NATURAL DISASTERS AND COPING STRATEGIES

OF THE POOR IN THE SUNDARBAN DELTA OF INDIA

Dr. Santadas Ghosh

Associate Professor in Economics
Visva-Bharati, Santiniketan (India)
&
Research Associate
South Asian Network for Development and
Environmental Economics (SANDEE)
The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee
the source, originality, accuracy, completeness or reliability of any statement, information, data, finding, interpretation, advice,
opinion, or view presented, nor does it make any representation concerning the same.
 Contributions of the study

•Estimating the incidence of poverty in a specific

ecological area

• Analyzing household’s observed coping

behaviour after a disaster-related livelihood loss
(CC threats)
 Sundarban:
Location

• 48 forested islands
• 54 populated islands
• 1.5 million people on
islands (estimated)
 Features of Populated Islands

• Not a typical ‘coastal’ population

• Bordering a strictly guarded Reserve Forest
• Surrounded by deltaic rivers (open access): saline water
• Remote, no electricity, no power-driven industry
• Recent settlements, smaller proportion of landless HH
• Limited livelihood options
Livelihood
 Poverty Estimates
Data source: Primary survey covering 618 households from
31 villages over 2 administrative blocks

Survey Estimates & Comparison

Rural India: 2004-2005 Sundarban Islands: 2010

Poverty Line % of Poverty Line % of

(Rs.) population (Rs.) population
below below

National 356.3 28.3 576.7 21.4

$ 1.25 (PPP adjusted) 585 41.6 882.7 40.3

$ 2 (PPP adjusted) 936 75.6 1412.3 66

 Climate Change Threats

• Long term: Sea Level Rise (SLR)

• Short term: predicted increase in the frequency of

cyclones and super-cyclones
Cyclone Aila: Broken
May, 2009 Embankments

Saline water on
Lost agriculture
agricultural fields
Effect on the mangrove forest and ecology: NIL

Effects on Livelihood: Major observations

• Loss of agriculture and related labour jobs

• Increase in the number of daily labourers

• Substantial increase in number of migrant workers

• Migration of the whole family rarely taken place

• Forest and river exploitation shows marginal decline

 Effect on livelihood across two groups of villages
Villages which Villages which
reported total reported partial
loss in agriculture loss in
agriculture
No. of villages 13 18

Average number of days of saline water intrusion 24 7

% of households reporting no agriculture after Aila 100 21

% change in the number of households earning -27 -3

from agricultural labour

% change in the number of households earning 13 2

from daily labour

% change in the number of households earning 58 13

from migrant labour
 Who Migrates?
Landholding classes (Land unit = hectare)

0 0.02- 0.21- 0.41- More than 1

-0.01 0.20 0.40 1.00 ha

% of households (study 25 36 20 15 4
estimate)

% of households having 44 34 35 33 36
migrant labourer (after
Aila)

Average household size 4.5 5.0 5.3 5.5 6.4

 Long term coping strategy (Govt.)

• Announced plan to build bigger and stronger embankments

• Announced plan for land acquisition along river fronts for
this purpose

Observations:
• No work has yet been started at ground level: One and half
year after the cyclone

• The project estimate involves huge costs

 Concluding Observations
• CC threats are real even in the short run
• Threat is mainly to the livelihood of the poor (not to ecosystem)
• The most efficient coping strategy of the poor: migration
• Announced coping strategy (govt): in situ livelihood
preservation

Policy Implication
Help the poor to migrate/relocate (from some of these islands)

• Initiate dialog with stakeholders

• Undertake cost/benefit analysis for such relocation for each of these islands