Intel Estimate

55th ID (Mech)
Intelligence Estimate
Group 1
CPT Marquez
G-2
55 Intelligence Estimate
55th ID (Mech)
Outline
• Mission
• Situation and Considerations
• Analysis
• Comparison of COAs
• Recommended COA
• Summary
• Questions
• Decision
55th ID (Mech)
X (US) Corps Mission

Statement
“On order, X (US) Corps defends in sector to
defeat two Dakota armies north of PL BLACK
and prevent seizure of Kansas City and
Topeka to provide 33d Army time to build
counteroffensive forces and maneuver space
to conduct offensive operations to restore
prewar borders.”
55th ID (Mech)
55th ID (M) Mission Statement

On order (OO), 55 ID (Mech) defends in
sector N of Kansas River between Perry
Lake and Missouri River along PL Gray
to defeat 2d Dakota Mech Army attack
N of PL blue to provide time and
maneuver space for X (US) Corps.
55th ID (Mech)
55th ID (M) Problem Statement

To determine the best COA based on the
Intelligence Estimate. The overall
problem is to determine which COA will
obtain the best solution using
acceptability, suitability, feasibility,
distinguishability and completeness.
COA #2 will provide the best solution.
55th ID (Mech)
Situation and Considerations

• Weather
• Terrain
• Other Pertinent Facts
55th ID (Mech)
Enemy Forces
55th ID (Mech)
Enemy Forces
55th ID (Mech)
Enemy Forces
55th ID (Mech)
Enemy Forces
55th ID (Mech)
Enemy Forces (cont.)

• HAVOC
• ABN / AA
• FA
• Chemical threat
55th ID (Mech)
Enemy Forces (cont.)
55th ID (Mech)
PL BROWN NEBRASKA PL BROWN
COA 1
M EASTLAND
I
S
xx x
S
O
U
2 42 R
I
R
I
XX V
XX E
9 R
3 PL TAN
PL TAN S S Atchison
A
X
x I
x
S x x PL
GRAY
PL C x x
GRAY H
x
R
I Leavenworth
PL
BLUE S
PL
BLUE
Lake x x
AA JAYHAWK
Perry x Kansas
AA (-)
IKE
City
KANSAS RIVER
PL BLACK
Lawrence
55
TCF
Intelligence Estimate
55th ID (Mech)
COA 3
M
I EASTLAND
S
S
xx x O
U
2 42 R
I
R
A
I
X xx xx V
I
E
S
3 9 R
C
H PL TAN
R
I
S
PL TAN S S Atchison
X
x x
x x x PL
GRAY
PL ll
GRAY AXIS
RICK
PL Leavenworth
X
BLUE
x x
PL
BLUE
x x
Lake
Perry Kansas
AA IKE
TCF AA CAT City
KANSAS RIVER
PL BLACK AA JAYHAWK
Lawrence
x
55th ID (Mech)
COA 2 M
I EASTLAND
S
S
xx x O
U
R
2 42 I
R
I
xx V
E
xx R
9
3 PL TAN
X
PL TAN C C Atchison
x x
x x PL
GRAY
PL x x
GRAY x
Leavenworth
PL X
x
BLUE A
X PL
IS
BLUE
C
H
R x AA CAT
I
S
AA JAYHAWK
X x
Lake x
Perry Kansas
City
KANSAS RIVER
PL BLACK
Lawrence TCF
55th ID (Mech)
Friendly Forces
• Current status of resources (IEW within
Div/ Corps/ EAC)
• Comparison of requirements vs.

capabilities
• Key considerations
55th ID (Mech)
IEW Assets - Division

• Located within the MI Battalion
– All Source Analysis Section (ASAS)
– Mobile Integrated Tactical Terminal (MITT)
– Quickfix (EH-60A)
– Radars
• AN/PVS-15A
• AN/PPS-5B
– Sensors
• REMBASS
• GBCS
6465V000/0399 11
55th ID (Mech)
IEW Assets - Corps

• Corps
– Guardrail
– Intelligence Processing Facility (IPF)
– Electronic Processing and Dissemination
System (EPDS)
– Enhanced Tactical Radar Correlator
(ETRC)
6465V000/0399 12
55th ID (Mech)
IEW Assets - Corps/EAC

• Corps
– JSTARS Ground Station Module
– Modernized Imagery Exploitation System
(MIES)
• EAC
– JSTARS
– AWACCS
6465V000/0399 13
55th ID (Mech)
Evaluation Criteria
Title: Lines of Communication
Definition: Roads available in the MBA
Unit of measure: # of Roads (East – West)
Benchmark: 28 (average)
Formula: > 28 is an advantage; < 28 is a
disadvantage; more is better
55th ID (Mech)
Evaluation Criteria (cont)

Title: Tactical Combat Force (TCF)
Definition: Security of Bridges
Unit of measure: # of companies in TCF
Benchmark: 3 (doctrine)
55th ID (Mech)

Title: Ground Surveillance Radar (GSR)
Definition: troops in forward area
providing security
Unit of measure: # of battalions
55th ID (Mech)

Title: Weather
Definition: Effect of weather on combat troops
Unit of measure: # of entrenched battalions
Formula: < 6 is an advantage; > 6 is a
55th ID (Mech)
Assumptions
• Larger TCF will protect more bridges along
the Kansas River
• Larger covering force will increase security

and HUMINT while emplacing GSR
• Fatigue for entrenched battalions is directly

correlated with weather
55th ID (Mech)
COA1
Advantages
None
Disadvantages
TCF – 1 (> 3, # Co in
TCF)
GSR – 1 (> 2, # Fwd Bns)
LOC – 26 ( > 28, # E/W roads)
Weather – 7 (< 6, # entrchd
55Bns)Intelligence Estimate
55th ID (Mech)
COA2
Advantages
TCF – 3 (> 3, # Co in
TCF)
GSR – 3 (> 2, # Fwd Bns)
LOC – 32 ( > 28, # E/W roads)
Disadvantages
Bns)
55th ID (Mech)
COA3
Advantages
TCF – 3 (> 3, # Co in
TCF)
Bns)
Disadvantages
GSR – 1 (> 2, # Fwd Bns)
LOC – 26 ( > 28, # E/W roads)
55th ID (Mech)
Comparison
55th ID (Mech)
Recommended COA
Recommend COA 2 as the best option
even though weather has a larger
effect, the largest covering force in the
MBA, the larger TCF in the division rear
and the highest number of LOC
outweighs weather effects.
55th ID (Mech)
Summary
COA2 is the best option which provides
the most security in the MBA and rear
while emplacing GSR and HUMINT
capabilities well forward. Risk is accepted
with the C3I of the Aviation Bde and the
employment of part of the reserve Bde
(Attack Bn) for deep attack.
55th ID (Mech)
Questions / Decision
55th ID (Mech)
Pairwise Comparison
55th ID (Mech)
Sensitivity Analysis

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55th ID (Mech)

X (US) Corps Mission

55th ID (M) Mission Statement

55th ID (M) Problem Statement

Situation and Considerations

• Other Pertinent Facts

Enemy Forces (cont.)

Enemy Forces (cont.)

• Comparison of requirements vs.

IEW Assets - Division

IEW Assets - Corps

IEW Assets - Corps/EAC

Evaluation Criteria (cont)

Evaluation Criteria (cont)

Evaluation Criteria (cont)

• Larger covering force will increase security

• Fatigue for entrenched battalions is directly

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