Challenges for the EU in the

Middle East
14th CSDP High Level Course 2018-2019
‘Simone Veil’

Module 4 – Budapest, 4 June, 2019

 What challenges?

• Physical
• Structural
• Political – ideational
 Physical challenges posed by the Middle East

• Geographical proximity – security considerations:

– The Mediterranean – a bridge or a wall?
– Demography
• The demographic explosion has practically finished > after-
waves
• Life expectancy increased > after-waves
– Migration
• The Middle East as a source/transit/target
– Spill-over of conflicts, etc
– Terrorism
 Structural challenges impacting the EU in its
relationship towards the Middle East
• No coherent EU policy – very rarely the 28 with one
voice – „quarrels”
• The Middle East/the MENA/the Mediterranean –
overlapping regions/neighbourhoods
• Overlapping regional security complexes (Barry
Buzan, Astrid Boening)
• Overlapping institutionalized cooperation formats
• Regional – EMP, ENP, UfM
• Bilateral – EU-GCC
• Other – Quartet, E3/EU+3 and Iran
 Political – ideational challenges 1
• Normative power of Europe
– taken as a dictate – memories of historical relations
• Colonization – colonies, protectorates, mandates
• Western –isms – the „socialist” model
– YET, a strong soft power
• „democracy” - freedoms
• The credibility of the EU as a global actor mostly challenged in the
Middle East/Mediterranean – while the EU
– has been considered a „junior partner” of the US – „strategic autonomy”?
– the EU usually taken for a „political dwarf, an economic giant” > financial
crisis > economic power shaken
• the Middle East/Mediterranean is the region where the EU is (still) a
global actor
– The EU, as the largest donor - humanitarian issues – stepping in where the US
has quit (UNWRA)
• the Iranian nuclear deal is the foreign policy success for the EU – even if
together with the others
– Firm political stance, but no financial power to stand by > the moral
credibility is also at stake
 Political – ideational challenges 2
• The political, economic and social transformation of the region
(„challenge … how to sustain progress in the transformational
agenda the EU has set itself, against a backdrop of a more
connected, contested and complex global environment”) is
going on without the EU
– „democratization” vs Islamization
– the Arab Spring
– ISIS/Da’ish
• Challenges to the „resilience-building” the Global Strategy set
forward
 But what resilience?

• resilience in 2011 meant the resilience of the monarchies

• Now – meaning resistance to change and develop further …
• BUT - the social construct in the South - TRIBAL > ISLAM >
EMPIRE > NATION-STATE – all authority-based! – the
„adaptive capability” is huge
• Background: AUTHORITARIANISM and PATRIMONIAL
SOCIETY
• Isn’t our biggest problem the resilience of these societies?
• Restructuring the phrase – on 3 levels:
– State
– Society
– Community
 Levels of resilience building?

• State level
– failed/failing/fragile states – BUT states have shown resilience
• only organized force: the army
– Secularization (secular states)
– Da’ish challenged the state-based system – the end of Sykes-
Picot? – BUT loyalty and identity have evolved to the
TERRITORIAL state
• Society – many of the societies’ needs are satisfied by the
Islamists – although the failure of the MB in
governance/government – YET a factor!
• Community – local governance of their own, tribes
• SO if we want to engage, we have 2 actors: the army
and the Islamists – European ideals?
 Issues in the Middle East/Mediterranean to be
addressed by the EU
• Issues out of dimension within the multilateral frameworks >
new formats:

– The Arab-Israeli peace process (Madrid) > Israel –

Palestine < Quartet (UN, US, EU and Russia)
– Iraq – 1991 Gulf War, 2003 War in Iraq – split in the EU:
old vs new members (Chirac – you should have shut up)
– Iran - E3/EU + 3 and Iran > Iranian nuclear deal – what
after the US withdrawal and (re-)imposition of sanctions
– EU-GCC dialogue – 1988 Cooperation agreement – FTA
talks suspended – will there be a clash of interests
(investments)
– Syria – Friends of Syria > Staffan da Mistura
– Libya – NATO – difference with US
– Turkey – migration vs/and membership