의사결정론의 개요

중앙대학교 경영대학 박해철

 The Classical Areas of Management

• Finance
• Marketing
• Organizational Behavior/Personnel Management
• Accounting
• Management Information System
• Management science/Operations Management
• Strategy
• International Business
 The Importance of Management Science
• Management science
–The discipline of applying advanced analytical
methods to help make better decisions.
–Devoted to solving managerial-type problems using
quantitative models
• Applications of Management Science
–Forecasting, capital budgeting, portfolio analysis,
capacity planning, scheduling, marketing, inventory
management, project management, and production
planning.
Successful Applications of Management Science
Successful Applications of Management Science (cont’d)
 Problem Solving Approaches
• Managers tend to use a • Managers tend to use a
qualitative approach to quantitative approach
problem solving when when
1. The problem is fairly 1. The problem is
simple. complex.
2. The problem is 2. The problem is not
familiar. familiar.
3. The costs involved 3. The costs involved
are not great. are substantial.
4. Enough time is
available to analyze
the problem.
 Advantages of the Quantitative Approach
• Directs attention to the essence of an analysis:
to solve a specific problem.
• Results in more objective decisions than purely
qualitative analysis.
• Incorporates advances in computational
technologies to managerial problem-solving.
 Models
• A Model
–An abstraction of reality. It is a simplified, and often
idealized, representation of reality.
• Examples : an equation, an outline, a diagram, and a map
–By its very nature a model is incomplete.

• Mathematical models
–Use numbers and algebraic symbols
–Decision variables
–Uncontrollable variables
 Deterministic versus Probabilistic Models
• Deterministic models
–Used for problems in which information is known with
a high degree of certainty.
–Used to determine an optimal solution to the problem.
• Probabilistic models
–Used when it cannot be determined precisely what
values (requiring probabilities) will occur (usually in
the future).
The Management Science Approach
 Example - Breakeven Analysis
• Breakeven analysis (cost-volume analysis)
–Is concerned with the interrelationship of costs,
volume (quantity of output or sales), and profit.
• The Break-Even Point (BEP)
–The volume for which total revenue and total cost are
equal.
–The dividing line between profit and loss; sales higher
than the break-even point will result in a profit, while
sales that is lower than the break-even point will result
in a loss.
–Where you get “out of the red.”
 Breakeven Analysis
• Components of Break-Even Analysis
–Volume: the level of output of a machine, department,
or organization, or the quantity of sales.
–Revenue: the income generated by the sale of a
product. Total revenue = revenue per unit (selling price
per unit) multiplied by units (volume) sold.
–Costs: costs that must be taken into account
• Fixed costs are not related to the volume of output.
• Variable costs increase and decrease with output.
Total Revenue Increases Linearly as Volume Increases
Fixed Costs
Total Variable Cost
Total Cost
Profit and the Break-Even Point

Profit
Example
 The Classical Areas of
Management Science

• Linear Program
• Network Model
• Decision Analysis
• Queuing Theory
• Simulation
• Project Management
Linear Program :
Example

x1 = quantity of server model 1 to produce

x2 = quantity of server model 2 to produce
maximize Z = 60x1+50x2
Subject to:
Example - Cost per Ounce and Dietary Requirements for Diet Problem
Example - Diet Problem (continued)
Example - Workforce Scheduling
 Other Applications
• Transportation problems
–Developing distribution plans that will minimize total
distribution costs given the capacities of the various
factories and the needs of the warehouses.
• Assignment problems
–Assigning jobs to machines in such a way that the
total cost of performing the jobs is minimized.
Network Model :
A Network Diagram of a Transshipment Problem
A Network Diagram of Harley’s Sand and Gravel Pit
Transshipment Example
Decision Analysis :
 Decision Analysis
• Decision analysis problems are characterized by
the following:
1. A list of alternatives.
2. A list of possible future states of nature.
3. Payoffs associated with each alternative/state of
nature combination.
4. An assessment of the degree of certainty of possible
future events.
5. A decision criterion.
 Example

Suppose that a real estate developer must decide on a

plan for developing a certain piece of property. After
careful consideration, the developer has ruled out “do
nothing” and is left with the following list of acceptable
alternatives:
1. Residential proposal.
2. Commercial proposal #1.
3. Commercial proposal #2.
Suppose that the developer views the possibilities as
1. No shopping center.
2. Medium-sized shopping center.
3. Large shopping center.
General Format of a Decision Table
Payoff Table for Real Estate Developer
 Decision Making under Risk

• Decision making under partial uncertainty

–Distinguished by the present of probabilities for the
occurrence of the various states of nature under
partial uncertainty.
–The term risk is often used in conjunction with partial
uncertainty.
• Sources of probabilities
–Subjective estimates
–Expert opinions
–Historical frequencies
Real Estate Payoff Table with Probabilities

Expected Monetary Value (EMV) approach

Provides the decision maker with a value that represents an average
payoff for each alternative. The best alternative is, then, the one that
has the highest expected monetary value. The average or expected
payoff of each alternative is a weighted average: the state of nature
probabilities are used to weight the respective payoffs.
Approaches to Incorporating Probabilities in
the Decision Making Process
• Expected Monetary Value (EMV) approach
– Provides the decision maker with a value that represents an
average payoff for each alternative.
• Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)
– The opportunity losses for each alternative are weighted by the
probabilities of their respective states of nature to compute a
long-run average opportunity loss, and the alternative with the
smallest expected loss is selected as the best choice.
• Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI)
– A measure of the difference between the certain payoff that could
be realized under a condition of certainty and the expected payoff
under a condition involving risk.
Decision Tree Format

Decision trees are used by decision

makers to obtain a visual portrayal of
decision alternatives and their
possible consequences.
Decision Tree for Real Estate Developer Problem
Real Estate Problem with a Second Possible Decision
Format of Graph for Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis enables decision makers to identify a range

of probabilities over which a particular alternative would be optimal.
The Expected Value Line for Alternative a.
Example of Finding the Expected Value for Alternative a when P(#2) Is .50
All Three Alternatives Are Plotted on a Single Graph
The Line with the Highest Expected Profit Is Optimal for a Given Value of P(#2)
Queuing Models :
Major Elements of Waiting-Line Systems

First come, first served (FCFS)

Priority Classification

Waiting lines are commonly found in a wide range of

production and service systems that encounter variable
arrival rates and service times.
The Total Cost Curve Is U-Shaped

The most common goal of queuing system design is to minimize the combined
costs of providing capacity and customer waiting. An alternative goal is to
design systems that attain specific performance criteria (e.g., keep the average
waiting time to under five minutes
 Operating Characteristics

Lq = the average number waiting for service

L = the average number in the system (i.e.,
waiting for service or being served)
P0 = the probability of zero units in the system
r = the system utilization (percentage of time servers
are busy serving customers)
Wa = the average time customers must wait for service
W = the average time customers spend in the system
(i.e., waiting for service and service time)
M = the expected maximum number waiting for
service for a given level of confidence
Line and Service Symbols for Average Number Waiting,
and Average Waiting and Service Times
Formulas for Poisson Arrivals, Any Service Distribution
Single-Server, Finite Queue Length Formulas
Simulation :
 Simulation
• Simulation
–A descriptive tool for the study of the behavior of a
system under various conditions.
–The goal in simulation is to create a model that will
reflect the behavior of some real-life system in order to
be able to observe how it may behave when certain
inputs or parameters are changed.
–Unlike analytical techniques, it is not an optimizing
technique.
 The Monte Carlo Method
• Monte Carlo Simulation
–A commonly used approach for achieving randomness
that derives its name from its similarity to games of
chance.
• Characteristics of random numbers
–All numbers are equally likely.
–No patterns appear in sequences of numbers.
Random Numbers
Monte Carlo Method
Use of Random Numbers
• In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated
by sampling from a probability distribution..
Monte Carlo Method
Use of Random Numbers
Monte Carlo Method
Use of Random Numbers
• When wheel is spun actual demand for PC’s is determined by a number
at rim of the wheel.
Monte Carlo Method
Use of Random Numbers
• Process of spinning a wheel can be replicated using random numbers
alone.
• Transfer random numbers for each demand value from roulette wheel to
a table.
Simulating a Coin Toss
Normally Distributed Random Numbers
Example - 재고관리 Simulation
일회주문량(Q)=35 재주문점(R)=35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

수요를 위한 보충기간을 위한
주 기초재고 수요량 기말재고 재주문점 보충 기간(주) 입고량b)
난수 난수

1 60 12 5 55 0

2 55 64 7 48 0

3 48 09 5 43 0

4 43 82 8 35 35 11 1

5 35 23 6 29 0 35

6 64 51 7 57 0

7 57 29 6 51 0

8 51 10 5 46 0

9 46 56 7 39 0

10 39 28 6 33 35 96 6
Example - 재고관리 Simulation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

수요를 위한 보충기간을 위
주 기초재고 수요량 기말재고 재주문점 보충 기간(주) 입고량b)
난수 한 난수

11 33 42 6 27 0

12 27 05 5 22 0

13 22 45 6 16 0

14 16 62 7 9 0

15 9 34 6 3 0

16 3 86 8 -5 35 57 2 35

17 30 18 5 25 0

18 25 22 6 19 0 35

19 54 75 8 46 0

20 46 16 5 41 0

21 41 52 7 34 35 28 1

22 34 60 7 27 0 35

23 62 93 9 53 0

24 53 38 6 47 0

25 47 94 9 38 0
Example - 재고관리 Simulation

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

수요를 위한 보충기간을 위
주 기초재고 수요량 기말재고 재주문점 보충 기간(주) 입고량b)
난수 한 난수

31 37 57 7 30 35 33 1

32 30 19 5 25 0 35

33 60 48 6 54 0

34 54 99 9 45 0

35 45 00 4 41 0

36 41 68 7 34 35 21 1

37 34 63 7 27 0 35

38 62 15 5 57 0

39 57 53 7 50 0

40 50 29 6 44 0

총계 1629 261 1368c) 15

평균 40.73 6.53 34.20 2.14

Steps in Simulation

Define the
problem
Set objectives

Develop model

Gather data

Validate model

Design
experiments

Run simulations

Analyze and
interpret results
 Advantages of Simulation
1. It is particularly well-suited for problems that are difficult
or impossible to solve mathematically.
2. It allows an analyst or decision maker to experiment
with system behavior in a controlled environment
instead of in a real-life setting that has inherent risks.
3. It enables a decision maker to compress time in order
to evaluate the long-term effects of various alternatives.
4. It can serve as a mode for training decision makers by
enabling them to observe the behavior of a system
under different conditions.
 Limitations of Simulation
• Probabilistic simulation results are approximations,
rather than optimal solutions.
• Good simulations can be costly and time-consuming to
develop properly; they also can be time-consuming to
run, especially in cases in which a large number of
trials are indicated.
• A certain amount of expertise is required in order to
design a good simulation, and this may not be readily
available.
• Analytical techniques may be available that can
provide better answers to problems.
Project Management :
What is Project ?

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

Build A

A Done

Build B

B Done

Build C

C Done
On time!
Build D

Ship

Unique, one-time operations designed to accomplish

a specific set of objectives in a limited time frame.
St. Adolf’s Hospital

직전선행활동
Activity 내역 책임자

A Select administrative and medical staff.

B Select site and do site survey.
C Select equipment.
D Prepare final construction plans and layout.
E Bring utilities to the site.
F Interview applicants and fill positions in
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment.
H Construct the hospital.
I Develop an information system.
J Install the equipment.
K Train nurses and support staff.
St. Adolf’s Hospital

직전 선행활동
Activity 내역 책임자

A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson

B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A Adams
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing, support staff, maintenance,
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital. D Taylor
I Develop an information system. A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson
St. Adolf’s Hospital

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessor(s) Responsibility
Network Diagram I
A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson
B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A F K A Adams
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing,
Startsupport staff, C
maintenance,
G Finish
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital. D Taylor
I B
Develop an information D
system. H J A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson

E
St. Adolf’s Hospital

Path 기대시간 (wks)

Immediate
Activity Description I Predecessor(s) Responsibility
Completion
A-F-K Time 28 15
A-I-K
A 33
Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson
B Select site and
A-C-G-J-K 67Ado site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. F KA Adams
B-D-H-J-K
D Prepare final69 12
construction 10
plans and layout. 6
B Taylor
B-E-J-K
E Bring utilities43to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing, C G
Startsupport staff, maintenance, Finish
10 35
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital.
B D H JD Taylor
I Develop an information
9 system.
10 40 4A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson
E
24
St. Adolf’s Hospital

Immediate
Activity Description I Predecessor(s) Responsibility
Completion Time
15
A Select administrative and medical staff. — Johnson
B Select site and do site survey. — Taylor
C Select equipment. A F KA Adams
12 10
D Prepare final construction plans and layout. 6B Taylor
E Bring utilities to the site. B Burton
F Interview applicants and fill positions in A Johnson
nursing, C G
Startsupport staff, maintenance, Finish
10 35
and security.
G Purchase and take delivery of equipment. C Adams
H Construct the hospital.
B D H JD Taylor
I Develop an information
9 system.
10 40 4A Simmons
J Install the equipment. E,G,H Adams
K Train nurses and support staff. F,I,J Johnson
E
24
 Other Areas of
Management Science

• Game Theory
• Markov Analysis
• Nonlinear Program
• Multi-criteria Decision Making Model
• Scheduling
• Dynamic Program