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Interpretation
Review
• The forecasting of weather by high-speed computers is known as
numerical weather prediction. Mathematical models that describe
how atmospheric temperature, pressure, winds and moisture will
change with time are programmed into the computer. The computer
then draws surface and upper-air charts, and produces a variety of
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forecasts called progs.
After a number of days, flaws in the computer models – atmospheric
chaos and small errors in the data – greatly limit the accuracy of
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weather forecasts.
Available to the forecaster are a number of tools that can be used
when making a forecast, including surface and upper-air maps,
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computer progs, meteograms, soundings, and satellite information.
Ensemble forecasting is a technique based on running several
forecast models (or different versions of a single model), each
beginning with slightly different weather information to reflect the
errors in the measurements (similar to BCS computer averages).
Ensemble forecasting
• medium-range forecasts
A technique to improve
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initial conditions
Superimpose all results
on the same graph
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♦ “Spaghetti plot”
The most common
outcome is probably the
most likely one
Forecasting Tools
• AWIPS – Advanced Weather
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Interactive Processing System
Meteogram – collection of observations
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cold front will pass through in exactly 3 hours.
Analogue forecast (pattern recognition): “I have seen
these atmospheric conditions before and based on what
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happened back then, I can predict tomorrow’s weather”.
Statistical forecast: the forecast is made based on
♦ Numerical model’s forecast for weather elements
(humidity, cloud cover, wind direction, temperature).
♦ Statistically weighted analogue forecasts based on
those
“The chance of rain is 60%”
• In general: For a
forecast to show
skill, it must be
better than a
persistence
forecast or a
climatological
forecast
The weather over the weekend
Type of Forecasts
• Very short-range forecasts (up to 6 h): based on
satellite images and Doppler radar. Not likely to include
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usually beyond 12 hrs.
Medium range forecast: (3-8 days) Mostly based on
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computer generated weather predictions.
Long-range forecast (up to 16 days). It is not very
accurate. Gives mostly the trends of the weather and
the global expectations.
•
•
Extended forecast – one that goes beyond 3 days
Outlook – how the average weather conditions for a
particular month or a season compare to normal ones.
90-day outlook for
(a) precipitation and (b) temperature
Above normal
Below normal
Below normal
Above normal
Predicting the weather
from local signs.
• Signs of an approaching cold front: hot
and humid air, pressure quickly dropping.
•
Signs of an approaching tropical
storm: decreasing pressure,
increased cloud cover, the
direction and the speed of the
cloud motion (winds).
Weather folklore
• When halo rings the moon or sun,
rain's approaching on the run
FALSE
The Station Model – Appendix B
• Temperature=77 F
• Dewpoint =68 F
• Pressure (mbar) = 998.
• Pressure tendency the last 3 h.
The pressure here has fallen .3 mb
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the last 3 hours.
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Cloud cover: it's mostly black showing that this station is mostly cloudy.
Wind barb: it points to where the wind is coming from. The two ticks
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represent 20 knot winds.
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Present weather: a thunderstorm is occurring at the station.
Pressure tendency: the 1st hour the pressure was steady, then fell the
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last two hours.
Past weather (one hour ago). In this case it was a light rain shower.
Example
Using surface maps to predict the
weather.
Current weather Pressure Tendency
• Skip the last sections “A forecast for six cities” and “A meteorologist
makes a prediction”