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Figure 2.5
Types of Forecasts
Economic forecasts
Address business cycle – inflation rate, money
supply, housing stats, etc.
Technological forecasts
Predict rate of technological progress
Impacts development of new products
Demand forecasts
Predict sales of existing product
Strategic Importance of
Forecasting
Human Resources – Hiring, training, laying off
workers
Capacity – Capacity shortages can result in
undependable delivery, loss of customers,
loss of market share
Supply-Chain Management – Good supplier
relations and price advance
Seven Steps in Forecasting
Determine the use of the forecast
Select the items to be forecasted
Determine the time horizon of the forecast
Select the forecasting model(s)
Gather the data
Make the forecast
Validate and implement results
The Realities!
until consensus is
reached
3 types of Staff
(Administering survey)
participants
Decision makers
Staff
Respondents
Respondents
(People who can make
valuable judgments)
Consumer Market Survey
Trend Cyclical
Seasonal Random
Components of Demand
Trend
component
Seasonal peaks
Demand for product or service
Actual
demand
Average demand
over four years
Random
variation
| | | |
1 2 3 4
Year
Trend Component
Persistent, overall upward or
downward pattern
Changes due to population,
technology, age, etc.
Typically several years duration
Seasonal Component
Regular pattern of up and down
fluctuations
Due to weather, customs, etc.
Occurs within a single year
Number of
Period Length Seasons
Week Day 7
Month Week 4-4.5
Month Day 28-31
Year Quarter 4
Year Month 12
Year Week 52
Seasonality in financial assets
2. January effect
0 5 10 15 20
Random Component
Erratic, unsystematic, ‘residual’
fluctuations
Due to random variation or unforeseen
events
Short duration and
nonrepeating
M T W T F
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
1. Naive approach
2. Moving averages
Time-Series
3. Exponential Models
smoothing
4. Trend projection
5. Linear regression Associative
Model
Overview of Quantitative
Approaches
Naive Approach
Assumes demand in next period is the
same as demand in most recent period
e.g., If May sales were 48, then June sales
will be 48
Sometimes cost effective and efficient
Moving Average Method
MA is a series of arithmetic means
Used if little or no trend
Used often for smoothing
Provides overall impression of data over
time
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 (10 + 12 + 13)/3 = 11 2/3
May 19 (12 + 13 + 16)/3 = 13 2/3
June 23 (13 + 16 + 19)/3 = 16
July 26 (16 + 19 + 23)/3 = 19 1/3
Graph of Moving Average
Moving Average
Forecast
30 –
28 –
Actual Sales
26 –
24 –
22 –
Shed Sales
20 –
18 –
16 –
14 –
12 –
10 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Weighted Moving Average
January 10
February 12
March 13
April 16 [(3 x 13) + (2 x 12) + (10)]/6 = 121/6
May 19 [(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (12)]/6 = 141/3
June 23 [(3 x 19) + (2 x 16) + (13)]/6 = 17
July 26 [(3 x 23) + (2 x 19) + (16)]/6 = 201/2
Potential Problems With
Moving Average
Increasing ‘n’ smooths the forecast but
makes it less sensitive to changes
Do not forecast trends well
Require extensive historical data
Moving Average And
Weighted Moving Average
Weighted
30 – moving
average
25 –
Sales demand
20 – Actual
sales
15 –
Moving
10 – average
5 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Figure 4.2
Exponential Smoothing
Form of weighted moving average
Weights decline exponentially
Most recent data weighted most
Requires smoothing constant ()
Ranges from 0 to 1
Subjectively chosen
Involves little record keeping of past data
Exponential Smoothing
Ft = Ft – 1 + (At – 1 - Ft – 1)
where Ft = new forecast
Ft – 1 = previous forecast
= smoothing (or weighting)
constant (0 1)
Exponential Smoothing Example
Weight Assigned to
Most 2nd Most 3rd Most 4th Most 5th Most
Recent Recent Recent Recent Recent
Smoothing Period Period Period Period Period
Constant () (1 - ) (1 - )2 (1 - )3 (1 - )4
Actual = .5
demand
200 –
Demand
175 –
= .1
150 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Quarter
Choosing
The objective is to obtain the most
accurate forecast no matter the technique
n
100 ∑ |actuali - forecasti|/actuali
MAPE = i=1
n
Comparison of Forecast Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1 180 175 5 175 5
2 168 176 8 178 10
3 159 175 16 173 14
4 175 173 2 166 9
5 190 173 17 170 20
6 205 175 30 180 25
7 180 178 2 193 13
8 182 178 4 186 4
84 100
Comparison of Forecast Error
∑ |deviations|
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MADActual
= Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonage n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For =180
.10 175 5 175 5
2 168 = 84/8176
= 10.50 8 178 10
3 159 175 16 173 14
4 For =175
.50 173 2 166 9
5 190 173 17 170 20
6 205 = 100/8
175= 12.50 30 180 25
7 180 178 2 193 13
8 182 178 4 186 4
84 100
Comparison of Forecast Error
∑ (forecast errors)2
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
MSE = Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonage
n
with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For =180
.10 175 5 175 5
2 = 1,558/8176
168 = 194.75 8 178 10
3 159 175 16 173 14
4 For =175
.50 173 2 166 9
5 190 173 17 170 20
6 = 1,612/8175
205 = 201.50 30 180 25
7 180 178 2 193 13
8 182 178 4 186 4
84 100
MAD 10.50 12.50
Comparison
n
of Forecast Error
100 ∑ |deviationi|/actuali
MAPE = Actual i = Rounded
1 Absolute Rounded Absolute
Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonage with n for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1
For 180
= .10 175 5 175 5
2 168 = 45.62/8
176 = 5.70%
8 178 10
3 159 175 16 173 14
4 For 175
= .50 173 2 166 9
5 190 173 17 170 20
6 205 = 54.8/8
175 = 6.85%30 180 25
7 180 178 2 193 13
8 182 178 4 186 4
84 100
MAD 10.50 12.50
MSE 194.75 201.50
Comparison of Forecast Error
Rounded Absolute Rounded Absolute
Actual Forecast Deviation Forecast Deviation
Tonnage with for with for
Quarter Unloaded = .10 = .10 = .50 = .50
1 180 175 5 175 5
2 168 176 8 178 10
3 159 175 16 173 14
4 175 173 2 166 9
5 190 173 17 170 20
6 205 175 30 180 25
7 180 178 2 193 13
8 182 178 4 186 4
84 100
MAD 10.50 12.50
MSE 194.75 201.50
MAPE 5.70% 6.85%
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment
When a trend is present, exponential smoothing
must be modified
Ft = (At - 1) + (1 - )(Ft - 1 + Tt - 1)
Tt = b(Ft - Ft - 1) + (1 - b)Tt - 1
Step 1: Compute Ft
Step 2: Compute Tt
Step 3: Calculate the forecast FITt = Ft + Tt
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24
6 21
7 31
8 28
9 36
10
Table 4.1
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 1: Forecast for Month 2
6 21
F2 = A1 + (1 - )(F1 + T1)
7 31
8 28 F2 = (.2)(12) + (1 - .2)(11 + 2)
9 36 = 2.4 + 10.4 = 12.8 units
10
Table 4.1
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 2: Trend for Month 2
6 21
T2 = b(F2 - F1) + (1 - b)T1
7 31
8 28 T2 = (.4)(12.8 - 11) + (1 - .4)(2)
9 36 = .72 + 1.2 = 1.92 units
10
Table 4.1
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92
3 20
4 19
5 24 Step 3: Calculate FIT for Month 2
6 21
FIT2 = F 2 + T1
7 31
FIT2 = 12.8 + 1.92
8 28
9 36 = 14.72 units
10
Table 4.1
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment Example
Forecast
Actual Smoothed Smoothed Including
Month(t) Demand (At) Forecast, Ft Trend, Tt Trend, FITt
1 12 11 2 13.00
2 17 12.80 1.92 14.72
3 20 15.18 2.10 17.28
4 19 17.82 2.32 20.14
5 24 19.91 2.23 22.14
6 21 22.51 2.38 24.89
7 31 24.11 2.07 26.18
8 28 27.14 2.45 29.59
9 36 29.28 2.32 31.60
10 32.48 2.68 35.16
Table 4.1
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Adjustment Example
35 –
25 –
Product demand
20 –
15 –
5 –
0 – | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Figure 4.3
Time (month)
Trend Projections
Fitting a trend line to historical data points to
project into the medium-to-long-range
Linear trends can be found using the least squares
technique
^
y = a + bx
where^y = computed value of the variable to be predicted
(dependent variable)
a = y-axis intercept
b = slope of the regression line
x = the independent variable
Least Squares Method
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation3
Deviation4
Deviation1
Deviation2
Trend line, y =^ a + bx
Deviation5 Deviation6
Deviation3
Least squares method minimizes the sum
of the squared errors (deviations)
Deviation4
Deviation1
Deviation2
Trend line, y =^ a + bx
^
y = a + bx
Sxy - nxy
b=
Sx2 - nx2
a = y - bx
Least Squares Example
Time Electrical Power
Year Period (x) Demand x2 xy
1999 1 74 1 74
2000 2 79 4 158
2001 3 80 9 240
2002 4 90 16 360
2003 5 105 25 525
2004 6 142 36 852
2005 7 122 49 854
∑x = 28 ∑y = 692 ∑x2 = 140 ∑xy = 3,063
x=4 y = 98.86
120 –
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
60 –
50 –
| | | | | | | | |
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Seasonal Variations In Data
The multiplicative seasonal model can modify
trend data to accommodate seasonal variations in
demand
1. Find average historical demand for each season
2. Compute the average demand over all seasons
3. Compute a seasonal index for each season
4. Estimate next year’s total demand
5. Divide this estimate of total demand by the number of seasons, then
multiply it by the seasonal index for that season
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2003 2004 2005 2003-2005 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 82 85 94
Apr 90 95 115 100 94
May 113 125 131 123 94
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2003 2004 2005 2003-2005 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94
Mar 80 93 82
average 85 monthly demand
2003-2005 94
Seasonal index
Apr 90 = 95 115 average monthly
100 demand94
May 113 125 131 123 94
= 90/94 = .957
Jun 110 115 120 115 94
Jul 100 102 113 105 94
Aug 88 102 110 100 94
Sept 85 90 95 90 94
Oct 77 78 85 80 94
Nov 75 72 83 80 94
Dec 82 78 80 80 94
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2003 2004 2005 2003-2005 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 85 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90 95 115 100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 115 94 1.223
Jul 100 102 113 105 94 1.117
Aug 88 102 110 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90 95 90 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
Seasonal Index Example
Demand Average Average Seasonal
Month 2003 2004 2005 2003-2005 Monthly Index
Jan 80 85 105 90 94 0.957
Feb 70 85 Forecast
85 for 2006 80 94 0.851
Mar 80 93 82 85 94 0.904
Apr 90Expected
95 annual
115demand = 1,200
100 94 1.064
May 113 125 131 123 94 1.309
Jun 110 115 120 1,200 115 94 1.223
Jan 12 x .957 = 96
Jul 100 102 113 105 94 1.117
Aug 88 102 110 1,200 100 94 1.064
Sept 85 90
Feb 95 12 90 = 85
x .851 94 0.957
Oct 77 78 85 80 94 0.851
Nov 75 72 83 80 94 0.851
Dec 82 78 80 80 94 0.851
Seasonal Index Example
2006 Forecast
140 – 2005 Demand
130 – 2004 Demand
2003 Demand
120 –
Demand
110 –
100 –
90 –
80 –
70 –
| | | | | | | | | | | |
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Time
Associative Forecasting
Used when changes in one or more independent
variables can be used to predict the changes in the
dependent variable
^
y = a + bx
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
Associative Forecasting Example
Sales, y Payroll, x x2 xy
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.0 3 9 9.0
2.5 4 16 10.0
2.0 2 4 4.0
2.0 1 1 2.0
3.5 7 49 24.5
∑y = 15.0 ∑x = 18 ∑x2 = 80 ∑xy = 51.5
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
Standard Error of the Estimate
A forecast is just a point estimate of a future
value
This point is 4.0 –
actually the 3.25
mean of a 3.0 –
Sales
probability 2.0 –
distribution
1.0 –
| | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
Figure 4.9
Standard Error of the Estimate
∑(y - yc)2
Sy,x =
n-2
2.0 –
The standard error of the
estimate is a measure of the
1.0 –
accuracy of predictions made
with a regression line. | | | | | | |
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Area payroll
Correlation
How strong is the linear relationship
between the variables?
Correlation does not necessarily imply
causality!
Coefficient of correlation, r, measures
degree of association
Values range from -1 to +1
Correlation Coefficient
nSxy - SxSy
r=
[nSx2 - (Sx)2][nSy2 - (Sy)2]
y y
Correlation Coefficient
n∑xy - ∑x∑y
r=
[n∑x 2 - (∑x)2][n∑y2 - (∑y)2]
(a) Perfect positive x (b) Positive x
correlation: correlation:
r = +1 0<r<1
y y
y^ = a + b1x1 + b2x2 …
Tracking RSFE
signal =
MAD
∑(actual demand in
period i -
forecast demand
Tracking in period i)
=
signal (∑|actual - forecast|/n)
Tracking Signal
Signal exceeding limit
Tracking signal
Upper control limit
+
0 MADs Acceptable
range
–
Lower control limit
Time
Tracking Signal Example
Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
Qtr Demand Demand Error RSFE Error Error MAD
1 90 100 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95 100 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 100 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100 110 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125 110 +15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140 110 +30 +35 30 85 14.2
Tracking Signal Example
Tracking Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Signal
Forecast Forecast Forecast
Qtr Demand(RSFE/MAD)
Demand Error RSFE Error Error MAD
1 90 -10/10100
= -1 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95 -15/7.5
100
= -2 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 0/10100=0 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100 -10/10110
= -1 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125 +5/11 110
= +0.5 +15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140+35/14.2
110
= +2.5 +30 +35 30 85 14.2
The variation of the tracking signal between -2.0 and +2.5 is within
acceptable limits
Adaptive Forecasting
It’s possible to use the computer to
continually monitor forecast error and adjust
the values of the and b coefficients used in
exponential smoothing to continually
minimize forecast error
This technique is called adaptive smoothing
Focus Forecasting
Developed at American Hardware Supply, focus
forecasting is based on two principles:
1. Sophisticated forecasting models are not always better than simple
models
2. There is no single techniques that should be used for all products
or services
This approach uses historical data to test multiple forecasting models for
individual items
The forecasting model with the lowest error is then used to forecast the next
demand
Forecasting in the Service Sector
15% –
10% –
5% –