Probability of an Event

MATH142-3
Engineering Data Analysis
 Course Outcome
Compute the probability distribution of a random variable for
both discrete and continuous data.
 Learning Objectives
• At the end of the lesson, the•
students are expected to
• Define probability; and
• Relate counting techniques to•
real life situations.
• Compute for the probability of
an event;
Identify various ways of
solving for the probability of
an event;
Differentiate discrete and
continuous random variables;
and
• Classify variables according to
scales of measurement.
 Probability
• A tool to relate the descriptive statistics to Sample Space
inferential statistics • The set of all possible outcomes of a random
• Ratio of number of samples derived from the experiment
total population • Denoted as S
• Deals with counting elements
Examples:
Random Experiment • Consider the experiment of tossing a die.
• An experiment that can result in different• Sample space for the number appearing on the
outcomes, even though it is repeated in the top face:
same manner every time
S1 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Examples: • Sample space for the number appearing on the
top face whether it is even or odd:
- Measuring energy lost on a simple machine. S2 = {even, odd}
- Measuring the strength of steel.
 Sample Spaces
DISCRETE SAMPLE SPACE CONTINUOUS SAMPLE SPACE
• A sample space is discrete if it consists of a • A sample space is continuous if it
finite or countable infinite set of outcomes. contains an interval (either finite or
• Examples: infinite) of real numbers.
- Sample space for the number appearing on
the top face: Example:
• S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} - Sample space of the life in years (t) of a
certain component:
- Sample space for a thrown die until a five S = {t|t ≥ 0}
occurs:
• S = {F, NF, NNF, NNNF, …}
• where F = occurrence of 5 and N =
nonoccurrence of 5.
 Event
• Subset of the sample space of a random
experiment Complement of an event
• Consider the events E1 and E2. - Set of outcomes in the sample space that
Union of two events are not in the event
- Consists of all outcomes that are contained- The complement of the event E is E′ or EC.
in either of the two events - (E′)′ = E
- Denoted by E1 ∪ E2
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two events, denoted as E1 and E2 , such that
Intersection of two events E1 ∩ E2 = ∅
- Consists of all outcomes that are contained• Let M = {a, e, i, o, u} and N = {r, s, t}; then it
in both of the two events follows that M ∩ N = ∅. That is, M and N have
- Denoted by E1 ∩ E2 no elements in common and, therefore,
cannot occur simultaneously.
 Counting Techniques
• An important part of combinatorics Multiplication Rule
(study of arrangement of objects
which is part of discrete• If an operation can be performed in n1
ways, and if for each of these a second
mathematics) operation can be performed in n2 ways,
• Methods used for counts of the then the two operations can be
numbers of outcomes in the sample performed in n1n2 ways.
space and various events for• Example:
analyzing random experiments
• How many sample points are in the
• Used for more complicated problems sample space when a pair of dice is
and more difficult sample space or an thrown once?
event
• The first die can land in any one of n1 =
6 ways. For each of these 6 ways the
second die can also land in n2 = 6 ways.
Therefore, the pair of dice can land in
• n1n2 = (6)(6) = 36 possible ways.
 Generalized Multiplication Rule
• If an operation can be
performed in n1 ways, and if for
each of these a second
operation can be performed in
n2 ways, and for each of the
first and two a third operation
can be performed in n3 ways,
and so forth, then the sequence
of k operations can be
performed in n1n2…nk ways.
Example:
• Sam is going to assemble a
computer by himself. He has the
choice of ordering chips from two
brands, a hard drive from four,
memory from three and an
accessory bundle from five local
stores. How many different ways
can Sam order the parts?
Since n1 = 2, n2 = 4, n3 = 3, and n4
= 5, there are
n1 × n2 × n3 × n4 = 2×4×3×5
= 120 ways.
 Generalized Multiplication Rule
• 2-16/46 How many even four-digit•
numbers can be formed from the
digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit
can be used only once?
2-34/28 A wireless garage door
opener has a code determined by the
up or down setting of 10 switches.
How many outcomes are in the
sample space of possible codes?

• 2-30/51 In how many different ways• 2-35/28 An order for a computer can
can a true-false test consisting of 9 specify any one of five memory sizes,
questions can be answered? any one of three types of displays,
and any one of five sizes of hard
disks, and can either include or not
include a pen tablet? How many
different systems can be ordered?
 Guided Learning Activity 1
• 14/340 In a version of the computer• 15/340 Each user on a computer
language BASIC, the name of a system has a password, which is six
variable is a string of one or two to eight characters long, where each
alphanumeric characters, where character is an uppercase letter or a
uppercase and lowercase letters are digit. Each password must contain at
not distinguished. (An alphanumeric least one digit. How many possible
character is either one of the 26 passwords are there?
English letters or one of the 10
digits.) Moreover, a variable name
must begin with a letter and must be
different from the five strings of two
characters that are reserved for
programming use. How many
different variable names are there in
this version of BASIC?
 Counting Techniques
An ordered sequence of the elements • The number of permutations of
Example: subsets of r elements selected from a
set of n different elements is
• Consider the three letters a, b, and c.
The possible permutations are abc,
acb, bac, bca, cab, and cba. • 𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛 × 𝑛 − 1 × 𝑛 − 2 × ⋯ ×
𝑛−𝑟+1
The number of permutations of n
different elements is n! (read as n 𝑛!
• 𝑃𝑟𝑛 =
factorial) where 𝑛−𝑟 !
n! = n × (n ─ 1) × (n ─ 2) × … × 2 × 1
• Note: 𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑃 𝑛, 𝑟
Note: 0! = 1
 Permutation
2-10/24 Printed Circuit Board Circular Permutation
A printed circuit board has eight The number of permutations of n
different locations in which a distinct objects arranged in a circle
component can be placed. If four is (n − 1)!.
different components are to be
placed on the board, how many
different designs are possible? Example:
2-43/52 In how many ways can 5
different trees be planted in a
8!
P48 = 8P4 = P(8, 4) = 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 = circle?
4!
= 1680 different designs are possible
 Permutation of Similar Objects
PERMUTATION WITH REPETITION ORDERED PARTITION
The number of permutations of n = n1 + n2 The number of ways of partitioning a set of
+ … + nr objects of which n1 are of one n objects into r cells with n1 elements in the
type, n2 are of second type, … , and nr are offirst cell, n2 elements in the second, and so
𝑛! forth, is
an rth type is .
𝑛1 !𝑛2 !𝑛3 !…𝑛𝑟 !
𝑛 𝑛!
• 𝑛 ,𝑛 ,…,𝑛 =
1 2 𝑟 𝑛1 !𝑛2 !…𝑛𝑟 !
Example: where n1 + n2 + … + nr = n.
2-45/52 How many distinct permutations Example:
can be made from the letters of the word
2-20/49 In how many ways can 7 scientists
INFINITY?
be assigned to one triple and two double
hotel rooms?
 Combination
A combination is actually a partition of two cells, the
one cell containing the r objects selected and the
other cell containing the (n − r) objects that are left.
Examples:
The number of such combinations, denoted by 2-13/25 Printed Circuit Board Layout
A printed circuit board has eight different
𝑛 𝑛 locations in which a component can be placed. If
, is usually shortened to , five identical components are to be placed on
𝑟, 𝑛 − 𝑟 𝑟 the board, how many different designs are
possible?
since the number of elements in the second cell
must be (n − r). 8 8!
5
= 8C5 = C 8,5 = = 56
The number of combinations of n distinct objects 5! 8−5 !
taken r at a time is

𝑛 𝑛!
• = 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑟 = .
𝑟 𝑟! 𝑛−𝑟 !
 Guided Learning Activity
2.31/51 A witness to a hit-and-run accident told
the police that the license number contained
the letters RLH followed by 3 digits, the first of
which was a 5. If the witness cannot recall the
last 2 digits, but is certain that all 3 digits are
different, find the maximum number of
automobile registrations that the police may
have to check.
2.32/52 (a) In how many ways can 6 people be
lined up to get on a bus?
(b) If 3 specific persons, among 6, insist on
following each other, how many ways are
possible?
(c) If 2 specific persons, among 6, refuse to
follow each other, how many ways are
possible?
2.33/52 If a multiple-choice test consists of 5
questions each with 4 possible answers of
which only 1 is correct,
(a) In how many different ways can a student
check off one answer to each question?
(b) In how many ways can a student check off
one answer to each question and get all the
answers wrong?
2.36/52 (a) How many three-digit numbers
can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 6 if each digit can be used only once?
(b) How many of these are odd numbers?
(c) How many are greater than 330?
 Guided Learning Activity
2-46/52 In how many ways can 3 oaks, 4 pines, and 2-22/50 A young boy asks his mother to get five
2 maples be arranged along a property line if one game-boy cartridges from his collection of 10
does not distinguish among trees of the same kind? arcade and 5 sports games. How many ways are
there that his mother will get 3 arcade and 2
sports games, respectively?
2-12/26 A part is labeled by printing with four thick
lines, three medium lines, and two thin lines. If each
ordering of the nine lines represent a different label, 11/358 How many poker hands of five cards can
how many different labels can be generated by using be dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards? Also,
this scheme? how many ways are there to select 47 cards from
a standard deck of 52 cards?
2-14/25 Sampling without Replacement
12/360 How many ways are there to select five
A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains three players from a 10-member tennis team to make
defective parts and 47 nondefective parts. A sample a trip to a match at another school?
of six parts is selected from the 50 parts without
replacement. That is, each part can only be selected
once and the sample is a subset of the 50 parts.
How many different samples are there of size 6 that
contain exactly 2 defective parts?
 Guided Learning Activity
• 13/360 A group of 30 people have been trained as astronauts to go
on the first mission to Mars. How many ways are there to select a
crew of six people to go on this mission (assuming that all crew
members have the same job)?

• 15/360 Suppose that there are 9 faculty members in the

mathematics department and 11 in the computer science
department. How many ways are there to select a committee to
develop a discrete mathematics course at a school if the committee
is to consist of three faculty members from the mathematics
department and four from the computer science department?
 Probability
Classical Approach
If an event can occur in h different ways out of a
total number of n possible ways, all of which
are equally likely, then the probability of the
event is h/n.
Example:
Suppose we want to know the probability
that a head will turn up in a single toss of
coin. Since there are two equally likely ways
in which the coin can come up−namely,
heads and tails (assuming it does not roll
away or stand on its edge)−and of these two
ways a head can arise only one way, we
reason that the required probability is ½. In
arriving at this, we assume that the coin is
fair, i.e., not loaded in any way.
Frequency Approach
If after n repetitions of an experiment,
where n is very large, an event is observed
to occur in h of these, then the probability of
the event is h/n. This is also called the
empirical probability of the event.
Example:
If we toss a coin 1000 times and find that it
comes up heads 532 times, we estimate the
probability of a head coming up to be
532/1000 = 0.532.
 Probability of an Event
In any random experiment there is
always uncertainty as to whether a
particular event will or will not
occur. As a measure of the chance,
or probability, with which we can
expect the event to occur, it is
convenient to assign a number
between 0 and 1.
For a sure event, the probability is
100% or 1.
Impossible event has a probability
of 0.
If the probability is ¼, we would say
that there is a 25% chance it will
occur and a 75% chance that it will
not occur.
Equivalently, we can say that the
odds against its occurrence are 75%
to 25%, or 3 to 1.
P is called of probability function
P(A) is the probability of the event A
 Probability
Equally Likely Outcomes
Whenever a sample space (discrete) consists of
N possible outcomes that are equally likely, the
probability of each outcome is 1/N.
Probability of an Event
For a discrete sample space, the probability of
an event E, denoted as P(E), equals the sum of
the probabilities of the outcomes in E.
A number assigned to each member of a
collection of events from a random experiment
that satisfies the following properties:
If S is the sample space and E is any event in
a random experiment (Axioms of
Probability),
(1) P(S) = 1
(2) 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
(3) For two events E1 and E2, with E1 ∩ E2 = ∅
P(E1 ∪ E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)
If A′ is the complement of A, then
P(A′) = 1 − P(A)
 Probability
Examples:
2.51/59 A box contains 500 envelopes of
which 75 contain $100 in cash, 150 contain
$25, and 275 contain $10. An envelope may
be purchased for $25. What is the sample
space for the different amounts of money?
Assign probabilities to the sample points and
then find the probability that the first
envelope purchased contains less than $100.
Solution:
A=$100 (75) P(A)=75/500 = 0.15 P(AUB)=P(A)+P(B)
B=$25 (150) P(B)=150/500 = 0.3 =0.15+0.3
C=$10 (275) P(C)=275/500 = 0.055 = 0.45
S={A, B, C}
2.55/60 If each coded item in a catalog
begins with 3 distinct letters followed by 4
distinct nonzero digits, find the probability
of randomly selecting one of these coded
items with the first letter a vowel and the
last digit even.
2.57/60 If a letter is chosen at random from
the English alphabet, find the probability
that the letter
(a) is a vowel exclusive of y;
(b) is listed somewhere ahead of the letter j;
(c) is listed somewhere after the letter g.
 Probability
2.58/60 A pair of dice is tossed. Find the
probability of getting
(a) a total of 8;
(b) at most a total of 5.
2.59/60 In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards,
find the probability of holding
(a) 3 aces;
(b) 4 hearts and 1 club.
2.60/60 If 3 books are picked at random from a
shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems,
and a dictionary, what is the probability that
(a) the dictionary is selected?
(b) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are
selected?
4.17/194 Among five portable generators
produced by an assembly line in one day,
there are two defectives. If two generators
are selected for sale, find the probability
that both will be nondefective. (Assume the
two selected for sale are chosen so that
every possible sample of size two has the
same probability of being selected.)
4.21/194 A fleet of eight taxis is to be
randomly assigned to three airports, A, B,
and C, with two going to A, five to B, and
one to C.
(a) In how many ways can this be done?
(b) What is the probability that the specific
cab driven by Jones is assigned to
airport C?
 Guided Learning Activity

4.25/195 A firm is placing three orders for supplies 2-16/31 A random experiment can result in one
among five different distributors. Each order is of the outcomes {a, b, c, d} with probabilities 0.1,
randomly assigned to one of the distributors, and a 0.3, 0.5, and 0.1, respectively. Let A denote the
distributor can receive multiple orders. Find the event {a, b}, B the event {b, c, d}, and C the event
following probabilities. {d}.
(a) All orders go to different distributors.
(b) All orders go to the same distributor.
(c) Exactly two of the three orders go to one
particular distributor. Determine the following probabilities.
P(A) P(B) P(C)
2-58/33 Each of the possible five outcomes of a
random experiment is equally likely. The sample P(A′) P(B’) P(C′ )
space is {a, b, c, d, e}. Let A denote the event {a, b}, P(A ∩ B)
and B denote the event {c, d, e}. Determine the
following. P(A ∪ B)
(a) P(A) (b) P(B) P(A ∩ C).
(c) P(A′) (d) P(A ∪ B)
(e) P(A ∩ B)
 Theorems on Probability
Probability of a Union
For any two events A and B,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
(2-5)
Examples:
2-53/59 The probability that an American
industry will locate in Shanghai, China, is
0.7, the probability that it will locate in
Beijing, China, is 0.4, and the probability
that it will locate in either Shanghai or
Beijing or Both is 0.8. What is the
probability that the industry will locate
(a) in both cities?
(b) in neither city?
2-92/39 A Web ad can be designed from
four different colors, three font types,
five font sizes, three images, and five
text phrases. A specific design is
randomly generated by the Web server
when you visit the site. Let A denote the
event that the design color is red and let
B denote the event that the font size is
not the smallest one. Use addition rules
to calculate the following probabilities.
(a) P(A ∪ B)
(b) P(A ∪ B′)
(c) P(A′ ∪ B′)
 Addition Rules
If A and B are mutually exclusive
events,
P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) Probability of Union of Three Events
Equation 2-6

For any three events A, B, and C,

P(A ∪ B ∪ C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) − P(A ∩ B) − P(A ∩
C)− P(B ∩ C) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
Equation 2-7

For a collection of mutually exclusive

events E1, E2, …, Ek,
P(E1 ∪ E2 ∪ … ∪ Ek) = P(E1) + P(E2) + … +
P(Ek)
Equation 2-8
 Guided Learning Activity
2-83/38 If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive events with P(A) =
0.2, P(B) = 0.3, and P(C) = 0.4, determine the following
probabilities:
(a) P(A ∪ B ∪ C)
(b) P(A ∩ B ∩ C)
(c) P(A ∩ B)
(d) P[(A ∪ B) ∩ C]
(e) P(A′ ∩ B′ ∩ C′)
 Conditional Probability
The probability that a certain event would occur 2-24/42 Random Inspection
given a previous underlying event already Six parts are selected randomly without
occurred replacement from a bin of 50 parts. The bin
contains 3 defective parts and 47
The conditional probability of an event B given nondefective parts. What is the probability
an event A, denoted as P(B|A), is that the second part is defective given that
the first part is defective?
Solution:
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
P(B|A) = for P(A) > 0. Let A and B denote the events that the first
𝑃 𝐴
Equation 2-9
and second part selected are defective,
respectively. The probability requested can
be expressed as P(B|A). If the first part is
RANDOM SAMPLES defective, prior to selecting the second part
the batch contains 49 parts, of which 2 are
To select randomly implies that at each step of defective. Therefore,
the sample, the items that remain in the batch P(B|A) = 2/49
are equally likely to be selected.
 Conditional Probability
2-104/44 Consider the data on wafer Solution:
contamination and location in the 2-104/44
sputtering tool shown in Table 2-2.
Assume that one wafer is selected at (a)P(A)=0.11+0.4 =0.15
random from this set. Let A denote the 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.11
event that a wafer contains four or more (b)P(A|B) = = = 0.153
𝑃(𝐵) 0.72
particles, and let B denote the event that (c)P(B) = 0.72
a wafer is from the center of the 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.11
sputtering tool. Determine (d)P(B|A) = = = 0.73
𝑃(𝐵) 0.15
(a) P(A) (e) P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.11
(b) P(A|B) (f) P(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = P(A)+P(B)-P(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
(c) P(B) = 0.15+0.72-0.11
(d) P(B|A) = 0.76
(e) P(A ∩ B)
(f) P(A ∪ B)
 Multiplication Rules and Total Probability
For any two events A and B,
P(A ∩ B) = P(B|A)P(A) = P(A|B)P(B)
Equation 2-10
For any three events A1, A2, A3, we
have
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3) = P(A1)P(A2|A1)P(A3|A1 ∩ A2)
Assume E1, E2, …, Ek are k mutually exclusive
and exhaustive sets. Then
P(B) = P(B ∩ E1) + P(B ∩ E2) + … + P(B ∩ Ek)

P(B) = P(B|E1)P(E1) + P(B|E1)P(E1) + …+(B|Ek)P(Ek)

Equation 2-12
 Guided Learning Activity
4.32/205 A small store installed a diesel-powered 2-121/48 Suppose that P(A|B) = 0.4 and P(B) =
generator for emergency power outage because 0.5. Determine the following:
they function independently of electric power. The (a) P(A ∩ B) (b) P(A′ ∩ B)
past history of the town indicates that on about 5%
of days during summer the town loses electricity
due to high winds. However, high winds do not
affect functioning of generators. These generators 2-122/48 Suppose that P(A|B) = 0.2, P(A|B′) =
have a failure rate of about 2%. On a given summer 0.3, and P(B) = 0.8. What is P(A)?
day, what is the probability that the store will be 2-123/48 The probability is 1% that an electrical
totally out of power? connector that is kept dry fails during the
2-127/48 Computer keyboard failures are due to warranty period of a portable computer. If the
faulty electrical connects (12%) or mechanical connector is ever wet, the probability of a failure
defects (88%). Mechanical defects are related to during the warranty period is 5%. If 90% of the
loose keys (27%) or improper assembly (73%). connectors are kept dry and 10% are wet, what
Electrical connect defects are caused by defective proportion of connectors fail during the warranty
wires (35%), improper connections (13%), or poorly period?
welded wires (52%).
(a) Find the probability that a failure is due to loose
keys.
(b) Find the probability that a failure is due to
improperly connected or poorly welded wires.
 Independence
The conditional probability of P(B|A) is
equal to P(B) Equivalently, P(A′ ∩ B′) = P(A′)P(B′)

The outcome of the experiment is in Multiple Events

event A does not affect the probability
that the outcome is in event B
Two events are independent if any one of
the following equivalent statements is
true:
(1) P(A|B) = P(A)
The events E1, E2, …, En are
independent if and only if for any
subset of these events 𝐸𝑖1 , 𝐸𝑖2 , … , 𝐸𝑖𝑘 ,
• 𝑃 𝐸𝑖1 ∩ 𝐸𝑖2 ∩ ⋯ ∩ 𝐸𝑖𝑘 = 𝑃 𝐸𝑖1 × 𝑃 𝐸𝑖2 × ⋯ × 𝑃 𝐸𝑖𝑘
Equation 2-14

(2) P(B|A) = P(B)

(3) P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
Equations 2-13
Examples:
4.33/205 Suppose that P(A) = 0.6, P(B) =
0.3, and P(A ∩ B) = 0.15.
(a) Determine P(A|B).
(b) Are events A and B independent?

Solution:
P(A ∩ B) 0.15
(a) P(A|B) = = = 0.50 4.35/205 A manufacturer of computer keyboards has
𝑃(𝐵) 0.30
assembly plants at two different locations, one in Iowa
and the other in South Carolina. The keyboard faults in
(b) P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) general are classified into three different categories
depending on the location: fault related to a letter key,
a number key, or other function key. The summary of
last year’s inspection of production estimated the fault
rates as follows (Table 4.16). If a keyboard from this
manufacturer is chosen at random, are the events
“faulty letter key” and “produced in South Carolina
facility” independent of each other?
 Guided Learning Activity
2-143/52 If P(A|B) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.8,
and P(A) = 0.3, are the events B and
the complement of A independent?
2-144/52 If P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.2, and A
and B are mutually exclusive, are they
independent?
2-150/53 In a test of a printed
circuit board using a random test
pattern, an array of 10 bits is equally
likely to be 0 or 1. Assume that the
bits are independent.
(a) What is the probability that all
bits are 1s?
(b) What is the probability that all
bits are 0s?
(c) What is the probability that
exactly 5 bits are 1s and 5 bits are
0s?
 Reliability
Reliability theory is concerned with the A system with series configuration will
duration of the useful life of function if and only if all its components
components and systems of are functioning, while a system with
components. That is, it is concerned parallel configuration will function if and
only if at least one of the components is
with determining that a system with functioning. Different components fail
possibly many components will be independently.
functioning at time t. The components
of a system can arranged in two basic
configurations: series configuration
and parallel configuration. A real
system consists of a mixture of series
and parallel components, which can
sometimes be reduced to an
equivalent system of series
configuration or a system of parallel
configuration.
 Reliability
SERIES PROCESS
Consider a system with n components labeled
C1, C2, …, Cn. Let Rk(t) denote the probability
that component Ck has not failed in the interval
(0, t], where k = 1, 2, …, n. That is, Rk(t) is the
probability that Ck has not failed up to time t
and is called the reliability function of Ck. For a
system of components in series, the system
reliability function is given by
𝑅 𝑡 = ς𝑛𝑘=1 𝑅𝑘 𝑡 .
This follows from the fact that all components
must be operational for the system to be
operational.
PARALLEL PROCESS
In the case of a system of parallel components,
we need at least one path between A and B for
the system to be operational. The probability
that no such path exists is the probability that
all the components have failed, which is given
by [1 − R1(t)] [1 − R2(t)] … [1 − Rn(t)]. Thus, the
system reliability function is the complement of
this function and is given by
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R1(t)] [1 − R2(t)] … [1 − Rn(t)]
𝑅 𝑡 = 1 − ς𝑛𝑘=1 1 − 𝑅𝑘 𝑡 .
 Reliability
• 2-32/51 Series Circuit The following•
circuits operates only if there is a
path of functional devices from left
to right. The probability (reliability)
that each device functions is shown
on the graph. Assume the devices fail
independently. What is the
probability that the circuit operates?
Let L and R denote the events that
the left and right devices operate,
respectively.
2-34/51 Parallel Circuit The following
circuit operates if there is a path of
functional devices from left to right.
The probability (reliability) that each
device functions is shown on the
graph. Assume that devices fail
independently. What is the
probability that the circuit operates?
Let T and B denote the events that
the top and bottom devices operate,
respectively.
 Compound Series and Parallel Networks
1.35/43 Find the system reliability
function for the system shown in
Figure 1.10 in which C1 and C2 are in
series and the two are in parallel with
C3.
Solution:
We first reduce the series structure into a
composite component C4 whose reliability
function is given by R4(t) = R1(t)R2(t). Thus,
we obtain the new structure shown in Figure
1.11
Thus, we obtain two parallel components
and the system reliability function is
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R3(t)] [1 − R4(t)]
R(t) = 1 − [1 − R3(t)] [1 − R1(t)R2(t)]
 Guided Learning Activity
• 2-35/52 Advanced Circuit The of functional devices only
following circuit operates only through the three units on the
if there is a path of functional left. Similarly, let M denote the
devices from left to right. The event that there is a path of
probability (reliability) that functional devices only through
each device functions is shown the two units in the middle.
on the graph. Assume that
devices fail independently.
What is the probability that the
circuit operates? Let L denote
the event that there is a path
 Reliability
• 2-156/53 The following circuit• 2-208/61 The following circuit
operates if and only if there is a path operates if and only if there is a path
of functional devices from left to of functional devices from left to
right. The probability that each right. Assume devices fail
device functions is as shown. Assume independently and that the
that the probability that a device is probability of failure of each device is
functional does not depend on shown. What is the probability that
whether or not other devices are the circuit operates?
functional. What is the probability
that the circuit operates?
 Summary
• A random experiment is an experiment that
can result in different outcomes, even
though it is repeated in the same manner
each time.
• The sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a random experiment.
• The event is a subset of a sample space.
• Multiplication rule is a formula used to•
determine the number of ways to complete
an operation from the number of ways to
complete successive steps.
• A permutation is an arrangement of all (n!)
or part (permutation of subsets) of a set of
objects.
• Two circular permutations are not
considered different unless corresponding
objects in the two arrangements are
preceded or followed by a different object as
we proceed in a clockwise direction. For
example, if 4 people are playing bridge, we
do not have a new permutation if they all
move one position in a clockwise direction.
By considering one person in a fixed position
and arranging the other in 3! ways, we find
that there are 6 distinct arrangements for
the bridge game.
A combination is actually a partition with
two cells, the on cell containing the r objects
selected and the other cell containing the (n
─ r) objects that are left.
 Summary
• Probability is a numerical measure between
0 and 1 assigned to events in a sample
space. Higher numbers indicate the event is
more likely to occur.
• The odds equals the ratio of two
probabilities.
• The addition rule is the formula used to
determine the probability of the union of
two (or more) events from the probabilities
of the events and their intersection(s).
• Conditional probability is the probability of•
an event given that the random experiment
produces an outcome in another event.
• The multiplication rule is the formula used to
determine the probability of the intersection
of two (or more) events.
• Independence is a property of a probability
model and two (or more) events that allows
the probability of the intersection to be
calculated as the product of the
probabilities.
• For the total probability rule, given a
collection of mutually exclusive events
whose union is the sample space, the
probability of an event can be written as the
sum of the probabilities of the intersections
of the event with the members of this
collection.
Reliability is the probability that a specified
mission will be completed. It usually refers
to the probability that a lifetime of a
continuous random variable exceeds a
specified time limit.
 References
• Ibe, Oliver C. Fundamentals of Applied Probability and Random
Processes, © 2005
• Montgomery and Runger. Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers, 6th Ed. © 2014
• Scheaffer, et al. Probability and Statistics for Engineering
Students, Philippine Ed. © 2012
• Spiegel, et al. Schaum’s Outlines Probability and Statistics, 3rd
Ed. © 2009, 2000, 1975
• Walpole, et al. Probability and Statistics for Engineers and
Scientists 9th Ed. © 2012, 2007, 2002