: Particular fuel type
Change in radiative forcing:
For CO2
ΔFCO2 = K3 ln [(co2)/(co2)0]
K3 : 6.3 (W/m2)
Surface temperature change:
ΔTs = ΔF * λ
ΔTs: Surface temperature
ΔF: Radiative forcing
λ: Climate sensitivity factor (0.57 in 0C/W/m2)
Global Warming
Model Performance
Projection
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Web site: http://www.eng.utoledo.edu/~akumar/IAP1/mainpage.htm