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LUCUMA EXPORT MARKET - USA

PHASES I, II & III REPORT

04 Diciembre 2006
INTRODUCCIÓN

La siguiente presentación ha sido preparada siguiendo estrictamente los puntos


definidos en los Términos de Referencia para la consultoría:

“Estudio para la selección de un mercado objetivo para la exportación de Lúcuma y


la elaboración de plan de acción para promover las exportaciones del referido
producto al mercado seleccionado”.

El presente documento constituye el informe preliminar de la consultoría, que


incluye, como se estipula en el contrato, sólo los puntos 1-4 descritos en los
Términos de Referencia.

El informe consta de un total de 37 vistas (diapositivas) elaboradas por la empresa


consultora – Tiara International Conuslting, con apoyo de au asociada para temas
agrarios, ACM Perú.

April 20, 2019 2


ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA
EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN
1.1 Evaluar la extensión de tierras cultivadas con Lúcuma .
– Total hectáreas de lúcuma: Si bien las cifras oficiales señalan alrededor de 850 ha,
ese dato no se ajusta a la realidad del cultivo.
– Los especialistas, conjuntamente con los asociados de Prolúcuma, consideran que
existen por encima de 1500 ha plantadas (entre 1700 y 1800).
– Sólo en Huaral hay más de 100 (Prolucuma Huaral).
– Total de hectáreas en producción actualmente 500 – 600 ha hasta 800 quizás y total
de hectáreas en crecimiento 700 a 800 ha.
– Los beneficiarios consideran que es importante el tema de calidad y saber cuál es la
oferta de calidad y no saber cuántas hectáreas hay en general.

1.2 Evaluar la producción de Lúcuma en términos de rendimiento por hectárea.


– En Promedio se ha llegado hasta 15 toneladas y pudiera ser más si es que no
existiera alternancia y se tuvieran ecotipos seleccionados por lugar de producción,
con poca variabilidad genética.
– Existen 120 biotipos de Lúcuma y hay casos que muestran en una misma chacra
hasta 36 variedades; esta gran diversidad genética genera una baja producción.
– Cada viverista ofrece sus selecciones al mercado, pero hay poco respaldo científico
en esas ventas y es poco lo que hace el SENASA para garantizar la pureza y la
sanidad vegetal en los plantones.

1.3 Estimar el crecimiento de las áreas cultivadas en los últimos diez años.
– La data es insuficiente para poder determinar este punto.
April 20, 2019 3
ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA
EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN (CONT.)

1.4 Estimar el crecimiento de la producción de Lúcuma el mismo periodo.


– La producción total por hectárea (el rendimiento/ha) se va a incrementar en el Perú
en los próximos años, dado que las plantaciones mdernas sembradas en los últimos
5-8 años empezarán a alcanzar sus máximos rendimientos, elevando el ratio
promedio de Tm/ha. Sin embargo, es difícil obtener una cifra confiable de esto.

1.5 Estimar el costo de producción de Lúcuma.


– El riego tecnificado es recomendable en algunas áreas de la costa y es el costo más
alto dentro de los componentes de los costos de instalación.
– US$ 2500/ha (riego tecnificado) vs. US$ 850/ha con baja tecnologia (riego por
gravedad).
– Si bien algunas plantaciones en la costa son conducidas por riego por gravedad, dado
que el Peru es una de las zonas más secas de todo el hemisferio, en el mediano plazo,
será imprescindible la instalación de riego tecnificado.
– El costo del manejo en comparación con otros frutales es mucho menor,
especialmente porque la lúcuma se considera un cultivo rústico que requiere
aplicaciones de controladores fitosanitarios en menor frecuencia.
– Costo de mantenimiento fluctúa entre US$ 1000 a US$ 1200 el primer año;
dependiendo del sistema de riego que se haya considerado. Los costos de
mantenimiento del cultivo (s/incluir cosecha) son de unos US$ 850 del segundo año
en adelante.

April 20, 2019 4


ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA
EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN (CONT.)

1.6 Enumerar los beneficios medicinales del uso de Lúcuma como complemento
dietético.
– Este punto no se consideró aplicable. En todo caso, de manera popular se conoce que
la pepa de la lúcuma es buena para controlar la caída del cabello. Fruta con gran
cantidad de proteínas, carbohidratos y azúcares. También contiene vitaminas y
minerales. En todo caso no se considera la lúcuma un cultivo cuya aceptación en el
mercado este estrechamente vinculada a sus propiedades nutraceúticas, por lo que
este tema no se desarolló a profundidad. Más aun, para explotar estas cualidades,
las supuestas propiedades deberán estar respaldadas por estudios clínicos a nivel
internacional

1.7 Estimar el crecimiento del área de cultivo contra el incremento de


rendimiento/ha
– La data es insuficiente para poder determinar este punto.

April 20, 2019 5


Total de Hectarias Rendimiento
cultivadas con Total producción en promedio por
Departmento Lúcuma Tm Hectaria
Amazonas
Ancash 15 82 5467
Apurimac 8 29 3739
arequipa 10 46 4600
Ayacucho 43 355 8256
Cajamarca 44 245 5568
Cusco 3 24 8000
Huancavelica 14 62 4429
Huanuco 5 72 14400
Ica 15 98 6533
Junin 8 33 4125
La Libertad 36 298 8278
Lambayeque 13 113 8692
Lima 268 2883 10757
Loreto 7 40 5714
Madre de Dios
Moquegua 3 18 6000
Pasco
Piura 53 202 3811
Puno
San Martin
Tacna
Tumbes
Ucayali
Total 545 4600
Promedio Nacional 8444
April 20, 2019 6
Departmento Precio promedio x Kg
Amazonas
Ancash 0.79
Apurimac 1.27
arequipa 0.76
Ayacucho 1.54
Cajamarca 0.76
Cusco 0.85
Huancavelica 1.16
Huanuco 1.22
Ica 1.52
Junin 0.98
La Libertad 1.26
Lambayeque 0.79
Lima 1.18
Loreto 0.4
Madre de Dios
Moquegua 2.5
Pasco
Piura 0.63
Puno
San Martin
Tacna
Tumbes
Ucayali
Promedio Nacional 1.15

April 20, 2019 7


Área Con Aptitud
Fruticola Area Cultivada Porcentaje
Tumbes 80000 2745 3.4
Piura 255000 30325 11.9
Lambayeque 270000 6672 2.5
La Libertad 240000 8337 3.5
Cajamarca 155000 11144 7.2
Amazonas 235000 9442 4
San Martin 355000 25389 7.2
Ancash 180000 3275 1.8
Lima y Callao 215000 28151 3.1
Ica 165000 10062 6.1
Huanuco 345000 18717 5.4
Pasco 85000 7908 9.3
Junin 372000 36500 9.8
Huancavelica 73000 3224 4.4
Ayacucho 143000 5509 3.9
Apurimac 43000 1862 4.3
Cusco 500000 8877 1.8
Puno 291000 4370 1.5
Madre de Dios 865000 1709 0.2
Arequipa 385000 4090 1.1
Moquegua 40000 1111 2.8
Tacna 120000 4116 3.4
Loreto 1147000 41777 3.6
Ucayali 1050000 43542 4.1
Nacional 7609000 318854 4.2
April 20, 2019 8
VENTAJAS Y DESVENTAJAS DE LA LÚCUMA

 Ventajas:

– De acuerdo a los actuales clientes, el sabor y el aroma son los prinicplaes atractivos. También el
color.
– Las tendencias mundiales hacia lo étnico y el probar productos nuevos son una ventaja para la
lúcuma.
– La parte industrial no aumenta no tiene un alto impacto en el costo de producción de derivados. Es
decir, daría igual procesar una lúcuma o un mango; por lo que se considera que los costos de
procesamientos no incrementan el precio comparándolo con otras frutas.
– El árbol es rústico, tiene pocas plagas y enfermedades
– Frutal semi caducifolio, adaptado desde el nivel del mar hasta los 2800 msnm.
– El cultivo de la lúcuma se adapta a diferentes clases de suelo, teniendo tolerancia media a la
salinidad. El ph óptimo de este es 7 (neutro).
– Este cultivo por sus características es posible de llevarlo de forma casi orgánica, con un mínimo
indispensable de agroquímicos.

April 20, 2019 9


VENTAJAS Y DESVENTAJAS DE LA LÚCUMA (CONT.)

 Desventajas:

– Producto caro: tiene baja productividad y altos costos de instalación porque se


demora 4 a 5 años en entrar en producción (costo acumulado de instalación y
mantenimiento). El costo final de producción por kilo repercute en su potencial precio
de venta.
– Heterogeneidad de producto: Eso también se debe a que los pequeños productores
tienen pocas hectáreas con una alta diversidad genética, enfrenteda además a una
diversidad de limas y a tecnologías de manejo, que finalmente producen calidades
distintas.
– No está estandarizada la planta ni el producto cosechado. Los parámetros de
distinción entre primera, segunda y tercerca, varían.
– El precio de la pulpa ofrecido en los mercados internacionales, es demasiado caro y el
cliente pierde interés.
– Falta de estrategias de promoción y difusión de la información por parte de Prolúcuma.
– Falta de cantidad de hectáreas y estacionalidad hace difícil poder programar los
volúmenes de exportación.
– En verano la Lúcuma es muy rica amarilla pero en invierno cambia, puede ofrecer 4
colores: blanquisca, blanca dulce, blanca desabrida y marronesca – los expertos
recomiendan que hay que agostar la planta y no dejar que la fruta salga en invierno.

April 20, 2019 10


Productividad de la Lúcuma en Condiciones Óptimas

25

20

15
TM

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Año

April 20, 2019 11


LA LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS

2.1 y 2.2 Identificar las características, nombres y ventajas de los derivados de la


Lúcuma.

– Pulpa: producto libre de cutículas, cáscara y pepa. Se ha logrado hasta un 65% de


rendimiento; dependiendo de la temporada. Conversion 2 a 1 de fruta a pulpa.
– Congelado:
 trozos IQF
 trozos congelado en bloques
 pasta - de producción
– manual
– mecánica.
– Harina: Conversion de fruta fresca a harina es 5 a 1. Contiene humedad de 10%
máximo. Adecuadamente almacenado (cerrado herméticamente, en ambiente fresco,
seco y oscuro) puede durar hasta doce meses.
– Liofilizado: tiene un sabor más intenso que la harina y conserva el aroma.
Conversion de fruta fresca a liofilizado es 5 a 1 igual que para la harina. Es un
producto con un mercado más específico; dado que es un poco complicado de utilizar.
La mayoría de sistemas agroindustriales para producir derivados lácteos (yogures y/o
helados) utilizan pulpas de frutas congeladas. Su humedad final es de 4% máximo.
– Pulpa congelada: congelada por el sistema de túnel por aire forzado, logrando una
temperatura estable de -18 °C. en el centro térmico del producto.

April 20, 2019 12


LA LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (CONT.)

2.3 Hacer una evaluación de la producción de cada derivado.


– En parte ha sido respondido en el punto 2.1 – 2.2. Más aún, los volúmenes producidos y exportados
son aún muy pequeños y dispersos, para poder capitalizar sobre este tipo de evaluación. Ver
siguiente cuadro

2.4 Hacer una evaluación de las propiedades químicas de cada derivado individual.
– No se tiene suficiente información para hacer este tipo de comparación, sin embargo en el siguiente
punto se describen algunas propiedades generales de cada derivado.

2.5 Valor agregado en cada derivado.


– El valor agregado es un procesamiento simple dado que ya sea harina, liofilizado o pulpa se utilizan
como insumos para producir helados, yogurts; etc.
– Por un lado el mercado prefiere harina dado que en el caso de los helados es más fácil adicionar
colorante y sabor estandarizado. Además no necesita de una logística tan complicada.
– El liofilizado tiene un sabor más intenso; al compararlo con la harina ésta pierde color, sabor y olor y
tiene que se mezclado para poder obtener el producto deseado; sin embargo con liofilizado son
pocas las propiedades fisicas que se pierden.
– El producto de mayor potencial parece ser el de pulpa congelada porque las empresas de derivados
lácteos está más acostumbrada a incorporar ese tipo de materia prima en su proceso.

2.6 Equipamiento e infraestructura necesarios para la produccion de los distintos derivados.


– Se definió la maquinaria y equipo necesario para cada uno de los derivados exportados. La
consultora está introduciendo esta información para generar los flujos de caja respectivos.

April 20, 2019 13


Cuadro N° 5: Evolución de las exportaciones de Lúcuma por Presentación (en US$ FOB) - Año 2000 a Junio 2006

DESCRIPCIÓN 2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 Total


CHOCOLATE 44,148 4,965 0 0 0 2 513 49,628
CONGELADA 2,156 5,080 5 488 13,497 4 0 21,230
FLAN 0 0 0 1,000 3,874 4,564 1,868 11,306
FRESCA 994 387 3,613 43,702 11,951 1,054 6,477 68,178
GALLETA 21,226 78,229 122,985 25,580 8,828 21,586 5,493 283,927
HARINA 8,178 5,902 7,906 18,295 3,285 18,883 4,153 66,601
HELADO 624 2 6 104 3,402 7,397 1,898 13,432
MERMELADA 0 48 2,501 0 2,357 22 727 5,654
OTROS 214 1,289 1,297 3,114 3,042 3,354 1,044 13,354
PASTA 7 7,851 252 8,355 1,094 1,847 34 19,440
POLVO 0 50 476 1,538 901 9,869 856 13,690
PULPA 157 24,208 13,364 12,328 117,749 51,122 21,072 240,001
PURE 0 8 21 540 9 7 1 585
Total general 77,704 128,019 152,426 115,044 169,988 119,710 44,133 807,025
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaborado por: PROLUCUMA

Cuadro N° 6: Evolución de las exportaciones de Lúcuma por Presentación (En Kg.) - Año 2000 a Marzo 2006

DESCRIPCIÓN 2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 Total


CHOCOLATE 11,933 2,342 0 0 0 0 271 14,547
CONGELADA 1,028 2,125 3 325 3,640 12 0 7,134
FLAN 0 0 0 777 1,561 2,245 709 5,292
FRESCA 672 217 1,898 17,010 4,151 506 2,522 26,977
GALLETA 13,026 55,117 97,432 20,214 7,480 14,609 3,041 210,920
HARINA 793 1,393 1,980 4,967 589 3,068 627 13,416
HELADO 113 12 1 28 1,310 3,318 1,163 5,945
MERMELADA 0 20 663 0 397 18 125 1,223
OTROS 148 283 1,034 1,338 1,265 1,724 874 6,666
PASTA 7 2,201 110 3,168 207 561 11 6,264
POLVO 0 10 72 196 117 784 94 1,273
PULPA 54 16,700 7,060 6,351 55,566 12,833 7,631 106,195
PURE 0 12 8 180 9 6 5 220
Total general 27,773 80,433 110,262 54,555 76,292 39,685 17,072 406,072
Fuente: SUNAT
Elaborado por: PROLUCUMA

April 20, 2019 14


LA LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (CONT.)

2.7 Capital de inversion y costos requeridos para la produccion de cada derivado

– Precio de Lúcuma puesta en planta es mínimo de S/. 1.50/kg. Hay empresas que
pagan en cualquier época S/. 2.00/kg. sólo por fruta de 4 a 6.5 cm. En algunas
oportunidades a los productores se les paga sólo S/. 1.45/kg. dependiendo del tamaño
de la fruta. Otras empresas llegan a pagar hasta S/. 2.7 -2.8; sin embargo en
temporada baja han llegado ha pagar hasta S/. 3.3.
– Para procesar pulpa se descarta el 50% y sólo el otro 50% es producto terminado; es
decir el rendimiento es de 2 a 1 en pulpa.
– Para pulpa, la inversion es mínima, la mano de obra no es cara para 200 cajas en un
dia (5 kgs, 1 ton. de prod. terminado) se necesitan 30 personas, todo es manual.
– Mano de obra, pulpear, congelar US$ 1.70 (Costo valor agregado S/. 4)
– En resumen, los costos de producción es aproximadamente S/.6/kg.

April 20, 2019 15


Gráfico N° 1: Evolución de las exportaciones de Lúcuma (US$
FOB)
Año 2,000 a Junio 2,006

180,000

160,000
140,000

120,000
US $

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000
20,000
0
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006

Fuente: SUNAT
Elaboración: Prolúcuma

April 20, 2019 16


Gráfico N° 2: Principales presentaciones exportadas de la Lúcuma -
Año 2000 a junio 2006

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006

CHOCOLATE CONGELADA FLAN FRESCA GALLETA HARINA HELADO


MERMELADA OTROS PASTA POLVO PULPA PURE

Fuente: SUNAT
Elaboración: Prolúcuma

April 20, 2019 17


LISTADO DE DERIVADOS DE LÚCUMA
Y SUS PRECIOS DE EXPORTACIÓN UNITARIOS

DERIVADOS 2001 2005


US$/KG US$/KG

Pulpa 1.39 2.26


Harina 4.11 6.09
Embarque Mixto 0 4.49
Pasta 3.22 2.97
Congelada 2.29 0
Dulce 4.06 2.47
Al Natural 1.62 1.65
Otras Presentaciones 6.25 5.78
Presentación No Especificada 2.40 0

April 20, 2019 18


IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS
POTENCIALES
3.1 Se realizará un taller (taller I) participativo con los principales agentes
vinculados al sector, que son parte de la cadena de valor de los productos
derivados de la Lúcuma con el propósito de tomar en cuenta la problemática y
la agenda actual para la selección de mercados.
– El taller se realizó por la mañana del día Martes 8 de Agosto de 2006. Particparon
agroindustriales, exportadpres, productores, asociados de Prolúcuma y técnicos
especialistas en el tema de lúcuma.

3.2 Se hará un análisis de la información, documentación y bibliografía


(publicaciones) disponible para determinar:
– La información científica y técnica de producción de lúcuma y sus derivados es
sumamente restringida, por no decir nula. Por ende, la mayoría de interpretaciones se
hicieron considerando las experiencias de los asistentes a los talleres.

3.2.1 Las formas y presentaciones más convenientes para la exportación de


Lúcuma procesada.
 Pulpa de Lúcuma Congelada
 Harina de Lúcuma
 Liofilizado de Lúcuma

April 20, 2019 19


IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS
POTENCIALES (CONT.)

3.3 Se levantará información estadística confiable y desagregada. Esto incluirá precio FOB y
CIF, volumen y destinos.
– Precio de venta al público es de US$ 2.20 ó US$ 2.30/libra de pulpa. Es decir el precio
por un kilogramo es de unos US$ 5.
– Hay productores que compran lúcuma de Noviembre a Febrero y lo vende en
Setiembre u Octubre; entonces se tiene un costo de almacenamiento en frío
adicional, de US$ 30 mensuales. El producto congelado dura hasta 1.5 años en
almacen.
– Los costos involucrados son: costo de bajar el contenedor; almacenaje; comisiones de
venta y de crédito; costo de bolsas y cajas; costo de transporte; exportación, costo de
FDA (riesgo no tarifario de hasta US$ 800); costo de “intensive search” en USA (más
de US$ 1,000 para ver si el contenedor contiene droga). En caso que el contenedor
queda en “hold” hay que pagarle los gastos a la naviera porque el producto no se
puede bajar del barco. A veces la autorizacion del FDA se puede demorar más de un
mes. En cargas secas se tiene más problemas que en cargas congeladas. En
congelado se puede quedar la carga inmobilizada de 15 a 20 días.
– No hay seguro contra las inspecciones - el importador asume todos los costos.
– En un contenedor se pueden transportar de 4 a 5 TM de pulpa. Por lo general los
importadores compran producto un mes antes que se le acabe el contenedor anterior,
por lo que generalmente se tiene una rotación de 3 a 4 meses.
– Aproximadamente US$ 50,000 es el costo de un contenedor lleno de producto. El
flete no tiene un impacto fuerte; en cambio el precio final si tiene gran impacto en
poder acceder al mercado o no.
– Todos estos datos se incluirán en los flujos a desarrollar en el modelo financiero final.

April 20, 2019 20


EXPORTACIONES DE DERIVADOS DE LÚCUMA -
2001

Pulp-52.47
Harina-13.35
EmbMix-0
Pasta-17.51
Congld-11.33
Dulce-2.45
Al Natl-0.86
Oth Presn-1.56
Prsn NoSp-0.46

April 20, 2019 21


EXPORTACIONES DE DERIVADOS DE LÚCUMA -
2005

Pulp-45.90
Harina-19.13
Emb Mix-16.09
Pasta-2.83
Congld-0
Dulce-9.11
Al Natl-1.65
Oth Prsn-5.78
Prsn NSp-0

April 20, 2019 22


EXPORTACIONES DE LÚCUMA A VARIOS PAÍSES
EN UN AÑO TÍPICO

USA - 28
JAPÓN - 17
ESPAÑA 9
OT-AMCA
OT-UE-5
OT-UE-0.5
OTROS

April 20, 2019 23


ÍNDICE DE CRECIMIENTO DE LAS EXPORTACIONES
DE LOS DERIVADOS DE LA LÚCUMA

Tasa de Crecimiento Compuesto Anual


(TCCA) 2001-04 2001-05

TCCA de Ingresos por Exportaciones 53.19% 9.86%


TCCA de Exportaciones en Ton 46.08% (6.14%)

April 20, 2019 24


PRECIOS PROMEDIO DE EXPORTACION
DE LA LÚCUMA - $/KG

4
3.5
3
2.5
2
$/KG
1.5
1
0.5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

April 20, 2019 25


REVISIÓN DEL MERCADO ACTUAL Y PROYECTADO

EXPORTACIONES PERUANAS DE JUGOS / CONCENTRADOS (Tm)


(Proyección al 2008)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Varias 3,244 3,321 3,892 4,359 4,882 5,467 6,124 6,859


pulpas *

Pulpa de 3 1 16 64 320 480 800 960


Lucuma

Total 3,247 3,322 3,908 4,423 5,202 5,947 6,924 7,819

Source: ComexPeru

April 20, 2019 26


EXPORTACIONES PERUANAS DE JUGOS / CONCENTRADOS (En
miles de dólares)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Varias 6,488 6,642 7,784 8,718 9,764 10,935 12,247 13,717


Pulpas

Pulpa de 9 3 40 160 800 1,200 2,000 2,400


Lúcuma

TOTAL 6,497 6,645 7,824 8,878 10,564 12,135 14,247 16,117

* Precios: US$ 2.5 lúcuma (del 2005) y US$ 2 promedio para otras pulpas
** 80% de la producción es proyectada para fines de exportación.

April 20, 2019 27


PRODUCCIÓN ESTIMADA DE PULPA DE LUCUMA (TM)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

6 15 20 80 400 600 1,000 1,200

PARTICIPACIÓN ESTIMADA DE PROLUCUMA EN LAS EXPORTACIONES


PERUANAS DE JUGOS / CONCENTRADOS

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


Participación 0.12% 0.04% 0.41% 1.45% 6.15% 18.07% 11.55% 12.28%
de Prolucuma
En las
exportaciones
de jugos /
concentrados

*El porcentaje de participación de Prolucuma en las exportaciones de jugos/


concentrados es obtenida de la división de las exportaciones proyectadas de pulpa de
lúcuma entre las exportaciones de Jugos/ Concentrados de todas las demás frutas.

April 20, 2019 28


IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS
POTENCIALES (CONT.)

3.3.1 Selección de una terna de los potenciales países/mercados donde el


producto pueda ingresar exitosamente.
 El principal destino es EEUU; sin embargo han habido unas exportaciones a
Chile y Japón, el resto de la produccion se vende en el mercado local.
 Se investigarán los usos más importantes del producto en USA y también las
exportaciones chilenas (mercados y usos).
 A partir de las experiencias de exportaciones actuales, la consultora preparó
expresamente una matriz para evaluar los mercados potenciales de manera
participativa.

3.4 Se realizará una presentación y se elaborarán documentos informativos sobre


los mercados seleccionados y los criterios utilizados para la selección de la
terna de mercados.
– Se hizo una presentación en el taller I y se discutieron los temas referidos en el
programa que se adjunta.

April 20, 2019 29


PROGRAMA DEL TALLER I

I.- Coordinación y Presentación de los Puntos a Discutir: 9:10 am


II.- Discusión sobre el punto 1: 9:45 am

1. ANÁLISIS DE LOS CULTIVOS DE LÚCUMA EXISTENTES Y SU PRODUCCIÓN:


1.1 Evaluar la extensión de tierras cultivadas y rendimientos de Lúcuma.
1.2 Estimar el crecimiento de las áreas cultivadas y producción de Lúcuma en los últimos
diez años
1.3 Estimar el costo de producción de Lúcuma.
1.4 Estimar el crecimiento del área de cultivo contra el incremento de rendimiento por
hectárea.

III.- Coffee Break: 11:15 am


IV.- Discusión sobre el punto 2: 11:45 am

2. LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS


2.1 Identificar las características y ventajas de los derivados de la Lúcuma.
2.2 Hacer una evaluación de la producción y propiedades químicas de cada derivado
individual.
2.3 Valor agregado en cada derivado.
2.4 Equipamiento e infraestructura necesarios para la producción de los distintos derivados.
2.5 Capital de inversión y costos requeridos para la producción de cada derivado.

V.- Conclusiones: 1:00 pm


April 20, 2019 30
SELECCIÓN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO

4.1 Resultados del taller previo.

– Como resultados iniciales se expuso la información obtenida en una reunión


de trabajo que se estableció el 13 de Julio, en las instalaciones del AGAP y
Prolúcuma con los directivos de dicha institución, así como con la presencia
de representantes de Prompex y de la empresa Liofilizadora del Pacífico.
– En dicha reunión se le encargó a la consultora que estudiara las
posibilidades de mercado con los fabricantes de helados, yogurt, cereales y
milk-shake en los países seleccionados.
– En el taller II se hizo una presentación y se discutieron los temas referidos
en el programa que se adjunta.
– En el taller II se contó con la presencia de productores, asociados a
Prolúcuma, exportadores, industriales y técnicos especialistas en el tema
de producción de lúcuma.

April 20, 2019 31


ASISTENTES A LOS TALLERES I Y II

No. Empresa Representante Asistencia


1 Frigorifico esmeralda Hugo Valdez Osorio Asistió
2 NISA Gastón Urbina No asistió
3 NISA Javier Delgado No asistió
4 MINAG Jorge Amaya No asistió
5 INIA Willy Daga Asistió
6 AGAP Sandro Farfan No asistió
7 Belmont Foods Juan Daniel Payet Asistió
8 Liofilizadora del Pacifico Lorena Olavarria Asistió
9 Prolucuma Huaral - Presi Ing. Luis Enrique Olivares Alegria Asistió
10 Prolucuma Huaral - VicePresi Abraham Salinas Asistió
11 Prolucuma Huaral - Secretario Guillermo Suarez Toledo Asistió
12 Prompex Juan Carlos Mandujano No asistió
13 Representante del Senor Jaime Zignago Valentin Garcia No asistió
14 Inmobiliaria Gallos SA Gonzalo Roselló No asistió
15 El Lúcumo Telésforo Sojo Sullón Asistió
16 El Lúcumo Maria Barreto Grundel No asistió
17 El Lúcumo Stefan Bederski Fischer No asistió
18 ACM Tony Salas Asistió
19 ACM Gisela Camminati Asistió
20 ACM Cesar Paredes Asistió
21 ACM Rosario Alva Asistió
22 Tiara Trevor Norris Asistió

April 20, 2019 32


SELECCIÓN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO (CONT.)

4.2 Elaboración de material de trabajo e informativo para los participantes de este


taller decisivo.
– Ver Programa del Taller II

4.3 Coordinaciones logísticas para la realización del taller


– Taller II realizado de 2-6 pm en el Hotel Basquiat Inn ubicado en Av. Dos de
Mayo 1421 (alt. Cdra. 14 Javier Prado Oeste)

4.4 Identificación y convocatoria a los principales agentes del sector.


– Ver lista de Participantes y Asistentes

4.5 Presentación de una terna de los potenciales países/mercados a exportar y el


análisis que condujo a su selección.
– Ver Matriz Resultado del Taller II

4.6 Selección del mercado objetivo al cual se orientará el plan de acción.


– Ver Matriz Resultado del Taller II

April 20, 2019 33


PROGRAMA DEL TALLER II

I.- Coordinación y Presentación de los Puntos a Discutir: 2:05 pm


II.- Discusión sobre el punto 3: 2:15 pm

3. IDENTIFICACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MERCADOS POTENCIALES


3.1 Se hará un análisis de la información, documentación y bibliografía (publicaciones)
relevante disponible para determinar las formas y presentaciones más convenientes
(pulpa, harina, etc.) para la exportación de Lúcuma procesada.
3.2 Se levantará información estadística confiable y desagregada. Esto incluirá precio FOB
y CIF, volumen y destinos.
3.3 Selección de una terna de los potenciales países/mercados donde el producto pueda
ingresar exitosamente – definición de criterios críticos.

III.- Coffee Break: 2:45 pm


IV.- Discusión sobre el punto 4: 3:00 pm

4. SELECCIÓN DE UN MERCADO OBJETIVO


Seleccionar entre la terna de candidatos definida cual será el (los) mercado(s) objetivo para
la elaboración del plan de acción de exportación de Lúcuma, utilizando una cartilla-matriz
elaborada por TIARA y ACM.

V.- Conclusiones y Clausura: 5:30 pm

April 20, 2019 34


ELEMENTOS DE IDENTIFICACIÓN Y
CRITERIO DE ANÁLISIS PARA EL MERCADO POTENCIAL

 Desarrollo de una matriz con un sistema de puntaje que tome en


consideración los siguientes parámetros:
 Opinión y percepción del cliente sobre el producto.
 Segmentación del mercado basado en:
 Nivel de Ingresos
 Diversidad Étnica
 Ubicación Geográfica
 Actual demanda del mercado para los derivados de lúcuma o
productos similares como frutas tropicales y pulpas.
 Sistema existente para la tasación de productos similares a la lúcuma.
 Elasticidad de la demanda para lúcuma, sus derivados y productos
similares.

 Definición de la distinta ponderación de cada una de las variables/factores


presentados para la selección del mercado ideal para desarrollar el plan de
acción.

April 20, 2019 35


CRITERIOS PARA LA SELECCIÓN DEL MERCADO - LÚCUMA

ORDENE LOS PAISES SEGÚN LOS SIGUIENTES CRITERIOS


USA JAPÓN UK FRANCIA ALEMANIA ESPAÑA COREA
POBLACIÓN (MILLONES DE HABITANTES) 294.49 127.78 60.57 60.64 82.71 40.4814 49.08
TAMAÑO DE LA ECONOMÍA - PBI (US$ BILLONES) 11,483 3,603 1,727 1,683 2,293 921 675
PBI PER CAPITA (US$) 38,994 28,196 28,513 27,759 27,720 22,758 13,746

SEGMENTACIÓN DEL NIVEL DE INGRESOS


POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS MAYORES A US$ 200K 2.25% 1.50% 1.00% 0.75% 1.25% 0.15% 0.10%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 150k & US$ 200K 2.50% 1.85% 1.15% 0.90% 1.40% 0.55% 0.25%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 100K & US$ 150K 8.50% 4.95% 3.50% 3.25% 3.75% 1.37% 0.75%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 50K & US$ 100K 14.25% 9.68% 11.15% 8.95% 9.15% 5.95% 2.11%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS ENTRE US$ 25K & US$ 50K 16.43% 15.12% 17.70% 21.66% 16.25% 23.52% 3.34%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS MENORES A US$ 25K 21.15% 22.72% 41.00% 46.30% 41.00% 52.00% 74.68%
POBLACIÓN CON INGRESOS MAYORES A US$ 50K 62.42% 62.16% 41.30% 32.04% 42.75% 24.48% 25.32%
DEMANDA DE MERCADO PARA HELADO (US$ MM) 5,292 2,296 1,088 1,090 1,486 727 882
DEMANDA DE MERCADO PARA YOGURT (US$ MM) 7,056 3,061 1,451 1,453 1,982 970 1,176

TAMAÑO DE MERCADO PARA OTROS PRODUCTOS (US$ MM) 1,235 536 254 254 347 170 206
TAMAÑO DE MERCADO PARA SABORES DE HELADO Y YOGURT 1,358 589 279 280 381 187 226
(10% DEL MERCADO DE HELADO/YOGURT)
PERCEPCIÓN DEL SABOR DE LA LÚCUMA 30% 45% 25% 35% 37% 60% 75%
ACTITUD FAVORABLE DEL CONSUMIDOR 35% 55% 35% 45% 47% 70% 85%

EVALÚE EL SISTEMA DE PRICING EXISTENTE


NIVELES DE PRECIO Y MÁRGENES 7.50 8.50 7.25 7.10 7.60 6.00 7.25
COSTO DE PROMOCIÓN PARA LLEGAR AL CONSUMIDOR 5.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 8.00
FACILIDAD DE ACCESO A RED DE DISTRIB. DE LOS FABRICANTES DE HELADO Y YOGURT 7.00 5.00 6.25 5.00 6.00 6.00 6.50
FLETE 9.00 5.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 5.00 5.00
ARANCELES 10.00 8.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 8.00
BARRERAS NO ARANCELARIAS (FDA, POLÍTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, CERTIFC. ETC.) 8.50 8.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 9.00

VENTAS ACTUALES DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (US$ MM) 0.04 0.02 - - - - -


DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS (US$ MM) 13.58 15.31 7.26 7.26 9.91 4.85 5.88
VALOR DEL 2% DE PARTICIPACIÓN DE MERCADO (US$) 27.17 30.61 14.51 14.53 19.82 9.70 11.76

VARIABLES NORMALIZADAS PONDER. (0 - 25)

PBI PER CAPITA 1.00 0.72 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.58 0.35
NIVEL DE INGRESOS SOBRE US$ 50K 1.00 1.00 0.66 0.51 0.68 0.39 0.41
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA HELADO 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA YOGURT 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA OTROS PRODUCTOS 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA SABORES 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
ACTITUD FAVORABLE DEL CONSUMIDOR 0.41 0.65 0.41 0.53 0.55 0.82 1.00
PRICING EN EL MERCADO 0.88 1.00 0.85 0.84 0.89 0.71 0.85
COSTO DE PROMOCIÓN 0.63 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.50 0.63 1.00
ACCESO A LA DISTRIBUCIÓN 1.00 0.71 0.89 0.71 0.86 0.86 0.93
FLETE 1.00 0.56 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.56 0.56
ARANCELES 1.00 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.80
BARRERAS NO TARIFARIAS (FDA, POLÍTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, ETC.) 0.94 0.94 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 1.00
DEMANDA ACTUAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS 1.00 0.54 - - - - -
DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS 0.89 1.00 0.47 0.47 0.65 0.32 0.38
VALOR DEL 2% DE PARTICIPACIÓN DE MERCADO 0.89 1.00 0.47 0.47 0.65 0.32 0.38

PUNTAJE DE LOS PAISES RESPECTIVOS 272.86 184.44 120.19 114.55 129.33 119.70 145.45

April 20, 2019 36


MATRIZ DE RESULTADOS – TALLER II

Variables a Ponderar - cuáles son las más importantes, las que determinarán si
debo escoger a un país específico para para definir mi estrategia de penetración de
mercado...

Países Seleccionados

PAISES USA JAPÓN UK FRANCIA ALEMANIA ESPAÑA COREA


PONDER. (0 -
VARIABLES NORMALIZADAS 25)

PBI PER CAPITA 18.5 1.00 0.72 0.73 0.71 0.71 0.58 0.35
NIVEL DE INGRESOS SOBRE US$ 50K 17.9 1.00 1.00 0.66 0.51 0.68 0.39 0.41
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA HELADO 17.4 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
TAMAÑO DEL MERCADO PARA YOGURT 3.8 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA OTROS PRODUCTOS 16.6 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
SEGMENTO DE MERCADO PARA SABORES 20.3 1.00 0.43 0.21 0.21 0.28 0.14 0.17
ACTITUD FAVORABLE DEL CONSUMIDOR 10.5 0.41 0.65 0.41 0.53 0.55 0.82 1.00
PRICING EN EL MERCADO 12.5 0.88 1.00 0.85 0.84 0.89 0.71 0.85
COSTO DE PROMOCIÓN 20.9 0.63 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.50 0.63 1.00
ACCESO A LA DISTRIBUCIÓN 22.0 1.00 0.71 0.89 0.71 0.86 0.86 0.93
FLETE 8.5 1.00 0.56 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.56 0.56
ARANCELES 10.4 1.00 0.80 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.80
BARRERAS NO TARIFARIAS (FDA, POLÍTICAS, NOVEL FOODS, ETC.) 22.5 0.94 0.94 0.61 0.61 0.61 0.61 1.00
DEMANDA ACTUAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS 17.9 1.00 0.54 - - - - -
DEMANDA POTENCIAL DE LÚCUMA Y SUS DERIVADOS 22.1 0.89 1.00 0.47 0.47 0.65 0.32 0.38
(VALOR DEL 2% DE PARTICIPACIÓN DE MERCADO)

PUNTAJE DE LOS PAISES RESPECTIVOS 235.47 166.02 114.49 105.96 120.11 108.23 129.82
April 20, 2019 37
CONCLUSIONES

 El Proyecto deberá incluir los siguientes temas de análisis:


 Se deberá promover la homogenizacion en los conceptos de calidad de producto, a partir
de normativas de estandarizacion de producto – que significa “calidad” – y de la
información de documentos técnicos del cultivo.
 Necesidad de un interlocutor (Prolúcuma) que pueda implementar las estrategias que el
proyecto finalmente defina. Prolúcuma no muestra aún las capacidades para poder cumplir
con ese papel – hay necesidad de fortalecer sus capacidades institucionales.
 La lúcuma es un producto “caro” comparado con los precios de otros frutales, dado que
tiene baja produccion por hectarea – el proyecto deberá plantear a qué precio se puede
ofrecer el producto si se incrementa sus rendimientos. El precio en el mercado
internacional de pulpas congeladas sí se considera un “deal braker”.
 Se definieron seis factores claves para la toma de decision del mercado los cuales señalan a
USA y Japón como principales paises para comercializar los derivados de lúcuma y éstos
serán tomados en cuenta para el plan de acceso.
 Para que el proyecto sea efectivo, se deberá plantear políticas públicas vinculadas a la
promocion de la inversion privada.
 Se acordó que los participantes completaran los datos económicos para elaborar los flujos
de caja respectivos a producción de campo, planta y agroexportación industrial.

April 20, 2019 38


LUCUMA EXPORT MARKET - USA

PHASES II & III REPORT


TARIFF ISSUES

U.S.-Peru Trade Promotion Agreement (USPTA),


Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA),
The Free Trade Agreement (FTA)/Trato del Libre Comercio (TLC):

– Presently there are no tariffs on products such as Lucuma from Peru. Although Peru
and the United States have negotiated a holistic free trade agreement (FTA/TLC), as of
December 2006 it has not been fully ratified by both countries for unrelated internal
political reasons which occurred in both countries since its negotiation.
– Nonetheless, exports from Peru are currently tariff free due to the ongoing Andean
Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) which is due to expire at the end
of 2006.
– Due to the election results in the USA of November 2006, which changed the majority
in the US Senate and House of Representatives to the Democrat Party, the future of
the ratification process of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA/TLC) is unclear.
– However, it is likely (and assumed for this report) that either the ATPDEA will be
extended (likely) or the Free Trade Agreement will be ratified prior to the swearing-in
of the new Democrat Majority (possible) or the new U.S. Congress will ratify it
immediately (unlikely).
– Should there be no preferential trade agreement in force, many of the
assumptions, particularly those dependent to pricing must be reconsidered.
– As an “exotic” product, the absence of a trade agreement would affect Lucuma much
less than other Peruvian Exports (such as cotton garments).

April 20, 2019 40


FDA REGULATIONS

 Food & Drug Administration (FDA) regulations:

– The Public Health Security and Bioterrorism Preparedness and


Response Act of 2002 requires domestic and foreign facilities that
manufacture, process, pack, or hold food for human or animal consumption
in the U.S. to register with the FDA.

– Under the same Bioterrorism Act, foreign companies are required to submit
Prior Notice to the FDA before food is imported or offered for import into
the U.S.

April 20, 2019 41


USE OF DIFFERENT FORMS OF LUCUMA
IN DIFFERENT SEGMENTS

 Processed lucuma are used as raw materials for the food industry, as
well as the foodservice industry:

1. frozen lucuma pulp & fruit chunks: pulped and frozen - used as an
ingredient for ice-cream, yogurt, juices, cocktails, various desserts, jams,
sweet fillings, and confectionery
2. lucuma “coulis” sauce: used as ice-cream sauce/topping and decoration of
dishes - would mainly be used by the foodservice industry
3. aseptic or sterilized lucuma pulp (bag-in-box pack): does not require
refrigeration - used as a raw material in dessert, yogurt and ice-cream
4. thick lucuma “filling”: sweetened product - used directly as a filling for
doughnuts, cookies, waffles, truffles, etc.
5. lucuma purée: for direct consumption, marketed through supermarkets,
especially as a baby and children’s food
6. dried lucuma (chunks or flour): used as a raw material for ice-cream,
cereal mixes (muesli), and desserts in general

April 20, 2019 42


POTENTIAL MARKET SEGMENTS

 Ice cream

 Yogurt

 Flavored milk & milkshakes

 Sweet spreads

 Confectionery

 Bread & bakery products

 Breakfast cereal

 Foodservice & restaurants

April 20, 2019 43


INDUSTRY COMMERCIAL EVENTS IN USA

 Americas Food & Beverage Show & Conference in Miami, FL – November 8~10, 2006
 National Ice Cream Retailers Convention in Savannah, GA – November 8~11, 2006
 Expo Comida Latina in New York, NY – November 14~15, 2006
 Dairy Forum in Orlando, FL – January 14~17, 2007
 Winter Int’l Fancy Food & Confection Show in San Francisco, CA – January 21~23, 2007
 World Ag Expo in Tulare, CA – February 14~16, 2007
 North America Pizza & Ice Cream Show in Columbus, OH – February 25~26, 2007
 Western Candy Conference in San Diego, CA – March 21~25, 2007
 SupplySide East Show in Secaucus, NJ – April 30~May 2, 2007
 Spring International Fancy Food & Confection Show in Chicago, IL – May 6~8, 2007
 Dairy-Deli-Bake Seminar & Expo in Anaheim, CA – June 3~5, 2007
 Summer Int’l Fancy Food & Confection Show in New York, NY – July 8~10, 2007
 American Bakery Expo in Las Vegas, NV – September 8~10, 2007
 National Confectioners Assoc. All Candy Expo in Chicago, IL – September 17~19, 2007
 World Dairy Expo in Madison, WI – October 2~6, 2007
 International Baking Industry Expo in Orlando, FL – October 7~10, 2007
 Worldwide Food Expo in Chicago, IL – October 24~27, USA

April 20, 2019 44


DEMAND FOR SIMILAR PRODUCTS

 Mangoes

 Peaches

 Strawberries

 Others

April 20, 2019 45


RANKING OF ICE CREAM FLAVORINGS IN USA

 A survey ranked ice cream eating preferences among Americans, and


the percentage of respondents favoring each flavor.

Rank Flavor Percent


1. Vanilla 29.0%
2. Chocolate 8.9%
3. Strawberry 5.3%
4. Butter Pecan 5.3%
5. Neapolitan 4.2%
6. Chocolate chip 3.9%
7. French vanilla 3.8%
8. Cookies 'n' cream 3.6%
9. Fudge ripple 2.6%
10. Praline 1.7%

Source: International Ice Cream Association

April 20, 2019 46


ICE CREAM STATISTICS FOR THE
UNITED STATES - I
 Total U.S. production of ice cream and related frozen desserts in 2004
amounted to about 1.6 billion gallons, translating to about 21.5 quarts
per person.

 Total US Production of Frozen Desserts (Hard & Soft) in Million Gallons

Regular Low & Nonfat Frozen Water Other Frozen Total Frozen
Ice Cream Ice Cream Yogurt Sherbet Ices Dairy Products Products
1999 972.2 421.1 90.9 54.5 70.3 13.9 1622.8
2000 979.6 404.1 94.5 51.9 65.8 11.6 1607.6
2001 970.1 402.6 52.6 64.4 71.2 10.5 1571.4
2002 1005.0 359.6 70.8 57.0 67.6 8.7 1568.6
2003 1015.1 373.9 68.0 56.2 67.5 7.9 1588.6
% 2002-3 1.0% 3.8% -4.0% -1.4% -0.0% -9.3% 1.3%

 In 2004, total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen desserts reached
$21.4 billion. Of that total, $8.1 billion was spent on products for "at
home" consumption, while $13.3 billion was spent on "away from
home" frozen dessert purchases (scoop shops, foodservice and other
retail sales outlets.)

April 20, 2019 47


Per Capita ICE CREAM STATISTICS FOR THE
UNITED STATES - II

Regular Ice Reduced Fat Ice Other Frozen


Year Cream (lbs) Cream (lbs) Sherbet (lbs) Products (lbs)
1995 15.5 7.4 1.3 4.8
1996 15.6 7.5 1.3 3.8
1997 16.1 7.8 1.3 3.2
1998 16.3 8.1 1.3 3.4
1999 16.7 7.5 1.3 3.1
2000 16.7 7.3 1.2 2.9
2001 16.3 7.3 1.2 2.2
2002 16.7 6.5 1.3 2.1
2003 16.4 7.5 1.2 2.0
2004 13.8 7.2 1.1 1.9
2005 14.4 5.9 0.9 1.5

April 20, 2019 48


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - I

 Dreyers Grand Ice Cream (subsidiary of Nestle)


– Company website: http://www.dreyers.com/
– 5929 College Ave., Oakland, CA 94618
Tel: 510-652-8187
– 2005 sales: $188.7 million
– Dreyers Grand is one of the three largest ice cream producer in the U.S.
– The company’s ice cream brands include: Dreyers, Edy’s, Healthy Choice,
and Haagen-Dazs
– Dreyers Grand has about 15% market share

April 20, 2019 49


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - II

 Good Humor-Breyers Ice Cream / Unilever Ice Cream


– Company website: http://www.icecreamusa.com
– PO Box 19007, Green Bay, WI 54307
Tel: 920-499-5151
– Unilever is one of the three largest manufacturer of branded packaged ice
cream and frozen novelty products in the U.S.
– The company’s ice cream brands include: Breyers, Good Humor, Klondike,
Popsicle, and Ben & Jerry’s
– Unilever has about 15% market share

 Ben & Jerry’s Homemade (subsidiary of Unilever)


– Company website: http://www.benjerry.com
– 30 Community Drive, South Burlington, VT 05403
Tel: 802-846-1500
– 2005 sales: $272 million
– Ben & Jerry’s is a maker of super premium ice cream
– The company also operates/franchises more than 430 scoop shops in North
America

April 20, 2019 50


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - III

 Blue Bunny (Wells’ Dairy Inc.)


– Company website: http://www.bluebunny.com
– 1 Blue Bunny Dr., Le Mars, IA 51031
Tel: 712-546-4000
– 2005 sales: $850 million
– Blue Bunny is one of the three largest manufacturer of ice cream and
frozen desserts in the U.S.
– The company’s ice cream brands include: Blue Bunny, Bomb Pop, Carb
Freedom, Sweet Freedom, Health Smart, and Incrediples
– Blue Bunny has about 15% market share

April 20, 2019 51


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - IV

 Kemps (business segment of HP Hood)


– Company website: http://www.kemps.com
– 1270 Energy Lane, St. Paul, MN 55108
Tel: 651-379-6500
– Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $750 million
– Kemps manufactures and markets milk, ice cream, and related dairy
products
– The company’s ice cream brands include: Kemps, Caribou Coffee, Pillsbury,
and Twins
– Kemps has about 6%~8% market share

April 20, 2019 52


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - V

 CoolBrands International
– Company website: http://www.eskimopie.com
– 4175 Veteran's Memorial Highway, 3rd Fl., Ronkonkoma, NY 11779
Tel: 631-737-9700
– 2005 sales: $385.1 million
– CoolBrands manufactures and distributes ice cream and other frozen treats
– The company’s ice cream brands include: Eskimo Pie, Godiva, Disney,
Crayola, Yoplait, Better for Kids, Snapple on Ice, No Pudge, Tropicana, Care
Bears, Trix, WholeFruit, Fruit-a-Freeze, and the Sopranos
– CoolBrands has about 4%~5% market share

April 20, 2019 53


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VI

 Blue Bell Creameries


– Company website: http://www.bluebell.com
– 1101 S. Horton, Brenham, TX 77833
Tel: 979-836-7977
– Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $280 million
– Blue Bell is a regional ice cream manufacturer in the southern U.S.
– The company makes ice cream, yogurt, frozen treats, sherbet, low-fat ice
creams, and sugar-free ice creams
– Blue Bell manufactures 18 year-round ice cream flavors and 29 rotational
flavors
– Blue Bell has about 4% market share

April 20, 2019 54


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VII

 Roberts Dairy
– Company website: http://www.robertsdairy.com
– 2901 Cuming St., Omaha, NE 68131
Tel: 402-344-4321
– Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $276.9 million
– Roberts Dairy produces fluid milk, cultured and frozen dairy products
– The company brands include: Roberts and Hiland-Roberts as well as private
labels
– Roberts Dairy has about 1%~2% market share

April 20, 2019 55


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - VIII

 Stonyfield Farm
– Company website: http://www.stonyfield.com
– 10 Burton Dr., Londonderry, NH 03053
Tel: 603-473-4040
– Estimated 2005 sales (Hoovers): $140 million
– Stonyfield is a producer of natural and organic yogurt and ice cream
– The company is a leader among health-food store brands
– Group Danone owns approximately 85% of Stoneyfield Farm
– Stonyfield has less than 1% market share

April 20, 2019 56


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - IX

 Ciao Bella Gelato


– Company website: http://www.ciaobellagelato.com
– 231 40th St., Irvington, NJ 07111
Tel: 973-373-1200
– Ciao Bella is a manufacturer of gelato and sorbet
– The company offers unique flavors such as blueberry, chocolate jalapeno,
fromage blanc, ginger, mango, lychee, passion fruit, cassis, and zabaione
– The company’s brands include: Ciao Bella, Sarabeth’s, and Gotham
– Ciao Bella manufactures 46 gelato flavors, 33 sorbet flavors, 7 frozen
yogurt flavors, and 8 seasonal flavors
– Ciao Bella has less than 1% market share

April 20, 2019 57


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM MANUFACTURERS - X

 Zambeedo Ice Cream


– Company website: http://www.zambeedo.com
– 38245 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd., #F-105, Murrieta, CA 92563
Tel: 951-461-9932
– Zambeedo is a manufacturer of specialty ice cream
– The company’s products are sold through health and natural food stores
– Zambeedo’s unique flavors include Crème de Rose, Crème de Menthe, and
Crème de Chai
– Zambeedo has less than 1% market share

April 20, 2019 58


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - I

 Baskin Robbins (Dunkin’ Brands)


– Company website: http://www.baskinrobbins.com
– 130 Royall Street, Canton, MA 02021
Tel: 781-737-3000
– Estimated 2005 sales (QSR): $555 million
– Baskin Robbins operates the world’s largest chain of ice cream specialty
shops
– The company owns more than 5,600 retail shops in 40 countries
– Baskin Robbins serves 22 permanent ice cream flavors, 12 seasonal flavors,
15 regional flavors, 3 sherbet/sorbet flavors, and 3 frozen yogurt flavors

April 20, 2019 59


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - II

 Carvel Corporation (FOCUS Brands)


– Company website: http://www.carvel.com
– 200 Glenridge Point Pkwy, Suite 200, Atlanta, GA 30342
Tel: 404-255-3250
– Estimated 2005 sales: $86.5 million
– Carvel sells soft serve ice cream and other frozen treats, including
character-shaped frozen ice cream cakes
– The company has a chain of more than 540 franchised ice cream shops in
more than 25 states, primarily in the Northeast
– Carvel also sells ice cream cakes through approximately 8,500
supermarkets nationwide

April 20, 2019 60


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - III

 Coldstone Creamery
– Company website: http://www.coldstonecreamery.com
– 9311 E. Via de Ventura, Scottsdale, AZ 85258
Tel: 480-362-4800
– Coldstone sells custom ice cream creations through it chain of “upscale”
retail locations
– The company operates more than 1,350 stores
– At Coldstone retail locations, customers combine their favorite ice cream
flavor with any number of “mix-ins” (i.e. candies, chocolate, fruits, nuts,
sauces, etc.) to create their personalized ice cream
– Coldstone makes 33 different ice cream flavors
– The company offers 11.5 million possible ice cream creations

April 20, 2019 61


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - IV

 International Dairy Queen (Berkshire Hathaway)


– Company website: http://www.dairyqueen.com
– 7505 Metro Blvd., Edina, MN 55439
Tel: 952-830-0200
– 2005 sales: $108.1 million
– Dairy Queen is a leading franchiser of frozen treat stores, which also serves
a full line of typical “fast food”
– The company has more than 5,600 locations
– Dairy Queen is popular for their ice cream treats, such as “sundaes” and
“soft ice cream” cones

April 20, 2019 62


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - V

 MaggieMoo’s
– Company website: http://www.maggiemoos.com
– 10025 Governor Warfield Pkwy, Suite 301, Columbia, MD 21044
Tel: 410-740-2100
– Estimated 2005 sales: $60 million
– MaggieMoo’s retail shops serves super premium ice cream
– The ice cream is made fresh daily at the retail location
– MaggieMoo’s allows customers to mix in fruits, nuts, or candies to create
custom ice cream flavors

April 20, 2019 63


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - VI

 Marble Slab Creamery


– Company website: http://www.marbleslabcreamery.com
– 3100 S. Gessner, Suite 305, Houston, TX 77063
Tel: 713-780-3601
– Estimated 2005 sales (QSR): $90 million
– Marble Slab operates a chain of more than 540 franchised frozen treat
outlets in 35 states
– The company serves about 40 flavors of homemade ice cream upon which
“mix-ins” are combined to create personalized ice cream flavors

April 20, 2019 64


CUSTOMER ANALYSIS –
ICE CREAM RETAIL CHAIN - VII

 TCBY – The Country’s Best Yogurt (Mrs. Fields Famous Brands)


– Company website: http://www.tcby.com
– 2855 E. Cottonwood Pkwy, Suite 400, Salt Lake City, UT 84121
Tel: 801-736-5600
– TCBY franchises serve frozen yogurt treats at its retail locations
– The company has more than 1,300 locations nationwide
– TCBY serves 17 different hand-scooped frozen yogurt flavors and 41 soft-
served flavors

April 20, 2019 65


FLAVORED MILK & YOGURT STATISTICS
FOR USA

Flavored Whole Other Flavored Total of All Milk


Milk Milk Yogurt Products
Year (million lbs) (million lbs) (million lbs) (million lbs)
1995 704 1,914 1,646 58,433
1996 662 2,075 1,588 58,912
1997 676 2,154 1,574 58,758
1998 788 2,256 1,639 58,618
1999 877 2,339 1,717 59,257
2000 892 2,444 1,837 59,085
2001 973 2,553 2,003 59,021
2002 1,030 3,010 2,135 59,369
2003 1,049 3,141 2,387 59,745
2004 857 3,440 2,709 60,012
2005 754 3,554 2,556 59,900

April 20, 2019 66


MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - I

 Yoplait (General Mills)


– Company website: http://www.yoplait.com
– 1 General Mills Blvd., Minneapolis, MN 55426
Tel: 763-764-7600
– 2006 sales: $1,096 million
– Yoplait manufactures and markets yogurt products
– The company sells 95 different flavors of yogurt and 14 flavors of drinkable
yogurt
– Yoplait has about 34% market share

April 20, 2019 67


MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - II

 Dannon (Danone)
– Company website: http://www.dannon.com
– 100 Hillside Ave., 3rd Fl., White Plains, NY 10603
Tel: 914-872-8400
– Estimated 2005 sales: $572.2 million
– Dannon manufactures and markets yogurt products
– The company offers 42 different yogurt flavors and 16 drinkable yogurt
flavors
– Dannon has approximately 31% market share

April 20, 2019 68


MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - III

 Horizon Organic (Dean Foods)


– Company website: http://www.horizonorganic.com
– PO Box 17577, Boulder, CO 80308
Tel: 888-494-3020
– Horizon Organic is the number one certified organic dairy brand in the U.S.
– The company produces 22 different flavors of organic yogurt as well as 3
drinkable yogurt flavors

April 20, 2019 69


MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - IV

 Light n’ Lively (Kraft)


– Company website: http://www.kraftfoods.com
– 3 Lakes Dr., Northfield, IL 60093
Tel: 847-646-2000
– Kraft sells cottage cheese and yogurt under its Light n’ Lively brand

 Mountain High Yoghurt


– Company website: http://www.mountainhighyoghurt.com
– 1325 West oxford Ave., Englewood, CO 80110
– Mountain High produces and sells all natural European style yogurt
– The company offers 19 different flavors of yogurt

April 20, 2019 70


MARKET SEGMENT – YOGURT –
MANUFACTURERS - V

 Silk (WhiteWave Foods / Dean Foods)


– Company website: http://www.silksoymilk.com
– 12002 Airport Way, Broomfield, CO 80021
Tel: 202-635-4000
– Silk is the best-selling soy-based dairy-alternative product brand in the U.S.
– The company manufactures 9 different flavors of soy yogurt

 Stonyfield Farm
– Company website: http://www.stonyfield.com
– 10 Burton Dr., Londonderry, NH 03053
Tel: 603-437-4040
– Stonyfield produces natural yogurts, organic yogurts, soy-based yogurs,
and drinkable yogurts
– The company offers 18 flavors of natural yogurt, 20 flavors of organic
yogurt, 6 flavors of soy yogurt, and 8 flavors of drinkable yogurt

April 20, 2019 71


MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - I

 Nestle USA
– Company website: http://www.nesquik.com
– 800 N. Brand Blvd., Glendale, CA 91203
Tel: 818-549-6000
– 2005 sales (Nesquik): $18.5 million
– Nestle manufactures ready-to-drink milkshake products under its NESQUIK
brand
– NESQUIK milkshakes are available in 9 different flavors
– Nestle’s NESQUIK milkshake has about 28.5% market share

April 20, 2019 72


MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - II

 The Hershey Company


– Company website: http://www.hersheysmilk.com
– 100 Crystal A. Dr., Hershey, PA 17033
Tel: 717-534-4200
– 2005 sales (milk & milkshake): $17.25 million
– Hershey’s manufactures ready-to-drink milkshakes and flavored milk drinks
– The company produces 5 different flavors of milkshakes and 3 flavors of
flavored milk
– Hershey’s Milkshake has about 17.3% market shake and Hershey’s Milk has
another 9.3% market share

April 20, 2019 73


MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - III

 The Hain Celestial Group


– Company website: http://www.tastethedream.com
– 58 S. Service Rd., Melville, NY 11747
Tel: 631-730-2200
– 2005 sales (Rice Dream): $8.1 million
– The Hain Celestial Group manufactures a refrigerated non-dairy beverage
under its Rice Dream brand.
– The firm was created by the fusion of Hain (“health foods”) and the
previously privately held “Celestial Seasonings” tea company of Boulder
Colorado. The combined fir´m´s penetration in free standing “health food”
stores (driven by the former Hain company), as well as in “health/gourmet”
sections (driven by the former Celestial Seasonings company) of chain and
non-chain supermarkets is a core asset.
– The beverage is available in 2 flavors
– Rice Dream has about 12.5% market share

April 20, 2019 74


MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - IV

 Odwalla (subsidiary of Coca-Cola)


– Company website: http://www.odwalla.com
– 120 Stone Pine Rd., Half Moon Bay, CA 94019
Tel: 650-726-1888
– 2005 sales (Super Protein): $4.3 million
– Odwalla manufactures juice beverages, smoothies, milkshakes, spring
water, nutritional bars, and soy-based drinks
– The company makes 36 different flavors of juices, smoothies and
milkshakes
– Odwalla’s Super Protein milkshake has about 6.7% market share

April 20, 2019 75


MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - V

 Kern’s Beverages
– Company website: http://www.kerns.com
– 5994 West Las Positas Blvd., Suite 209, Pleasanton, CA 94588
Tel: 888-655-3767
– 2005 sales (Horchata): $2.8 million
– Kern’s manufactures fruit nectars and horchata (a light-tasting milk and
rice drink popular in Mexico and other Latin American countries)
– Kern’s Horchata has about 4.3% market share

April 20, 2019 76


MARKET SEGMENT – MILK & MILKSHAKE –
MANUFACTURERS - VI

 Shamrock Farms
– Company website: http://www.shamrockfarms.net
– 2228 N. Black Canyon Hwy., Phoenix, AZ 85009
Tel: 602-272-6721
– 2005 sales (milkshakes): $1.45 million
– Shamrock Farms is the largest family-owned and operated dairy in the
Southwest
– The company produces and distributes a full line of dairy products,
including fresh milk, sour cream, cottage cheese, whipping cream, ice
cream, and more
– Shamrock MMMMILK and MMMMILKSHAKES are available in 12 different
flavors
– Shamrock Farms milkshake has about 2.2% market share

April 20, 2019 77


MARKET DEMAND FOR FRUITS, JUICES &
SWEET SPREADS SEGMENTS

 Statistics for 2004:

Processed Fruit Consumption - 24.52 mm tons


Fresh Fruit Consumption - 38.17 mm tons
Fruit Juice Consumption - 12.5 mm tons

Sweet Spread Market Demand - $1,800 mm

April 20, 2019 78


MARKET SEGMENT – SWEET SPREADS –
MANUFACTURERS – I

 The J. M. Smucker Company


– Company website: http://www.smucker.com
– 1 Strawberry Lane, Orrville, OH 44667
Tel: 330-682-3000
– 2005 sales: $2,154.7 million
– Smucker’s is the number one U.S. producer of jams, jellies, and preserves
– The company also manufactures dessert toppings, juices, and specialty
fruit spreads
– Smucker’s supplies industrial fruit fillings for yogurts and pastries as well

April 20, 2019 79


MARKET SEGMENT – SWEET SPREADS –
MANUFACTURERS – II

 Welch Foods (subsidiary of National Grape Cooperative Assoc)


– Company website: http://www.welchs.com
– 3 Concord Farms, 575 Virginia Rd., Concord, MA 01742
Tel: 978-371-1000
– 2005 sales: $577.8 million
– Welch Foods produces Welch’s brand fruit-based products
– The company’s products include bottled & canned juices, fruit snacks,
sparkling juices, frozen juices, juice concentrates, jams, jellies, preserves,
and juice bars
– Welch Foods is the operating subsidiary of the National Grape Cooperative
Association

April 20, 2019 80


CONFECTIONERY DEMAND IN USA - I
Table 2a. Quantity and Value of Shipments of Confectionery Products: 2005 and 2004
[Quantity in thousands of pounds. Value in thousands of dollars]
2005 2004
Product description Quantity Value Quantity Value
Shipments...............................................................................................
6,493,573 16,880,338 6,208,003 16,465,387

Chocolate and chocolate-type confectionery.......................................................…


3,529,387 9,982,793 3,321,509 9,637,758
Solid........................................................................................................
557,171 1,380,880 515,558 1,324,781
Solid with inclusions...........................................................................
226,685 695,998 232,100 717,137
Enrobed or molded with candy, fruit, nut or granola center...................................................................................
1,373,626 3,780,645 1,314,552 3,748,341
Enrobed or molded with bakery product center.....................................................................................
318,904 920,831 291,074 825,854
Panned.....................................................................................................
627,028 1,584,268 572,468 1,477,856
Assortments and other........................................................................
425,973 1,620,171 395,757 1,543,789

Nonchocolate-type confectionery............................................................................
2,375,779 4,782,775 2,260,636 4,508,332
Hard candy............................................................................................
581,815 1,341,513 568,283 1,247,816
Chewy candy, including granola bars...........................................................................
662,395 1,534,055 585,572 1,336,842
Soft candy..............................................................................................
553,105 865,636 558,409 895,279
Iced/coated................................................................................................
6,898 34,495 n/a n/a
Panned.........................................................................................................
392,094 764,620 370,594 746,049
Licorice and licorice type..........................................................................
179,472 242,456 n/a n/a

Chewing gum, bubble gum, and chewing gum base...............................................................................


382,258 1,616,032 427,674 1,829,463

Confectionery, n.s.k. 1/.................................................................


206,149 498,738 198,184 489,834

3. confectionery
April 20, 2019 industry (i.e. chocolate): 81
CONFECTIONERY DEMAND IN USA - II
Table 3. Consumption of Selected Ingredients by the U.S. Confectionery Industry: 2005 and 2004
[Quantity in thousands of pounds. Value in thousands of dollars]
2005 2004

Quantity Value Quantity Value


Materials consumed...................................................................
n/a 4,131,733 n/a 3,963,981
Sugar (cane-beet).....................................................................................…
2,404,237 663,189 2,367,551 658,321
Cocoa beans.........................................................................…
697,169 603,160 729,265 571,046
Corn syrup including HFCS and dextrose.........................................................................…
1,402,857 172,264 1,363,482 162,671
Chocolate liquor, imported.........................................................................…
n/a n/a n/a n/a
Chocolate liquor, domestic.........................................................................…
n/a n/a 13,070 17,603
Cocoa powder composition coatings.........................................................................…
n/a n/a n/a n/a
Cocoa cake or powder.........................................................................…
127,185 84,114 130,340 90,882
Cocoa butter..........................................................................…
241,620 435,780 247,822 393,380
Chocolate coatings, milk.........................................................................…
216,288 203,350 237,847 227,348
Chocolate coatings, other than milk..........................................................................…
111,047 100,913 114,889 106,991
Fats and oils.........................................................................…
228,785 112,547 221,772 102,107
Gum base..........................................................................…
n/a n/a 66,934 62,565
Milk and milk products..........................................................................…
1,083,423 517,852 1,052,761 481,863
Peanuts, shelled basis..........................................................................…
327,843 158,983 326,548 150,387
Almond kernels..................................................................…
53,731 105,141 50,675 81,024
Other nuts and nut meats (kernels)..................................................................…
35,104 100,366 38,421 97,970
Coconut meat.....................................................................................................…
5,601 5,322 5,511 5,192
Other edible materials 1/...................................................................…
501,978 728,999 493,913 710,371
Materials, n.s.k. .......................................................................................................................................…
n/a 2,133 n/a 2,048

1/Includes corn starch, essential oils, eggs and egg products, fruits, jams, and other materials on which specific data w

n in April
200420, 2019 82
MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – I

 The Hershey Company


– Company website: http://www.hershey.com
– 100 Crystal A Dr., Hershey, PA 17033
Tel: 717-534-4200
– 2005 sales (chocolate): $2,780.9 million
– Hershey is the largest chocolate candy manufacturer in the U.S.
– The company’s confectionery brands include: Hershey’s Kisses, Reese’s,
Twizzlers, Mounds, and York Peppermint Patty
– Hershey has about 44.7% market share

April 20, 2019 83


MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – II

 Mars Inc. (Masterfoods)


– Company website: http://www.mars.com
– 6885 Elm St., McLean, VA 22101
Tel: 703-821-4900
– 2005 sales (chocolate): $1,706.7 million
– Mars is the number two chocolate candy manufacturer in the U.S.
– The company’s confectionery brands include: 3 Musketeers, Dove, Milky
Way, Skittles, Twix, and Starburst
– Mars has about 27.4% market share

April 20, 2019 84


MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – III

 Nestle USA
– Company website: http://www.nestleusa.com
– 800 N. Brand Blvd., Glendale, CA 91203
Tel: 818-549-6000
– 2005 sales (chocolate): $548.8 million
– Nestle is the number 3 chocolate candy manufacturer in the U.S.
– The company’s confectionery brands include: Crunch, Smarties, and KitKat
– Nestle has about 8.8% market share

April 20, 2019 85


MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – IV

 Godiva Chocolatier, Inc. (subsidiary of Campbell Soup)


– Company website: http://www.godiva.com
– 355 Lexington Ave., Fl. 16, New York, NY 10017
Tel: 212-984-5900
– 2005 sales (total): $825 million
– Godiva makes and sells premium chocolate concoctions, including bonbons,
flavored coffee, cookies, ice cream, and liqueur
– The company also operates 275 boutique retail stores in the U.S.

 Ghirardelli Chocolate Company


– Company website: http://www.ghirardelli.com
– 510-483-6970
Tel: 1111 139th Ave., San Leandro, CA 94578
– 2005 sales (total): $150 million
– Ghirardelli makes premium chocolate products such as its signature
chocolate squares, baking chocolate, and chocolate beverage mixes
– The company also operates 12 retail shops

April 20, 2019 86


MARKET SEGMENT – CONFECTIONERY –
MANUFACTURERS – V

 Lindt & Sprungli USA


– Company website: http://www.lindt.com
– One Fine Chocolate Place, Stratham, NH 03885
Tel: 603-778-8100
– 2005 sales (global): $1,707.4 million
– Lindt is Switzerland’s oldest chocolate company and sells premium
chocolates worldwide
– The company’s brands include: Caffarel, Lindor, Lindt, and Swiss Tradition

 See’s Candies
– Company website: http://www.sees.com
– 210 El Camino Real, South San Francisco, CA 94080
Tel: 650-583-7307
– 2005 sales: $325 million
– See’s makes more than 100 varieties of premium chocolate truffles,
caramels, toffee, and other candies
– The company has more than 200 franchised retail shops

April 20, 2019 87


BREAD & BAKERY SEGMENT STATISTICS – USA

 2004 Revenue totaling $33.52 billion, a 2% increase from the previous


year. This is 6.9% of total US food manufacturing revenue.

 2005 Domestic demand totaling $34.60 billion, a 2.2% increase from


the previous year.

 Bread and Bakery Product Manufacturing in the US - Product/Service


Segmentation (June 2005)
– Fresh and frozen bread and rolls 77.4 %
– Frozen cakes, pies and other pastries* 13.5 %
– Other bakery products 9.1 %

* Frozen cakes, pies and other pastries - includes frozen bakery products (except bread), such
as soft cakes (including fruit), pies (including fruit, cream and custard) doughnuts,
danishes, cream puffs, eclairs, fruit muffins and other pastries for immediate human
consumption

April 20, 2019 88


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – I

 Sara Lee Food & Beverage


– Company website: http://www.saralee.com
– 3 First National Plaza, Chicago, IL 60602
Tel: 312-726-2600
– 2005 sales (total): $4,254 million
– Sara Lee is the market leader of bread and bakery products in the U.S.
– The company produces fresh sliced bread, buns, rolls, bagels, and frozen
bakery desserts such as pies, cakes, and cheesecakes
– The Food & Beverage subsidiary also manufactures packaged deli meats
and cheeses and baked goods
– Sara Lee’s bakery brands include: Sara Lee, Healthy Choice, Holsum, and
Roman Meal
– The company has approximately 6.1% market share

April 20, 2019 89


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – II

 Bimbo Bakeries USA (subsidiary of Grupo Bimbo)


– Company website: http://www.bimbobakeriesusa.com
– 14401 Statler Blvd., Fort Worth, TX 76155
Tel: 817-864-2500
– 2005 sales: $1,257.1 million
– Bimbo Bakeries is the U.S. subsidiary of Mexico’s Grupo Bimbo S.A.
– The company manufactures tortillas, bagels, snack cakes, muffins, and
pizza crusts
– Bimbo Bakeries brands include: Bimbo, Mrs. Baird’s, Oroweat, Francisco,
Tia Rosa, and Marinela
– The company has approximately 3.6% market share

April 20, 2019 90


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – III

 Interstate Bakeries Corporation


– Company website: http://www.interstatebakeriescorp.com
– 12 E. Armour Blvd., Kansas City, MO 64111
Tel: 816-502-4000
– 2005 sales: $3,403.5 million
– Interstate Bakeries is one of the largest wholesale bakers in the U.S.,
operating 52 bakeries nationwide
– The company’s bread brands include: Wonder, Merita, and Home Pride
– Interstate Bakeries also produces snack cakes, doughnuts, and sweet-
goods under the brands Hostess, Dolly Madison, and Drake’s
– The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2004 and is still in the
process of reorganization

April 20, 2019 91


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – IV

 Dunkin’ Donuts (Dunkin’ Brands)


– Company website: http://www.dunkindonuts.com
– 130 Royall St., Canton, MA 02021
Tel: 781-737-3000
– 2005 sales (U.S. total): $3,400 million
– Dunkin’ Donuts is the world’s largest coffee and baked goods chain
– The company sells 52 varieties of donuts in addition to an array of bagels,
breakfast sandwiches, and other baked goods
– The company has over 4,000 Dunkin’ Donuts locations

April 20, 2019 92


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAD & BAKERY –
MANUFACTURERS – V

 Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc.


– Company website: http://www.krispykreme.com
– 370 Knollwood St., Suite 500, Winston-Salem, NC 27103
Tel: 336-725-2981
– 2005 sales: $707.8 million
– Krispy Kreme operates a chain of more than 310 shops and more than 80
smaller format satellite locations throughout the U.S.
– In addition to its original glazed doughnut, the company serves cakes, filled
doughnuts, crullers and fritters

April 20, 2019 93


BREAKFAST CEREALS SEGMENT –
MARKET DEMAND – 1995-2005

 2005 – US Cereal Industry (i.e. ready-to-eat, hot cereal, cereal bars)


revenue totaling $9.39 billion, a 3.5% increase from the previous year.
This accounts for 2.5% of total food manufacturing revenue in the
United States

 Domestic demand totaling $9.08 billion, a 3% increase from the


previous year

Industry Industry Gross


Year Revenue ($ mil) % Change Product ($ mil) % Change
1995 13210.8 -2.2 10267.8 0.3
1996 10283.6 -22.2 7307.6 -28.8
1997 10108.1 -1.7 7283.5 -0.3
1998 10596.6 4.8 7806.7 7.2
1999 11668.9 10.1 8891.0 13.9
2000 11702.5 0.3 8926.8 0.4
2001 11813.9 1.0 9006.2 0.9
2002 9098.5 -23.0 6792.4 -24.6
2003 9077.8 -0.2 6563.6 -3.4
Average Annual Growth -2.5 -2.8

April 20, 2019 94


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – I

 Kellogg Company
– Company website: http://www.kelloggcompany.com
– 1 Kellogg Sq., Battle Creek, MI 49016
Tel: 269-961-2000
– 2005 sales: $10,177.2 million
– Kellogg is the number one U.S. breakfast cereal maker
– The company’s brands include: All Bran, Apple Jacks, Cocoa Krispies, Corn
Flakes, Corn Pops, Crispix, Crunch, Froot Loops, Frosted Mini-Wheats, Fruit
Harvest, Honey Smacks, Kellogg’s Organics, Mini-Swirlz, Raisin Bran, Rice
Krispies, and Scooby Doo Berry Bones
– Kellogg has about 23.7% market share

April 20, 2019 95


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – II

 General Mills, Inc.


– Company website: http://www.generalmills.com
– 1 General Mills Blvd., Minneapolis, MN 55426
Tel: 763-764-7600
– 2005 sales: $11,640 million
– General Mills is the number two cereal maker in the U.S.
– The company’s brands include: Cheerios, Chex, Total, Kix, Wheaties, and
Lucky Charms
– General Mills has about 18% market share

April 20, 2019 96


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – III

 Kraft Foods, Inc.


– Company website: http://www.kraft.com
– 3 Lakes Dr., Northfield, IL 60093
Tel: 847-646-2000
– 2005 sales (corporate total): $34,113 million
– Kraft Foods is the number one food company and number three cereal
company in the U.S.
– The company manufactures cereals under its Post brand
– Post cereal brands include: Honey Bunches of Oats, Grape Nuts, Raisin
Bran, 100% Bran, Shredded Wheat, Toasties, Bran Flakes, Fruit & Bran,
Fruity & Cocoa Pebbles, Honeycomb, Strawberry Blasted Honeycomb,
Golden Crisp, Waffle Crisp, Oreo O’s, and Alpha-Bits
– Kraft has about 14% market share

April 20, 2019 97


MARKET SEGMENT – BREAKFAST CEREALS –
MANUFACTURERS – IV

 Quaker Oats (subsidiary of PepsiCo)


– Company website: http://www.quakeroats.com
– P.O. Box 049003, Chicago, IL 60604
Tel: 312-821-1000
– 2005 sales (PepsiCo): $32,562 million
– PepsiCo is the fourth largest cereal maker in the U.S., selling breakfast
cereal through its Quaker subsidiary
– Quaker Oats cereal brands include: Cap’n Crunch, Life, Quisp, Mother’s
Natural, Quaker, and Kretschmer
– PepsiCo has about 11.4% market share

April 20, 2019 98


LUCUMA – US CUSTOMER BUYING PATTERN - I

 The main challenges that U.S. buyers face:

– U.S Consumers in general have not been introduced to Lucuma flavoring

– A few restaurants and a couple of ice cream parlors owned by Peruvians


offer Lucuma ice cream & chocolate truffles

– Lucuma is very expensive if purchased through a distributor/importer in the


U.S. – more than six to eight times the price of that in Peru

– Fresh lucuma is not available in the U.S. so users must purchase lucuma
derivatives – some would prefer to use fresh lucuma

– Inconsistent quality is sometimes a problem for the customers – they


sometimes receive frozen lucuma pulp with blemishes and freezer burns

April 20, 2019 99


LUCUMA – US CUSTOMER BUYING PATTERN - II

 Goya, a well known manufacturer and marketer of frozen food, Caribbean and
Latin American Cuisine appears to have a good experience of Lucuma Sales to
Ice Cream Segment

 Goya started marketing frozen lucuma as recently as the 2006 spring in the US

 They are selling frozen lucuma pulp at $3.99 per 14 OZ

 They claim to have sold as much as 2,500 cases so far (with each case
containing 24 - 14 oz cans

 They have sold so far 21,360 Kgms of Lucuma

 They feel that the ice cream industry seems to like lucuma flavoring

 This augurs well for potential lucuma sales

April 20, 2019 100


CRITERIA FOR MARKET SELECTION &
DESIGNING A SCORING SYSTEM

 This has been already carried out in the earlier meeting with the
“Lucuma Group” on August 9, 2006

April 20, 2019 101


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - I

 American Fruits & Flavors


– Company website: http://www.americanfruits-flavors.com/
– 10725 Sutter Ave., Pacoima, CA 91331
Tel: 818-899-9574
– AFF is an ingredients supplier to the beverage, bakery, dairy, confectionery,
frozen novelties, snack foods, and jams industries
– The company specializes in fruit flavorings, vegetable flavorings, fruit
bases, fruit concentrates, natural sweeteners, and tropical blends

April 20, 2019 102


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - II

 Bioactive Resources
– Company website: http://www.bioactiveresources.com/
– 138 Sylvania Place, South Plainfield, NJ 07080
Tel: 908-561-3114
E-mail: divyad@bioactiveresources.com
– Bioactive Resources is an ingredients supplier for the nutritional
supplement, food, beverage, snacks, and cosmetics industries
– The company carries fruit and vegetable derivatives

 Carlos Steffens Inc.


– Company website: http://www.steffenscorp.com
– 3061 Independence Dr., Suite F, Livermore, CA 94550
Tel: 925-243-6539
– Carlos Steffens is an ingredients broker specializing in concentrated fruit
juices, fruit purees, and pastes

April 20, 2019 103


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - III

 Carmi Flavor & Fragrance


– Company website: http://www.carmiflavors.com/
– 6030 Scott Way, Commerce, CA 90040
Tel: 323-888-9240
E-mail: jennifermontgomery@carmiflavors.com
– Carmi is a flavor developer and ingredients supplier serving the bakery,
beverage, confectionery, dairy, and ice cream industries
– The company carries various fruit flavorings

 Country Pure Foods


– Company website: http://www.juice4u.com/
– 681 W. Waterloo Rd., Akron, OH 44314
Tel: 330-753-2293
– Country Pure Foods is an independent juice processor, manufacturing an
assortment of juices

April 20, 2019 104


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - IV

 Diana Naturals
– Company website: http://www.diana-naturals.com
– 707 Executive Blvd., Valley Cottage, NY 10989
Tel: 845-268-5200
– Diana Naturals is an ingredient supplier to the health food industry
– The company specializes in the production and marketing of natural fruit
and vegetable ingredients

 Dynamic Health Laboratories


– Company website: http://www.dynamic-health.com/
– 110 Bridge St., Brooklyn, NY 11201
Tel: 718-472-4009
– Dynamic Health Laboratories is a contract manufacturers of juices, juice
blends, purees, and concentrates
– The company carries a variety of exotic juices and purees including: goji,
mangosteen, acai, noni, camu camu, aloe vera, papaya, and mango

April 20, 2019 105


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - V

 Encore Fruit Marketing


– Company website: http://www.encorefruit.com/
– 120 West Bonita Ave., Suite 204, San Dimas, CA 91773
Tel: 909-394-5640
– Encore Fruit Marketing is an ingredient broker specializing in fruit purees,
fruit juices, frozen fruits, dried fruits, and fruit concentrates

 Food Partners
– Company website: http://www.foodpartners.net/
– 340 W. Central Ave., Suite 200, Winter Haven, FL 33880
Tel: 863-298-8771
– Food Partners is an ingredient distributor focusing on tropical fruit juices
and related by-products
– The company’s products include: acerola, black current, guabana, guava,
kiwi, mango, papaya, passion fruit, and prickly pear

April 20, 2019 106


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - VI

 FruitSmart Inc.
– Company website: http://www.fruitsmart.com/
– 14502 N. Rothrock Road, Prosser, WA 99350
Tel: 509-786-3500
– FruitSmart is an ingredients supplier and processor specializing fruit
ingredients

 International Flavors & Fragrances


– Company website: https://www.iffxpress.com/
– 150 Docks Corner Road, Dayton, NJ 08810
Tel: 732-329-5466
– International Flavors & Fragrances is a flavor developer and ingredients
suppler for the confectionery, beverage, dairy, bakery, and other food
industry segments

April 20, 2019 107


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS - VII

 iTi Tropicals
– Company website: http://www.ititropicals.com/
– Lawrenceville, NJ
Tel: 800-223-5484
– iTi Tropicals is an importer of tropical fruit purees, concentrates, and fruit
pieces
– The company’s products include: acelora, aloe vera, coconut, guava,
mango, papaya, passion fruit, and tamarind

 RFI Ingredients
– Company website: http://www.rfiingredients.com
– 300 Corporate Drive, Suite 14, Blauvelt, NY 10913
Tel: 845-358-8600
– RFI Ingredient is an ingredient developer and broker for the food and
beverage industries
– The company carries powders, purees, and concentrates of acai, acerola,
camu camu, graviola, guava, mango, papaya, passion fruit, and star fruit

April 20, 2019 108


DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL ANALYSIS -
NODAL POINTS

 Initially it is essential to develop a proper taste and flavoring appealing to the


US Palate

 It is useful to spend some time and money with companies carrying out special
research in these areas in the US

 Once this is done, the next step would be to offer the products to various
manufacturers to try the products

 Only after this, the Distribution Channel should be offered the product to store
and sell after creating suitable demand in the market

 Being a relatively new product, it is totally dependent on the response of


manufacturers of ice cream, yogurt, bakery products, sweet spreads, flavored
milk and breakfast cereals

 A good market research after developing proper taste and flavorings is


therefore essential

April 20, 2019 109


COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - I

 Lucuma has to develop a Market Entry Strategy against stiff competition from
all other flavorings

 In Fruit Pulp Category alone, it meets with competition from the following:
– Mangoes – this is currently placed in “special gourmet” category
– Pineapple – this is gradually making its way felt in selected gourmet ice cream
manufacturers
– Selected tropical fruits – it is left to the imagination of some of the gourmet ice cream
providers to come up with these fruit pulps

 In addition, it is facing competition from the regular flavorings such as Vanilla


(29.6%), Chocolate (8.9%), Strawberry (5.3%), Butter Pecan (5.3%),
Neapolitan (4.2%), Chocolate Chip (3.9%), French Vanilla ((3.8%), Cookies ‘n
Cream (3.6%), Fudge Ripple (2.6%) & Praline (1.7%)

 The above add up to 68.3% and the balance is shared hundreds of products
accounting for 31.7%

 Lucuma will have to start as one of the products in the 31.7% category

 It is well known that Baskin Robbins have over 50 flavorings in their regular
retail chain

April 20, 2019 110


COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS - II

 It is estimated that the Market Demand for various flavorings in


different segments are as below:

In Millions of US$
Ice Cream Segment - 985
Yogurt - 372
Flavored Milk - 617
Sweet Spreads - 364
Confectionery Products - 729
Bakery Products - 1,598
Breakfast cereals - 1,961
TOTAL – ALL SEGMENTS - 6,626

April 20, 2019 111


ASSESSMENT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT - I

 Incremental Capital Investment needed has been calculated at 12.97%


of incremental sales revenue in Year – 5

 For a Sales Revenue of $11.293 million in Year 5, the Incremental


Investment would be $1.465 million

 The model automatically triggers the investment for the incremental


sales revenue well in advance

 Depreciation has been assumed to be 12.5% of Capital Investment

April 20, 2019 112


ASSESSMENT OF CAPITAL INVESTMENT - II

 Incremental Manpower required to handle additional exports has been


arrived at on the basis of 1 person for every $50K exports carried out

 The total personnel costs would be $7.5K p.a. per individual

 The number of incremental jobs created and the incremental wage bill
for the first 5 years would be as below:

CALENDAR YEAR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015


NUMBER OF INCREMENTAL
JOBS CREATED EACH YEAR 69 72 75 4 5 5

TOTAL COSTS OF LABOR 521 1,063 1,626 1,660 1,694 1,842

April 20, 2019 113


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – DEMAND IN VARIOUS
SEGMENTS IN 2006 - I

PROJ. MARKET DEMAND FOR ICE CREAM IN MM LBS 7,234


PROJ. MKT DEMAND FOR YOGURT - MM LBS 2,731
PROJ MKT DEMAND FOR FLAVORED MILK - MM LBS 4,532
SWEET SPREAD INDUSTRY - JAMS, HONEY, PRESERVES
ETC. - MM$ 1,820
CONFECTIONARY INDUSTRY - MM$ 15,547
CONFECTIONARY INDUSTRY - OTHER EDIBLE OILS,
JAMS, OILS & OTHER MATERIALS - MM LBS 508
BAKERY PRODUCTS - MM$ 35,361
BAKERY PRODUCTS WHERE LUCUMA COULD BE USED -
MM$ 7,992
PROJ. BREAKFAST CEREALS REVENUES - MM$ 9,806

April 20, 2019 114


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – GROWTH RATES OF
VARIOUS SEGMENTS

 Ice Cream Segment 1.09%

 Yogurt Segment 1.00%

 Flavored Milk Segment 2.89%

 Sweet Spreads Segment 1.10%

 Confectionery Segment 1.20%

 Bakery Products Segment 2.20%

 Breakfast Cereals Segment 1.83%

April 20, 2019 115


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PRODUCT STRATEGIES

 Develop Product Flavorings appealing to the US Palate

 Approach Two Companies such as Carmi Flavor & Fragrance and


International Flavors & Fragrances, well experienced in this field to
provide quotes

 A consumer panel is to be formed and product testing should take


place

 Different forms of the product to be tried to see whose applicability has


the most favorable response from the consumer panel

 Spending as much as $350K towards developing the optimal blend of


taste, aroma and feel for the product

 Based on Consumer Panel’s reactions, a suitable product or a set of


products would be selected

April 20, 2019 116


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PRODUCTION STRATEGIES

 In the collaborative meetings, one suggestion was that some groups of


growers (within or external to PROLUCUMA) combine forces and make
a binding commitment to produce standardized products which would
resolve a key issue in the current marketplace.
 As suggested by ACM Consulting, this structure could be a “fielcomiso”
(land traust) whereby particpants place their land under contract and
for a specified time (say 5 years) decline rights to cease production of
Lucuma.
– As a consequence, the producers in this category would be givern priority
rights for sales opportunities identified by PROLUCUMA or Government
Entities.
– Production would be combined to create a significant exportable offer, with
participants receiving a corrresponding shareholding in the aggregated
entity.
– Should the industry decide to explore this path, Tiara/ACM is willing to
undertake the financial analysis and develop the marketing strategy for
such an entity.

April 20, 2019 117


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROMOTION STRATEGIES

 Participation in 10 Trade Shows at a total cost of $200K

 Making presentations similar to what Brazil did for their special “berry
product”, “CIAO” last year in US Trade Shows

 Participation in “Food Network” Show, i.e., Channel 46 to display the


variety of food recipes using “Lucuma”. The cost should not exceed,
say $40K

 Free Sampling & Demonstration in 50 selected restaurants, 4 times a


year at a unit cost of $325 per restaurant would involve an overall cost
of $65K

 Advertising in 6 different magazines to a tune of $450

 Overall cost of promotional strategies would be in the region of $755K

April 20, 2019 118


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PRICING STRATEGIES

 It is recommended to have a “Conservative Approach” here

 There is significant evidence that the Distributors in the US are


charging substantially higher price for “Lucuma Pulp” that they have
imported from Peru

 It is also known that some of users of Lucuma for their ice-creams and
chocolate truffles are importing directly from their own sources in Peru
at $2.50 per Kgm.

 We have therefore assumed an import price (fob Peru) at $2.50 per


Kgm

 The model treats “escalating price” as an option in this regard and


shows the relevant results

April 20, 2019 119


STRATEGIC OPTIONS - DISTRIBUTION

 There are quite a few distributors, ready to take on the “Distribution”


as seen in the earlier slides

 However, the Strategy recommended here is to initially develop an


“Optimal Product” and then offer it to ice cream and yogurt
manufacturers and retail chains

 Similarly, develop the products suitable for Confectionery, Bakery and


Breakfast Cereals Segments and then offer it to the respective
manufacturers and marketers

 Thereafter, offer the product both directly through the distribution


channel and also to the manufacturers depending on their order of
preference

April 20, 2019 120


STRATEGIC OPTIONS –
PROJECTED MARKET SHARES

PROJECTED MARKET SHARE IN ICE CREAM SEGMENT 0.23%


PROJECTED MARKET SHARE IN YOGURT SEGMENT 0.15%
PROJ. MKT SHR IN FLAVORED MILK SEGMENT 0.17%
PROJ MKT SHR OF LUCUMA IN SWEET SPREAD SGMT 0.15%
PROJ. MARKET SHARE IN CONFECTIONARY SEGMENGT 0.20%
PROJ. MKT SHR IN BAKERY SEGMENT 0.23%
PROJ. MKT SHARE IN CEREALS SEGMENT 0.29%

April 20, 2019 121


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – ASSUMPTIONS RELATING
TO LUCUMA CONTENT SHARE FOR EACH SEGMENT

PERCENTAGE OF LUCUMA PULP IN ICE CREAM 17.50%


PERCENTAGE OF LUCUMA PULP IN YOGURT 12.50%
PERCENTAGE OF LUCUMA IN FLOVORED MILK 10.00%
% OF SWEETENED LUCUMA IN SWEET SPREAD INDUSTRY 22.50%
% - SWEETENED LUCKUMA IN CONFECTIONARY 15.00%
% OF ASEPTIC LUCUMA IN BAKERY PRODUCTS 11.00%
% OF FREEZE-DRIED LUCUMA IN BREAKFAST CEREALS 9.00%

April 20, 2019 122


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA

 No of Years to Achieve Market Share - 3 Years

 Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) per Kgm- $1.70

 Ratio of Selling Price to COGS - 68.0%

April 20, 2019 123


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED REVENUE
STREAMS FROM DIFFERENT SEGMENTS

CALENDAR YEAR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015


PROJ. INCRMNTL REVENUE
FROM ICE CREAM SGMT - M $ 1,123 2,270 3,442 3,479 3,517 3,672
PROJ. INCR REVENUE FROM
YOGURT SGMT - M$ 213 456 731 780 834 1,086
PROJ. INCRMNTL REVENUE
FROM FLV'D MILK SGMT - M $ 307 631 974 1,003 1,032 1,156
PROJ. LUCUMA SALES IN
SWEET SPREAD SGMT - M $ 208 421 638 645 652 681
PROJ. INCRMTL REVENUE
FROM CONFECTIONARY SGMT
- M$ 58 116 177 179 181 190
PROJ. LUCUMA SALES IN
BAKERY SGMT - MM$ 695 1,420 2,178 2,225 2,274 2,481
PROJ. LUCUMA SALES IN
CEREALS SGMT - MM$ 869 1,770 2,703 2,752 2,803 3,014
PROJ. TOTAL EXPORTS
REVENUE OF ALL SGMTS - M$ 3,473 7,085 10,842 11,064 11,293 12,280

April 20, 2019 124


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED REVENUE STREAMS, COGS,
OPERATING COSTS, CONTRIBUTION MARGIN & EARNING
STREAMS BEFORE TAX

CALENDAR YEAR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015


PROJ. TOTAL EXPORTS
REVENUE OF ALL SGMTS - M$ 3,473 7,085 10,842 11,064 11,293 12,280
PROJ COST OF GOODS SOLD
FOR ALL SGMTS - M$ 2,361 4,818 7,373 7,524 7,679 8,351
CONTRIBUTION MARGIN FROM
ALL SGMTS - M$ 1,111 2,267 3,470 3,541 3,614 3,930
NUMBER OF INCREMENTAL
JOBS CREATED EACH YEAR 69 72 75 4 5 5

TOTAL COSTS OF LABOR 521 1,063 1,626 1,660 1,694 1,842


PROMOTIONAL ONE TIME
COSTS - M$ 350 -
PROMOTIONAL COSTS - FOR
THE FIRST FEW YEARS - M$ 65 65 65 65 65 -
PROMOTIONAL RECURRING
COSTS - M$ 690 690 690 690 690 218
TOTAL OPERATING COSTS FOR
LUCUMA INDUSTRY-M$ 1,626 1,818 2,381 2,415 2,449 2,060
NET OPERATING INCOME
BEFORE TAX & DEPRECIATION -
M$ (515) 449 1,088 1,126 1,165 1,869

April 20, 2019 125


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED EXPORTS OF LUCUMA IN
TONS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT STREAMS & WORKING CAPITAL

CALENDAR YEAR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015


TOTAL LUCUMA TONS
EXPORTED 1,389 2,834 4,337 4,426 4,517 4,912
INCREMENTAL CAPITAL
INVESTMENT NEEDED -
M$ 1,465 - - - - -
CUMULATIVE CAPITAL
INVESTMENT - M$ 1,465 1,465 1,465 1,465 1,465 1,465
DEPRECIATION OF
CAPITAL INVESTMENT -
M$ 183 183 183 183 183 -
WORKING CAPITAL
NEEDED - M$ 1,347 2,748 4,206 4,292 4,381 4,764
INCREMENTAL WORKING
CAPITAL - M$ 1,347 1,401 1,458 86 89 100
WORKING CAPITAL
INTEREST COSTS - M$ 121 247 379 386 394 429

April 20, 2019 126


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED CASH FLOWS

CALENDAR YEAR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2021


AFTER TAX
CASHFLOW FOR
INDUSTRY -
NOMINAL - M$ (2,304) 196 536 556 577 965 1,243
CUMU. AFT TAX
CASH FLOW -
NOMINAL - M$ (2,304) (2,108) (1,572) (1,016) (439) 3,102 9,947
AFT TAX CASH
FLOW FOR THE
INDUSTRY - REAL
- M$ (2,237) 185 490 494 497 740 798
CUMU. AFTER TAX
CASH FLOW -
REAL - M$ (2,237) (2,052) (1,562) (1,068) (570) 2,260 6,981

April 20, 2019 127


STRATEGIC OPTIONS – PROJECTED RESULTS &
ECONOMIC INDICATORS

TOTAL EXPORTS OF LUCUMA PRODUCTS - M$ 170,970


TOTAL FREE CASH FLOW LUCUMA PROJECT - M$ 9,947
NO OF NEW JOBS CREATED - LUCUMA PROJECT 280
NET PRESENT VALUE FOR THE INDUSTRY - M$ 2,340
INTGERNAL RATE OF RETURN - NOMINAL 26%
INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - REAL 22%
SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD - NOMINAL - YEARS 5.58
SIMPLE PAYBACK PERIOD - REAL - YEARS 5.90
PRESENT WORTH PAYBACK PERIOD (PWP) - YEARS 7.17
PRESENT WORTH INDEX - (PWP) 2.14

April 20, 2019 128


Strategic Graphs

 The following grapghs show the results of the Tiara Modeling

 The grapghs show results with and without the suggested 2% annual
price increase as market penetration, demand and channel efficiency
increase
– The 2% Price Increase converts the DRA (Decision and Risk Analysis) for
“Peru Lucuma S.A.” (the entire industry as if it were a firm) from an
approcimately 32% risk (considering 2187 iterations of the 7 key variables)
to an approximately 8.5% risk (using the same 2817 iterations)

April 20, 2019 129


Tornado: Lucuma Variables
No Annual Price Increase

April 20, 2019 130


Tornado: Lucuma Top 7 Variables
No Annual Price Increase

April 20, 2019 131


S-Curve: Lucuma Decision & Risk Analysis
No Annual Price Increase

April 20, 2019 132


Strategic Graphs

The following Tornado Diagram and “S-Curve”

(Decision and Risk Analysis)

show the effect of a 2% annual price increase

April 20, 2019 133


Tornado: Lucuma Variables
With 2% Annual Price Increase

April 20, 2019 134


Tornado: Lucuma Top 7 Variables
2% Annual Price Increase

April 20, 2019 135


S-Curve: Lucuma Decision & Risk Analysis
With Annual Price Increase

April 20, 2019 136


Some Traditional
and Non-Traditional Lucuma Presentations

April 20, 2019 137


Conclusion: Key Findings
from Study and Collaborative Meetings
 The Lucuma industry has “niche” opportunities in the USA, and can achieve
significant profitability at “relatively” or “very” low risk by reaching minute
market shares in key products such as Ice Cream, Flavored Milk and as a
“Bakery Ingredient”
– A key variable in diminishing the risk profile is a 2% price increase annually.
– Initially, larger food firms should not be targeted, direct contacts in the gourmet sector
are essential to introduce the product while strengthening the supply chain

 Without “standardization,” of quality variables such as color, flavor, sugar


content (as well as dependable supply to the USA) Lucuma will remain a
“marginal” export product

 PRO-LUCUMA, must be strengthened (or a new stronger entity created) so well


over 50% of acreage is represented.
– This will allow increased marketing and political strength
– This will allow much better data collection to ensure industry benchmarking and
profitability
– This will allow communication of market demands, and allow growers to meet it with
appropriate quality and standardized offer.

 A public Private partnership is essential to achieve quality, supply and


promotion goals. Likely participants will include PROMPEX and the Private
Sector (whether under the aegis of the gremio PRO-LUCUMA, or large scale
individual firms)

April 20, 2019 138


Next Steps

 Despite the completion of the project, Tiara is willing to re-run the DRA based
on improved data which may come available based on tighter industry
coordination, and furthermore modify any strategic conclusions and
recommendations

 Furthermore, Tiara is willing to re-present this presentation, with any


modifications described above, in January 2007 at no additional cost.

 PROMPEX and PROLUCUMA, and key industry players must convene and decide
what political and financial resources are available for solidifying the industry,
and what strategy recommendations they wish to adopt.
– Upon this decision, further study should be undertaken based on the “new realities”
concluded by the relevant parties
– Now that the “ideal” plan has been developed, Tiara International Consulting is willing,
as an additional study, to adopt a plan based on decisions taken by the relevant
participants.
– The “Land-Trust” concept mentioned earlier should be considered. If accepted it must
be developed with sound economic study and marketing plan (based on the acreage of
willing participants)

 If within a “reasonable time” (e.g. 1 quarter) inertia or other factors delay the
adoption of a holistic plan, individual firms can and should seek opportunities in
the meantime to tap the markets and contacts identified. This is a sub-optimal
solution.

April 20, 2019 139


Gracias por su atención...

TIC LLC
Tiara International Consulting LLC
www.ticllcglobal.com

This document is an exclusive joint property of TIC LLC


and ACM Perú SAC. Neither the whole document, nor
any of its written parts, charts or photos can be used for
any purpose, different from the one defined by both
companies, or by previous notice and written
authorization by them.

April 20, 2019 140

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