Reporter: JADY CLAIRE J.

LULLEGAO
MAST-GEN. SCI.
 Climate change
• Refers to periodic modification of Earth’s climate
brought about as a result of changes in the
atmosphere as well as interactions between the
atmosphere and various other geologic,
chemical, biological, and geographic factors
within the Earth systems.
• Climate is the average weather at a given point
and time of year, over a long period (typically 30
years).
 If the climate doesn’t remain constant, we call it
climate change.
 Causes
• Greenhouse gas concentrations
increasing
 Causes
• Increased
concentration of
CO2 (right)
– Burning fossil fuels
in cars, industry and
homes
– Deforestation
– Burning of forests
 Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse
Gas
Gas that absorbs
infrared radiation
Ex: Carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous
oxide,
chlorofluorocarbons
and tropospheric
ozone
 The Climate is Changing
• Temperatures are rising
• Sea levels are rising
• The ocean is acidifying
• Climate change is reflected
Temperature rise, indicated by color
in water cycle changes and (red=higher rate of increase). Earth’s surface
temperature has risen ~1.3˚ F since 1850.
in extreme weather
Image courtesy of the Joint Institute for the Study of the
Atmosphere & Ocean, U. of Washington.
 Ecological Impacts
Living things are intimately connected to their
physical surroundings.
Ecosystems are affected by changes in:
– temperature – salinity (saltiness)
– rainfall/moisture – activities & distribution of other species
– pH – …many other factors
 Ecological Impacts
As a result of climate change, species and
ecosystems are experiencing changes in:
– ranges – cycling of water and nutrients
– timing of biological activity – the risk of disturbance from
– growth rates fire, insects, and invasive
– relative abundance of species species
 Ecological Impacts
• As a result of climate change, species and
ecosystems are experiencing changes in:
– ranges – cycling of water and nutrients
– timing of biological activity – the risk of disturbance from
– growth rates fire, insects, and invasive
– relative abundance of species species
 Range Shifts
Species are relocating to areas
with more tolerable climate
conditions.
Range shifts particularly
threaten species that:
– cannot move fast enough
– depend on conditions that are
becoming more rare (like sea ice)

Plant hardiness zone maps, 1990 and

2006. Most zones shifted northward in
this period.
Map courtesy of the National Arbor Day Foundation.
 Ecological Impacts
As a result of climate change, species and
ecosystems are experiencing changes in:
– ranges – cycling of water and nutrients
– timing of biological activity – the risk of disturbance from
– growth rates fire, insects, and invasive
– relative abundance of species species
 Timing of Biological Activity
Some seasonal biological
activities are happening
15-20 days earlier than
several decades ago:
– Trees blooming earlier European pied
– Migrating birds arriving earlier flycatcher chicks are
now born later than the
– Butterflies emerging earlier caterpillars they eat.

Changes in timing differ from

species to species, so
ecological interactions are
disrupted. Images used under the
terms of the GNU Free
Documentation License.
Global Changes, Local Impacts
Although climate change is global, the
ecological impacts are often local.

What’s happening in your backyard?

Impacts in the Pacific Coastline
Shifting Ranges of Checkerspot Butterflies
• Edith’s checkerspot: range has shifted northward and to higher
elevations over 40+ years
• Quino checkerspot: first endangered species for which climate
change is officially listed as a threat and as a factor in the plan for its
recovery

Image courtesy of Dr. Gordon Pratt, www.quinocheckerspot.com.

 Impacts in the Pacific Coastline
Changes in the Water
• Shift in species ranges: many
species moving northward
• Mysterious dead zones along
Washington and Oregon coastline:
cause undetermined but potential
links to climate change

Scientists retrieve a water sample for

research on a recurring “dead zone” off
the coasts of Washington and Oregon.
Image courtesy of Oregon State University.
Impacts in Alaska and the Arctic
Effects on Ice-Dependent Animals
• Year-round sea ice shrinking: walruses and other animals
challenged to find platforms for nursing and resting
• Polar bears facing difficult hunting conditions: seals now surfacing in
open ocean instead of holes in ice
Impacts in Alaska and the Arctic
Changing Food Chains
• Increased shrub growth presenting
a threat to caribou (wild reindeer)
– Shrubs crowding out lichens (a key
winter food for caribou)
– Shrubs collect snow, causing deep
snowdrifts: deep snow makes it
hard for caribou to reach lichens
hidden beneath
Impacts in Alaska and the Arctic
Feedback Loops: Arctic Warming Faster
• The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet
– As sea ice and seasonal snow cover melts, previously reflective white
surfaces converted to darker surfaces (to ocean water or vegetation)
– Thawing permafrost releases carbon dioxide and methane into the
atmosphere, increasing greenhouse gases

Rate of warming,
indicated by colors
(red=higher rate).

Image created with data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
 Impacts in Western Mountains
Wildfire, Drought, and Insects: Complex Interactions
Climate change increases the risk of fire in areas where decades of total
fire suppression have resulted in buildup of dead fuels.
Wildfire increasing in frequency, size, season length:
– Longer, more intense summer droughts stressing trees
– Stressed trees are more susceptible to attacking beetles, which leave
standing dead fuels in their wake

A wildfire in Bitterroot National

Forest, Montana.

Image courtesy of John McColgan, USDA Forest Service.

 Impacts in Western Mountains
Effects on The American Pika
• Climbing to higher elevations in response
to warming
• Many populations now isolated on
“mountaintop islands”

Pika images courtesy of J. R. Douglass, Yellowstone

National Park; Aerial image courtesy NASA.
 Impacts in Western Mountains
Changes in Trout Habitat
• Earlier springs, warmer summers reducing stream flows as
mountain snow melts off earlier in the season
• Some streams reaching temperatures lethal to trout (>78˚F)

Image courtesy USGS.

Impacts in Southwestern Deserts
Wildfire and Invasive Species
• Nonnative grasses becoming
established in deserts:
– Red brome (in the Mojave)
– Buffelgrass (in the Sonoran)
• Grasses transform desert into
flammable grassland: fire-adapted
grasses re-establish quickly, pushing
out native species like Saguaro cactus
• Spread of grasses not directly a result
of climate change, but warming may
allow them to further spread in the
desert and extend to higher
elevations. Image courtesy T. Esque, USGS.
Impacts in Southwestern Deserts
The Piñon Pine: Past a Tipping Point
• Drought in 2000-2003 stressed a large swath of piñons, leaving
them susceptible to infestation by pine bark beetles
• This example shows how a stressful event can trigger dramatic
ecological change when an ecosystem is subject to many interacting
stresses

2002 2004

Images courtesy D. Allen, USGS.

 Impacts in the Central U.S.
Agricultural Impacts
• Difficult to pinpoint climate impacts:
climate change occurring along with
improvements in farming techniques
• In general, plants may:
– Grow faster (increasing yields unless it
becomes too warm or crops mature too
early)
– Be affected by carbon dioxide levels
(increased growth for some plants, not for
others)
• Good information about changes and
adaptive practices is essential for farmers
 Impacts in the Central U.S.
Migratory Waterways: Drying Up?
• “Playa lakes” or “Prairie potholes” essential for migrating birds: used
for resting, feeding, and mating
• Climate change, combined with other pressures (irrigation demands,
pollution, etc.), may dry up these important waterways

Image courtesy of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

 Impacts in the Southeast
Challenges to Everglades Restoration
Everglades has shrunk due to human manipulation of the region’s
water; ongoing efforts aim to restore the ecosystem.
• Climate change impacts (increasing water temperature, changes in
precipitation) may make restoration efforts more difficult

1850 Today

Images courtesy Rodney Cammauf, National Park Service (panther); South Florida Water Management District (maps)
 Impacts in the Southeast
Sea-level Rise
• Fragments barrier islands, reconfigures
shorelines
• May leave certain ecosystems struggling
to adapt—in particular those adapted to
the conditions between land and sea
• Landward movement of mangroves and
marshes may be inhibited by human
development
 Impacts in the Southeast
Coral Reefs: Multiple Changes
• Climate change is compounding other
factors affecting reefs (coastal
development, pollution, overfishing)
• Heat stress causes coral bleaching: corals
expel symbiotic algae, leaving white
“bones” behind (deadly to coral if long-
lasting)
• Ocean acidification affects marine
organisms’ ability to build shells and
skeletons: likely to slow or stop the growth
of coral by 2100
Coral bleaching

Image courtesy of NOAA.

 Impacts in the Southeast
Northward Movement of Tropical Species
• Bird and butterfly watchers across the Southeast looking out for new
species; some former seasonal migrants now staying year-round

The rufous hummingbird

has become a year-
round resident in
Alabama.

Image courtesy Dean E. Briggins,

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
 Impacts in the Northeast
Fisheries
• Cod: affected by water temperature
– Habitat may become restricted to cooler
pockets (<54˚F for adults, <46˚F for young)
• Lobsters: affected by oxygen levels
– Warmer water holds less oxygen: oxygen
becomes insufficient for lobsters >79˚F
– In north, warming may improve lobster habitat
• Oysters: Deadly parasite Perkinsus marinus
moving northward
– Range expanded from Chesapeake Bay to
Maine: shift linked to above-average winter
temperatures
 The Role of Human Beings
Causes of Climate Change
• It is very likely that most of the
climate change in the current era is
the result of human activities.
– Human activities have increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
– These gases trap heat and cause
the Earth to warm.

Figure adapted from Climate Change 2007: The Physical

Science Basis. Working Group 1 Contribution to the 4th
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Figure SPM.5. Cambridge University Press.
 The Role of Human Beings
Rate of Climate Change
• Climate change in the current era is expected to be extremely rapid
compared to transitions in and out of past ice ages.

• Ecosystems are more vulnerable to changes that happen rapidly.

A scientist holding an ice

core—a sample taken
from polar ice caps or
mountain glaciers.
Ice cores reveal clues
about climate changes in
Earth’s past.

Image courtesy USGS National Ice Core Laboratory.

 The Role of Human Beings
Compounding Factors
• Human activities have many other effects on ecosystems.
• These effects compound the effects of climate change, making it
more difficult for ecosystems to adapt.

– Pollution – Overfishing
– Habitat fragmentation – Manipulation of water sources
– Invasive species – …and much more
 The Role of Human Beings
Improving the Outlook
• Changes in activities at the personal, community, and national
levels can affect the rate of future climate change and species’
abilities to adapt.
• Some of the areas where changes in human activities could help
species adapt include:
– Approaches to agriculture
– Water management practices
– Energy sources and use
– Transportation
– Pollution remediation
– Biological conservation
– …and much more
 Global Climate in 2015-2019:
Climate change accelerates
• Geneva, 23 September 2019 - The tell-tale signs
and impacts of climate change – such as sea
level rise, ice loss and extreme weather –
increased during 2015-2019, which is set to be
the warmest five-year period on record,
according to the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO). Greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere have also
increased to record levels, locking in the
warming trend for generations to come.
• The WMO report on The Global
Climate in 2015-2019 , released to
inform the United Nations Secretary-
General’s Climate Action Summit,
says that the global average
temperature has increased by 1.1°C
since the pre-industrial period, and by
0.2°C compared to 2011-2015.
• The climate statement – which covers
until July 2019 - was released as part
of a high-level synthesis report from
leading scientific institutions United
in Science under the umbrella of the
Science Advisory Group of the UN
Climate Summit 2019.
• An accompanying WMO report on greenhouse
gas concentrations shows that 2015-2019 has
seen a continued increase in carbon dioxide
(CO2) levels and other key greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere to new records, with CO2 growth
rates nearly 20% higher than the previous five
years. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for
centuries and in the ocean for even longer.
Preliminary data from a subset of greenhouse
gas observational sites for 2019 indicate that
CO2 global concentrations are on track to reach
or even exceed 410 ppm by the end of 2019.
• “Sea level rise has accelerated and we are
concerned that an abrupt decline in the
Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, which
will exacerbate future rise. As we have
seen this year with tragic effect in the
Bahamas and Mozambique, sea level rise
and intense tropical storms led to
humanitarian and economic catastrophes.
 Sea level rise
• Over the five-year period May 2014 -2019, the
rate of global mean sea-level rise has amounted
to 5 mm per year, compared with 4 mm per year
in the 2007-2016 ten-year period. This is
substantially faster than the average rate since
1993 of 3.2 mm/year. The contribution of land
ice melt from the world glaciers and the ice
sheets has increased over time and now
dominate the sea level budget, rather than
thermal expansion.
 Shrinking Ice
• Throughout 2015-2018, the Arctic’s
average September minimum (summer)
sea-ice extent was well below the 1981-
2010 average, as was the average winter
sea-ice extent. The four lowest records for
winter occurred during this period. Multi-
year ice has almost disappeared.
• Antarctic February minimum (summer) and September
maximum (winter) sea-ice extent values have become
well below the 1981-2010 average since 2016. This is in
contrast to the previous 2011-2015 period and the long
term 1979-2018 period. Antarctic summer sea ice
reached its lowest and second lowest extent on record in
2017 and 2018, respectively, with 2017 also being the
second lowest winter extent.
• The amount of ice lost annually from the Antarctic ice
sheet increased at least six-fold, from 40 Gt per year in
1979-1990 to 252 Gt per year in 2009-2017.
• The Greenland ice sheet has witnessed a
considerable acceleration in ice loss since
the turn of the millennium.
• For 2015-2018, the World Glacier
Monitoring Service (WGMS) reference
glaciers indicates an average specific
mass change of −908 mm water
equivalent per year, higher than in all other
five-year periods since 1950.
 Ocean heat and acidity

• More than 90 % of the excess

heat caused by climate change is
stored in the oceans. 2018 had
the largest ocean heat content
values on record measured over
the upper 700 meters, with 2017
ranking second and 2015 third.
• The ocean absorbs around 30% of the
annual anthropogenic emissions of CO2,
thereby helping to alleviate additional
warming. The ecological costs to the
ocean, however, are high, as the absorbed
CO2 reacts with seawater and changes the
acidity of the ocean. There has been an
overall increase in acidity of 26% since the
beginning of the industrial revolution.
 Extreme events
• More than 90 % of the natural
disasters are related to weather. The
dominant disasters are storms and
flooding, which have also led to
highest economic losses. Heatwaves
and drought have led to human
losses, intensification of forest fires
and loss of harvest.
• Heatwaves, which were the deadliest
meteorological hazard in the 2015-2019
period, affecting all continents and
resulting in numerous new temperature
records. Almost every study of a significant
heatwave since 2015 has found the
hallmark of climate change, according to
the report.
 Wildfires
• Wildfires are strongly influenced by
weather and climate phenomena. Drought
substantially increases the risk of wildfire
in most forest regions, with a particularly
strong influence on long-lived fires. The
three largest economic losses on record
from wildfires have all occurred in the last
four years.
• In many cases, fires have led to massive releases of
carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Summer 2019 saw
unprecedented wildfires in the Arctic region. In June
alone, these fires emitted 50 megatons (Mt) of carbon
dioxide into the atmosphere. This is more than was
released by Arctic fires in the same month from 2010 to
2018 put together. There were also massive forest fires
in Canada and Sweden in 2018. There were also
widespread fires in the non-renewable tropical rain
forests in Southern Asia and Amazon, which have had
impacts on the global carbon budget.
 Climate change and extreme
events
• According to the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, over the period
2015 to 2017, 62 of the 77 events reported
show a significant anthropogenic influence
on the event’s occurrence, including
almost every study of a significant
heatwave. An increasing number of
studies are also finding a human influence
on the risk of extreme rainfall events.