Lecture 8

8
AAOC C111: PROBABILITY &
STATISTICS
BITS-PILANI HYDERABAD CAMPUS
Presented by
Dr. M.S. Radhakrishnan
Email: msr@bits-hyderabad.ac.in
 Lecture 8
Multinomial Distribution

Section 15.1
Text Book: J. SUSAN MILTON and
JESSE C. ARNOLD, Introduction to
Probability and Statistics, Tata McGraw-
Hill Edition, Fourth Reprint 2008.
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5-Aug-19 Prepared by Dr. M.S. Radhakrishnan, BITS-Pilani 3
Multinomial Distribution
Suppose we have a random experiment E that
consists of k outcomes, A1, A2, …, Ak. Let the
probability of getting the ith outcome Ai be pi,
(i = 1, 2, …, k). We make the further
assumption that for all i= 1, 2, …, k, pi, the
probability of getting the ith outcome remains
the same for all independent repetitions
(= trials) of the experiment E.
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For example, when we roll a balanced die, we
get 6 outcomes, namely the 6 numbers that
we may get on the top. And the probability of
getting any one outcome (= number on the
top) =1/6, which remains the same for any
number of rolls of the die.
An item produced by a factory may be
classified as good, has a minor defect or has a
major defect with probabilities 0.90, 0.07 and
0.03 respectively.
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Let us repeat the experiment E independently n
times and let Xi be the number of times that
the ith outcome Ai occurs, (i = 1, 2, …, k). We
note that each Xi is a r.v. that will take any one
of (n+1) values, 0, 1, …, n subject to the
condition X1 + X2 + …+ Xk = n.
We want to find the “joint” probability
distribution of the random variables Xi . That
is we want to find the probability of getting xi
times the outcome Ai out of the n trials, i = 1,
1, 2, …, k.
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That is we want to find the probability

f ( x1, x2 ,..., xk )  P ( X1  x1, X 2  x2 ,..., X k  xk )

Now we can get x1 times the outcome A1 out
of n trials in any one of nCx ways. 1

From the remaining (n – x1) trials, we can

get x2 times the outcome A2 in any one of
( n x1 )
Cx2 ways.
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 Proceeding like this, we find that out of n
trials, we can get x1 times the outcome A1,
x2 times the outcome A2, …, xk times the
outcome Ak , in any one of
( n x1 ) ( n x1  x2 ) ( n x1  x2 ... xk 1 )
n
Cx1  Cx2  Cx3  ... Cxk


n!

 n  x1 !
 ... 
 n  x1  x2  ...  xk 1 !
x1 ! n  x1 ! x2 ! n  x1  x2 ! xk ! n  x1  x2  ..  xk !

n!
 m.e. ways.
x1 ! x2 !...xk !
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The probability of getting x1 times the
outcome A1, x2 times the outcome A2, …, xk
times the outcome Ak , in any one way will be
x1 x2 xk
p p ... p
1 2 k

Hence
f ( x1, x2 ,..., xk )  P ( X1  x1, X 2  x2 ,..., X k  xk )
n! xi  0,1,..., n for all i
 x1 x2 xk
p1 p2 ... pk
x1 ! x2 !...xk ! k
subject to  xi  n.
i 1
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Suppose a balance die is rolled 30 times.
Then the probability of getting 3 ones, 2
twos, 6 threes, 4 fours, 5 fives and 10 sixes
is
3 2 6 4 5 10
30! 1 1 1 1 1 1
            
3!2!6!4!5!10!  6   6   6   6   6   6 
30
30! 1
  
3!2!6!4!5!10!  6 

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Example
Suppose that the probabilities are,
respectively, 0.40, 0.40, and 0.20 that in city
driving a certain kind of imported car will
average less than 22 miles per gallon,
anywhere from 22 to 25 miles per gallon, or
more than 25 miles per gallon.

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Find the probability that among 12 such cars
tested, 4 will average less than 22 miles per
gallon, 6 will average anywhere from 22 to
25 miles per gallon, and 2 will average more
than 25 miles per gallon.

12!
Answer  0.40   0.40   0.2 
4 6 2

4!6!2!

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Remark

We note that for each fixed i = 1, 2, …, n

Xi has a binomial distribution with
parameters n and pi.
Hence E[Xi] = npi and Var [Xi] = npi(1-pi).

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Exercise 2 Section 15.1 Page 641

It is assumed that a labour pool for a

particular industry consists of 40% white
males, 30% white females, 5% black
females, 15% black males, and 10% others.
Ideally the work force should reflect these
percentages. To see if this is the case, a
random sample of 200 workers is selected
and each worker is placed into exactly one
of the above categories. If the work force
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reflects the labor pool, how many workers
are expected in each category? When the
sampling is complete, it is observed that
there are 95 white males, 50 white females,
2 black females, 20 black males and 33
others employed. Do these data lead you to
suspect that the work force does not reflect
the percentages in the labor pool very
well? Explain.

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 Perce Expe Present
ntage cted
White Males 40 80 95
White Females 30 60 50
Black females 5 10 2
Black Males 15 30 20
Others 10 20 33
There is too much variation.
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