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Smarter Planet:
Airlines
HEADWINDS
While recent forecasts suggests an industry wide recovery is underway, 2008-09 may have
changed the airline industry forever.
HORIZONS
There are now, and will continue to be, growing opportunities to capture and
transform data and to use the resulting information in new and powerful ways.
HOPE
For airlines, those horizons can be leveraged to create new strategies,
capabilities and insights to drive competitiveness and long-term viability.
30%
35%
15%
20%
25%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
40%
AUG 07
SEP 07
OCT 07
NOV 07
DEC 07
Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines
JAN 08
FEB 08
MAR 08
APR 08
MAY 08
AND CARGO GROWTH
JUN 08
JUL 08
AUG 08
SEP 08
OCT 08
NOV 08
DEC 08
JAN 09
FEB 09
ASIA-PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER
MAR 09
APR 09
MAY 09
JUN 09
Asia-Pacific is enjoying robust demand growth.
JUL 09
AUG 09
SEP 09
OCT 09
RPK GROWTH
NOV 09
DEC 09
JAN 110
FEB 10
MAR 10
APR 10
MAY 10
JUN 10
FTK GROWTH
Globally, companies that cut back on business travel are spending once again:
In 2009, 93% reported a reduction in their companies’ travel spending (ACTE Survey, March 2009)
1 in 3 managers expect spending to increase in the next 12 months (AirPlus Business Travel Index, August, 2010)
69% reported reductions in overall travel budget (HBR Survey, July 2009)
6.2% increase in global business travel spending expected in 2010 (NBTA Foundation , August 2010)
And companies are also spending more on premium class air travel:
65% of travel managers stated that they had made changes to their existing
travel policy to reflect specific spending limitations (ACTE Survey, March 2009)
10% of business travelers fly Business Class, compared to 8% in 2009 (AirPlus Business Travel Index , August
2010)
47% reported use of less expensive class of travel (HBR Survey, July 2009)
33% of travel managers expect an increase in spending in 2010 (AirPlus Business Travel Index , August 2010)
But not all markets are expected to enjoy uniformly robust corporate travel recovery:
Japanese manufacturing sector continued to slow in 2H10, putting downward pressure on
corporate travel
Industrial growth in India slowed to in June to just 7.1% which may dampen business travel demand
Despite output growth from several countries in Western Europe, uncertainty about the speed and
shape of the economic recovery in the rest of Europe will depress demand, including demand for
business travel
And some analysts are spelling out the direct impact to airlines:
Gartner: telepresence will replace 2.1 million airline seats per year by 2012 (Gartner, Feb 2009)
Haddock Research: 35% – 40% of airline seats for American business travel are threatened
by telepresence (Haddock Research & Branding, May 2009)
Air travel is also under threat from high-speed rail which is perceived
as more convenient, greener and competitively priced.
EASYJET
US$7B THAI
AMERICAN
Meanwhile, higher fuel and airport services costs may compound the
issue and increase average costs or cost volatility.
3 50 160
Airport service charges
collectively accounted
for nearly 8% of AP
airlines operating costs.
3 00 150
140
2 50
130
2 00
On a global basis, Jet Fuel is 120
down almost 30% from 2008
150 and up 25% from 2009 to 2010
110
100 100
4Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
50
2000 = 100
0
© 2010 IBM Corporation
Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines
$15
$10
$5
2010 forecasts
US$ BILLIONS
are positive
$0
-$5
-$10
-$15
-$20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2008
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2005
2006
2007
2009
2010F
© 2010 IBM Corporation
Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines
10.00%
Emirates Airline
Qantas
5.00% Southwest Airlines
Lufthansa
Cathay Pac ific ANA - All Nippon Airways
0.00%
0.00 5.00 Air Canada 10.00 15.00
British Airways
US Airways
-10.00%
United Airlines
Austrian
1
Data collected from airline annual reports and industry fleet data from IATA, IBM Analysis
2
-15.00% Relative size is a composite measure of 08/09 Revenue and total current seat capacity
3
Trend line is a 5th degree polynomial function that accounts for only a portion of the variation in the data
China Eastern Airlines © 2010 IBM Corporation
Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines
3% or 13% $3 billion
Airlines generate 3% of all greenhouse gas Estimated cost to airlines
emissions. Some say that because aircraft of mishandled baggage.
operate in the upper atmosphere, the impact is
equivalent to 13% of emissions from all
sources.
By 2020 there will be global demand for An Asian airline implemented an enterprise-wide
7 billion air passenger trips. Yet airports and IT issue management solution, ultimately saving
airlines will only have capacity for 6 billion. millions of dollars, reducing risk and maintaining
(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) its reputation as a reliable, premium air carrier.
Demands on airlines will increase over time, driving the need for
new intelligence and insight, greater connectivity and transparency,
and improved customer service.
DRIVERS OF CHANGE CHALLENGES STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES
Population explosion Capacity and congestion Predict demand and
World population is growing and How to meet the growing,
transportation providers will need changing demand efficiently, optimize capacity
to expand capacity to keep up. consistently and profitably? and assets.
Urbanization
As the number and size of cities
grows, pressure on transportation Empowered customers Dramatically improve
systems to move people and Deliver transportation choices in the end-to-end customer
materials between and within the way that end customers value. experience.
those cities grows.
Globalization
The growing interconnectedness Efficient, green operations Improve operational
of the world is driving inter-city How to reduce dependency on efficiency while reducing
and international growth in scarce resources while reducing environmental impact.
demand, with an expectation environmental impact?
of improved service.
Technology
Technology now enables the Safety and security Assure safety and security.
capture and analysis of real-time How to unobtrusively reduce
information about the status, exposure to security risks and
location and condition increase the safety of operations?
of everything.
AIRLINE
INSTRUMENTED
We now have the ability to measure, sense and
see the location and condition of everything.
INTERCONNECTED
People, systems and objects can communicate
and interact with each other in entirely new ways.
INTELLIGENT
We can respond to changes quickly,
accurately and securely—and get better
results by predicting and optimizing
for future events.
+ + =
An opportunity for airlines
to think and act in new ways.
SMART IS: Optimizing capacity and assets SMART IS: Improving the customer experience
Predict demand and optimize assets and Know your customer, interact with that customer in
infrastructure both long-term (e.g. aircraft) and their preferred style and manner, and differentiate
short-term (e.g. dynamically aligning routes, your services to exceed their expectations—
schedules and maintenance). profitably.
SMART IS: Efficient and environmentally sound SMART IS: Assuring safety and security
Improve operational efficiency while reducing negative Assure and continuously enhance safety
environmental impacts by monitoring resource use and and security through non-invasive continual
impact in real time, collaborating with partners and monitoring of journeys, assets and
operators both vertically and horizontally. infrastructure with real-time notification of
risks, issues and safety/security events.
A U.S.-based airline uses a Maximo enterprise A Middle Eastern container shipping firm uses a
asset management and MRO solution to increase fleet of 300 vessels servicing 400 ports worldwide.
reliability and availability while reducing By using advanced analytics to optimize the
maintenance and materials cost. Streamlined location and movement of its 200,000 containers,
maintenance processes have reduced delays and IBM Research helped them cut empty container
decreased material and maintenance costs. movement costs (~10% of turnover) by 10%.
A Southeast Asian port uses IBM ILOG software to
produce their loading plan in less than 30 minutes.
Netherlands Railways uses ILOG software to A European airport was able to predict passenger
weigh 56,000 variables—including available assets volumes up to seven days in advance, with an
and passenger demand—to assemble and accuracy of >90%, using IBM’s PaxFlow Simulator.
schedule over 5,000 trains per day, realizing a 6% The solution enables airports and airlines to optimize
saving in operating efficiency and saving costs according to forecasted service levels, identify
US$28.5M per year. Also improved on-time passenger volume for future business opportunities
performance by 2%, helping capture an additional and minimize passengers’ idle waiting time.
US$57M in fares. © 2010 IBM Corporation
Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines
A major European airport, in partnership with an COSCO, a global shipping firm, engaged IBM to
international airline, reduced mishandled baggage help optimize their supply chain using the Supply
by 60% by implementing an RFID-based baggage Chain Network Optimization Workbench (SNOW).
handling system. They have reduced transfer time As a result of the three month engagement, COSCO
by 22% and operational cost by 40%. consolidated from 100 to 40 distribution centers,
lowered logistics cost by 23% and reduced CO2
emissions by 15%.
Air Canada introduced an innovative application Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings used SOA and a
for the Apple iPhone and iPod Touch, allowing Business Process Management solution to improve
passengers to book flights, download electronic their ability to choreograph the complex movement
boarding passes, check-in, receive flight status of crews, aircraft and cargo, increasing operational
updates and book rental cars and other services. efficiency. They expect an 80% reduction in the
There were over 30,000 downloads of the cost of integrating operations with strategic delivery
application from 47 countries in the first six days. partners, a 50% time savings and a 30%
application development cost savings.
© 2010 IBM Corporation
Let’s build a smarter planet: Airlines
A U.S. hub airport implemented a digital video Through the use of RFID tags on parts and containers,
surveillance solution and a security command and IBM has helped a major aircraft manufacturer intelligently
control center. The system also uses information track aircraft parts throughout the product’s entire life
from biometric handprints and badge readers. The cycle including all maintenance conducted on it and the
system is more effective at recognizing risks and plane in which it is used. The solution has allowed them
alerting the command center. The effective labor to be more responsive to customers, and reduce fleet
cost savings is US$2.2m per year. maintenance down-time without compromising safety.
A major Asian airline implemented an enterprise- Using biometrically enabled access to collect and
wide maintenance and parts management solution to verify traveler identity information as early as
replace approximately 40 systems. The primary possible, a collaborative cross-industry pilot was
objective was to improve maintenance quality and successfully conducted to re-use the information
cross-department collaboration through the use of throughout the remainder of the airport journey,
standard processes, real-time data availability and facilitating easier air travel while maintaining high
reduced opportunity for human error. standards of security and identity management.
Information
Processes
Influencers: Travel service providers
Associations and
universities Airports
Technology
Airlines must conserve cash today, attract and retain loyal customers,
align capacity with demand and innovate for growth.
Predict demand and manage capacity to optimize all assets and infrastructure.
Source: Dr. Howard Rubin – CEO Rubin Systems/Rubin Worldwide, MIT CISR Research Associate, Gartner Senior Advisor
Source: Study of 400 companies during the last recession by Diamond Management and Technology Consultants
Governments
Influencers:
Associations and
universities
To fill this role effectively, smart airlines and airports will apply
intelligence to a spectrum of functions which they perform.
Airlines
Provide comprehensive, integrated
planning, routes and schedules
Offer access to continually updated
Analyze historic and real-time data to
travel and shipment options
predict demand and terminal traffic
Monitor plane and cargo condition
Plan investments and operations
and location in real time
to optimize efficiency, service and
environmental impact
Provide immediate notification
Facilitate multi-modal travel of disruptions and delays
Monitor resource use and
and transport options
Track flows of passengers, environmental impact in real time
baggage, freight in real time
Boost security while removing
friction points Airports
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