The Agility Imperative: Agile C2 For Complex Endeavors: Dr. David S. Alberts Director, Research OASD/NII

The Agility Imperative:
Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors
presented to
Defense S&T Symposium

Preparing the military for the Unpredictable
April 2010
Dr. David S. Alberts

Director, Research OASD/NII
Questions to be Addressed
• What are the root causes for the lack of predictability?
• What are the implications for Command and Control?
• Is there a future for Command and Control?
2
The Agility Imperative - Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors April 2010
Roots of Unpredictability
The root causes of a lack of Predictability
• A lack of understanding
• Irreducible uncertainty
• A lack of information
3
Roots of Unpredictability
• A lack of Predictability can be a result of:

– A lack of understanding
– Irreducible uncertainty (stochastic properties)
– A lack of information
• Complexity
– Limits understanding
– Increases uncertainty
– Increases the need for information
Increased Complexity Increased Unpredictability
4
Sources of Mission Complexity
21st Century Missions are Complex Endeavors
Complexity of the Task and Environment
+
Complexity of ‘Self’
=
Complex Endeavor
5
Task and Environment
n ce Co
un
ss ista ter
n A Ter
ita ria Peace Keeping ror
ism
an
Hum
• The success of 21st Century Missions requires
a multi-dimensional effects space
- political, social, economic, military
• The complexity of the mission is a result of

the interactions between and among the
effects, particularly across dimensions, and n s
tio
Dis
the uncertainties associated with e r a
O p
ast a cascading effects chain. t y
er ili
Re t a b
lief S
6
Complexity of Self
• Self = A large number of heterogeneous,
independent entities that differ significantly with
respect to:
• Culture, values and norms;
• Laws, policies, rules, and regulations;
• Practices and processes;
• Levels of trust;
• Language;
• Information and communications capabilities;
• Approach to organization and management.
• The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature
of the interactions between and among the
participating entities and the dynamics of the
situation that affect entity willingness,
constraints, perceptions, and capabilities.
7
Questions to be Addressed
• What are the root causes for the lack of predictability ?
• What are the implications for Command and Control?
• Is there a future for Command and Control?
8
Implications for Command and Control
increases
Complex
Unpredictability
Endeavors
challenges basic challenges basic

assumptions re: assumptions re:
Command Control
C2
9
Challenges to Basic C2 Assumptions
Unpredictability
• The unexpected will occur with greater frequency

• The effective lives of plans will be shorter – they
may expire within the planning cycle.
• Critical information and expertise necessary to
understand the situation will not be available
• Traditional approaches to decision making under
uncertainty will be less applicable
10
Unpredictability
• The unexpected will occur with greater frequency

• The effective lives of plans will be shorter – they
may expire within the planning cycle.
understand the situation will not be available
• Traditional approaches to decision making under
uncertainty will be less applicable
The most appropriate response to Complexity

and the associated increases in uncertainty and risk is
Agility
11
increases
Complex
Unpredictability
Endeavors

Command Control
Agile
C2
12
Complex Endeavors
• There will not be a unified chain of command.
• Entities will each have their own intent.
• The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all
entities.
• There will be multiple planning processes.
understand the situation will be non-organic.
• Actions, to be effective, will require developing
synergies between and among entity actions.
There is a difference between Entity Command and Control
and Collective Command and Control
13
increases
Complex
Unpredictability
Endeavors

Command Agile Control
New Approaches
to C2
14
• What is Agility?
• Agility and the C2 Approach Space?
15
Essence of Agility:
Why do we need Agility
Success must be achieved / maintained in light of
• Dynamic environment
• Complexity and chaotic environment
• Unknown futures
• Unpredictable states
• Rapidly changing situations
• New, diverse circumstances
• Unexpected events
• Unfamiliar situations
• Changing tasks, purposes
• Loss, Damage, Threats
Success = effectiveness, efficiency, survivability 16

Essences of Agility:
What Needs to be Agile
The concept of agility can be applied to
• People
• C2 Approaches
• Organizations
• Processes
• Systems
• Architectures
• Policy
• Doctrine
• Tactics
• Acquisition
17
Agility
Agility is the ability to successfully cope

with changes in the environment (system)
e.g.
maintain acceptable level of
- degradation / loss of capability
- performance,
- change in objectives
- effectiveness,
- change in coalition (self)
- efficiency
- …….
requires
- Timely recognition
- Appropriate response
- Timely response
18
Essence of Agility:
Mechanisms
Being agile includes the employment of one or more of

the following inter-related mechanisms
• Adaptability • Requisite variety

• Flexibility • Innovativeness
• Responsiveness • Learning
• Survivability • Fault Tolerance
• Resilience • Re-configurability
• Robustness • Re-engineering
• Reflexive
19
Essence of Agility:
Measuring Agility
• Agility is not completely observable

– Agility (or a lack of ) can be observed only after the
fact (manifest)
– Agility is potential until it is manifest
• Thus, a measure of Agility must be able to measure both
potential and manifest Agility
• Indicants of Agility are also of interest.
– Indicants measure the properties of an entity that are
related to more or less agility.
– Indicants may be easier to observe / measure
20
Essence of Agility:
Requisite Agility
• Agility is not an unlimited good
• Improving Agility involves costs
• The amount of Agility is a function of the situation
21
• What is Agility?
• Agility and the C2 Approach Space?
22
Rethinking C2
The Mission Space and the C2 Approach Space

• Virtually all endeavors will be complex
• Situations will be dynamic
• The more complex and dynamic the situation, the greater
demands on C2
New,
• There Agile areApproaches
many ways to toaccomplish
Command the
andfunctions
Control
associated with Command and Control
• No one approach fits all missions or situations
• The most appropriate approach will be a function of the
endeavor
• Entities will need to be able to utilize more than one C2
approach
• The Collective needs to be able to adopt an appropriate C2
approach
• The approach to C2 needs to change with changing
23
circumstances
C2 Approach Space
rti o at on
n
ci ng io
Pa Am form uti
I n t r ib
s
of Dis
nt
pa
Patterns of Interaction
Among Entities
Allocation of Decision
Rights to the Collective
24
C2 Approach Space
rti o at on
n
ci ng io
Pa Am form uti
I n t r ib
s
of Dis
nt
pa
Among Entities
Traditional
Military
Organizations
25
C2 Approach Space
rti o at on
n
ci ng io
Pa Am form uti
I n t r ib
Edge Organizations
s
of Dis
nt
pa
Among Entities
Traditional
Military
Organizations
26
A False Choice
rti o a on
n
ci ng tio
Pa Am form uti
In trib
Edge Organizations
s
of Dis
nt
B
pa
?
Among Entities
It’s not about how

to get from
A A to B, but…
27
C2 Agility
rti o at on
n
ci ng io
Pa Am form uti
I n t r ib
s
of Dis
nt
pa
Agile C2 Involves
the ability to move
around the
Among Entities
C2 Approach Space
appropriately
28
The Real Choices
Approach to Endeavor Space

Focus and Convergence
What is your requisite level of Maturity?
29
C2 Agility
• C2 Agility is the ability to maintain effective C2 as a

function of changing circumstances and stresses
• Agility is an umbrella concept that includes:
– Responsiveness – Flexibility
– Robustness – Innovativeness
– Resilience – Adaptability
• Being able to recognize and transition to the appropriate

approach to C2 is an essential capability, but only one of
the ways that we can make C2 more agile
• NEC C2 is inherently more Agile than traditional
approaches
30
It’s all about Networks
• Complex Endeavors are now the business of DoD

• Complex Effects Space
– More than just military effects
– Interactions in effects space significant
– Lack of understanding of cross-domain cause-effects
Effects
– Inability to predict
Network
• Operating in a Network-Centric Environment
– Many v. Few
– Unfamiliar v. Familiar
• Complex “Self”
– “Self” is composed of a large number of heterogeneous entities Networked
– Different objectives, values, constraints Self
– No single entity in charge
– Entities have significantly different perceptions
31

The Agility Imperative: Agile C2 For Complex Endeavors: Dr. David S. Alberts Director, Research OASD/NII

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The Agility Imperative:

Agile C2 for Complex Endeavors

Defense S&T Symposium

Dr. David S. Alberts

• What are the root causes for the lack of predictability?

• What are the implications for Command and Control?

• Is there a future for Command and Control?

The root causes of a lack of Predictability

• A lack of Predictability can be a result of:

Increased Complexity Increased Unpredictability

21st Century Missions are Complex Endeavors

Complexity of the Task and Environment

• The complexity of the mission is a result of

• What are the root causes for the lack of predictability ?

• What are the implications for Command and Control?

• Is there a future for Command and Control?

challenges basic challenges basic

• The unexpected will occur with greater frequency

• The unexpected will occur with greater frequency

The most appropriate response to Complexity

challenges basic challenges basic

challenges basic challenges basic

• Agility and the C2 Approach Space?

Success must be achieved / maintained in light of

Success = effectiveness, efficiency, survivability 16

The concept of agility can be applied to

Agility is the ability to successfully cope

Being agile includes the employment of one or more of

• Adaptability • Requisite variety

• Agility is not completely observable

• Agility is not an unlimited good

• Improving Agility involves costs

• The amount of Agility is a function of the situation

• Agility and the C2 Approach Space?

The Mission Space and the C2 Approach Space

It’s not about how

Approach to Endeavor Space

What is your requisite level of Maturity?

• C2 Agility is the ability to maintain effective C2 as a

• Being able to recognize and transition to the appropriate

• Complex Endeavors are now the business of DoD

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