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Mean
SANDWICH1.XLS
This file contains the results of a survey done by a
fast food restaurant. The restaurant recently added a
new sandwich to its menu. They conducted a survey
to estimate the popularity of this sandwich.
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The t Distribution
The t distribution is a close relative of the normal
distribution that appears in a variety of statistical
applications.
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The t Distribution -- continued
Details of using the TINV function:
– The first argument is the total probability we want in both
tails - half of this goes in the right-hand tail and half goes in
the left-hand tail.
– Unlike the TDIST function, there is no third argument for the
TINV function.
The t distribution is used when we want to make
inferences about a population mean and the
population standard deviation is unknown.
Two other close relatives of the normal distribution
are the chi-square and F distribution.
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Confidence Intervals and Levels
To obtain a confidence interval for the population
mean, we first specify a confidence level, usually
90%, 95%, or 99%.
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Calculation
The manager must use StatPro’s One-Sample
procedures on the Satisfaction variable.
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Results
The results of the calculation are:
– The best guess for the population mean rating is 6.250, the
sample average in cell F7.
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Assumptions
We might question whether the sample is really a
random sample matters.
– The manager may have selected random customers but
more likely she selected 40 consecutive customer. This type
of sample is called a convenience sample. If there isn’t a
reason to assume these 40 differ in any way from the entire
population, then it is safe to assume them as a random
sample.
Another assumption is that the population distribution
is normal.
– This is probably not a problem because confidence intervals
based on the t distribution are robust to violations of
normality. This means that the resulting confidence intervals
are valid for any populations that are approximately normal.
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Confidence Interval for a
Proportion
Background Information
The fast food manager from Example 9.1 has already sampled
40 customers to estimate the population mean rating of its new
sandwich.
Her thinking is that these are the customers who are likely to
purchase the sandwich again.
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SANDWICH2.XLS
This file contains the solution.
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Results -- continued
The comparison of the two show slight differences
but these are negligible for large sample sizes.
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PARTS.XLS
This file shows the sample results in columns A and
B.
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Results
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Calculations
Because he is concerned about the mean and the
standard deviation of diameters, we obtain 95%
confidence intervals for both.
– This is easy with StatPro’s One-Sample procedure.
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Background Information --
continued
To check this SureStep installs motors from supplier
A on 30 of its treadmills and motors from supplier B
on another 30 of its treadmills.
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MOTORS.XLS
The data from the experiment appears in this file.
Here is a portion of that data.
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Boxplots
In any comparison problem it is a good idea to look
initially at side-by-side boxplots of the two samples.
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Boxplots -- continued
The boxplots show
– the distribution of times until failure are skewed to the right
for each supplier
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Confidence Interval
A confidence interval for the mean difference allows
us to see whether the differences apparent in the
boxplots can be generalized to all motors from the
two suppliers.
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Confidence Interval -- continued
The difference between sample means is 93.133
hours, the pooled estimate of the common population
standard deviation is 272.196 hours, the standard
error of the sample mean difference is 70.281 hours;
these values lead to the following 95% confidence
interval for the mean difference: 47.549 to 233.815.
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COUPONS.XLS
The data from the sale are recorded in this file.
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Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals are a function of three things:
– the data in the sample
• We have control over the data by using the various random
sampling plans to reduce variability.
• An area of statistics called experimental design suggests how
to perform experiments to obtain the most information from a
given amount of sample data.
– the confidence level
• This effect is clear as the confidence level increases, the length
of the confidence interval increases as well.
– the sample size(s)
• The most obvious way to control confidence interval length is to
choose the size of the sample appropriately.
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Sample Size
Sample size selection must be done before a sample
is observed.
1.961.597
2
n
0.3
2
z multiple x est
n
B
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Calculations
The formula for n uses three inputs:
– the z multiple, which is 1.96 for a 95% confidence level;
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Calculations -- continued
The formula yields a rounded result of n = 109.
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Calculations -- continued
The same calculations can be done using the Sample
Size Selection procedure of Excel’s StatPro add-in.
– Just select the menu item and select the parameter to
analyze and enter the requested values.
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Question
What if the manager was at the planning stage and
didn’t have a “preliminary” sample of size 40? What
standard deviation estimate should she use for est ?
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