Various Downscaling Techniques

Downscaling the GCM outputs to

the river basin scales GCM Grid
(~2.50)
Global climate models (GCM: resolution -

Downscale
coarser than 20) ; Size of grid box: Tens of
thousands of square kilometers.

Grid size of
interest in
hydrology
(~0.20 – 0.50)
 Downscaling for Hydrologic Impact Assessment
• Bridge the gap between GCM’s ability
and hydrologic need : spatio-temporal
scale mismatch

• GCM is efficient for monthly scale

projections while some of the
hydrologic models needs daily or
hourly scale information

• Hydrologic variables: precipitation,

evapotranspiration, runoff, soil
moisture not well simulated
 Downscaling Basics

A schematic diagram describing the statistical downscaling approach. GCMs provide

useful predictions for large-scale atmospheric patterns (lower part). Details contained within a
grid box (upper part) are influenced by local features beyond the resolution of current global
climate models.[Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/info/GreenhouseEffectAndClimateChange.pdf ]
Statistical Downscaling Terms
Statistical Downscaling Assumptions
1) Predictors relevant to local predictands should
be adequately reproduced by the host climate
model.
2) The relationship between the predictors and
predictands are time-invariant.
3) The predictor set sufficiently incorporates the
future climate change signal.
4) The predictors used for determining future
climate should not lie outside the range of the
climatology used to calibrate the downscaling
model
Statistical Downscaling is a two step process:
1) Development of statistical relationship
between local climate variables (e.g. surface
air temperature and precipitation) and large
scale predictors (e.g pressure fields), and
2) The application of such relationships to the
output of GCM experiments to simulate local
climate characteristics in the future
 Advantages of RCM

• The main advantage of RCMs is that they can

resolve smaller–scale atmospheric features such
as orographic precipitation or low–level jets
better than the host GCM.

• Furthermore, RCMs can be used to explore the

relative significance of different external forcings
such as terrestrial–ecosystem or atmospheric
chemistry changes.
 Disadvantages of RCM
• The main limitation of RCMs is that they are as
computationally demanding as GCMs (placing
constraints on the feasible domain size, number
of experiments and duration of simulations).
• It is inflexible means expanding the downscaling
region or moving to slighly different region
requires redoing the entire experiments
• Can not produce station scale information
Simple Downscaling Methods
 Simple downscaling methods:
Analogues
Analogues make use of observed data

– Spatial analogue
• Select area with climate similar to that predicted
• Simple but inflexible: limited by availability

– Temporal analogue
• Select time period with desired climate
• Simple but inflexible: may not have period with
predicted properties
 Simple downscaling methods:
Change Factors (Delta method)
• Very widely used
• Most commonly used method in UK water
industry assessments (up to 2009!)
• Take change factor between control and future
simulations of climate models (GCM or RCM)
and apply to observed climate series (e.g.
monthly rainfall totals)
• More sophisticated use of change factors is with
stochastic methods such as weather generators –
more later….
 Simple downscaling methods: Bias
correction (local scaling)
raw model output corrected model output

observed station data raw model output

1961-1990 2071-2100
Simple downscaling methods:
Bias correction (QQ correction)
 Start from Day 2 ; Day 1 status
is randomly assigned Begin Next Day

Generate f(u)
uniform random
number, u
u

No
u <=Pcrit Set rainfall for the day = 0 Pcrit = P01

Yes Pcrit=P11

Generate f(u)
uniform random
number, u
u

No f(y) Generate heavy rainfall

u <= P12 y amount using equation
(7) By Monte-Carlo
simulation
Yes

f(x) Generate moderate

x rainfall amount using
equation (6) by Monte-
Carlo simulation

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Downscaling by Rainfall Generator
Observed Daily Time Series GCM Data for Control Period GCM Data for Future Periods
(1969-1998) (2021-2050; 2051-2080; 2071-
2100)

Compute Statistical Properties Compute Statistical Properties Compute Statistical Properties

(Markov Chain transitional (Markov Chain transitional (Markov Chain transitional
probabilities, Gamma probabilities, Gamma probabilities, Gamma
distribution parameters) distribution parameters distribution parameters

Compute Change Factors of the

parameters
Generate Synthetic Time Series.
Compare with observed series
data
Compute Statistical Properties for
Future Periods (2021-2050; 2051-
2080; 2071-2100)

Generate Future Time Series using

the Rainfall Generator Algorithm

Fit GEV Distribution and calculate

the parameters for daily scale 32
 Advantages and disadvantages of WG
• Weather Generators are stochastic in nature
hence theoretically resembles more to the actual
rainfall formation process which is also random
• Can produce the extreme rainfall better.
• The key disadvantages relate to the low skill at
reproducing inter-annual to decadal climate
variability
• It can not give the exact sequence of rainfall but
only gives statistics of the rainfall.
 Comparison of downscaling
methods
• We know theoretical strengths and weaknesses of
downscaling methods, where systematic inter-comparisons
have been made, e.g. STARDEX, no single best downscaling
method is identifiable

– temperature can be downscaled with more skill than precipitation

– winter climate can be downscaled with more skill than summer due to
stronger relationships with large-scale circulation
– wetter climates can be downscaled with more skill than drier climates

• Direct comparison of skill of different methods difficult due to

the range of climate statistics assessed in the literature, the
large range of predictors used, and the different ways of
assessing model performance
Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology
Climate Change Projections Topography, Land-
(precipitation, temperature, use Patterns; soil
radiation, humidity) characteristics;

Downscaling

Hydrologic Model

Possible Future Hydrologic

Scenarios on Basin Scale
(Streamflow, Evapotranspiration, Soil
Moisture, Infiltration, Groundwater
Recharge etc.)
 Overview of a Climate Change Study
Development of an
WGEN type Rainfall
Generator to Simulate
IDF Relationships

Observed Daily Rainfall Projections of Performance

Data Projections of Future Daily IDF IDF Relationships with 26 Evaluation of
Relationship By the Developed GCMs and 4 RCP the Models
Evidence of Rainfall Generator And Monthly Scenarios: Climate Model /Scenarios
GCM outputs:
Observed Climate Delta Change Method Uncertainty
Precipitation Flux
Change
Three Types
of Ensemble
Observed Hourly and Disaggregation Model using Scale- Averaging
Sub-Hourly Rainfall Invariance Theory
Relationship between Data
Rainfall and other
Climate Parameters
Multimodel
/Scenario Weighted
Generated Hourly and Sub-Hourly
Mean Projections of
PDF
IDF Relationships
Urbanization Effect on
Bangalore Rainfall
Analysis of Difference
of Results due to Rainfall Frequency
Downscaling Analysis
Diurnal Rainfall Methodology
Analysis

Trends of Extreme
Rainfall

Rainfall Frequency Drainage Design by

Analysis and SWMM Software
Observed IDF

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