Samsubar SALEH

 INSTITUTION : FEB-UGM-ECONOMICS
 WORK EXPERIENCE:
 1. DIRECTOR OF MASTER & Ph.D PROGRAM FEB-UGM.
 2. DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT EC FEB-UGM

 3. CONSULTANT OF BAPPEDA DIY PROVINCE.

 4. BSNP SUPERVISOR OF EDUCATION MINISTRY.
 5. LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE CONSULTANT.
 6. DEPUTY OF RESEARCH & TRAINING PROGRAM FEB.

 7. MEMBER OF ACADEMIC AUDITOR UGM.

 8. SECRETARY OF ECONOMICS PROGRAM FEB-UGM.
 9. RESEARCHER OF INDONESIAN EC REVIEW & OUTLOOK.
 10. INSTRUCTOR OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE.
HP =0811253224, EMAIL = ssamsubar@yahoo.com
 REGULATIONS
1. PLEASE COME 5 MINUTES BEFORE CLASS BEGIN
2. PLEASE TURN-OFF YOUR MOBILE PHONE.
3. DON’T FORGET TO BRING YOUR CALCULATOR.
4. DON’T MAKE ANY OTHER ASSIGNMENTS DURING
THE CLASS ACTIVITY.
5. YOU MUST DO THE QUESTION WHENEVER ONE
OF YOUR FRIENDS ASK FOR YOU TO DO SO.
6. YOU MUST ATTEND THE CLASS AT LEAST 80%.
7. THERE WILL BE NO MAKE –UP EXAM AND QUIZ.
8. BE HONEST. PLEASE GIVE YOUR SIGNATURE
ONLY ON YOUR NAME NOT FOR ANYBODY ELSE!
 Text-books
 1. Douglass, Lind and Marchal:
STATISTICS FOR BUSINESS DECISION.
 2. Wonnacott, Wonnacott :STATISTICS.
 3. Samsubar: Statistik Deskriptif
 Statistik Induktif
 Aplikasi Statistik dalam Bisnis
 TOPICS
1. OVERVIEW THE CONCEPTS OF STATISTICS
2. TYPES OF DATA AND FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION.
3. MEASURE OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
4. MEASURE OF LOCALITY
5. DISPERSION
6. SIMPLE REGRESSION MODEL
7. CORRELATION
 TOPICS
8. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
9. PROBABILITY CONCEPTS.

GRADING SYSTEM:
A. INDIVIDUAL TEST = 5 TIMES = 20%
B. MID SEMESTER EXAM = 30%
C. FINAL EXAM = 35%
D. PROJECT IN LAB = 15 % ( SPSS and Eviews).
 SCORING SYSTEM
SCORES GRADE
85 – 100 A
80 – 84 A–
77 – 79 A/B
74 – 76 B+
71 – 73 B
68 – 70 B/C
65 – 67 C+
62 – 64 C
59 – 61 C/D
< 58 E
 WEEK: 1. STATISTICS
1. A COLLECTION OR A SET OF NUMERICAL
INFORMATION FROM SAMPLE IS CALLED
STATISTICS.
2. DATA CAN BE COLLECTED FROM POPULATION
( THE ENTIRE SET OF INDIVIDUALS OR
OBJECTS OF INTEREST ( PARAMETER ).
3. STATISTICS IS THE SCIENCE OF COLLECTING,
ORGANIZING, PRESENTING & INTERPRETING
DATA TO ASSIST IN MAKING MORE EFFECTIVE
DECISION.
 STATISTICS vs PARAMETER

 PARAMETER STATISTICS
AVERAGE µ X

VARIANCE σ2 S2

STD DEV σ S

PROPORTION π P
 BASIC-CONCEPTS
 WHY SAMPLING?
 SAMPLING ERROR
 NON-SAMPLING ERROR
 VALIDITY
 REABILITY
 DESCRIPTIVE vs INFERENTIAL

 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS IS A METHODS OF

ORGANIZING, TABULATING, SUMMARIZING,
PRESENTING, ANALYZING, INTERPRETING
DATA IN AN INFORMATIVE WAY.

 INFERENTIAL STATISTICS IS THE METHODS

USED TO DETERMINE SOMETHING ABOUT
CHARACTERISTICS OF A POPULATION ON
THE BASIS OF A SAMPLE OR TO INFER
SOMETHING ABOUT A POPULATION. X CAN
BE USED TO ESTIMATE THE µ .
 TYPES OF DATA
 1.TIMES-SERIES
 2. CROSS-SECTION
 3. PANEL ( POOLING-DATA )
 4. PRIMARY DATA
 5. SECONDARY DATA
 VARIABLES & LEVELS OF
MEASUREMENT
 QUALITATIVE OR ATTRIBUTE: CHARACTERISTIC OF
THE DATA IS NONNUMERIC: GENDER, EYE COLOR,
RELIGIOUS AFFILIATION ETC.
 QUANTITATIVE :CHARACTERISTIC OF THE DATA IS
NUMERIC: NUMBER OF CHILDREN IN A FAMILY,
TOTAL MONEY SUPPLY IN THE ECONOMY.
 LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT: NOMINAL (THERE IS NO
PARTICULAR ORDER) , ORDINAL ( DATA ARE
RANKED OR ORDERED ACCORDING TO THE
PARTICULAR TRAIT THEY POSSES.
 INTERVAL: IQ, TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY.
 RATIO: NUMBER OF PEOPLE GOES TO HOSPITAL PER
ANNUM, NUMBER OF HOURS STUDENTS STUDY PER
DAY.
 CONSTRUCTING A FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION
 STEP 1. DECIDE ON THE NUMBER OF CLASSES BY
USING THE FORMULA 2k > N or 1 + 3.3 log N.
 STEP 2. DETERMINE THE CLASS INTERVAL OR
WIDTH: ci = ( HIGHEST – LOWEST ): k.
 STEP 3. SET THE CLASS LIMITS AND COUNT THE
NUMBER OF ITEMS ( FREQUENCIES ) IN EACH
CLASS.
 STEP 4. DETERMINE CLASS BOUNDARIES, THE
MIDPOINTS, CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY
DISTRIBUTION ( UPPER AND BELOW THE CLASS
BOUNDARIES).
 MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
 UNGROUPED DATA:
 MEAN = Σ Xi / N
 MEDIAN: LOCATION OF MEDIAN : (N + 1) : 2,
THEN FIND THE MEDIAN.
 MODE: FIND THE LARGEST FREQUENCY AND
THAN FIND THE VALUE OF MODE.
 EXAMPLE : THE TOEFL SCORE OF 8 MASTER
MANAGEMENT STUDENTS CAN BE SEEN AS
FOLLOW: 524, 535, 545, 525, 516, 530, 535, 540.
 CALCULATE: THE MEAN, MEDIAN AND
MODE.
 MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
 GROUPED DATA :
 MEAN = ( Σ F.M / N )
 MEDIAN = LCB + (N/2 - FCL)/(FCU-FCL) x Ci
FCU – FCL = THE FREQUENCY OF MEDIAN
. MODE = LCB + ( d1 ) / ( d1 + d2 ) x Ci.
. THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF THE MEAN,
MEDIAN AND MODE: SYMMETRIC,
SKEWED TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT.
 APPLICATION
 THE FOLLOWING SCORES WERE MADE BY
Mr “X” of ACCOUNTING STUDENTS ON A
FIRST TEST:
 68 52 49 56 69
 74 40 59 79 81
 43 57 60 88 87
 47 65 55 68 65
 50 78 61 90 83
 65 66 72 63 94
 COMPUTE: THE MEAN, MEDIAN & MODE.
 SKEWNESS

 COUNTRIES: A B C
INCOME:
MEAN $ 1100 $ 1000 $ 1200
MEDIAN 1100 1100 1100
MODE 1100 1200 1000
Std dev 25 30 40

SK = 3 ( MEAN – MEDIAN ) / STD DEV.

 GEOMETRIC MEAN

 GM IS VERY USEFUL IN FINDING THE

AVERAGE OF PERCENTAGES, RATIOS,
INDEXES OR GROWTH RATE.

 √ (x1)(x2) or n√(x1)(x2)… (xn)

n√(VALUE AT THE END PERIOD : VALUE AT START OF PERIOD) - 1

 EXAMPLE
1. SUPPOSE LABOUR RECEIVE A 10 PERCENT
INCREASE IN WAGE THIS YEAR AND A 15
PERCENT INCREASE NEXT YEAR. HOW MUCH
THE AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN WAGE?
2. THE RETURN ON DEPOSIT EARNED BY BNI FOR
5 SUCCESSIVE YEARS WAS: 10%, 12%, 17%, -
5%, 50 %. WHAT IS THE AVERAGE ANNUAL
RETURN ON DEPOSIT?
3. TOTAL ASSETS OF X COMPANY IN 1995 WAS $
1300 M. IN 2005, THE AMOUNT OF TOTAL
ASSETS WAS NEARLY TO $ 1750 M. WHAT IS
THE AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN ITS
ASSETS?
 Week 2. Measures of Locality
 UNGROUPED DATA.
 QUARTILES : LQ1 = ( N + 1 )/ 4, LQ2 = 2 ( N +1)/4
LQ3 = 3 ( N + 1 )/4.
DECILES: LD1 = ( N + 1 )/10 ,…LD9 = 9 ( N + 1 )/10
PERCENTILES: LP1 = ( N + 1 )/100,………………….
LP99 = 99( N + 1 )/100.
EXAMPLE:TOEFL SCORES OF 8 STUDENTS:
516 524 525 530 535 535 540 545.
CALCULATE THE SCORES: Q3, D4, D7, P80.
WEEK: 2. MEASURES OF LOCALITY GROUPED DATA

1. QUARTILES: THE DISTRIBUTION OF DATA IS

DIVIDED INTO FOUR PARTS, EACH PART IS
EQUAL TO 25 %.
 LQ1 = N/4, LQ2 = 2N/4 LQ3 = 3N/4
 Qi = LCB + ( LQi – FCL ) / ( FCU – FCL ) x Ci

2. DECILES: THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE DATA IS

DIVIDED INTO 10 PARTS, EACH PART IS EQUAL TO
10 %.
3. PERCENTILES: THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE DATA
IS DIVIDED INTO 100 PARTS, EACH PART IS EQUAL
TO 1 %.
THE DISTRIBUTION OF SCORES IN A TEST
 SCORES F CB FCLT M FM FM2
 39.5 0
 40 – 50 5 45
 50.5 5
 51 – 61 7 56
 61.5 12
 62 – 72 9 67
 72.5 21
 73 – 83 5 78
 83.5 26
 84 – 94 4 89
 94.5 30
 CALCULATE: Q1 , D6, P90 AND D2.
 : coefficient of variation
 DISPERSION
 VARIABILITY
 DEVIATION
 DISPERSION
 DISPERSION CAN BE USED TO MEASURE
THE VARIABILITY OF THE DATA OR TO
MEASURE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE VALUE OF EACH OBSERVATION AND
ITS AVERAGE VALUE.
 IN OUR DAILY LIFE THIS METHOD CAN BE
USED TO INSPECT THE QUALITY
CONTROL, OF PRODUCT, TO HANDLE RISK,
TO KNOW THE EQUALITY DISTRIBUTION
OF INCOME, TO DETECT THE LIMIT OF
POLUTANTS.
 EXAMPLE
STUDENT SCORES IN STATISTICS TEST
CLASS: A B C
 1 62 100 60
 2 60 20 60
 3 58 95 60
 4 61 25 60
 5 59 90 60
 6 60 30 60
 7 61 85 60
 8 59 35 60

MEAN SCORES: 60 60 60
- CAN YOU EXPLAIN SOMETHING ABOUT THE SCORES?
- IN WHICH CLASS THE SHAPE OF THE DATA IS FLATTER?
 EXAMPLE

 THE FLUCTUATION OF STOCK PRICES DURING THE

LAST 5 DAYS OFFERED BY 3 COMPANIES IN JAKARTA
STOCK MARKET IS AS FOLLOW:
 DAY COMPANY A B C
1 $ 30 $ 130 $ 50
2 32 80 50
3 29 150 50
4 31 100 50
5 33 200 50
IF YOU ARE A BROKER IN THE STOCK MARKET WHICH
ONE IS THE BEST FOR INVESTMENT? WHY?
 DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
 INCOME NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES:
$ 300 – 399 7
400 – 499 10
500 – 599 13
600 – 699 15
700 – 799 10
800 - 899 6
a. Minimum income for 6% the highest.
b. Maximum income for 3% the lowest.
c. Interval income between 12% below the average up to
15% above the average.
d. Minimum income for 2% the highest
 QUALITY CONTROL
 DISTRIBUTION OF LIFETIME 3 BRAND OF DRY
BATTERIES PRODUCED BY ABC MANUFACTURE IN
CAKUNG JAKARTA.

 BRAND: A BRAND: B BRAND: C

 Σ Xi 1800 H 1450 H 1500 H
 Σ ( Xi – X )2 150 H 60 H 160 H
 Σ SAMPLE 15 UNITS 10 UNITS 11 UNITS
(n)
 WHICH BRAND IS BETTER THAN THE OTHER?
 Use coefficient of variation formula
 ABSOLUTE DISPERSION

 THE MOST COMMON MEASURES OF ABSOLUTE

DISPERSION ARE: RANGE, MEAN DEVIATION,
STANDARD DEVIATION AND VARIANCE.
A. UNGROUPED DATA: ( POPULATION )
 VARIANCE = σ
2 = Σ ( Xi – u )2 / N

 STD DEVIATION = SQUARE ROOT OF VARIANCE OR

 σ = √ Σ( Xi – u ) 2 / N

B. UNGROUPED DATA ( SAMPLE )

 VARIANCE = S2 = Σ ( Xi – X )2 /( n – 1 )

 STD DEVIATION = S = SQUARE ROOT OF VARIANCE.

 ABSOLUTE DISPERSION
 GROUPED DATA
 VARIANCE = Σ ( FM2 / N ) - ( FM/N )2
 STD DEVIATION = √ VARIANCE

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ABSOLUTE DISPERSION CAN

NOT BE USED TO MAKE DECISION BECAUSE UNIT OF ACCOUNT
IN EACH VARIABLE ARE NOT THE SAME.
1. EXAMPLE: STANDARD DEVIATION OF INCOME IN COMPANY A =
$100, WHILE STANDARD DEVIATION OF HEIGHT = 5,3 INCHES
(CAN WE EVEN LOGICALLY COMPARE $ AND INCHES? ).
2. STD DEV OF WAGES IN COMPANY A = $ 100, STD DEV OF WAGES
IN COMPANY B = $ 200. CAN YOU CONCLUDE THAT THE
DISTRIBUTION WITH THE $200 STD DEV HAS TWICE THE
VARIABILITY OF THE ONE WITH THE $ 100 STD DEV?
3. WHAT IS NEEDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES IS A MEASURE
OF THE DEGREE OF RELATIVE DISPERSION THAT EXISTS IN
THE DISTRIBUTION BEING STUDIED.
 RELATIVE DISPERSION

 THE MOST POPULAR MEASURE OF RELATIVE

DISPERSION IS THE COEFFICIENT OF
VARIATION ( CV ).

CV = ( STD DEV / MEAN ) x 100 %.

 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
 This method can be used to forecast a variable in the
future by utilizing time series data.
 The model: Y = a + b X
 a = the estimate value of Y at the base year.
 b = the average increase or decrease the value of Y
annually.
 Y = 100 + 0.75 X ( base year = 2012 )
 Y = the consumption of clean water ( million cubic ).

 Y = 120 – 1.10 X ( base year = 2010 )

 Y = the crude oil production ( million barrels )
 Time Series Analysis
 The methods:
 1. Ordinary Least Square.
 2. Semi- averages.
Year Export of Cocoa ( 000 tones )
2009 12.5
2010 13.25
2011 14
2012 14,75
2013 15.5
2014 16.5
a. Construct OLS model ( base = 2009).
b. What is the value of export of Cocoa in 2016 ( assumed the price of
cocoa per ton = $ 1500 ).
c. What is the standard error of estimate?
 Prediction
Rice Production:
Y = 260 + 3 X ( the base year = 2012 )
Y = thousand tonnes
Rice consumption:
Y = 235 + 4.5 X ( the base year = 2010 )
a. What will happen in 2020.
b. When the rice crisis will happen?
c. In the year 2025, how many tonnes of rice should
be imported?
Index-Number
 Index Number
 This method can be used to:
 1. measure the rate of inflation
 2. measure the real value of monetary variales
 Methods:
 A. Simple Aggregative price Index
 B. Relative Price Index
 C. Harmonic Price Index
 D. Quantity Index: Laspeyres, Paache, Drobisch, Fischer
and Edgeworth.
 E. Value Index.
 Macro variables
 Year Price Quantity GDP at current prices
 2012 $ 100 1000 $ 100.000
 2013 120 900 108.000
 2014 140 850 119.000
 2015 150 825 123.750
 2016 160 800 128.000
 Is there any economic growth during the last five year in this
country?
 Calculate GDP at constant price 2013.
 Calculate GDP at constant price 2012.
 Index Number
Commodity Price/kg 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oranges $3 $3.25 $3.75 $4
Banana 4 4.5 5 6
Kiwi 9 10 11 12.5
Apple 5 5.5 6.5 7
Star Fruit 6 7 8 8.5
Avocado 3.5 4 4.5 6

a. Calculate Simple price index in 2014 ( 2012 as the base year )

b. Calculate Relative price index in 2015 ( 2013 as the base year )
c. Calculate Relative price index in 2014 ( 2015 as the base yaer )
d. Calculate Harmonic price index in 2015 ( 2012 as the base year)
 Index Number
Commodity Price: Quantity ( Tones )
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
Chicken $ 4 $4.5 $5 15 22 25
Beef 8 9 10 7 8 10
Lamb 6 7.5 9 12 13 15
Salmon 20 22 25 2 2.5 3.5
Tuna 15 16.5 18 4 5 6

a. Calculate Laspeyres’s index in 2015 (2013 as the base

year).
b. Calculate Paasche’s index in 2015 (2013 as the base year).
 Final Exam
1. Time series analysis : Free-hand Method.
2. Probability: Independent to Conditional
3. Probability: Bayesian Rule
4. Simple Regression model
5. Index Number: simple price index to
Harmonic price Index
6. Quantity Index : Laspeyres, Paasche,
Drobisch and Fischer.
Rumus yang boleh dibawa Ujian
 1. Mean , Median, Modus
 2. Ukuran letak: Quartiles, Deciles,
Percentiles
 3. Ukuran dispersi Mean, Variance,
Standard deviasi dan koeffisien Variasi.
 4. Model Regresi OLS, R , R-Square dan
Standard error of estimate.
 5. Angka indeks: Indeks Sederhana, Indeks
Harga Relative dan Indeks harga
Harmonic.