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 The parameter (or parameters) indexes the family

of densities. For each family of densities that is


presented, the values that the parameter can
assume will be specified.
-If X is uniformly distributed on the set {1,2,3,...,N} then the following
formulas apply.

P(x) = 1/N P(x)- probability

ɛ(X)= N+1 / 2 E(X)- expected value


Var(X)= N2 - 1 / 12 Var(X)- variance
 P(X)
Let X be the random variable denoting what number is thrown.
P(X = 1) = 1/6
P(X = 2) = 1/6
.
.
P(X=N) = 1/6
 Therefore, We have the probability of 1/6 for each outcome

 For expected value


 6+1 /2 = 3.5

 Variance
 62 - 1 / 12 = 35/12 = 2.9167

 Moment
1 e1t+e2t+e3t+e4t+e5t+e6t
 (e1t+e2t+e3t+e4t+e5t+e6t) = 6
6
Bernoulli and Binomial
Distribution
 TheBernoulli distribution is a model for an experiment that
has only two possible outcomes.

 Usually the outcome which is mapped by the random variable


into the value 1 is named as a success; other is called as a
failure. The probability distribution is given by P(1) = p, P(0)
or q =1 - p where, p is the only parameter of the distribution
usually referred to as the probability of success.
Example using Bernoulli distribution:
 Alex throw a die, find the probability of getting 5 in a single throw of a
die.

 Sol’n :
In a single throw of a dice, the outcome "5" is called a success
and any other outcome is called a failure, then the successive throws of a
dice will contain Bernoulli trials.
 The probability of success = 1/6
 The probability of failure = 5/6

Mean and variance


1
Mean= E(X) = p = 6
1 1
Var(x)= (1- 6) = 5/36 or 0.14
6
Std deviation = √0.14 = 0.37
1 t et +4.98
Moment = 6
e + 0.83 = 6
Binomial Distribution. A binomial random variable is the number of successes x in n
repeated trials of a binomial experiment.
 Suppose we flip a coin two times and count the number of
heads, what is t he probability that heads will occur ?
Hence, the probability of a head
on Flip 1 and a head on Flip 2 is
 Sol’n: the product of P(H) and P(H),
Outcome First Flip Second which is 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4. The
Flip same calculation applies to the
1 Heads Heads probability of a head on Flip 1
and a tail on Flip 2. Each is 1/2 x
1/2 = 1/4.
2 Heads Tails
The four possible outcomes can
3 Tails Heads be classified in terms of the
number of heads that come up.
4 Tails Tails The number could be two
(Outcome 1), one (Outcomes 2
and 3) or 0 (Outcome 4).
Probabilities of getting 0,
1, or 2 heads
Number of Probability
Heads
0 1/4

1 1/2

2 1/4

THE FORMULA FOR BINOMIAL PROBABILITIES


The binomial distribution consists of the probabilities of each of the
possible numbers of successes on N trials for independent events that
each have a probability of π (the Greek letter pi) of occurring. For the
coin flip example, N = 2 and π = 0.5.
 where P(x) is the probability of x successes out of N trials, N is the
number of trials, and π is the probability of success on a given trial.
Applying this to the coin flip example.

If you flip a coin twice, what is the probability of getting one or


more heads? Since the probability of getting exactly one head is
0.50 and the probability of getting exactly two heads is 0.25, the
probability of getting one or more heads is 0.50 + 0.25 = 0.75.
 Mean : μ = Nπ or ɛ(x)= np
 Variance : σ2 = Nπ(1-π) or Var = npq
 Standard error: σ= √(Nπ(1-π))
 Moment= m(x) = (q+pet)n

Sol’n: μ = (2)(0.5)= 1
σ2 = (2)(0.5)(1-0.5)= 0.5
σ = √2(0.5)(1-0.5)= 0.7
m(x)= (0.5+0.5et)2 = 0.25+0.5et+0.25e2t
 Formula :

K
Mean = ɛ[X] = n ( )
𝑀
K M−K M−n
Var [X] = n ( )( )( )
𝑀 𝑀 𝑀−1
 Suppose we randomly select 5 cards without replacement from an
ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the probability of getting
exactly 2 red cards either hearts or diamonds?

 Solution: This is a hypergeometric experiment in which we know


the following:
 M = 52; since there are 52 cards in a deck.

 K= 26; since there are 26 red cards in a deck.

 n = 5; since we randomly select 5 cards from the deck.

 x = 2; since 2 of the cards we select are red.


 Applying the given formula:

Thus, the probability of getting 2 red cards is 0.32513


Mean = ɛ(X) = 5 (26/52)= 2.5
Var[X] = 5 (26/52) (52-26 / 52) (52-5/ 52-1)
= 1.52 or 1.5

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