Interpreting results

STATING THE HYPOTHESIS

 Statistical tests start with a null and
alternative hypothesis.
 These hypotheses are statements about
the population from which the sample
was drawn.
 The sample data are used to support
either the null or alternative hypothesis.
A given test has one or more standard
null and alternative hypotheses.
 CALCULATING THE TEST
STATISTIC AND P-VALUE
 Test statistics are used to decide
between the null and alternative
hypotheses.
 They can follow one of a variety of
statistical distributions. This makes test
statistics harder to interpret.
 The critical value for deciding between
the null and alternative hypothesis
varies by test.
 A p-value is the probability of obtaining a
sample data set as extreme as the
observed data, given that the null
hypothesis is true.
 While not technically accurate, it is much
easier to think of the p-value as support for
the null hypothesis. Before the analysis, a
threshold is chosen, called alpha or level of
significance. If the calculated p-value is less
than the threshold, typically 0.05, then the
null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the
alternative. Said another way, the test is
statistically significant.
 CONCLUSION AND
INTERPRETATION OF
RESULTS
 The p-value computed by the test leads
you to reject or fail to reject the null
hypothesis. (When the p-value is
reported in red, reject the null
hypothesis.) This conclusion should
then be interpreted in terms of your
project.
 The interpretation will simply state the
conclusion in the context of the
problem.
 EXAMPLE
 In a pain relief study, researchers are
studying the effects of the pain relief
medicine, aspirin, compared to a
placebo. Pain relief scores were recorded
for two groups of people who were given
either aspirin or the placebo. Greater
pain relief scores indicate better pain
relief. The hypothesis to test is that pain
relief will be different for patients given
the aspirin compared to the placebo.
 Let’s write these as statistical hypotheses.

 H0 : μasprin = μplacebo
 Ha : μasprin ≠ μplacebo

 The null hypothesis states that average

pain relief for patients given aspirin is equal
to the average pain relief for patients given
a placebo. The alternative hypothesis
(which is what the research team believes
to be true) states that the average pain
relief for patients given aspirin is not equal
to relief from the placebo.
 Looking at the table of output, the sample mean pain relief for
patients given aspirin is 59.1, which is greater than the average
placebo pain relief of 56.3. These sample statistics are used to
compute a test statistic to make inference about the populations
they represent. That test statistic is computed to be 2.09. The
test used follows a Studentized t distribution with N-2=16
degrees of freedom. The p-value for this test is 0.0527.

To make a conclusion, the p-value is compared to the alpha level of

significance. In this case, alpha = 0.05. The p-value = 0.0527 > 0.05 =
alpha. The test fails to reject the null hypothesis. The test does not show a
significant difference between the mean pain relief for patients given
aspirin and those given a placebo.
 Conclusion: A significant difference does not exist between
the population average pain relief for patients given aspirin
vs. those given a placebo.

 The conclusion is not that the means are equal, but that
they are not significantly different. It is possible that a
difference in average pain relief does exist between the two
groups. One possible reason for this is that the experiment
did not collect enough data (samples). With additional data
points, the statistical power of the test is improved. Another
possibility is that random chance led to a sample with
greater variability or a different mean than what is typical
of the population.