1 A shift to a world of constant disruption

2 A complete redefinition of scale

3 A new imperative to be networked and open
4 A society marked – and tracked – by digital exhaust
5 A revolution in sensemaking and data analysis
A shift to a world of constant disruption
92% of all scientists

85% of all engineers

who have ever walked the face of the earth…

…are alive today.

Rapid advances in technology…

>

Today, the average smart phone… has more computing power than the
original Apollo mission to the moon
Rapid advances in technology…

>
Today, a musical greeting card can perform 800 times the
number of operations per second as the 1946 general
purpose computer – at less than one millionth the cost.
Impact on information…

It took two centuries to fill the US Library of Congress with more than:

29 million 2.4 million 12 million 4.8 million 57 million

Books and periodicals Recordings Photographs Maps Manuscripts

Today, it takes about 5 minutes for the world to churn the equivalent
amount of new digital information
 Large organizations have invested huge
sums in rapidly aging ways of doing things,
putting them at a disadvantage in a
constantly changing world
A complete redefinition of scale:
small can be powerful
Powerful technology, which was once a
key barrier, is now cheaply available
through the cloud
Consider Animoto, a web media
startup, which initially had about 5,000
people a day trying its service

Animoto
In April 2008, Facebook users went into
a frenzy over the application

750,000 new users signed up in 3 days

facebook Animoto
But because they were on Amazon’s
: : : : :
cloud, the company didn’t have to buy
or configure a single new server
: : : : :

For 10 cents an hour, they just added

extra capacity : : : : :

Lots of it : : : : : : : : : : :

: : : : : : : : : : : : :

: : : : : : : : : : : : :

: : : : : : : : : : : : :
And they’re not the only ones doing it, either

Mogulus
Morph
Nanostellar takes things a step further…
Napera …and rents time on electron microscopes via the web
Ooyala
These typically cost millions of dollars
Pathwork Diagnostics
Peritor
Picnik
Playfish
PostRank
Reddit
Roambi
rPath
Brain power is now as purchasable
as server space
Organizational Change: A new imperative to be
networked and open
Proctor & Gamble got this early on

The company realized that for every one of

its 7,500 scientists and engineers…

…there were 200 more of them outside the

organization with just as much expertise
P&G designed an innovative program, called Connect + Develop,
to reach these people and ideas

Through Connect + Develop, P&G aims to bring

half of its innovation in from outside the company

As result of the program, R&D productivity at P&G

has increased by nearly 60%
In a physically separate, digitally
connected workplace…

…the new leaders will be “mobilizers”

The workforce will find social media to be increasingly
relevant at work

+ + + +
From 2007 to 2008, time spent on social media for work increased by 60%
In a rapidly changing world, organizations will embrace
new models and ways of thinking.

Those that stay behind may lose access to the best talent
A society marked – and tracked – by digital exhaust
 Anyone can tag a
photo of you online

Once a photo is tagged, Face.com’s Phototagger can

identify all other photos of you and tag them

Automatically
You leave digital trails without ever touching a computer…

GPS Systems

Credit cards
Just like there are thousands of websites, there will be
thousands of layers that combine global content to create an
augmented reality and an augmented ID
Combined with cutting edge analytics,
it is increasingly possible to understand
and predict future behavior

Facial expressions predicted poor driving

behavior and identified accidents two
seconds before they occurred with an
average accuracy of 76%

An online shopping study demonstrated

that the face can predict buyer intent with
an average accuracy of 73%
Using powerful technologies and vast sets of data from both the
physical and virtual worlds, it will be possible to:

Profile and Track and Determine

Predict their
identify analyze their their true
future actions
individuals behaviors intents

All of these pose significant threats to traditional notions of privacy.

A revolution in sensemaking and data analysis
With nearly unlimited space,
governments, companies, and individuals 131,072 GB
are storing – and disseminating –
unprecedented amounts of data 128 GB

4 GB

2 GB

1 GB
.5 GB
.25 GB

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2020

Information stored per person worldwide

 .

.
.

.
W
.

.
What we think Where we go
.

.
What we like Who we are

.
.

.
.

This data is increasingly located in the

cloud, where it can be accessed and
analyzed from anywhere
 Not only will organizations of all types be able to do
this kind of analysis (in real-time)

But so will individuals, freed from the constraints of scale

“Emerging Trends”

Bev Neale Rush

CIA/Center for the Study of Intelligence
bevergn@ucia.gov
703.613.1779