Stakeholders’ Perspective on Climate Change

Vulnerability and Adaptation

Strategies in Mountainous Areas of
Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Muhammad Mubeen khadim

(2011-AG-3342)

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Supervisory Committee
Prof. Dr. Khalid Mahmood Ch.
(Supervisor)

Dr. Babar Shahbaz

(Member)

Dr. Khalid Hussain

(Member)

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 OUTLINE
INTRODUCTION

PROBLEM STATEMENT

NEED FOR STUDY

OBJECTIVES

METHODOLOGY

EXPECTED OUTCOME
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Climate Change

 Climate  Weather
 An established pattern of  Day to day variations in
weather over a long the atmospheric condition
period of time

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 Climate Change and Climate Variability

 Climate is typically defined in terms of 30 year means

 Variability on time scales longer than a few decades usually referred to as climatic
change
 Variability on time scales of a few years to a few decades referred to as climatic
variability
 Climate Change Vulnerability: Degree to which people or things are susceptible
to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.
 Possibility of future damage by climate change

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 Indicators of Climate Change
 Air temperature over land is Fluctuating

 Air temperature over oceans is increasing

 Arctic sea ice is decreasing

 Glaciers are melting (GLOF)

 Sea levels are rising

 Humidity is increasing

 Rainfall variability

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 Introduction

 Changes in climate have confronted people all over the world

 Climate change is a matter of changes in weather and matter of survival.
 Developing countries have contributed less in annual global carbon dioxide
emissions but they are suffering most from its effects
(Dazé, 2011)
 Changing in climatic condition increase the frequency and magnitude of some
extreme weather events (flood, droughts, storms and cyclones.
(Field, 2012)
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 Cont..

 Mountains are among the most sensitive ecosystems to climate

change and are being affected at a faster rate than other terrestrial
habitats.
(UNESCO, 2014)

 Mountainous regions of Pakistan need specific intentions on

public perception to climate change for effective decision making
towards mitigation and adaptation.

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 Global Temperature Projections

• Annually and globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature over
the period 1986 to 2005
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• Colours indicate different data sets (IPCC, 2014)
• Annually and globally averaged sea level change relative to the average over
the period 1986 to 2005 in the longest-running dataset
• Colours indicate different data sets 10 (IPCC, 2014)
Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2, green),
methane (CH4, orange) and nitrous oxide (N2O, red) determined from ice core
data (dots) and from direct atmospheric measurements (lines)
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(IPCC, 2014)
 Climate Change-Pakistan

 Pakistan experienced damages worth an estimated 10 billion US$ as a result of the floods of
2010
 Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources
within the next two to three decades.
 Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease.
 Pakistan lost 4 Billion US$ from 1998 to 2018 and 10,000 people died due to extreme
weather events.
 Punjab: increase of 2.8°C day & 2.2°C night temperature for mid-century
(AgMIP-Pakistan)
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Statement of Problem
 Climate change cause multiple threats on economic growth, wider
poverty reduction efforts and the achievements of SDG’s.
 Impact of climate change on agricultural community, little is
known how climate change could influence agricultural
production in mountainous areas
 People of mountainous areas are less adaptive to the effects of
climate change and high exposure to climate related hazards.
 Vulnerable regions of the world like Pakistan has high exposure,
limited assets, rapid and unmanaged population growth, as well
as the likelihood of their mal-adaptation.
(Khan, 2011) 13
 Possible Solution
Adaptation measures deal with the impacts of climate Mitigation addresses the
change on mountainous areas and have the objective of causes of the problem,
reducing the vulnerability of human and natural agro- which involves reducing
ecosystems. green house gases
concentration in the
atmosphere.

In Pakistan, we have low

emissions so scope for
mitigation is limited

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 Study justification
 Rural people of mountainous areas are most vulnerable to climate
change impacts.
 This study will indicate the degree of vulnerability of the rural
community of mountainous areas to the impacts of climate
change on their daily agriculture.
 This study will also provide ground realities about changing
climate conditions in study area.
 The study results will be useful to other researchers, policy
makers and community project development partners.

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 Hypothesis

 Mountainous communities will be more vulnerable to the impacts

of climate change.

 Climate change may have a negative impact on the agriculture.

 Indigenous knowledge may play a vital role to cope the adverse

effects of climate change.

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 Objectives

 To determine the socioeconomic characteristics of the

respondents
 To identify the indigenous knowledge level of stakeholders about
climate change vulnerability
 To probe out the methods and techniques adopted by farmers to
mitigate the effect of climate change
 To find out the sources of information provided by Public or
Private EFS to farmers regarding climate change in study area
 To identify the factors/constraints that creates hindrance in
adopting the climate change strategies
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 To suggest some recommendations about climate change issue
 Methodology
 Research Design:
Multistage Sampling

 Research Area:
Punjab & KPK

 Population:
One district from each province will be selected purposively
 Punjab (Rawalpindi)
 KPK (Mansahra)

 These mountainous areas are more vulnerable to climate change impacts in their
provinces. 18

(ADB, 2017)
 Cont…
 All the stakeholders of both districts will be our population.
 Extension Field Staff (Public + Private)
 Farmers

 Selection of study sample:

 The data will be collected by applying multistage sampling
 At first stage one district from each province of mountainous areas will
be selected purposively.
 Rawalpindi and Mansahra will be selected purposively because these
mountainous districts are most vulnerable in their provinces.

(ADB, 2017)
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 Cont…
 At 2nd stage 2 tehsils from each district will be selected randomly

 Total 4 tehsils will be selected for conducting a research

 2 mountainous tehsils from Rawalpindi (Murree and Kahuta)

 2 tehsils from Mansahra (Balakot and Baffa)

 Due to the limited time and sources, a sample of 400 (100 from
each tehsils) will be drawn from entire population

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Flow chart of sample size determination
Punjab Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa

Rawalpindi Mansahra

Kahota Murree Balakot Baffa

100 100 100 100

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400
 Data Analysis
 Research Tool:
 Data will be collected through interview schedule
 A well structured interview scheduled will be prepared
 Different statistical methods will be used to analyze the data through
SPSS:
 Percentages
 Mean
 Standard deviation,
 Weighted score

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 List of variables
Socio-Economic
Independent Variables Dependent Variable
Factors
Education Climate Change Adaption Floods
Income Temperature Fluctuations
Irregular behavior of
Gender
rains
Age Land Degradation
Changes in river flows

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 Expected Outcome

1 Identification of factors effect Climate Change

2 Capacity building

3 Help decision makers for policy formulation

4 New openings for research

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 THANKS TO
EVERYONE
AND
SUGESSTIONS 
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