Afghanistan

Outline
1. Introduction
2. Historical Background
3. War Against Terror
4. US Exit Strategy from Afghanistan
5. Reconciliation and Exit
6. Pakistan Stakes in Afghanistan
7. Current situation Afghanistan
 Introduction
• Afghanistan is a landlocked multiethnic
country located in the heart of south-central
Asia.
• It is lying along important trade routes
connecting southern and eastern Asia to
Europe and the Middle East.
• Afghanistan as a state was established in 1747
by Ahmed Shah Durrani, 200 years before
Pakistan creation.
 Introduction
• Presently its population is about 36 million.
• Afghanistan has 6 neighbors: China, Iran,
Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmanistan and
Uzbakistan.
• It has a strategic significance in the region and
every Great power of the time has shown its
interest in this area.
 Introduction
• Afghanistan has been dubbed “the Graveyard of
Empires”. During the last three centuries three
powers have been defeated in Afghanistan, first
the British, followed by Soviets and USA is
learning this lesson in 21st century.
• British presence in the region was motivated by
“The Great Game” 1826-1919 (Britain, Russia)
and American presence is motivated by the new
great game.
 Introduction
• During cold war it was the center of
ideological rivalry between the two
superpowers and afterward war against terror
has been fought in this unfortunate part of the
world.
• During the last more than 38 years
Afghanistan in passing through a war like
situation.
 Introduction
• This is mainly because of the Afghanistan
terrain and also afghan people are brave and
warriors. There is an afghan proverb : “You
can take an Afghan to hell with kindness, but
not to heaven by force,”
• The countries of the region are also taking
interest in this area for their own strategic
objectives and are also affected by the
developments taken place in Afghanistan and
Pakistan is the worst sufferers.
 Introduction
• Afghanistan and its people have suffered a lot
during the last so many years and there is no
end to it in the near future.
• Peace can only be established in Afghanistan
if Afghans are allowed to determine their own
future without any interference from any
global power and more importantly from the
countries of the regions and more specifically
its neighbors.
 Historical Background
1. Establishment of Afghanistan in 1747
2. Remained under Monarchy up to 1973. The
last king being Zahir Shah who ruled for 40
Years (1933-1973)
3. Republicanism and political instability
(19973-79)
4. Soviet intervention in Afghanistan (1979-
1989)
5. Civil War in Afghanistan (1990-2000)
6. War Against Terror (2001-2014)
 Republicanism and Political
instability
• In 1973 Afghan Prince Muhammad Daoud
cousin and former PM ousts the Afghan King
with help from the Soviet Union, and
establishes an Afghan republic.
• On 27 April 1978, Nur Muhammad Taraki,
overthrew the government of Mohammad
Daoud, who was assassinated along with all his
family members in a bloody military coup. The
coup became known as the Saur Revolution. On
1 May, Taraki became President.
 Republicanism and Political
instability
• In September 1979, Hafizullah Amin, the
Prime Minister, overthrew Taraki and killed
him.
• In 1979 on the night of Dec. 24, Soviet troops
invaded Afghanistan, sending in some 30,000
troops and overthrew the Amin regime, and
Babrak Karmal became president and
remained president up to 1986.
Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan
• Soon after Soviet intervention, USA started
supporting mujahedeen. Arms and other war
materiel shipped to the rebels, via Pakistan, by
the United States and other countries and by
sympathetic Muslims from throughout the
world.
• USA provided training to 60 thousands people
from 70 different countries. CIA and ISI
coordinated for this purpose.
Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan
• The holy institution of Madrassa was misused
for its own desire to defeat USSR and take
revenge for its defeat in Vietnam.
• The USA treated the Mujahedeen as fighters of
holy war and they were received at the white
House. Same Mujahadeen later on became
terrorist when the become anti-Americans.
Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan
• The war in Afghanistan became a quagmire
for USSR. The Soviets suffered some 15,000
dead and many more injured.
• Despite having failed to implement a
sympathetic regime in Afghanistan, in 1988
the Soviet Union signed Genève Accords with
the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan
and agreed to withdraw its troops.
Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan
• The Soviet withdrawal was completed on Feb.
15, 1989, and Afghanistan returned to
nonaligned status.
• USSR disintegrated in early 1990s and USA
was successful in its objective.
• The cold war also came to an end and USA
emerged as the sole super power which was
termed as NWO
 Civil War in Afghanistan
• Mohammad Najibullah, was president of
Afghanistan from 1986 to 1992. was finally
forced from office by the mujahedeen rebels in
1992. He took refuge in a United Nations
compound, where he was sheltered for the next
four years and when the Taliban militia took
over the capital, Kabul, in 1996, they executed
Najibullah
• In 1992 the Mujahedeen took over Kabul. Prof
Burhanudden Rabbani became president for 4
years.
 Civil War in Afghanistan
• Hizbaislami leader Gulbadeen Hikmatyar
supported by Pakistan opposed to him and
continued to bombard Kabul. Ahmad shah
masood also sided with Hikmatyar.
• Taliban emerged in 1996 and remained in
power till 2001. In the meantime in 1997
Osama Bin Laden took shelter in Afghanistan
who had become anti American and had
established Al-Quida due to two reasons, 1. US
interest in ME Oil resources 2. US support for
Israel.
 Civil War in Afghanistan
• In 1998 Afghanistan under the Taliban was
bombarded for alleged involvement of Al-
Quida and OBL in terrorist action against US
embassies in Two African countries - Kenya
and Tanzania in which 370 people were killed
including US citizens.
• By 2000 about 90% Afghanistan was under
Taliban and the remaining was under
Northern Alliance led by Ahmed Shah
Masood.
 War Against Terror
• This war started in the background of 9/11 in
which 3000 Americans were killed. USA held Al
Quida and its leader OBL responsible.
• When Taliban refused to hand over OBL who had
taken shelter in Afghanistan, USA decided to
invade on 7th October 2001 and hence war against
terror started.
• Within a month the Government of Taliban
ended and Hamid Karzai was nominated as
interim president.
 War Against Terror
• USA was supported by the international
community after passing a resolution in UNSC
and NATO was at its forefront.
• In 2003 USA invaded Iraq and its attention was
accordingly diverted and its military presence in
Afghanistan was reduced to 4000 personal.
• In 2004 constitution was promulgated in
Afghanistan and presidential elections were held
in Hamid Karzai was elected as President for 5
years and reelected in 2009 and third time election
were held in 2014.
 War Against Terror
• By 2006 Taliban regrouped itself and there
started an insurgency in Afghanistan.
• During this war countless lives have been lost
and trillion of dollars have been spent that has
almost bankrupted the world’s richest economy.
• Gen. Colin Powell, commented in 2006 that,
“The US military is almost broken.’’
 War Against Terror
• Gen McChrystal, the US forces Commander in
Afghanistan in 2010, confessed that the
coalition in Afghanistan had a very poor
understanding of the situation and history of
Afghanistan and knew very little about those
that they were fighting against.
 US Exit Strategy
• Presidential candidate of Democratic Party in
2008 Barak Obama promised a change and his
slogan was “Change we can believe”, which was
basically to bring back US troops from Iraq and
Afghanistan.
• On the other hand Republican Party wanted to
continue this war to its logical conclusion.
• US as well as global public opinion was in favor
of ending both wars, therefore Obama was elected.
 US Exit Strategy
• After assuming office in 2009, President Obma
reviewed the situation in both Afghanistan and
Iraq and finally came out with an policy
known as “Surge and Exit Strategy” in
December.
• Under this it was decided to intensify war in
Afghanistan and after overcoming the
resistance, victory would be declared and then
US and other forces would be withdrawn.
 US Exit Strategy
• For intensification Obama requested its Congress
to approve sending 40000 more US troops to which
Congress agreed to send 33000.
• It was also announced that withdrawal from
Afghanistan would start from 1st July 2011 with
no ending date.
• In 2010 no substantial success could be achieved
against expectation despite having 140,000
coalitions forces including 100,000 US troops.
 Reconciliation & Exit
• USA initiated reconciliation process after its
military failure to overcome Taliban
resistance.
• From ‘fight and talk’ Washington went to ‘talk
while leaving’.
• Talks between the Americans and the Taliban
in Doha, Qatar, failed, and a tentative deal to
exchange prisoners and implement other
confidence-building measures fell apart.
 Reconciliation & Exit
• In 2011, USA started withdrawal of its forces
and also announced that it would continue up
to 2014.
• In USA 2012 was a year of presidential
elections and Obama informed the Americans
that as promised in previous elections troops
withdrawal has already started.
• The killing of OBL was presented as a major
victory in war against terror.
 Reconciliation & Exit
• The schedule of exit was that 33,000 troops
every year would be withdrawn starting from
2012 to 2014.
• In 2014 elections were held in Afghanistan
which had become controversial and votes were
recounted.
• With US active role, a unity government was
established, Ashraf Ghani as President and
Abdula Abdula as Chief Executive (PM).
 Reconciliation & Exit
• The new Government on its second day signed a
strategic pact with USA and it was agreed that
about 10,000 US troops would stay in Afghanistan
for another two years (2015-2016).
• They would not be involved in any combat
operations and would be providing training to
Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan
National Police having a total force of 350,000
crated 2011 onward for replacing US and other
forces.
 Reconciliation & Exit
• In order to divide the resistance forces, the
Obama administration made a distinction
between Taliban and Al Quida, by declaring
the latter as its actual enemy and target.
• The Taliban's were further divided into Good
and Bad Taliban – good (70%)were ready for
talks and bad (30%) were ready for fight,
having a total strength of 25,000-
 Reconciliation & Exit
• The reconciliations efforts could not be
successful as the Americans had three
conditions for Taliban to fulfill;
• 1. Renounce violence
• 2. Delink from Al-Quida
• 3. Accept Afghan constitution as legitimate.
• Taliban had only one condition and that was
talks only possible if foreign troops are
withdrawn.
 US Exit -2014
• Mr. Obama said the withdrawal of combat
troops from Afghanistan would free up
resources to confront an emerging terrorist
threat stretching from the Middle East to
Africa.
• “Americans have learned that it’s harder to end
wars than it is to begin them,” he said. “Yet
this is how wars end in the 21st century.”
 US Exit -2015-16
• For two years 2015-16, about 10,000 US troops
were staying in Afghanistan as agreed in US-
Afghan strategic agreement of 2014.
• On his departure Obama, left some troops in
Afghanistan, so that the new president could
device its policy on assumption of office.
• The new President could withdraw its forces or
could continue with its presence in
Afghanistan.
 Trump Policy in Afghanistan
• Three core interests of USA in Afghanistan
have been listed as under:
1. Deserve victory after making sacrifices.
2. Quick exit is not an option as this mistake has
been made in Iraq.
3. Threat from the region is immense as there
exist 20-designated terrorists organization and
there are two nuclear powers in the region.
 Trump Policy in Afghanistan
• US strategy will change as under:
1. A shift from a time-based approach to one based on
conditions.
2. The integration of all instruments of American
power.
3. Change the approach in how to deal with Pakistan.
4. Further develop its strategic partnership with India,
5. Military have the necessary tools and rules of
engagement to make this strategy work.
 US Spending in Afghanistan
• The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan
Reconstruction in its 36th quarterly report
released on July 30, 2017,
• Estimated that the total American spending on
the war and reconstruction in Afghanistan
stands at $714 billion,
• Including $675bn obligated for the Department
of Defence in the last 15 years.
 US Objectives
• Three “D”s that is Defeating, dismantling and
destroying “Al-Quida”
• New great game and having an eye on the Gas
resources of CAR.
• Containment of China and possibly of Russia in
the wake of new “cold war”.
• 3 trillion estimated natural resources of
Afghanistan itself.
• Keeping a check on Iran and Pakistan nuclear
ambitions.
 Pakistan Interest in Afghanistan
• Pakhtunistan and Durand line
• Afghanistan as our second enemy after India.
• During cold war USSR-India-Afghanistan
nexus.
• During USSR presence in Afghanistan,
Pakistan supported Mujahedeen for two
reasons:
• An Islamic country is under soviet invasion
• Own security
 Pakistan Interest in Afghanistan
• During civil war of 1990s Pakistan was
instrumental in creating Taliban.
• After 9-11, Pakistan took a U-turn on its
policy towards Taliban in Afghanistan
• Presently Pakistan is interested for the
following reasons;
• Establishment of peace in Afghanistan
• Pro- Pakistan Government
• Reducing Indian influence
 Pakistan Interest in Afghanistan
• Despite US pressure Pakistan was reluctant to
undertake operation in North Waziristan
against Haqqani Network, which is allegedly
involved in various attacks against the
US/NATO and afghan forces.
• Cross boarder firing has increased in the recent
past and Pakistan is trying to stop such
incidents in future.
 Current situation Afghanistan
• Current situation Afghanistan can be
discussed under the following;
1. Security situation
2. Political situation
3. Economic situation
 Security situation
• Security situation is not under the control of
the government.
• 40% of the Afghanistan in under the Taliban
• In the remaining 60%, Taliban resort to bomb
blasts and suicide bombing.
• The Presidential palace is at times targeted.
Afghan Govt accuse pakistan instead of
securing itself.
 Political situation
• After the controversial Presidential elections
of 2014, a unity government is in place with
the US assistance.
• Two presidential candidates have been
combined which are virtually divided.
• The Governors of provinces are divided. The
security forces are divided.
• Initially one was pro-Pakistan and the other
was pro-India.
 Economic situation
• Afghanistan is 80% dependent on foreign aid.
• Infrastructure is shattered. There is little
possibility of foreign investment in war
ravaged country.
• Their own rich people are staying abroad.
There is little economic activity taking palce in
Afghanistan.
 Five-point formula for Peace
(4/4/2017)
• Pakistan's newly-appointed ambassador to the
United States, Aizaz Chaudhry, has offered a five-
point formula for restoring peace in Afghanistan
that includes:
1. No military solution,
2. Better relations between Pakistan and
Afghanistan,
3. Better border management,
4. Repatriation of Afghan refugees and
5. Taking forward the reconciliation process.
 Conclusion
• It is concluded that Afghanistan has suffered
during the last 37 years and it still continues.
• It is their leadership which is responsible for
this state of affairs followed by regional
countries and global power.
• Peace can only be established if people are
allowed to determine their own future.