Chapter 8

Estimation
with Single
Samples

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Learning
Learning Objectives
Objectives
• Know the difference between point and interval
estimation.
• Estimate a population mean from a sample
mean for large sample sizes.
• Estimate a population mean from a sample
mean for small sample sizes.
• Estimate a population proportion from a sample
proportion.
• Estimate the minimum sample size necessary
to achieve given statistical goals.

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Statistical
Statistical Estimation
Estimation
• Point estimate -- the single value of a statistic
calculated from a sample

• Interval Estimate -- a range of values calculated

from a sample statistic(s) and standardized
statistics, such as the Z.
– Selection of the standardized statistic is
determined by the sampling distribution.
– Selection of critical values of the standardized
statistic is determined by the desired level of
confidence.

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Confidence
Confidence Interval
Interval
to Estimate when
to Estimate when nn is
is Large
Large

• Point estimate X
 X
n
• Interval
Estimate

XZ
n
or
 
XZ  XZ
n n
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
 Distribution
Distribution of
of Sample
Sample Means
Means
for
for (1-)%
(1-)% Confidence
Confidence

 
2 2


 X

Z
 Z 0 Z
2 2

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Z
Z Scores
Scores for
for Confidence
Confidence Intervals
Intervals
in
in Relation to 
Relation to 

 
2   2
.5 .5
2 2
 X

Z
 Z 0 Z
2 2

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Distribution
Distribution of
of Sample
Sample Means
Means
for
for (1-)%
(1-)% Confidence
Confidence

 
2 1 1 2
2 2
 X

Z
 Z 0 Z
2 2

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Probability
Probability Interpretation
Interpretation
of
of the
the Level
Level of
of Confidence
Confidence

 
Pr ob[ X  Z    X Z ] 1
2 n 2 n

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Distribution
Distribution of Sample Means
Means
for
for 95%
95% Confidence
Confidence

.025 .025
95%
.4750 .4750

 X

Z
-1.96 0 1.96

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Example:
Example: 95%
95% Confidence
Confidence
Interval for 
Interval for
X  4.26,   11
. , and n  60.

 
X Z  X Z
n n
11. 11
.
4.26  196
.    4.26  196
.
60 60
4.26  0.28    4.26  0.28
3.98    4.54
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
95%
95% Confidence
Confidence Intervals for 
Intervals for

95%

 X

X
X

X
X
X
X

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

95%
95% Confidence
Confidence Intervals for 
Intervals for
Is our interval,
95%
3.98  4.54,
in the red?
 X

X
X

X
X
X
X

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Demonstration
Demonstration Problem
Problem 8.1
8.1
X  10.455,   7.7, and n  44.
90% confidence  Z  1645
.
 
X Z  X Z
n n
7.7 7.7
10.455  1.645    10.455  1.645
44 44
10.455  1.91    10.455  1.91
8.545    12.365

Pr ob[8.545    12.365]  0.90

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
 Demonstration
Demonstration Problem
Problem 8.2
8.2
X  34.3,   8, N = 800 and n  50.
98% confidence  Z  2.33

 N n  N n
X Z   X Z
n N 1 n N 1
8 800  50 8 800  50
34.3  2.33    34.3  2.33
50 800  1 50 800  1
34.3  2.55    34.3  2.55
31.75    36.85
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Confidence
Confidence Interval
Interval to Estimate 
to Estimate
when
when nn is
is Large and  is
Large and is Unknown
Unknown

S
X  Z
n 2

or
S S
X  Z    X  Z
n 2
n 2

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Z
Z Values
Values for Some of the More
Common
Common Levels
Levels of
of Confidence
Confidence

Confidence
Z Value
Level

90% 1.645

95% 1.96

98% 2.33

99% 2.575

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Estimating
Estimating the
the Mean of a Normal
Population:
Population: Small
Small nn and Unknown 
and Unknown
• The population has a normal distribution.
• The value of the population standard
deviation is unknown.
• The sample size is small, n < 30.
• Z distribution is not appropriate for these
conditions
• t distribution is appropriate

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 The
The tt Distribution
Distribution
• A family of distributions -- a unique
distribution for each value of its
parameter, degrees of freedom (d.f.)
• Symmetric, Unimodal, Mean = 0, Flatter
than a Z
• t formula t  X  
S
n

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Comparison
Comparison of
of Selected
Selected tt Distributions
Distributions
to
to the
the Standard
Standard Normal
Normal
Standard Normal
t (d.f. = 25)
t (d.f. = 5)
t (d.f. = 1)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Table
Table of
of Critical
Critical Values
Values of
of tt

df t0.100 t0.050 t0.025 t0.010 t0.005

1 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.656
2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032

23 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807

24 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797
25 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787
 t
29 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756
30 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750

40 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704

60 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660
120 1.289 1.658 1.980 2.358 2.617
 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.327 2.576

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Confidence
Confidence Intervals for  of
Intervals for of aa Normal
Normal
Population:
Population: Small
Small nn and Unknown 
and Unknown
S
X t
n
or
S S
X t    X t
n n
df  n  1
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Solution for Demonstration Problem 8.3
X  2.14, S  1.29, n  14, df  n  1  13
 1.99
  0.005
2 2
t .005,13  3.012
S S
X t    X t
n n
1.29 1.29
2.14  3.012    2.14  3.012
14 14
2.14  1.04    2.14  1.04
.    318
110 .

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Solution
Solution for
for Demonstration
Demonstration Problem
Problem 8.3
8.3
S S
X t    X t
n n
1.29 1.29
2.14  3.012    2.14  3.012
14 14
2.14  1.04    2.14  1.04
. 
110   318
.

.    318
Pr ob[110 . ]  0.99

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Confidence
Confidence Interval
Interval to
to Estimate
Estimate
the
the Population
Population Proportion
Proportion
pq
 pq

p  Z   P  p  Z 
2 n 2 n
where:
p = sample proportion
q = 1 - p
P = population proportion
n = sample size
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
Solution
Solution for
for Demonstration
Demonstration Problem
Problem 8.5
8.5
X 34
n  212, X  34, p    0.16
n 212
q = 1 - p  1  0.16  0.84
90% Confidence  Z  1.645

pq
 pq

p  Z  P  p  Z
n n
( 0.16)(0.84) ( 0.16)( 0.84)
0.16  1.645  P  0.16  1.645
212 212
0.16  0.04  P  0.16  0.04
0.12  P  0.20

.  P  0.20]  0.90
Pr ob[012
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
 Determining
Determining Sample Size
Size
when Estimating 
when Estimating
• Z formula X 
Z

n

• Error of Estimation E  X 
(tolerable error)
• Estimated Sample Size Z 2   Z 2  
2 2 2

n 2  
E  E 
• Estimated    1 range
4

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

 Example: Sample Size when
Estimating 
E  1,   4
90% confidence  Z  1645
.

Z 
2 2


n 2
2
E
2 2


(1645
. ) (4)
2
1
 43.30 or 44

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Solution for Demonstration Problem 8.6
E  2, range  25
95% confidence  Z  1.96
1  1
estimated  : range     25  6.25
4  4

Z
2 2

n 2
E
2 2


(196
. ) ( 6.25)
2
2
 37.52 or 38
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
 Determining
Determining Sample Size
when
when Estimating
Estimating P
P
p$ P
• Z formula Z  P  Q
• Error of Estimationn(tolerable
error)
• Estimated Sample Size E  p$ P

Z PQ
2
n
E
2

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Solution for Demonstration Problem 8.7
E  0.03
98% Confidence  Z  2.33
estimated P  0.40
Q  1  P  0.60

n
Z PQ
2
E
2
( 2.33 )  0.40  0.60

 .003 2

 1,447.7 or 1,448
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-
 Determining Sample Size when
Estimating P with No Prior Information
P PQ 400 Z = 1.96
350 E = 0.05
0.5 0.25
300
0.4 0.24 250
n 200
0.3 0.21
150

0.2 0.16 100

50
0.1 0.09
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
P
1
Z
2

n 4
E
2

© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-

Solution for Demonstration Problem 8.8
E  0.05
90% Confidence  Z  1645 .
with no prior estimate of P, use P  0.50
Q  1  P  0.50
2

n
Z PQ
2
E
2
(1645
. )  0.50  0.50

 .05 2

 270.6 or 271
© 2002 Thomson / Slide 8-