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RAPPLE RAPPLE2
.08 .012
.010
.04
.008
.00
.006
-.04
.004
-.08 .002
.000
-.12 II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RAPPLE
40
35
Bolsa de Valores de New
30
York (NYSE) Rendimiento
25
de APPLE
Density
20
15
10
0
-.12 -.10 -.08 -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 .08
Histogram Kernel
Robert Engle
Variance Equation
Modelo ARCH(5):
Los coeficientes son positivos.
El coeficiente de la constante es positivo.
0 ≤ ∑ αi ≤ 1
RESID(-1)^2 0.157522
RESID(-2)^2 0.051604
RESID(-3)^2 0.137837
RESID(-4)^2 0.065214
RESID(-5)^2 0.116274
Suma 0.528451
.012
.010
.008
.006
.004
.002
.000
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RAPPLE2 VARIANZAESTIMADA
Variance Equation
.012
.006
.004
.002
.000
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RAPPLE2 VARGARCHESTIMADA
α0= 0.000019
α1 + β1 = 0.923163
5% level -2.863633
-1.0
10% level -2.567934
-1.5
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
.04 .0020
.02
.0015
.00
.0010
-.02
.0005
-.04
.0000
-.06
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
RSP500
90
80
50
Density
40
30
20
10
0
-.05 -.04 -.03 -.02 -.01 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06
Histogram Kernel
Robert Engle
Variance Equation
Modelo ARCH(6):
Los coeficientes son positivos.
El coeficiente de la constante es positivo.
0 ≤ ∑ αi ≤ 1
RESID(-1)^2 0.210919
RESID(-2)^2 0.120575
RESID(-3)^2 0.147168
RESID(-4)^2 0.178434
RESID(-5)^2 0.046602
RESID(-6)^2 0.097454
Suma 0.801152
.0025
.0020
.0015
.0010
.0005
.0000
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
VARIESTSP500 VARIANZAESTIMADA
Variance Equation
α2= 0.316727
α1 + β1 = -0.270759