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Submitted to :
Manisha (4063)
Introduction
Network analysis is one of the important tools for project
management.
Deterministic
estimates
Probabilistic
estimates
i j
Event Event
start finish
Types of Events
Merge event
Burst event
Activity Predecessor
activity C
A none 2 4 F
A
B none
D
C A 1
6
D A
B
3 G
E B 5
E
F C
G D&E
Draw the network diagram for the following
Activity Predecessor
activity
A none
B A
C A
D B
E C
F D ,E
3 D
B
A F
5 6
1 2
C
4 E
Critical path
Those activities which contribute directly to the overall duration of
the project constitute critical activities, the critical activities form a
chain running through the network which is called critical path.
A(1-2) 4
B(1-3) 3
C(2-4) 2
D(2-5) 7
E(3-5) 6
F(4-6) 4
G(5-6) 2
CRITICAL PATH : 1-2-5-6 or
A-D-G
acti te Es Ef Lf LS He Tail Tot Fre Ind
vity = = ad sla al e ep
Es Lf - sla ck flo flo en
+te te ck at at de
nt
flo
at
1-2 4 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
1-3 3 0 3 5 2 2 0 2 0 0
2-4 2 4 6 9 7 3 0 3 0 0
2-5 7 4 11 11 4 0 0 0 0 0
3-5 6 3 9 11 5 0 2 2 2 0
4-6 4 6 10 13 9 0 3 3 3 0
5-6 2 11 13 13 11 0 0 0 0 0
PERT
PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that
involve many inter-related tasks. it improves
planning process because:
te = to + 4tm + tp
6
1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
1. Draw the network &find expected project
completion time.
2. What is the probability that it would be
completed in 41 days.
Variance of critical path
Activity To Tp variance
1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total=
10.88
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
Z = DUE DATE – EXPECTED DATE OF
COMPLETION
S.D. OF CRITICAL PATH
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated
value i.e. 1.51 is .4345
So probability is .5 + .4345 = .9345 i.e. 93.45% that
project will be completed on 41 day.
QUESTION:
Activity predecessor time
estimates (weeks)
activity Precedin to tm tp
g activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
Find the expected duration and
variance of each activity.
What is the expected project
length?
Calculate the variance
&standard deviation of the
project length.
activit to Tm tp te varianc
e
y
A 2 3 10 4 16/9
B 2 3 4 3 1/9
C 1 2 3 2 1/9
D 4 6 14 7 25/9
E 4 5 12 6 16/9
F 3 4 5 4 1/9
G 1 2 7 2 1
Various paths &expected project
length
A-C-F = 4+2+4 = 10
A-D-G = 4+7+2 = 13 CRITICAL
PATH
B-E-G = 3+6+2 = 11
Thus critical path is A-D-G with an
expected length of 13 days. Hence
the expected project length is 13
days.