UNIT I

THE PROBABILITY
THEORY
Module 1

COUNTING
TECHNIQUES
L 1.1
Probability
- is primarily concerned with
predicting chances, especially the
occurrence of an event.

Note: Before predictions can be made,

you should first know how to
determine the outcomes of an event.
Experiment
- probability activity
Outcomes
-results
Ex:
Experiment Outcomes
Toss a fair coin Head and Tail
First Coin Second Coin Possible Outcomes
H HH
H(head)
T HT
H TH
T(tail)
T TT

Fig. 1.1 Tree Diagram of outcomes when tossing

two coins
Example
You are driving down McArthur Highway
where you encounter two intersections. In
each intersection, there are traffic lights
installed displaying green, red, and yellow
lights. How many different sequencing of
lights could you encounter after passing
through the intersections? Draw a tree
diagram to illustrate the number of
possible outcomes.
 G R Y G R Y G R Y

GG GR GY RG RR RY YG YR YY

There are 9 possible sequencing of lights.

Fundamental Counting Principle
- a way to figure out the
total number of ways
different events can occur.
A. Tossing Three Coins
• two possible outcomes each ( first,
second, and third coins)
H T
H T H T
H T H T H T H T

HHH HHT HTH HTT THH THT TTH TTT

Fig. 1.2 Tree diagram of the possible

outcomes when tossing three coins
B. Picking a Card
If you are dealt with a hand of cards
containing 3 aces, 2 kings, and 1 queen and
you pick three cards at random ( containing
an ace, king, and a queen), there are total
of 6 possible combinations as shown in the
tree diagram.

(show deck of cards)

 .𝑨𝟏 𝑨𝟐 𝑨𝟑

.𝑲𝟏 𝑲𝟐 𝑲𝟏 𝑲𝟐 𝑲𝟏 𝑲𝟐

Q Q Q Q Q Q
The possible combinations of cards picked are
𝑨𝟏 𝑲𝟏 Q, 𝑨𝟏 𝑲𝟐 Q,
𝑨𝟐 𝑲𝟏 Q, 𝑨𝟐 𝑲𝟐 Q,
𝑨𝟑 𝑲𝟏 Q, 𝑨𝟑 𝑲𝟐 Q
c. Outfit Selection
Suppose you have 3 tops, 3 pairs of
pants, and 2 pairs of shoes. How many
outfits will be matched?
 Fig. 1.3 Tree
diagram of the 18
different outfits
General Counting Principle:
Multiplication Rule

If k choices are made in which there are

𝒎𝟏 ways for the first choice, 𝒎𝟐 for the
second choice, 𝒎𝟑 for the third choice,
and so on, then there are
𝒎𝟏 x 𝒎𝟐 x 𝒎𝟑 x … x 𝒎𝒌 number of
possible outcomes.
Example 2:
When three dice are thrown, how many
different outcomes are possible?

Solution:
6 x 6 x 6 = 𝟔𝟑 = 216
Example 3:
A four -digit number is formed using
the digits 2, 4, 5, 6, and 9 such that
no digit can be used more than once.

a. How many distinct four-digit numbers

can be formed?
b. How many four-digit numbers
formed are even?
Solution:
No Repetition
a. 5 choices for the thousands digits, 4
choices for the hundreds digit, 3 choices
for the tens digit, 2 choices for the
units digit. So, there are 120 different
numbers that can be formed.

b. Even numbers: (2, 4, 6) 3 choices

Used one of these in the ones digit leaves
you with 4 choices for the thousandths, 3
choices for the hundredths, 2 for the tens
and. = 72
Multiplication Rule
- can be used to mutually exclusive
events or disjoint sets in the same event.

Mutually exclusive events or Disjoint sets

- events that cannot happen
simultaneously.
General Counting Principle:
Addition Rule
- If a choice can be done in
𝒎𝟏 ways and another in 𝒎𝟐 ways
such that the two choices cannot
be made at the same time, then
the total number of possible
outcomes is 𝒎𝟏 + 𝒎𝟐 .
Example 4:
A student, either a junior or a senior,
is to be chosen as the school’s
representative for an extemporaneous
speech contest. If there are 50
juniors and 70 seniors, in how many
ways can be the selection be done?
Solution:
Using the addition rule, there are
50 + 70 = 120 ways to choose a
representative for the contest.
Addition Rule
- can be used to mutually
exclusive events or disjoint sets in
the different events.
 How can you determine whether a
situation illustrates addition rule and not
multiplication rule of the counting
principle?
Quiz 1
1. It is the result.
2. A graphic organizer that makes use of
branching connecting lines.
3. It is about predicting chances.
4. Differentiate addition rule and
multiplication rule.
5. These are the (answer in 3) activities.
Activity 1:
Read and answer the following questions.
Write your answers on a sheet of paper.

1. Students are classified according to gender

(male or female), status (regular or
irregular), and field of specialization
(mathematics, physics, business, or
languages). Draw a tree diagram to find all
possible classifications. Determine the total
number of possible classifications of
students.
2. Draw a tree diagram to show all possible
outcomes when a pair of dice is rolled. How
many outcomes are there?

3. A coffee shop offers five different flavors

of coffee and three flavors of doughnuts.
How many different snack combinations,
consisting of a coffee and a doughnut, are
possible? Draw a tree diagram.
Read and answer the following questions.

In how many ways can you form a four-

digit number from 3, 5, 9, 4, and 2 if
repetition of digits is allowed? Without
repetition?
a. greater than to 3000
b. odd numbers
c. even numbers
d. less than to 4000
2. You have 5 pairs of pants
and 10 pairs of shorts. How
many ways can you combine it
with your new polo shirt?