Macroeconomics Report

© 2013 Pearson
Why are some nations rich

and others poor?
© 2013 Pearson
25
Economic Growth
CHAPTER CHECKLIST
When you have completed your
study of this chapter, you will be able to
1 Define and calculate the economic growth rate, and
explain the implications of sustained growth.
2 Explain the sources of labor productivity growth.
3 Review the theories of economic growth.
4 Describe policies that speed economic growth.
© 2013 Pearson
25.1 THE BASICS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Economic growth is a sustained expansion of

production possibilities measured as the increase in real
GDP over a given period.
Calculating Growth Rates

Economic growth rate is the annual percentage
change of real GDP.
© 2013 Pearson
To calculate this growth rate, we use the formula:

Real GDP in Real GDP in
current year – previous year
Growth of
real GDP = x 100
Real GDP in previous year
For example, if real GDP in the current year is $8.4

trillion and if real GDP in the previous year was $8.0
trillion, then the growth rate of real GDP is
Growth of $8.4 trillion – $8.0 trillion

real GDP = x 100 = 5 percent.
$8.0 trillion
© 2013 Pearson
The standard of living depends on real GDP per person.
Real GDP per person is real GDP divided by the

population.
The contribution of real GDP growth to the change in

the standard of living depends on the growth rate of real
GDP per person.
© 2013 Pearson
We use the above formula to calculate this growth rate,

replacing real GDP with real GDP per person.
Suppose, for example, that in the current year, when
real GDP is $8.4 trillion, the population is 202 million.
Then real GDP per person is $8.4 trillion divided by 202
million, which equals $41,584.
And suppose that in the previous year, when real GDP
was $8.0 trillion, the population was 200 million.
Then real GDP per person in that year was $8.0 trillion
divided by 200 million, which equals $40,000.
© 2013 Pearson
Use these two values of real GDP per person in the

growth formula to calculate the growth rate of real GDP
per person. It is
Growth rate of real $41,584 – $40,000

= x 100 = 4 percent.
GDP per person $40,000
© 2013 Pearson
The growth rate of real GDP per person can also be

calculated by using the formula:
Growth of real
= Growth rate of – Growth rate of
GDP per person real GDP population
Growth of 202 million – 200 million x 100 = 1 percent.

population = 200 million
© 2013 Pearson
Growth of real
GDP per person = 5 percent – 1 percent = 4 percent.
This formula makes it clear that real GDP per person

grows only if real GDP grows faster than the
population grows.
If the growth rate of the population exceeds the growth
of real GDP, real GDP per person falls.
© 2013 Pearson
The Magic of Sustained Growth

Sustained growth of real GDP per person can transform
a poor society into a wealthy one. The reason is that
economic growth is like compound interest.
Rule of 70 is the number of years it takes for the level
of any variable to double, which is approximately 70
divided by the annual percentage growth rate of the
variable.
© 2013 Pearson
Table 25.1 Growth Rates
Growth rate Years for level

(% per year) to double Example
2 35 U.S. real GDP per person

7 10 China real GDP per person
© 2013 Pearson
25.2 LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
To understand what determines the growth rate of real

GDP, we must understand what determines the growth
rates of the factors of production and rate of increase in
their productivity.
Real GDP growth contributes to improving our standard
of living.
But our standard of living improves only if we produce
more goods and services with each hour of labor.
So our main concern is to understand what makes labor
more productive.
© 2013 Pearson
Labor Productivity
Labor productivity is the quantity of real GDP
produced by one hour of labor.
It is calculated by using the formula:
Real GDP
Labor productivity =
Aggregate hours
© 2013 Pearson
For example, if real GDP is $8,000 billion and

aggregate hours are 200 billion, then we can calculate
labor productivity as
$8,000 billion
Labor productivity = = $40 per hour
200 billion
© 2013 Pearson
When labor productivity grows, real GDP per person

grows, so the growth in labor productivity is the basis of
rising living standards.
The growth of labor productivity depends on two things:
• Saving and investment in physical capital
• Expansion of human capital and discovery of new
technologies
© 2013 Pearson
Saving and Investment in Physical Capital

Saving and investment in physical capital increase the
capital per worker and increase labor productivity.
But additional capital will not bring sustained economic
growth because the law of diminishing returns applies
to capital:
If the quantity of capital is small, an increase in capital
brings a large increase in production; and
If the quantity of capital is small, an increase in capital
brings a large increase in production.
© 2013 Pearson
Figure 25.1 illustrates the

relationship between
capital and productivity.
The curve PC is the
productivity curve.
With a small amount of
capital an increase in the
capital brings a large
increase in real GDP per
hour of labor.
© 2013 Pearson
With a large amount of

capital, an increase in
the capital brings a
small increase in real
GDP per hour of labor.
If capital per hour of labor
keeps increasing, labor
productivity increases
by ever smaller amounts
and eventually stops
rising.
© 2013 Pearson
Expansion of Human Capital and Discovery

of New Technologies
Human capital—the accumulated skill and knowledge of
people—comes from three sources:
• Education and training
• Job experience
• Health and diet
Expansion of human capital and the discovery of
new technologies has increased labor productivity.
© 2013 Pearson
The discovery of new technologies have made an even

greater contribution to economic growth than the growth
of physical capital and the expansion of human capital.
To reap the benefits of technological change, capital
must increase.
Some of the most powerful and far-reaching
technologies are embodied in human capital.
For example, language, writing, and mathematics.
But most technologies are embodied in physical capital.
© 2013 Pearson
Figure 25.2 illustrates the

effects of human capital and
technological change.
The curve PC0 is the
productivity curve in 1960.
$180 of capital per hour of
labor produced $25 of goods
and services—real GDP per
hour of labor.
© 2013 Pearson
The curve PC1 is the

productivity curve in 2010.
$180 of capital per hour of
labor produced $60 of goods
and services—real GDP per
hour of labor.
The expansion of human
capital and discovery of new
technologies shift the PC
curve upward and are not
subject to diminishing returns.
© 2013 Pearson
Figure 25.3 illustrates how

labor productivity grows.
In 1960, workers had $80 of
capital per hour of labor and
produced $20 of real GDP
per hour of labor.
1. When capital increased to
$180 per hour of labor in
2010, real GDP per hour of
labor increased to $25.
© 2013 Pearson
2. The expansion of human

capital and discovery of
new technologies shifted
the productivity curve
upward and …
increased real GDP per
hour of labor to $60.
© 2013 Pearson
Real GDP grows because labor becomes more productive
and because the quantity of labor increases.
Figure 25.4 summarizes the sources of real GDP growth.
Real GDP growth depends on quantity of labor growth
and on labor productivity growth.
© 2013 Pearson
Quantity of labor growth depends on

• Population growth
• The labor force participation rate
• Average hours per worker
© 2013 Pearson
Labor productivity growth depends on

• Physical capital growth
• Human capital growth
• Technological advances
© 2013 Pearson
25.3 ECONOMIC GROWTH THEORIES: OLD AND NEW
Old Growth Theory

Classical growth theory is the theory that the clash
between an exploding population and limited resources
will eventually bring economic growth to an end.
Malthusian theory is another name for classical
growth theory—named for Thomas Robert Malthus.
© 2013 Pearson
The Basic Idea

Advances in technology and the accumulation of capital
bring increased productivity and increased real GDP per
person.
Classical growth theory says that the increase in real
GDP per person will be temporary because prosperity
will induce a population explosion.
The population explosion will decrease real GDP per
person.
© 2013 Pearson
New Growth Theory

New growth theory
The theory that our unlimited wants will lead us to ever
greater productivity and perpetual economic growth.
According to new growth theory, real GDP per person
grows because of the choices people make in the
pursuit of profit.
© 2013 Pearson
Choices and Innovation

The new theory of economic growth emphasizes three
facts about market economies:
• Human capital grows because of choices.
• Discoveries result from choices.
• Discoveries bring profit, and competition destroys
profit.
© 2013 Pearson
Human Capital Expansion and Choices

People decide how long to remain in school, what to
study, and how hard to study.
Discoveries and Choices
The pace at which new discoveries are made—and at
which technology advances—is not determined by
chance.
The pace at which new discoveries are made depends
on how many people are looking for a new technology
and how intensively they are looking.
© 2013 Pearson
Discoveries and Profits

The forces of competition squeeze profits, so to
increase profit, people constantly seek either lower cost
methods of production or new and better products for
which people are willing to pay a higher price.
Two other facts play a key role in the new growth
theory:
• Many people can use discoveries at the same
time.
• Physical activities can be replicated.
© 2013 Pearson
Figure 25.5 illustrates

new growth theory in
terms of a perpetual
motion machine.
1. People want a
higher standard of
living and are
spurred by...
2. Profit incentives to
make the...
3. Innovations that
lead to...
© 2013 Pearson
4. New and better

techniques and
new and better
products, which
in turn lead to...
5. The birth of
new firms and
the death of
some old firms,
© 2013 Pearson
6. New and better

jobs, and...
7. More leisure
and more
consumption
goods and
services.
© 2013 Pearson
The result is...
8. A higher
standard of
living.
But people want a

yet higher
standard of living,
and the growth
process continues.
© 2013 Pearson
25.4 ACHIEVING FASTER GROWTH
Preconditions for Economic Growth

Economic freedom is the fundamental precondition for
creating the incentives that lead to economic growth.
Economic freedom is a condition in which people are
able to make personal choices, their private property is
protected, and they are free to buy and sell in markets.
© 2013 Pearson
Economic freedom requires the protection of private

property—the factors of production and goods that
people own.
Property rights are the social arrangements that
govern the protection of private property.
Economic freedom also requires free markets.
© 2013 Pearson
Policies to Achieve Faster Growth

To achieve faster economic growth, we must increase
• The growth rate of capital per hour of labor or
• The growth rate of human capital or
• The pace of technological advance.
© 2013 Pearson
The main actions that governments can take to achieve

these objectives are
• Create incentive mechanisms
• Encourage saving
• Encourage research and development
• Encourage international trade
• Improve the quality of education
© 2013 Pearson
Create Incentive Mechanisms

Economic growth occurs when the incentive to save,
invest, and innovate is strong enough. These incentives
exist only when private property is protected.
Encourage Saving
Saving finances investment, which brings capital
accumulation.
Tax incentives can encourage saving, increase the
growth of capital, and stimulate economic growth.
© 2013 Pearson
Encourage Research and Development

Everyone can use the fruits of basic research and
development efforts.
Because basic inventions can be copied, the inventor’s
profit is limited and so the market allocates too few
resources to this activity.
Governments can direct public funds toward financing
basic research, but it requires a mechanism for
allocating public funds to their highest-valued use.
© 2013 Pearson
Encourage International Trade

Free international trade stimulates economic growth by
extracting all the available gains from specialization and
trade.
Improve the Quality of Education
By funding basic education and by ensuring high
standards in skills such as language, mathematics, and
science, governments can contribute enormously to a
nation’s growth potential.
© 2013 Pearson
How Much Difference Can Policy Make?

A well-intentioned government cannot dial up a big
increase in the growth rate.
But it can pursue policies that will nudge the growth rate
upward.
And over time, the benefits from these policies will be
large.
© 2013 Pearson
Why Are Some Nations Rich and Others Poor?
Political stability, property rights protected by the rule of law,

and limited government intervention in markets:
Are key features of the economies that enjoy high incomes

and they are the features missing in those that remain poor.
Most of the rich nations have experienced sustained

economic growth over many decades.
Europe’s Big 4 economies (France, Germany, Italy, and the

United Kingdom) have been enjoying economic growth for
200 years.
The United States started to grow rapidly 150 years ago and
overtook Europe in the early 20th century.
© 2013 Pearson
In the past 50 years,

the gaps between these
countries haven’t
changed much.
In a transition from
Communism to a
market economy,
Central Europe is now
growing faster.
© 2013 Pearson
Economic growth in
Central and South
America and Africa has
been persistently slow.
The gap between the

United States and
these regions has
widened.
© 2013 Pearson
Real GDP per person

in East Asian
economies has
converged toward that
in the United States.
These economies are

like fast trains running
on the same track at
similar speeds with
roughly constant gaps.
© 2013 Pearson
Hong Kong and

Singapore are the lead
trains and run about
15 years in front of
Taiwan,
20 years in front of
South Korea, and
almost 40 years in front
of China.
© 2013 Pearson
Between 1960 and

2010,
Hong Kong and
Singapore transformed
themselves from poor
developing economies
to take their places
among the world’s
richest economies.
© 2013 Pearson

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© 2013 Pearson

Why are some nations rich

Economic growth is a sustained expansion of

Calculating Growth Rates

To calculate this growth rate, we use the formula:

For example, if real GDP in the current year is $8.4

Growth of $8.4 trillion – $8.0 trillion

The standard of living depends on real GDP per person.

Real GDP per person is real GDP divided by the

The contribution of real GDP growth to the change in

We use the above formula to calculate this growth rate,

Use these two values of real GDP per person in the

Growth rate of real $41,584 – $40,000

The growth rate of real GDP per person can also be

Growth of 202 million – 200 million x 100 = 1 percent.

This formula makes it clear that real GDP per person

The Magic of Sustained Growth

Table 25.1 Growth Rates

Growth rate Years for level

2 35 U.S. real GDP per person

To understand what determines the growth rate of real

For example, if real GDP is $8,000 billion and

When labor productivity grows, real GDP per person

Saving and Investment in Physical Capital

Figure 25.1 illustrates the

With a large amount of

Expansion of Human Capital and Discovery

The discovery of new technologies have made an even

Figure 25.2 illustrates the

The curve PC1 is the

Figure 25.3 illustrates how

2. The expansion of human

Quantity of labor growth depends on

Labor productivity growth depends on

Old Growth Theory

The Basic Idea

New Growth Theory

Choices and Innovation

Human Capital Expansion and Choices

Discoveries and Profits

Figure 25.5 illustrates

4. New and better

6. New and better

The result is...

But people want a

Preconditions for Economic Growth

Economic freedom requires the protection of private

Policies to Achieve Faster Growth

The main actions that governments can take to achieve

Create Incentive Mechanisms

Encourage Research and Development

Encourage International Trade

How Much Difference Can Policy Make?

Political stability, property rights protected by the rule of law,

Are key features of the economies that enjoy high incomes

Most of the rich nations have experienced sustained

Europe’s Big 4 economies (France, Germany, Italy, and the

In the past 50 years,

The gap between the

Real GDP per person

These economies are

Hong Kong and

Between 1960 and

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