Agenda

1 Background and Objective

2 Week 1 of project

3 Proposed Approach

4 Challenges

5 Detailed Project Plan

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Background and Objective
 Casino is one of the more profitable business of the cruise lines. However, there is no systematic
and automated way of forecasting the casino spends in any voyage. This leads to sub optimal
decisions that potentially leads in lost opportunity for Casino business

 Casino business aims to understand the key drivers and dynamics of casino penetration and
spend with a scientific & data driven approach

 Additionally, attempt is made towards making the business planning process more robust using
the right blend of statistically proven drivers and business judgment

 Finally, aim is to built a user friendly planning tool that takes gives management scientifically
driven predictions and levers to take right action at right time

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Factors Influencing Customer Casino Penetration and Casino Spend

Factors Sample Variables

% Germans

Customer
profile % Honeymooners

Port of call(s)
Itinerary
details No. of days at sea
What impacts
Casino Spend
Christmas time period
Seasonality
Summer vacation

% of land based
Marketing acquisitions customers
Levers
VIP sailings

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Proposed 3 Step Approach
Exploring Data in multiple aspects & in multitude of dimensions:
Exploratory Data
Analysis (EDA) &
 Itinerary Details  Casino Specification  Other Services (Spa)
Driver Study
 Marketing Effectiveness  Guest and Family  Ship Specific

Casino Penetration and Spend specific predication capabilities at a

Drivers
Driven Model voyage level with the help of two type of models:
i. Casino Penetration Models
ii. Casino Spend Models

Taking the planning process to a next level with:

Planning
Tool i. Scientifically driven prediction of penetration and spend
ii. Using past data and business expectations
iii. In the form of a user friendly tool across portfolios

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 Data Sources
 3 years of past data would be required for analysis from the following possible sources – Casino Data, CRM Data
Warehouse and Marketing Data across the 5 Brands in question – Carnival, Princess, P & O AU, Costa, Holland
America
Casino Data
 Casino spend data
– Slots spend, table spend
– Coin in and Coin out
– Total casino visits
– Voyage currency
 Customer profile
– Loyalty membership, loyalty
points earned
– Other demographics
CRM Data Warehouse Marketing Data
 Customer details  Acquisition Efforts
– Gender, age, martial status, city etc – Redemption of certificates
 House hold details from land based casino
partnerships
– No. of people, income etc
 On Board Details  Retention Efforts
– Number of game tables, number of slot – Number of customers utilizing
machines etc. direct mail offers
 Booking and sail – VIP sailings
– Price paid, number of travelers
– Type of cabin
– Itinerary details
– Port of embarkation/ D-embarkation
– Number of days at sea
– Ship details
– Age
– Casino employees
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Step 1 – Exploratory analysis
 Carnival Casino team to get back around the key areas/ question they would like to be probed
and which will stress more in the EDA by 11th July 2014

Are free cabin offers

better than price
How does time on promotions
sea impact spend ?
Do additional slot
machines lead to similar
rise in spending

Exploratory Data
Are guest of same Analysis &
age group spend
similarly Driver Study
irrespective to
ethnicity Are customers coming
through land based casino
partners better?

Should groups with all “boys” Can off seasons be

need to given more incentives better managed

* Illustrative Examples; Subject to relevant variables being available

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Step 2 – Driver Models
Carnival Guests Casino Guests

Penetration Model

Casino Guests Casino Spenders

Spend Model

i. Models will be build at a Voyage level

ii. These models will utilize the drivers and variables studied in EDA and weighing each
of the drivers in sync with past behaviour

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Step 2 – Driver Model Details (Contd.)

Data Dependent Independent

Type Model Technique
Required Variable(s) Variable (s)

• Itinerary • Number of sea

• Ship/ itinerary details days
details • Type of ship • Overall guest
Voyage Level - Percentage of • Ship brand characteristics • Regression(Hierar
• Brand level
Casino Separate people • Seasonality (demographic chical Bayesian
transactional
estimates at spending in • Services profile) in the regression)
Penetration Brand/ type of
data
casino during • Onboard voyage • Fixed and random
• Data activity
ship level that Voyage effects model
warehouse • Sales data
data • Ports covered

• Itinerary • Number of sea

• Total Spend in details days
• Ship/ itinerary
Casino, • Type of ship • Overall guest
details • Regression
Voyage Level - • Casino spend/ • Ship brand characteristics
• Brand level (Hierarchical
Casino Separate day/ voyage, • Seasonality (demographic
transactional Bayesian
estimates at • Percentage • Services profile) in the
Spends Brand/ type of
data
casino spend • Onboard voyage
regression)
• Data activity • Fixed and random
ship level as overall
warehouse • Sales data effects model
voyage
data • Ports covered
revenue

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Step 3 - Planning Tool

1. The above shown tool (draft structure) will enable the user to achieve estimated penetration
and sales based on driver driven model;
2. The user will be able to provide input around key drivers and examine the forecast with the help
of a comprehensive MIS

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1 Background and Objective

2 Week 1 of project

3 Proposed Approach

4 Challenges

5 Detailed Project Plan

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Challenges

 Central to EDA and modelling is availability of data – both casino specific as well as brands
covering demographic, spend, solicitations, voyage and ship specific information.

 Second key piece is to synchronize and standardize the data at guest and voyage level across time
and across businesses. For example: Identifying the same guest across data casino and brands
data

 The structure of data and the process with which the information is captured under each variable
might differ across portfolios

 Brand / Portfolio level difference pertaining to the business itself. For example – different
currencies used by different businesses and exchange rate conversions may not reflect the true
cost differences for the guests

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1 Background and Objective

2 Week 1 of project

3 Proposed Approach

4 Challenges

5 Detailed Project Plan

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 Project Plan
Segmentation Activity 1st Month 2nd Month 3rd Month
Steps 07/07 07/14 07/21 07/28 08/04 08/11 08/18 08/25 08/31 09/07 09/14 09/21
Initial hypotheses & Final Sample
1
Plan
2 Data Setup
Data pulling, structuring and
3
Cleaning
4 Exploratory Data Analysis
Milestone 1
5 Casino Penetration modelling
Milestone 2
6 Casino Spend Modelling
Milestone 3
7 Optimization Tool

8 Workshops and Presentations

Plan Data Setup Data structuring and cleaning Exploratory Data Analysis

Milestone 3 Milestone 2
Milestone 1
Optimization Tool Penetration Modeling
Presentations Casino Spend Modeling

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