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ECONOMIC INSIGHTS

Connecting more cities at lower prices


Unique city-pairs and real transport costs
20000 3.50

18000 Unique city pairs


3.00
16000
Number of unique city-pairs

14000

US$/RTK in 2014US$
2.50
12000

10000 2.00

8000

Real cost of air transport for users 1.50


6000

4000
1.00
2000

0 0.50
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Source: ICAO, IATA


The global air transport industry:

Source: ATAG www.iata.org/economics 3


In Latin America & the Caribbean, air transport supports:
…5.2 million jobs & $167 billion of GDP

Source: ATAG www.iata.org/economics 4


Operating profits dip, but another healthy year forecast
US$bn
90 9%

80 8%
Operating profit (Left axis) Operating margin (Right axis)
70 7%

60 6%

50 5%

40 4%

30 3%

20 2%

10 1%

0 0%

-10 -1%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Source: ICAO, IATA www.iata.org/economics 5


Driven largely by N.America (again) plus Europe & Asia
Operating profit (US$ billion)
70

60
Africa L America Middle East

50
Asia Pacific Europe N America

40

30

20

10

-10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Source: ICAO, IATA www.iata.org/economics 6


Per passenger (net) profit shows wide regional variation
US$
20
18.15

16.32

15

10 9.10
8.67
7.70
6.94
6.03
4.96 5.31
5
2.87
2.15 1.78

-1.45 -1.50

-5
Nth America Latin America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Industry

Source: IATA www.iata.org/economics 7


Regional (net) profitability – North America
US$bn
25.0 12%

20.0 10%

15.0 8%

10.0 6%

5.0 4%

0.0 2%

-5.0 0%

-10.0 -2%

-15.0 Net profit (Left axis) Net profit margin (RHS) -4%

-20.0 -6%

-25.0 -8%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Source: IATA www.iata.org/economics 8


Regional (net) profitability – Latin America
US$bn
2.0 4%

1.5

1.0 2%

0.5

0.0 0%

-0.5

-1.0 -2%

-1.5

-2.0 Net profit (Left axis) Net profit margin (RHS) -4%

-2.5

-3.0 -6%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f

Source: IATA www.iata.org/economics 9


In the U.S., Airline Margins Are 1/3 the U.S. Average

Source: A4A 10
U.S. Pax Airline Profitability Substantially Below Starbucks / Apple / McDonalds

Source: A4A 11
Demand for air travel to double over the next 20 years
Global passengers (billion, O-D basis)
10

Constant policies scenario


9

A Pick-up in Protectionism
8

Policy stimulus and market liberalization


7 6.7bn

4
3.3bn

2
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics www.iata.org/economics 12


Expected growth varies widely across regions
GDP growth (% per year)
8
7.6

7
6.5 6.4

4
3.5
3.4
3.1
3
2.2 2.2
2.0
2 1.8

0
Euro area Emerg. Eur. CIS Emerg. Asia Lat.Am MENA SSA China India US

Source: IMF www.iata.org/economics


20-year passenger growth outlook (2016-36)
Europe
North America 550m
452m 2.3%
Middle East
2.3% 322m Asia Pacific
5.0% 2,066m
Latin America
Africa 4.6%
274m
421m
5.9%
4.2%

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics www.iata.org/economics 14


Top 10 air passenger markets 2016-36

Source: IATA/Tourism Economics www.iata.org/economics 15


THE GLOBAL AIRLINE LANDSCAPE
2000s COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
2017 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT
NEW ULTRA LOW COST CARRIER ENTRIES

LCC SHARE OF DEPARTING SEATS

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