Estimating Population Parameters

Estimation of Parameters
Inferential Statistics
Inferential statistics is concerned with
drawing conclusions and/or making
decisions concerning a population based
only on sample data.
Main functions of inferential
statistics:
1.estimate population
parameters
2.test statistical hypotheses
CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Inferential Statistics
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Parameter & Statistic

A parameter is a descriptive
measure that describes a
population.
A statistic is a descriptive
measure that describes a
sample.
Usually, parameters are denoted by
lower-case GREEK letters (e.g.  or
), while statistics use lower-case
ROMAN letter (e.g. x and s).
Estimation of Population Parameters
An estimator of a population
parameter is a random variable
that depends on sample
information whose value provides
an approximation to this unknown
parameter.
A specific value of that random
variable is called an estimate.

Properties of Good
Estimators
1.UNBIASED. The expected value or the
mean of the estimates obtained from samples
of a given size is equal to the parameter being
estimated.
2.CONSISTENT. As sample size increases, the
value of the estimator approaches the value
of the parameter being estimated.
3.RELATIVELY EFFICIENT. Of all the statistics
that can be used to estimate a parameter,
the relatively efficient estimator has the
smallest variance. CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

There are two types of
estimates:
1. Point estimate: It is a specific
numerical value used to
approximate a population
parameter.
2. Interval estimate: It is a range
of values used to approximate a
population parameter. It’s also
called a confidence interval.
Point Estimation
Point estimation
is the process of
finding a point
estimate from a
random sample of a
population to
approximate a
parameter value.
The statistic value
that approximates aCABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Point Estimation
The point
estimate is the
BEST GUESS or
the BEST
ESTIMATE of an
unknown
(fixed or
random)
population
Point Estimation
Sample
Population
Statistic
MEASURE Value
(POINT
(PARAMETER)
ESTIMATE)
Mean  x
Standard
deviation  s
Proportion p p̂
Point Estimation
Notes:
1. Don’t expect that the point
estimate is exactly equal to the
population parameter.
2. Any point estimate used should
be as close as possible to the
true parameter.
3. Sampling should be done at
random, using a sample size that
Point Estimation
The following are some
1 situations that use point
estimates:
a. (estimating a mean) A sample of 50
households is used to determine the
average number of children in a
household in a barangay.
b. (estimating a proportion) A sample of 50
households is used to determine the
percentage of households in a barangay
watching a particular teleserye.
Point Estimation
The SAMPLE MEAN x is used to
2 estimate the population mean .
The following are the lengths of seedlings in a
plant box. We want to estimate the mean length
of the seedlings.
(Exercise 2 of the textbook)

Point Estimation
Estimate the mean length using the
2 following:
a)average of the row averages
b)average of the column averages
c)using the average of the first row
d)using the average of the last two
columns
(Exercise 2 of the textbook)

Point Estimation
To determine the average monthly
3 income of factory workers of a CEPZ
company, ten workers were randomly
sampled. Their monthly incomes (in
thousand pesos) are shown in the table.
Calculate the point
Monthly Income
estimate for the Income
Monthly
Worker Worker
average monthly income.
(thousand pesos) (thousand pesos)
1 11.5 6 11.5
2 10 7 12
3 9.5 8 10.5
4 9 9 11.5
5 10 10 9
Point Estimation
Find the point estimate of the
4 proportion of private school
teachers who are LET passers in a
city given that 480 out of a sample
of 600 randomly selected teachers
passed the LET.

Point Estimation
Find the point estimate of the
5 proportion of the number of junior
high school students who owns at
least one cell phone given the
following sample: Number of
Number of students surveyed
Grade
students surveyed with at least one
cell phone
7 10 9
8 15 11
9 25 16
10 20 14
Interval Estimation
An interval estimate is a range of
values used to approximate a
population parameter. This estimate
may or may not contain the actual
value of the parameter being
An interval estimate has two
estimated.
components:
1.a range or interval of values
2. an associated level of confidence
Interval Estimation
Why use an interval
estimate instead?
• Using a point estimate, while
unbiased, poses a degree of
uncertainty. There is no way of
expressing the degree of accuracy
of a point estimate.
• An interval estimate provides
more information about a
Confidence Levels and Intervals

confidence n. a feeling or belief
that you can do something well or
succeed at something
(http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/confidence )

Confidence Levels
The confidence
level c of an
interval estimate
is the probability
that the
parameter is
contained in the
interval CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
Confidence Levels
The value of c is given
1-
by
where  represents a
level of significance,
which indicates the long-
run percentage of
confidence intervals
which would include the
parameter being
estimated.
The value of the level of
Confidence Levels
The significance of the level of
significance
The level of significance  represents
a probability of lack of confidence;
that is, the probability of NOT
capturing the value of a population
parameter in the interval estimate.
The confidence level c = 1 -  ,
meanwhile represents the probability
of confidence that the population
Confidence Levels
The significance of the level of
significance probability that
1-  lies in the
interval
estimate

probability that
 does NOT lie
in the interval
estimate
 z
Confidence Intervals
A confidence interval is a specific
interval estimate of a parameter
determined by using data obtained
from a sample and by using the
specific confidence level of the
estimate.
http://blog.minitab.com/blog/adventures-in-statistics/understanding-hypothesis-tests:-confidence-intervals-and-confidence-levels

Notes:
1. For a parameter , if P(a <  < b) = 1
-  , then the interval a <  < b is
called a 100(1 - )% confidence
interval of .
2. In repeated samples of the
population, the true value of the
parameter  would be contained in
100(1 - )% of intervals calculated
this way.
REGION OF CONFIDENCE
100(1 - )% of all intervals contain the value of 
 
2 1- 2
̂

̂ 's
Distribution of
Illustration:
A 95% confidence
interval of a population
mean  means that 95%
of the samples from the
same population will
produce the same
confidence intervals that
Also, this means that
contain the value of .
1 -  = 0.95
so  = 0.05 is the
level of significance. http://www.statistica.com.au/confidence_interval.html

Illustration:
a 95% confidence interval for the mean  in a normally-distributed

population
Determine the confidence level for
6 the following levels of significance:
Level of
Confidence
Significanc
Level
e
 = 0.10 c = 1 -  = 1 - 0.10 = 0.90 = 90%
 = 0.25 c = 1 -  = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75 = 75%
 = 0.36 c = 1 -  = 1 - 0.36 = 0.64 = 64%

Determine the levels of
7 significance for the following
confidence levels:
Confidence Level of
Level Significance
96%  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.96 = 0.04

87%  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.87 = 0.13
90%  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10

Important parts of a confidence
interval Width of
confidence interval
Margin of Error Margin of Error
Lower Upper
Confidenc Confidenc
Point e
e
Estimate Limit
Limit CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
General Formula for Confidence
Intervals
The general formula for all confidence
intervals is given by:
� Point � �
Reliability�
�Standard�
� ��
� �
Estimate� � Factor �
� � Error �
The value of the reliability factor
depends on the desired level of
confidence.
Intervals
https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat504/sites/onlinecourses.science.psu.edu.stat504/files/lesson01/simple_expres_CI.gif

Intervals
Usually, the general formula for a
confidence  ˆ �E
interval ̂
is written as where is the
estimate of the
In INEQUALITY FORM, the confidence
parameter  and E is the margin of error.
interval of a parameter  is given by
ˆ - E <  < ˆ + E
Confidence
Intervals
Population Population
Mean Proportion
 
Known Unknown
Confidence Intervals for
the Population Mean
for Known and Unknown Variances

the Population Mean
To construct an interval
estimate for the population
mean, we use
1.a point estimate for the
mean.
2.a margin of error.


the Population Mean
The confidence interval for the

population mean  is given by
x -E< < x +E
where E is the margin of error
dependent on a given
confidence level.

the Population Mean
In the confidence interval
x -E<< x +E
E = margin of error
x - E = lower confidence
x + E limit
= upper confidence
limit
2E = width of the confidence
interval CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

the Population Mean
Width of Confidence
Interval
Margin of Error Margin of Error
E E
x -E  x +E
Lower Population Upper
Confidence Mean Confidence
Limit Limit

the Population Mean
REGION OF CONFIDENCE
100(1 - )% of all intervals contain the value of the
population mean 

 1-
2 2
100 ( 1 -  ) %
X
x -E  x +E

the Population Mean
Suppose that a sample is taken from a
normally-distributed population. If the
1 sample mean is 10, the confidence
interval for the population mean  at a
margin of error of 2 is
10 - 2 <  < 10 + 2 or 8 <  < 12
From the confidence interval, we have:
Lower confidence limit: 8
Upper confidence limit: 12
Width of confidence interval: 2E = 4 or
12 – 8 = 4 CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

the Population Mean
Find the margin of error and the

2 width of the following
confidence
Confidence
intervals:
Width of Margin of
Interval Confidence Interval Error
2
3<<5 5-3= 2 E= =1
2
1.8
2.5 <  < 4.3 4.3 - 2.5 = 1.8 E= = 0.9
2
1.84
35.08 <  < 36.92 36.92 - 35.08 = 1.84 E= = 0.92
2

the Population Mean
In constructing an interval
estimate for the population
mean, we consider two cases:
CASE 1 – the standard deviation
 of the population is known
CASE 2 – the standard deviation
 of the population is not known


the Population Mean
CASE
The standard deviation  of the
1 population is known.
A confidence interval for a
population mean  with a known
standard deviation  is based on
the fact that the sample means
follow an approximately
normal distribution.
CASE
1 For the Population Mean

The Central Limit Theorem – A Throwback:
If random samples of size n are drawn from a
population with replacement, then as n
becomes larger, the sampling distribution
of the mean approaches the normal
distribution, regardless of the shape of
the mean
The population distribution
and standard . of the
deviation
distribution are, respectively,

X =  X =
n
CASE

Because of the Central Limit Theorem, we can
think of the confidence level c = 1 –  as the area
-z
under the standard normal curve between
2
two zCRITICAL
 VALUES and .
2
 
2 2
1-
-z 0 z
2 2
CASE

To get a 100(1 – )% confidence interval for a given
level of significance , we must include the
central (1 – ) of the probability of the
normal distribution, leaving a total area of  in
both tails, or /2 in each tail, of the normal
distribution.
 
2 1- 2
100 ( 1 -  ) %
X
x -E  x +E
CASE

Sampling Distribution of the Mean
 
2 1- 2
X
μx = μ
Intervals x1
extend from 100(1-)%
x -E
x2
of intervals
x3 constructed
to
contain μ;
x +E
M
xn-1 100()%
xn
do not.
Confidence
Intervals
CASE

Sampling Error
The difference between the point
estimate and the actual parameter
value is called the SAMPLING ERROR.
For the sampling distribution of
sample means, the sampling error is
equal to x -
CASE

Margin of Error
The margin of error E is the
maximum error of estimate given by
� �
E = z  X or E = z  � �
2 2
�n�
where  is the level of significance, 
is the population standard deviation,
and n is the sample size.
CASE

Steps in Constructing a Confidence Interval
for a Population Mean if the Standard
Deviation is Known
STEP 1 – Calculate the sample mean. This
is the point estimate for the population
mean .
STEP 2 – Find the z-score (critical value)
that corresponds to the
confidence level .
STEP x3-–ECalculate
<  < x + the
E margin of
error E.the result.
Interpret
STEP 4 – Construct the
CASE

Common Confidence Levels and the
Corresponding
Confidence Level of z Values
Value of z-Value
Confidence Coefficient Significance 
Level
c=1–  z
2 2
80% 0.80 0.20 0.10 1.28

90% 0.90 0.10 0.05 1.645
95% 0.95 0.05 0.025 1.96
98% 0.98 0.02 0.01 2.33
99% 0.99 0.01 0.005 2.575
99.8% 0.998 0.002 0.001 3.08
99.9% 0.999 0.001 0.0005 3.27
CASE

A normally distributed
3 population has standard
deviation 1.5. A sample of
size 36 is obtained from
the population with
sample mean 4. Find the
margin of error for a 99%
confidence interval for the
CASE

Solution
3 Given: x = 4,  = 1.5, n = 36, c = 0.99

Value of :  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.99 = 0.01
Value of z: z  = z0.005 = 2.575
2
Value of E:
� � �1.5 �
E = z  � �= ( 2.575 ) � ��0.64
2
�n� � 36 �

Mean and Variance of Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
Check your
understanding
Compute the
margin of error for
the estimation of
the population
mean  for a 90%
confidence with a
sample of size 400
CASE

A normally distributed
4 population has standard
deviation 2. A sample of size
25 is obtained from the
population with sample mean
10. Construct a confidence
interval for the mean  of the
population using
a.90% confidence
CASE

a. Solution
Given: x = 10,  = 2, n = 25, c = 0.90
4 Value of :  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10
Value of z: z  = z0.05 = 1.645
2
� � �2 �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= ( 1.645 ) � �= 0.66
�n� � 25 �
Confidence limits: x - E = 10 - 0.66 = 9.34
x + E = 10 + 0.66 = 10.66
Confidence interval:9.34 <  < 10.66
CASE

What does our answer mea
4 9.34 <  < 10.66
We are 90%
confident that the
true population
mean  lies
between 9.34 and
CASE

b. Solution
Given: x = 10,  = 2, n = 25, c = 0.95
4 Value of :  = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05
Value of z: z  = z0.025 = 1.96
2
� � �2 �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= ( 1.96 ) � �= 0.78
�n� � 25 �
Confidence limits: x - E = 10 - 0.78 = 9.22
x + E = 10 + 0.78 = 10.78
Confidence interval:9.22 <  < 10.78
CASE

What does our answer mea
4 9.22 <  < 10.78
We are 95%
confident that the
true population
mean  lies
between 9.22 and
CASE

To determine the average
5 amount of purchase of its
customers, a convenience
store samples 150 of its
customers. The average
purchase of the group is P
125. If the store knew that
the standard deviation of all
purchases is P 50, what is the
CASE

Solution
5 Given:
x = 125,  = 50, n = 150, c = 0.95
Value of :  = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05
Value of z: z  = z0.025 = 1.96
2
� � � 50 �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= ( 1.96 ) � �= 8.00
�n� � 150 �

CASE

Solution
Confidence limits:
5 x - E = 125 - 8 = 117
x + E = 125 + 8 = 133
Confidence interval: 117 <  < 133
Conclusion:
We are 95% confident that the
actual average purchase is between
P 117 and
CASE

A study of 400 kindergarten
6 pupils showed that they spend on

average 5,000 hours watching TV.
The standard deviation of the
population is 900.
a.Find the 95% confidence level
of the mean TV time for all
pupils.
b.If a parent claimed that his
children watched 4,000 hours of
CASE

a. Solution
6
Given:
x = 5000,  = 900, n = 400, c = 0.95
Value of :  = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05
Value of z: z  = z0.025 = 1.96
2
� � �900 �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= ( 1.96 ) � �= 88.2
�n� � 400 �

CASE

a. Solution
(continued)
Confidence limits:
6 x - E = 5000 - 88.2 = 4,911.8
x + E = 5,000 + 88.2 = 5,088.2
Confidence interval: 4,911.8 <  < 5,088.2
Conclusion:
We are 95% confident that the actual
average TV time is between 4,911.8
and 5,088.2 hours.
CASE

b.
Question: Is the claim
6 of the parent valid?
Answer: NO, the claim of the
parent is NOT valid because
the average is NOT in the
confidence interval.
CASE

In a nutshell:
Steps in Finding the Confidence Interval for

Given: x = _____ ,  = _____ , n = _____ , c = _____
Value of :  = 1 - c = _____
Value of z: z  = _____
2 Confidence interval:
� �
Value of E: E = z 2 � �= _____ <  < _____
n
� �
Confidence limits: x - E = _____
x + E = _____
CASE

In a nutshell:
Steps in Finding the Confidence Interval for

Conclusion:
We are _____%
confident that the
true mean / average
_____ is between
_____ and _____. CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation
CASE

Sample Size Determination
The MINIMUM sample size n needed to
estimate the population mean  is
2
�z 2  �
n=� �
�E �
� �
where  is the level of significance,  is the
population standard deviation and E is the
margin of error.
CASE

Sample Size Determination
Why compute the
Since sample size?
the confidence interval widens
as the confidence level increases, the
precision of the interval estimate
decreases. One way to increase the
precision without changing c is to
increase the sample size. The larger
CASE
Determine the minimum

7 sample size needed to
estimate the population
mean  with 95%
confidence using a
margin of error of 4. It is
known that the
CASE

Solution:
7 Given: c = 0.95, E = 4,  = 8
Note:
Value of :  = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05 ROUND UP
your answer
Value of z: z  = z0.025 = 1.96
2
2
( 1.96 ) ( 8 ) �
2
Minimum z 
� 2 � �
sample size:
n = � �= �
�E � � 4 �= 15.37 �16
� � �
CASE
If the variance of a
8 national accounting
examination is 900, how
large a sample is needed
to estimate the true
mean score within 5
points with 99%
CASE

Solution:
8 Given: c = 0.99, E = 5,  = 900 = 30

Value of :  = 1 - 0.99 = 0.01
Value of z: z  = z0.005 = 2.575
2
2
( 2.575 ) ( 30 ) �
2
Minimum �z 2  � �
sample size: n = � �= � �
�E � � 5 �
� �
= 240 exams
Mean and Variance of Sampling Distributions of Sample Means
Check your
understanding
Ehljie wants to conduct
study on the average
a
number of hours a Grade

11 student spends in
studying Statistics and
Probability in a school
week with 98% confidence
and a margin of error of 2
hours. What sample size
should Ehljie use for her

Estimating Population Parameters

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Estimation of Parameters

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

Parameter & Statistic

Estimation of Population Parameters

Estimation of Population Parameters

Estimation of Population Parameters

(Exercise 2 of the textbook)

(Exercise 2 of the textbook)

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

Confidence Levels and Intervals

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

a 95% confidence interval for the mean  in a normally-distributed

 = 0.25 c = 1 -  = 1 - 0.25 = 0.75 = 75%

 = 0.36 c = 1 -  = 1 - 0.36 = 0.64 = 64%

96%  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.96 = 0.04

90%  = 1 - c = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10

Margin of Error Margin of Error

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

Confidence Intervals for

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

Confidence Intervals for

The confidence interval for the

Confidence Intervals for

Confidence Intervals for

Confidence Intervals for

Confidence Intervals for

Confidence Intervals for

Find the margin of error and the

Confidence Intervals for

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

Confidence Intervals for

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

80% 0.80 0.20 0.10 1.28

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

3 Given: x = 4,  = 1.5, n = 36, c = 0.99

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

6 pupils showed that they spend on

1 For the Population Mean

CABT Statistics & Probability – Grade 11 Lecture Presentation

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean

1 For the Population Mean