Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Cruz, Eduard
Salamat, Ramil Paolo
DECISION THEORY
• Represents a general approach to decision making
which is suitable for a wide range of operations
management decisions.
• Decision Alternatives
• States of Nature- actual events that may occur in the
future
• Payoff table
EXAMPLE
Suppose a distribution company is considering purchasing a
computer to increase the number of orders it can process
and thus increase its business. If economic conditions
remain good, the company will realize a large increase in its
profit, however, if the economy takes a downturn, the
company will lose money.
Decision Alternatives:
-To purchase the computer
- Not to purchase the computer
States of Nature:
- Good economic conditions
- Bad economic conditions
EXAMPLE
Payoff Table:
State of Nature
Decision Alternatives A B
1 Payoff 1A Payoff 1B
2 Payoff 2A Payoff 2B
TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING
ENVIRONMENTS
I.Decision Making under Certainty
- 5 Decision-Making Criteria:
1.Maximax Criterion- decision maker selects the decision that
will result in the maximum of the maximum payoffs; said to be
“very optimistic”
2.Maximin Criterion- decision maker selects the decision that
will reflect the maximum of the minimum payoffs; said to be
“pessimistic”
TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING
ENVIRONMENTS
II. Decision Making under Uncertainty (without Probabilities)
5 Decision-Making Criteria:
3.Minimax Regret Criterion- decision maker attempts to avoid
regret by selecting the decision alternative that minimizes the
maximum regret.
4.Hurwicz Criterion- is a compromise between the maximax and
maximin criteria; decision maker is neither totally optimistic (as
maximax criterion assumes) nor totally pessimistic (as maximin
criterion assumes).
5.Equal Likelihood/ LaPlace Criterion- weights each state of
nature equally, thus assuming that the states of nature are
equally likely to occur.
TYPES OF DECISION-MAKING
ENVIRONMENTS
III. Decision Making under Risk (with Probabilities)
- Environment in which certain future events have probable
outcomes.
3 Decision-Making Criteria:
1.Expected Value- the decision maker must first estimate the
probability of occurrence of each state of nature, and then the
expected value for each decision alternative can be
computed.
2.Expected Opportunity Loss- expected value of the regret for
each decision.
3.Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)- the
maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional
information.
THE SIX STEPS IN DECISION THEORY
1. Clearly define the problem.
2. List the possible decision alternatives.
3. Identify the possible outcomes/payoffs.
4. List the payoff or profit of each combination of
alternatives and outcomes.
5. Select one of the Mathematical Decision Theory
Models.
6. Apply the model and make your decision.
ACTUAL EXAMPLE:
State of Nature
Decision
(purchase) Good Economic Poor economic
Conditions conditions
Apartment
Building $ 50,000 $ 30,000
Office Building 100,000 -40,000
Warehouse 30,000 10,000
Decision Making under Uncertainty
(without Probability)
1.Maximax Criterion (Max profit) – choose the
alternative with the best possible payoff or the decision
that will result in the maximum of the maximum payoffs.
(risk seeking)
Steps:
1)Identify the maximum payoff for each alternative.
2)Pick the largest maximum payoff from the choices.
Steps:
1) Identify the minimum payoff for each alternative.
2) Pick the smallest minimum payoff.
Decision Making under Uncertainty
(without Probability)
3.Maximin Criterion – choose the alternative with the best of
the worst possible payoffs or the decision that will reflect the
maximum of the minimum payoffs (risk averse).
Steps:
1)Identify the minimum payoff for each alternative.
2)Pick the largest minimum payoff
State of Nature
Apartment
50,000 30,000
Building
Office Building 100,000 -40,000