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Decision-Making
TOPIC OUTLINE
Decision making as a management responsibility
What is decision making?
The decision making process
Approaches in solving process
Quantitative models for decision making
WHAT IS DECISION-MAKING?
- Integral part of modern management.
- Primary function of management.
- a course of action purposely chosen from a set of alternatives to achieve organizational or
managerial objectives or goals.
- are made to sustain the activities of all business activities and organizational functioning
- Decisions are everywhere in the workplace.
- Very crucial for engineers where they always encounter decision making.
- Good Decisions will provide the right environment for continuous growth and success of any
organization.
- Decisions are made at various management levels (i.e., planning, organizing, directing, and
controlling).
- Nickels et al “is the heart of all management function”
DECISION-MAKING AS A MANAGEMENT
RESPONSIBILITY
- problems could arise from various level
- Decision-making is a responsibility of the engineer manager
THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Rational decision-making, according to David H. Holt, is a process involving the
following steps:
1. diagnose problems
2. analyze environment
3. articulate the environment or opportunity
4. develop viable alternatives
5. evaluate alternatives
6. make a choice
7. implement decision
8. evaluate and adapt decision results
DIAGNOSE THE PROBLEM
- “identification of the problem is tantamount to having the problem half-solved”
- A problem exist when there is deviation from what was planned may be caused by
internal or external environment or perhaps natural intervention.
Target Outcome
26, 000 WMT/Day 17,000 WMT/Day
300 days construction timeline 30 days delay of completion
10, 000 has. Topo-Survey/month 8,000 has.
ANALYZE THE ENVIRONMENT
- this is the identification of constraints, which may be spelled out as either internal or external
limitations.
Example of international limitations.
1. Limited funds available for the purchase of equipment.
2. Limited training on the part of employees.
3. Ill-designed facilities.
Examples of external limitations are as follows:
1. Patents are controlled by other organizations.
2. A very limited market for the company’s products and services exists.
3. Strict enforcement of local zoning regulations.
THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT: EXAMPLE
- the engineer-manager will found out whether or not the desired results is achieved.
- If not achieved further analysis is needed to formulate plans.
FEEDBACK AS A CONTROL MECHANISM IN THE
DECISION-MAKING-PROCESS
1. diagnose problem
2. analyze environment
3. articulate problem or opportunity
4. develop viable alternatives
5. evaluate alternatives
6. make a choice
7. implement decision
8. evaluate results
9. results achieved, apply decision
APPROACHES IN SOLVING PROBLEMS
- Engineer manager must be familiar with the following approaches:
1. Qualitative evaluation
2. Quantitative evaluation
QUALITATIVE EVALUATION
This term refers to evaluation of alternatives using intuition and subjective judgment.
Stevenson states that managers tend to use the qualitative approach when:
1. The problem is fairly simple
2. The problem is familiar
3. The costs involved are not great
4. Immediate decisions are needed
QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION
It refers to the evaluation of alternatives using any technique in a group classified as
rational and analytical.
TASKS:
Assign students to report the following:
Reporting:
1. Inventory Models –Mine
2. Queuing Models
3. Network Models
4. Forecasting
5. Regression analysis
6. Simulation
7. Linear Programming
8. Sampling Theory
9. Statistical Decision Theory
PREPARATION OF ALTERNATIVES, SEATWORK
Identify the following:
-Nature of the problem and parameters to be used in preparing alternatives
-Create a hypothetical yet realistic objectives or targets
-Prepare schedule of activities
-Prepare cost analysis
-Assess benefits of each option
-Evaluate and compare alternatives
-Choose the best option
-Proposal