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FASHION FORECASTING

FASHION FORECASTING
• It is the prediction of colours and style of
apparel and accessories which are new
directions in fashion that the majority of
people would like to buy at a given time and
place.
• It is anticipating the customers wants and
needs by Designers, Merchandisers and
Buyers.
Why do we need to forecast ?
• Fashion – It is the style or styles most popular at a given time.
The term implies 4 components:- style, acceptance, taste and
change.
• Because of the above 4 components fashion is cyclic.
• It is impossible to ask consumers what they will want to wear
a year or 2 in advance – they would not know themselves.
• Because designers, merchandisers and retailers have to work
well ahead of the season (minimum of 2 seasons) so as to
manufacture stocks in time for the season and to keep the
business going, they have to learn to anticipate the customers
wants and needs – which in turn is called forecasting.
“CHANGE” BEING A BIG FACTOR FOR
FORECASTING
• Factors causing the fashion to change:
– Season
– Occasion
– Social & economical
– Performance/work wear

• Due to the constant requirements and


changes different categories have emerged in
the market, examples:
– Ethnic wear
– Sportswear
– Casual wear
– Formal wear
– Party wear
FASHION FORECASTING INCLUDES
FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES
• Studying market conditions – how the consumers buying
behavior is influenced by society, economics, technology
and the environment,
• Noting the lifestyles of the customers,
• Feedback from customers,
• Past data analysis,
• Observing “street fashion” and what celebrities are
wearing,
• Keeping up with current events, media, arts and the mood
of the public,
• Surveying Fashion publications, catalogs, magazines &
fashion websites,
• Evaluating popular designer collections.
• In FORECASTING
knowing the
consumer and the
target market is
vital.
Each customer is different
• Demographic details
• Income
• Lifestyle
• Brand preferences
MARKET RESEARCH
• To know the Target market, Market Research is
required.
• Manufactures and retailers must constantly research
their target market to learn buying habits and
preferences.
• It consists of following activities:
– CONSUMER RESEARCH
– SHOPPING
– SALES RECORDS
– TREND ANAYLISIS
CONSUMER RESEARCH
• Manufacturers and Retailers may ask consumers about their buying
preferences. Consumer reactions are complied and tabulated to find
preferences for certain garments or accessories, colours or sizes. This
information can be used to create new products to fit specific consumer
tastes.

• Can be done in various ways :


– Buyers and sales associates may talk with customers in the store or with store staff.
– Manufacturers or retailers may hire market research companies for surveys by phone
or mail to make inquiries and to hold consumer focus group meetings.
– Consumer focus groups are meetings of target customers usually selected by a
market research firm to meet with manufacturers or retailers. These groups discuss
pros and cons of merchandise or other aspects of shopping satisfaction.
– Forming Loyalty Club and getting feedback through mails from customers
– From the dealers or retailers selling those products
– Analyzing the customer complaints or garments returned
SHOPPING
• To study what consumers want & need, designers and
merchandisers “shop” in retail stores to see what
merchandise is selling best.
• Designers and merchandisers compare the styling, price,
fit and quality of lines that compete with their own range.
• It also helps in Trend spotting .
SALES RECORDS – PAST DATA ANAYLSIS
• Every manufacturer and retailer researches its own sales records.
• Rising sales statistics show what fashion trends are developing, declining sales
show what styles have passed their peak.
• Overall weak sales show that a style is not meeting consumer needs for
fashion, quantity or fit. By careful monitoring sales records, retailers can see
trends.
• Each style before going in production is allocated a Style number for easy
tracking.
• Tracking the sell through of each style number category wise based on the
shelf life.
• Collecting the best & the worst performers
• Analyzing reasons for the same
• Collecting similar data for colours to arrive at the colour palette for the season.
OBSERVING TRENDS
• Identifying the product category & its competitors
• What is their most sort after product/style?
• Observing the styles, colours or trends widely used
• Identifying its specialty
• Travelling for International Fairs & Trade Shows
• Visiting retail outlets
• Compiling the Data & styles
TREND ANAYLISIS
• FASHION TREND – These are styling ideas that major collections have
in common. They indicate the direction in which fashion is moving.
Trend may appear in a new or unique fabrication, silhouette, or other
design elements that appears in multiple collections. New trend
appears in small doses until it spreads to other collections. Designers
for mainstream manufacturers analyze the collections to understand
trend

• TREND FOR TARGET MARKET – Diverse consumer age segments &


lifestyle create many separate market niches, each with its own
trends. With today's segmented market a trend may be confined to a
single market niche. Designers & merchandisers should be able to
decide which trend is best suited for their consumer group.
FASHION SERVICES AND RESOURCES

• Fashion professionals rely on information


sources such as design, colour & video
services, newsletters, books, magazines, &
websites to follow fashion trends
• Websites
• Fashion magazines
• Categories
followed by
the most of
the Fashion
forecast
websites
How do fashion forecast websites work?

• Global coverage :
– At any given moment WGSN researchers are all
over the world gathering cultural inspiration,
tracking consumer attitudes and monitoring retail
patterns up to 4 seasons in advance.

• Expert teamwork :
– Teams of analysts study the gatherings at our
Think Tank.
Think Tank gets together to...
• Analyze seasonal trend information on colour, textiles and styles absorb
real-time reports, which capture the spirit of the moment
• Develop new ideas based on global learning's
• Ensure learning's across all three are shared between the category
specialists
• Each team is led by a category specialist – a proven expert in their field.
• Crucially, these outstanding talents share their learning's with each
other across the categories, so their expertise is comprehensive.
• Informed by each other, their experience of global trend spotting,
define which trends will have an impact and which ones won't — not
only on the fashion industry but on textile manufacturing, advertising,
technology, even automotive design.
• Original CAD design
– Designers work with the key trends, turning them into
commercially viable colours, textiles, silhouettes, styling
and graphics, and fine- tuning them to suit each market.
– These become tools in designing next year's hottest
product.
– Last year alone WGSN developed more than 3,000
downloadable shapes and graphics for their clients to
use. All of which ensures they get the right information
in the right place, at the right time.

• Confirming the forecasts


– They track the chosen trends in real time, confirming
their forecasts as they materialize.
Role of Fashion Magazines, Journals in
Forecasting
• Trade Publications, magazines are intended for people
working in fashion industry.
• International Consumer Fashion Magazines/
Publications are created for general public
• Catalogues
Role of Trade Publications
• It is in the form of news papers, journals or magazines and offer
readers information on fashion trends and developments in the
textile and fashion industries and retailing.
• Most specialize in a particular branch of the industry so that busy
executives can read only those publications that provide
information relevant to their market.
• These are published as frequently as 5 days in a week or weekly
once.
• Caters to all Categories like women's, kids, men's wear, textiles,
sportswear, VM etc.
• Examples:- Women’s wear daily, DNR (Daily News Record),
Sportswear International
Role of International Consumer Fashion
Magazine

• These publications are aimed at the consumer and show fashion


that is already available in the retail stores. Designers find these
magazines helpful for forecasting as it helps them create trends &
new designs.
• Published only 2 or 4 times in a year.
• Magazines are very important resource for designers, particularly
when budget cuts eliminate design services.
• Designers buy only the magazines that provide suitable ideas for
their specific product. It can be ordered through overseas
Publishers representatives in NY.
• Examples:- Vogue, Harpers Bazaar, Collections, Vogue Bambini,
Baby Fashion
CATALOGUES
• Designers also use catalogs as resources for
ideas. Catalogs are essentially free magazines.
DESIGN SOURCES
• Historic and ethnic costume, the arts, and travel are sources of
inspiration for designers.
• Designers often turn to the past (recent or distant) or to folk
costume for ideas and themes.
• Costume falls into 2 categories and both are inspirational sources
of design:
– Historic costume - the fashion of a certain historical period.
– Folk or ethnic costume - traditional or regional dress.
HISTORIC INFLUENCE
FOLK INFLUENCE
Mexican influence

Ethnic costume of Russia


Chinese folk influence
• VINTAGE CLOTHING SHOPS AND SERVICES
– Designers shop vintage clothing stores, flea markets,
thrift shops, auctions, and online for old garments and
fabrics to interpret for today’s fashion.
– There are also stylists and services that search for
inspirational old clothes for manufacturers.

• MUSEUMS – Museum costume collections offer


the unique opportunity of seeing actual preserved
garments displayed on mannequins.
• Based on the gathered data and information -
forecasting can be done for any apparel or non
apparel category.

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