Different Types of

Probabilities
• When we talk about a probability, we talk
about how something is likely to happen.
The idea of probability is much to do
about studying chances. It’s a part of
mathematics that ascertains how one
event might or might not happen.
• Probability, however, is just a guide so
studying it will not guarantee something
happening. Tossing a coin and throwing
dices are two of the most common
examples.
Classical Probability
• This is a very common type of probability and can be
demonstrated most easily by considering what happens
when you roll a pair of dice or toss a coin in the air.
When a referee tosses a coin at the beginning of a
football game, and it lands on the field, only two
possibilities will occur, heads or tails.
• The odds of it falling on a certain side can be calculated
by determining all of the possible outcomes (in this case,
only two), and then, by recording what actually
happened each time you tossed that coin. In other
words, you can toss the coin 10, 20, or 50 times, then
write down what each outcome was, and you can
determine what the classical probability of a certain
outcome is.
In classical probability, you are declaring that in
every experiment involving statistics, there are
going to be elements that each have the same
chance of happening. If you roll one die, which has
six sides, the chances are equal that it will land on
one of the six numbers, just like a coin toss is
going to result in the same probability of ending
up on either tails or heads every time. In other
words, the probability is equal to the number of
favorable outcomes divided by the number of
possible outcomes.
Conditional Probability
This type of probably considers a group of events
that are, in essence, dependent on one another.
It looks at things such as past performance, which
normally influences performances later on, so that
the probability of that specific performance can be
determined. In other words, it looks at the whole
picture and takes into consideration what has
happened in the past to determine what might
happen in the future. Conditional probability
measures the likelihood of a particular situation
happening whereby another even has occurred,
either by evidence, assumption, or assertion.
Markov Chain Probability
With similarities to conditional probability, a
Markov chain probability looks at sequences
of events and the fact that each of these
probabilities depends on what happened in
a prior event or even a set of events.
If it is snowing outside, and you’re
wondering if it is still going to be snowing
an hour or three hours from now, you can
base your guess on how much it is snowing
in that first hour.
• Markov chain probability uses matrixes to gain more
efficiency in the probability, and it can be used in
determining everything from specific weather patterns to
how well your stocks will perform. Whatever you are
discussing, be it football scores or certain numbers or
letters, there is always a finite number of states involved,
and it is always determined by (1) the current state (e.g.,
it is snowing outside), and (2) the amount of time that
has elapsed (e.g., one hour).
• Markov chain probabilities always consist of a set of
transitions. These transitions are determined by a
probability distribution that satisfies the Markov
property, or the property of a stochastic process that is
known as “memoryless.”
Personal (Subjective) Probability
• This is perhaps the least reliable type of
probability because it is based on someone’s
personal judgment and reasoning. With
subjective, or personal probability, the
probability is based on an outcome that an
individual expects to happen. No formal
calculations or interpretations are used, but the
probability essentially centers around one
person’s feelings and knowledge on the subject.
For instance, if you’re watching a basketball or
hockey game with some friends, you may declare
at the beginning of the game that Team A will win.
This assumption may be based on the fact that
you want that particular team to win, but it can
also be based on things such as their current
rankings. In any case, subjective probability
involves both basic facts and the person’s
subjective opinions to form a statement that you
think that certain team is going to win.
Experimental Probability
The experimental probability of something
happening is determined by two things. First, the
total number of trials has to be considered.
Second, the total number of outcomes is taken
into consideration. If you roll a quarter 100 times
and it lands on tails 40 of those times, your
theoretical probability is going to be 40/100, or
0.4. This probability describes the number of
times a certain outcome happened divided by the
number of trials that were performed.
Relative Frequency Interpretation of
Probability
In the relative frequency interpretation of
probability, you start by conducting a
certain experiment many different times,
and then base the relative frequency on the
actual measurements or on the observation
itself. For example, if you roll a die 50 times
and the number four comes up 15 times,
the relative frequency of the number four is
15/50.
Standard Probability
Probability always involves comparing
how many possible outcomes there are
to how many times a certain outcome
might occur within that total number.
With standard probability, you have to
look at specific events whereby the
first event never affects the second or
third event’s outcome.
Theoretical Probability
This is one of the easiest ways to determine
the probability of something happening. It
is based on the possible chances of XYZ
happening. If you’re trying to figure out the
theoretical probability that a coin is going to
land on either heads or tails, you have to
first know that only these two possibilities
will occur.
In the tossing of a coin, there are only two
possibilities, heads or tails, and, therefore, the
theoretical probability that your coin toss will
result in the coin landing on heads is one in two,
which is also demonstrated as 1:2. You’re taking
into consideration the number of options (in this
case, two) and basing the theoretical possibility on
that premise. If the coin had three sides and heads
was one of the three possibilities, landing on
heads would be a one-in-three possibility, or 1:3,
in this instance.
Another way to look at theoretical
probability is to say that the possibility
of something happening is equal. A die
has six sides, and when you roll one so
you can view the result, you can say
that all six sides have an equal chance
of appearing.
Unconditional Probability
This type of probability refers to the single independent
chance that a single outcome will result from a total
sample of outcomes that are possible. If you want to find
an event’s unconditional probability, you can add the sum
of the outcomes of that particular event, then divide by
the total number of outcomes possible. If you are viewing
a group of people and select someone at random, this
means each person in that group has the same odds of
being chosen. If you decide to select a woman, or an
individual within a certain age range, the odds are, quite
naturally, a little different.