In-Depth ASEAN 2015

Presented by
Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D.
February 26, 2015
About Author
Positions held:
Executive Advisor, McKansys (Thailand)
Partner, Deloitte (Thailand and Southeast Asia)
Country Director, Frost & Sullivan (Thailand)
Delivery Head, Wipro Technologies
Senior Consultant, True Corporation
Product Manager, British Telecom

Academic works:
Guest Lecturer, Mahidol University College of Management (International MBA)
P/T Lecturer, Assumption Univeristy, Faculty of Science and Technology

Publication:
“Development of Telecommunications Infrastructure and Policy in Thailand: A Case Study
in Political Economic View of Telecommunications” (2010, Lambert Publishing House)
“Strategy Cookbook” (2013, McKansys ‘s Copyrighted Handbook)

Education:
Master’s and Ph.D., majoring in Telecommunications , Temple University (USA) 1997-2001
Agenda

Understanding AEC

Opportunities in ASEAN Market

AEC Readiness Preparation

What will happen after AEC?
No custom
Establishing
Integration of barriers
ASEAN Trade 0% import
logistics and
Repositary & export
transportation
(แหล่งเก็บร ักษา tax
systems
ข ้อมูลการค ้า
อาเซียน)

ASEAN will become a single market and production hub

Integration of
Regional hub capital
Free
of production ASEAN markets
movement of
and sourcing investors are
labors in 8
MRA free to invest
categories in service
sector (70%)
Opportunity for Thailand
 Lao
• Long-term risk from 1) corruption 2) relying on
Hydropower 3) poverty and ethnic gaps Vietnam
• Agriculture accounts for 27.98% of GDP and • Start 2013, inflation stabilized, real GDP growth recognized
Country Highlights employing 85% of the population • Biggest sectors are food and beverage (many export to
• Besides trading and consumer business as the Cambodia and Lao) and also textiles (2.2 illion workers)
second largest GDP contributor, garment is • High growth in ICT & electronics, followed by automotive
heavily promoted
Phillipines
Myanmar
• Electronics sector used to dominate
• Lowest BMI’s Business Envionroment Rating in ASEAN,
($21 billion value) but in 2016 BPO is
second lowest in Asia after N. Korea
• Prone to economic mismanagement due to leapfrogging expected to exceed at $26 billion.
(like Vietnam). No proper protocol to control is in place. • World’s largest BPO center
• Basic infrastructure, i.e. ICT and utilities are still limited • Biggest export of education
and not stable.
• Gas and mineral are highest exported goods (56% of total)
professionals
• Initiated excitement from awarding offshore exploration
licenses in oil & gas and building 3 major seaports with
support from Japan, China, Thailand Cambodia
• Big benefit to tourism sector, from 1million tourists in 2012
to 3 million in 2015. • The next Vietnam, driven by agri, 38% GDP
• Biggest manufacturing is garment, 16% GDP and
Indonesia 45% of manufacturing workers
• Manufacturing sector has been the largest contributor, • Construction sector growth at 30% per annum
followed by argriculture and consumer businesses • Tourists rise to hit 5 million in 2015, almost 20%
• In 2013, Indonesia hits the highest growth record in the growth for the past 5 years.
tourism industry. It contributed 8.4 percent to the • High short-term political risk, until CPP reform
economy. Malaysia
• Big income gap, need strong population control
Singapore
• Electronics and electrical - more than half
• 72% of GDP in service sector, i.e. financial, ICT
of industrial exports
• Regional hub of MNCs, leading AEC initiatives
• Biggest palm oil exporter, second largest 6
producer in ASEAN (about 6% of GDP) • Remaining industrial sector is high-tech
CLMV trade-off between politicalrisks and economic growth

• CLMV is emerged as major “new export destination” for Thailand.

• Growth especially noted in Myanmar, Lao, and Cambodia (Average 7-7.5% GDP growth accordingly).
• Consumer goods, especially commodity products (rubber, refined oil, chemicals and materials) are increasingly exported with
support from removal of tariff from AEC and more development of transport links.

7
ASEAN Growth Accelerators
• Strong growth in consumption in almost all sectors, especially in emerging SEA countries, i.e. Indonesia and Vietnam.
• Promising opportunity in consumer business and imported goods
• Licensing and more investments in infrastructure driving economic growth

Foreign
Investment

More
Rise of Middle
Imported
Class
Goods
ASEAN Growth
Accelerators

Young
Urbanization
Workers

8
AEC Readiness
Preparation
 ้
ขันตอนการตรวจสุ ขภาพธุรกิ3 จ (AEC
pillars CHECK-UP STEPS)
of dianogsis

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3

3-Pillar Business AEC-ready
AEC Disruptors Environment Organization
Assessment Diagnosis Alignment
Step 1

การวิเคราะห ์ความผันผวน 3(D ISRUPTORS

pillars of dianogsis ) จาก AEC
3 pilliars of analysis

• ลดภาษีเหลือร ้อยละ 0 ในปี 2553

เปิ ดเสรีการค ้าสินค ้า
• ยกเว ้น CLMV ปี 2558

• เปิ ดเสรีบริการเร่งร ัด 4 สาขา ได ้แก่

เปิ ดเสรีการค ้าบริการ ICT (e-ASEAN), สุขภาพ, ท่องทียว, ่ โลจิสติกส ์ Industry Factors

่
เคลือนย ้ายแรงงานฝี มือ • ลงนาม MRA วิชาชีพ 8 สาขา ได ้แก่ วิศวกร พยาบาล
อย่างเสรี สถาปนิ ก นักสารวจ แพทย ์ ทันตแพทย ์ นักบัญชี มัคคุRisk
เทศน์ Opportunity Readiness

่
เปิ ดเสรีเคลือนย ้าย ่
• เชือมโยงตลาดทุน และพัฒนาตลาดพันธบัตร
เงินทุน พร ้อมมาตรการเปิ ดเสรีบญ
ั ชีทุน

• ส่งเสริมและคุมครองการลงทุ
้ นระหว่างประเทศในอาเซียน
เปิ ดเสรีการลงทุน ่
ด ้วยหลักการ National Treatment เพือสนั บสนุ น
วิเคราะห ์สภาพแวดล้อมธุรกิจ BUSINESS ENVIORONMENT
Step 2

DIANOGSIS
3 pillars of dianogsis
High

Blue Ocean Red Ocean

รุก 100% รุกร ับ 50:50

Opportunity Readiness
Strike Zone

Monitor Guarding

รอจังหวะ ร ับ 100%
Low High

Risk
Step 2
่
ความพร ้อม คือ จุดเปลียนสู ่ความสาเร็จ
Step 3
พัฒนาแผนธุรกิจให้รองร ับ AEC (AEC-READY
ORGANIZATION)
Step 3
COMMON ORGANIZATION ROADBLOCKS
 A ORGANIZATION WITH
StepLIGNING
3
AEC ROADMAP
The new quality management approach

Sales/Marketing

Customer
Support

Product R&D
Sales/Marketing

PR/CSR IT

HR
Operation

VM
 A ORGANIZATION WITH
StepLIGNING
3
AEC ROADMAP
 Brainstroming Exercise

How does your industry impact from AEC disruptors?

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www.facebook.com/aecgeek

Email: monsinee.kee@gmail.com