HOET Lecture 11

Malthusian Theory
of
Population
Lecture 11
Malthus, Communism & Christianity
ECON 101
12/9/2019 cdbalubayan@gmail.com usep-caec HOET 1st Sem SY2019-2020 1
HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT
Our Objective
• At the end of this presentation, we will be able to

attained the following:
1. Discuss Malthus’ An essay in the First Principle of
Population;
2. Explain the Core Principles of Malthus Theory on

Population;
3. Understand the Theory of Population, Proposed

Solution, Malthusian Catastrophe; and
4. Present some criticism about Malthus’ Theory
ECON 101
Thomas Malthus
• An essay in the First Principle of
Population
– First published in 1798
• Debatable whether the principles of

Malthus two hundred years ago which
was very revolutionary and
controversial, have any relevance to
the modern world.
• The world population in 1798 was at

nine million people.
• We have now passed the seven billion

mark.
ECON 101
The Core Principles of Malthus’ Theory
• Food is necessary for human existence.
• Human population tends to grow faster than the

power in the earth to produce subsistence.
• The effects of these two unequal powers must be

kept equal.
• Since humans tend not to limit their population size

voluntarily
– “Preventive checks” in Malthus’ terminology
must be done.
ECON 101
Theory of Population
• Malthus was very concerned by the

condition of the poor and
particularly by rural poverty.
• Because of this he was skeptical of

notions of the perfectibility of
society.
• 1st Edition of the Essay is an a

priori polemic—the 2nd Edition
included much empirical
observation.
• Inspired Darwin’s idea of “the

struggle for survival” .
ECON 101
Importance of History
• In 1798 Thomas Malthus
published his views on the
effect of population on food
supply.
• His theory has two basic

principles
i. Population grows at a
geometric rate i.e. 1, 2, 4,
16, 32, etc.
ii. Food production increases

at an arithmetic rate i.e. 1,
2, 3, 4, etc.
ECON 101
Value in Analysis
• Geometric And Arithmetic Ratios
• Population, when unchecked, grows in a

geometric ratio.
– Population, if unchecked, will double

every 25 years [ a geometric
progression is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64,
etc.].
• Evidence from the US where land is

abundant.
– Subsistence grows at an arithmetic

ratio [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 etc.].
• Subsistence still grows, but due to the

different growth ratios population must
eventually press against the means of
subsistence.
ECON 101
Proposed Solutions of Malthus
• Malthus suggested:
– that once this ceiling (catastrophe) had been reached, further growth in population
would be prevented by negative and positive checks.
 Negative Checks (Decreased Birth  Positive Checks (Increased Death

Rate) Rate
 Positive Checks were ways to reduce
 Negative Checks were used to limit the population size by events such as famine,
population growth. disease, war - increasing the mortality rate
and reducing life expectancy.
 It included abstinence/ postponement of
marriage which lowered the fertility rate.
He saw the checks
 Malthus favored moral restraint (including
late marriage and sexual abstinence) as a as a natural
check on population growth.
 However, it is worth noting that Malthus

method of
proposed this only for the working and poor
classes! population.
ECON 101
Malthusian Catastrophe
• Malthusian Catastrophe
– Also phrased Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis, Malthusian disaster,

or Malthusian nightmare
– Was originally foreseen to be a forced return to subsistence-level

conditions once population growth had outpaced agricultural
production.
– Later formulations consider economic growth limits as well.
– Malthusian catastrophe are very similar to the Iron Law of Wages.
– The main difference is that the Malthusian theories predict what will
happen over several generations or centuries, whereas the Iron Law of
Wages predicts what will happen in a matter of years and decades..
ECON 101
Criticism
• As a general rule the following points were raised as criticism against
Malthusian Theory:
i. The ratio of arithmetical progression of means of subsistence and the

geometrical progression of population growth was never proved.
ii. In so many cases the theory of the growth of the means of subsistence in
arithmetical ratio was not proved.
iii. Malthus did not clearly distinguish between fecundity and fertility.
iv. Malthus did not succeed in connecting positive and preventive checks with
his theory.
v. Friedrich Engels also criticizes the Malthusian catastrophe because Malthus

failed to see that surplus population is connected to surplus wealth, surplus
capital, and surplus landed property.
vi. Ester Boserup wrote that population levels determine agricultural methods,
rather than agricultural methods determining population (via food supply).
ECON 101
---END---
ECON 101

HOET Lecture 11

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Malthusian Theory

• At the end of this presentation, we will be able to

2. Explain the Core Principles of Malthus Theory on

3. Understand the Theory of Population, Proposed

4. Present some criticism about Malthus’ Theory

• Debatable whether the principles of

• The world population in 1798 was at

• We have now passed the seven billion

• Human population tends to grow faster than the

• The effects of these two unequal powers must be

• Since humans tend not to limit their population size

• Malthus was very concerned by the

• Because of this he was skeptical of

• 1st Edition of the Essay is an a

• Inspired Darwin’s idea of “the

• His theory has two basic

ii. Food production increases

• Population, when unchecked, grows in a

– Population, if unchecked, will double

• Evidence from the US where land is

– Subsistence grows at an arithmetic

• Subsistence still grows, but due to the

 Negative Checks (Decreased Birth  Positive Checks (Increased Death

 However, it is worth noting that Malthus

– Also phrased Malthusian check, Malthusian crisis, Malthusian disaster,

– Was originally foreseen to be a forced return to subsistence-level

– Later formulations consider economic growth limits as well.

– Malthusian catastrophe are very similar to the Iron Law of Wages.

i. The ratio of arithmetical progression of means of subsistence and the

v. Friedrich Engels also criticizes the Malthusian catastrophe because Malthus

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