Probability

and
Counting Rules
REFERENCE:

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 Introduction
 Sample Spaces and Probability
 Addition Rules for Probability
 Multiplication Rules & Conditional Probability
 Counting Rules
 Probability and Counting Rules
 Sample Spaces and Probability

Probability can be defined as the chance of an

event occurring
A probability experiment is a chance process that
leads to well-defined results called outcomes.
 An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
 A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment. The symbol (
S ) is used for the sample space .
 Some Sample Spaces
Sample Space
Experiment

Toss a coin S={Head , Tail }

Roll a dice

Answer a true/false question S={True, False}

Toss two coins S={HH, HT, TH, TT}

Example : Rolling Dice

Example : Gender of Children

Find the sample space for the gender of the children

if a family has three children. Use B for boy and G
for girl.
Solution :

2n=23 = 8
S={BBB , BBG , BGB , BGG , GBB , GBG , GGB
,GGG}=8
A tree diagram is a device consisting of line segments
emanating from a starting point and also from the outcome
point .It is used to determine all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.

Example : Gender of Children

Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the

gender of three children in a family,
as in the previous example.
Solution :

B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G BGG
B GBB
B
G GBG
G
B GGB
G
G GGG
 An event consists of outcomes of a probability
Experiment
event

Simple event Compound event

is an event with is an event with containing
one outcome. more than one outcome.

For example : roll a die

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
A={6} B = Odd no. = { 1 , 3 , 5 }
Simple event Compound event
E = Even no. = { 2 , 4 , 6 }
6 Compound event
 Types of probability:

 Classical Probability

 Empirical Probability or Relative Frequency.

 Subjective Probability.
 Classical probability
 Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the
numerical probability that an event will happen and assumes
that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to
occur.

 Equally Likely Events are events that have the same probability
of occurring

nE # of desired outcomes

PE  
n  S  Total # of possible outcomes
Example: Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability that two of
the three children are girls.
Solution :
Step 1 : Sample Space:
S ={BBB ,BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB ,GBG ,GGB ,GGG}=8

Step 2 : k={BGG, GBG, GGB}=3

P(K)= = 3/8

The probability of having two of three children being girls

is 3/8.
 Probability Rules
There are four basic probability rules:

 First Rule: For any event E 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

 Second Rule: If an event E cannot occur , then P(E)=

0.

 Third Rule: If an event E is certain to occur , then P(S)

=1.

Fourth Rule: The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes

Example : Rolling a Die
When a single die is rolled , find the probability of getting a 9.
Solution :
S= {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 } , A={ø}
P(9) = = 0/6 = 0
Second Rule
Example :
When a single die is rolled ,what is the probability of getting a
number less than 7 ?
Solution :
S={1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6} , A ={1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6}
P(A)= = 6/6 = 1
Fourth Rule
The complement of an event E denoted by , is the set of
outcomes in the sample space that are not included in the
outcomes of event E.
Example :
Find the complements of each event.
Event ( E ) Complement of Event ( E )
Rolling a die and getting a 4 Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6
Getting February, March, April, May,
Selecting a month and getting a
August, September, October, November,
month that begins with a J
or December

Selecting a day of the week and Getting Sunday or Saturday

getting a weekday

Selecting a day of the week that Getting Sunday,Monday,Wednesday,

beings with the letter T Friday and Saturday

Rolling two dice and getting A sum of 2, 4, 6, 8,10 or 12

a sum that is odd no.
 Rule for Complementary Events

Example :
If the probability that a person lives in an industrialized
country of the world is , Find the probability that a person
does not live in an industrialized country.
P Not living in industrialized country 
= 1  P  living in industrialized country 
1 4
 1 
5 5
Example:
In a study, it was found that 23% of the people surveyed
said that vanilla was their favorite flavor of ice cream. If
a person is selected at random. Find the probability that
the person’s favorite of ice cream is not vanilla.

Solution:
P( not vanilla) = 1 – P(vanilla)
=1 – 0.23 = 0.77 = 77%
mpirical Probability- Relative Frequency
Empirical probability relies on actual experience to
determine the likelihood of outcomes.

f frequency of desired class

PE  
n Sum of all frequencies

Remark:
 or indicate the Union ( + ).[or =  = +]
 and indicate intersection ( × ). [and =  = × ]
Example :
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had type A
blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB blood. Set up a
frequency distribution and find the following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 f
P O 
B 5 n
21
AB 2 
50
O 21
Total 50
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
22 5
B 5 P  A or B  
50 50
AB 2 27

O 21 50
Total 50
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22 P  neither A nor O 
B 5 5 2
 
AB 2 50 50
7
O 21 
50
Total 50
d. A person does not have type AB blood.

Type Frequency
A 22 P  not AB
B 5  1  P  AB
AB 2
2 48 24
O 21  1  
50 50 25
Total 50
 Subjective probability
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an
educated guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting outcomes of

sporting events

A sportswriter may say that there is a 70% probability that the Pirates
will win the pennant next year.
A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a
30% chance the patient will need an operation.
A seismologist might say there is an 80% probability that an
earthquake will occur in a certain area.
 Questions ???
1- a jellybean is chosen at random from a jar containing 5 black , 8
red and 7 yellow jellybeans . Find the probability that it is :
a) red
b) yellow
c) not black

2- If A ,B and C three events , the probability of the events A and B is

P(A)= 0.40 , P(B)= 0.37 .Find P(C) ?

3- A probability experiment is conducted. Which of these cannot be

considered a probability of an event?
a) 0.75
b) 0
c) 1
d) -0.25
4- Classify each statement as an example of Classical probability
, Empirical probability , Subjective probability :

a) The probability that a person will watch the 6 o’clock

evening news is 0.15.

Empirical probability

b) The probability of wining at a chuck – a – luck game is

Classical probability

c) The probability that a bus will be in an accident on a specific

run is about 6% .
Empirical probability
 Addition Rules for Probability
 Two events are Mutually Exclusive Events if
they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have
no outcomes in common)
P(A or B)=P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B)
Mutually Exclusive
P (S)
 This means that P(A∩B)= 0
B A
 Two events are Not Mutually Exclusive Events
then the probability of event A or B occurs denoted
by P(AUB), is given by

P(A or B)= P(AUB)= P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

Not mutually exclusive
P(A∩B)
 Where P(A∩B) is P (S)

the probability both A A

B
and B occur.
Example: Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which
are not, when a single die is rolled.

a. Getting an odd number and getting an even number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5
Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6
Mutually Exclusive

b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5
Not Mutually Exclusive
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5
Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3
Not Mutually Exclusive
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number
less than 4
Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6
Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3
Mutually Exclusive
Example : Selecting a Doughnut
A box contains 3 glazed doughnuts , 4 jelly doughnuts , and 5
chocolate doughnuts. If a person selects a doughnut at random
,find the probability that it is either a glazed doughnut or a
chocolate doughnut.
Solution : The events
P(glazed) + P(chocolate) = are mutually
exclusive
Example :

Solution :
Problem :
Example :
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians ;7 nurses
and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is selected ,find
the probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

Solution :
Which one of these events is not mutually exclusive?

A) Select a student in your university: The student is married, and

the student is a business major.

B) Select a ball from bag: It is a football, and it is a basket ball.

C) Roll a die: Get an even number, and get an odd number.

D) Select any course: It is an English course, and it is a Statistics

course.

e) Select a student in your university: The student is female, and the

student is a junior.
 For not mutually exclusive :
 P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A or B)

 For mutually exclusive :

 P(A and B) = 0
 The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional Probability

Multiplication Rules
 Two events A and B are independent events if the
fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring.

P(A and B)=P(A) . P(B) Independent Events

Example : Selecting a Colored Ball
An urn contains 3 red balls , 2blue balls and 5 white balls .A ball is
selected and its color noted .Then it is replaced .A second ball is selected
and its color noted . Find the probability of each of these.
Example :
Example: Male Color Blindness
Approximately 9% of men have a type of color blindness
that prevents them from distinguishing between red and
green . If 3 men are selected at random , find the probability
that all of them will have this type of red-green color
blindness.
Solution :
Let C denote red – green color blindness. Then

P(C and C and C) = P(C) . P(C) . P(C)

= (0.09)(0.09)(0.09)

= 0.000729
 When the outcome or occurrence of the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event
in such a way that the probability is changed ,the
events are said to be dependent events.

P(A and B)=P(A) . P(B|A) dependent Events

Example : University Crime
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there were 5
burglaries reported in 2003, 16 in 2004, and 32 in 2005. If a
researcher wishes to select at random two burglaries to
further investigate, find the probability that both will have
occurred in 2004.
Solution :
Dependent Events
P  C1 and C2   P  C1   P  C2 C1 

16 15 60
  
53 52 689
Example: Homeowner’s and Automobile Insurance
World Wide Insurance Company found that 53% of the residents
of a city had homeowner’s insurance (H) with the company .Of
these clients ,27% also had automobile insurance (A) with the
company .If a resident is selected at random ,find the probability
that the resident has both homeowner’s and automobile
insurance with World Wide Insurance Company .

Solution :
Example : Selecting Colored Balls
Box 1 contains 2 red balls and 1 blue ball . Box 2 contains 3
blue balls and 1 red ball . A coin is tossed . If it falls heads
up ,box1 is selected and a ball is drawn . If it falls tails up
,box 2 is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the probability of
selecting a red ball.

Box 1 Box 2
Solution :
Red

Box 1
Blue
Coin
Red

Box 2
Blue
 A red ball can be selected from either box1 or box2
P(red)=

•Box A contains 4 red balls and 2 white balls. Box B contains 2 red
balls, 2 white balls. A die is rolled first and if the outcome is an even
number a ball is chosen at random from Box A, and if the outcome is
an odd number a ball is randomly chosen from Box B.
Find the probability that a red ball is chosen?

2 7 6 2
12 24 12
9

Note: This PowerPoint is only a summary and your main source should be the book.
 *box1 contains 20% defective transistors,box2 contains 30%
defective transistors, and box3 contains 50% defective
transistors. A die is rolled. If the number that appears is
greater than 3, a transistor is selected from 1. If the
number is less than 3, a transistor is selected from 2. If the
number is 3, a transistor is selected from box3 . Find the
probability of selecting a defective transistor.
a) 0.028
b) 1
c) 0.283
d) 0.03
* A die is rolled. What is the probability that the number
rolled is greater than 2 and even number?
1/3
 Conditional Probability
 Conditional probability is the probability that
the second event B occurs given that the first event
A has occurred.
Example : Selecting Colored Chips
A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two
chips without replacement . If the probability of selecting a black
chip and a white chip is , and the probability of selecting a black
chip on the first draw is , find the probability of selecting the
white chip on the second draw ,given that the first chip selected was a
black chip.:
Solution
Let
B=selecting a black chip W=selecting a white chip

Hence , the probability of selecting a while chip on the second

draw given that the first chip selected was black is
Problem :
Example : Survey on Women In the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women in the armed
forces should be permitted to participate in combat. The results of the
survey are shown.

a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes (Y),

given that the respondent was a female (F).

8
P  F and Y 

P YF   P  F
 50 
100 8

4
50 25
100
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male
(M), given that the respondent answered no (N).

18
P  N and M 
 
18 3
P MN   100
 
P  N 60 60 10
100
 Doctor Physiotherapy Nurse Total
Male 4 6 9 19
Female 12 14 11 37
Total 16 20 20 56

•Find the probability that the employee is a doctor or a female.

•Find the probability that the employee is a physiotherapy.

•Find the probability that the employee is a nurse and a male.

•Find the probability that the employee is a doctor given that he

a male .
 Probabilities for (At
Example : Tossing CoinsLeast)
A coin is tossed 5 times . Find the probability of getting at least 1 tail.

P( at least 1 tail ) = 1 – P( all heads) = 1 – P(HHHHH)

=1-

= 1-
For Example: It has been found that 8% of all automobiles
on the road have defective brakes. If 8 automobiles are
stopped and checked by the police ,find the probability that
at least one will have defective brakes.

Solution :
P(at least one will have defective brakes) = 1 – p( all have not defective brakes)

= 1- (1- 0.08)8

= 1- (0.92)8

= 0.487
Example : Committee Selection
A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 News time
magazines on the counter. If two customers purchased a
magazine, find the probability that one of each magazine
was purchased.

Solution : News
TV . G 14
time
6
1 8
1 2
C1 8 C1 6  8 48
6
 
14 C 2 91 91